geist1223
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Will the other Islands follow Kaua'i?
I would never support any kind of “guarded quarantine facility.” I think (hope!) we learned in WW2 that’s not a good approach, and it’s unAmerican.
Perhaps. But the Governor approved it. Does he support stopping tourism in Kauai? Was he duped?Covid is just an excuse. Many people living in Kauai had wanted to stop tourists long before Covid.
On the other hand, once you jump through them, Hawaii is one of the safest places in the Country to go.I originally had the first 2 weeks of January booked on Kauai...I thought things weren't looking good a few months ago and changed to Maui in May. Now I am beginning to wonder if even that is going to happen or if I want to bother with the hassle of the testing. I understand the locals not wanting to be overrun by covid and at this point am thinking I just need to put Hawaii off until the vaccine has been out and things have settled down. Vacation should be relaxing...not worried about all the hoops you have to jump through.
Every restaurant, theater, stadium, etc., has capacity limits imposed by law for reasons of safety. Restaurants and bars and hotels have more public health regulations than we can imagine that they must comply with every day. That's not new. So our "rights" have always (or for a long time) been regulated. We do not have a "right" to get others sick. And government has always had very broad powers for the protection of public health. The only thing new now is that there is a virus forcing them to exercise those powers.From my personal perspective the entire REQUIREMENT to quarantine is unAmerican. So is the PROHIBITION on restaurants, bars and gyms being open. As well as PROHIBITING venues from having large events. Prohibing more than 10 guests in your home is violating your rights. Also requiring me to wear a mask when I go outside impedes my personal liberty. But I guess I should be glad there are no guards making me quarantine for 14 days when I return to Hawaii!
But there are police who are arresting people and giving fines in Hawaii as well as on Long Island for violating the Coronavirus Rules just like in a totalitarian police state. Hawaii's virus numbers are very good right now. Long Island and all of New York State, which was so good this summer, is going up at an alarming rate. In Kauai they are worried about it turning into what has happened in much of the rest of the country. The question is do our leaders concern themselves with the health and welfare of the populus or do they worry about violating peoples rights. As I said it is all a matter of perspective, degree, and effectiveness. What is going on right now in most of the country seems to be ineffective!
Every restaurant, theater, stadium, etc., has capacity limits imposed by law for reasons of safety. Restaurants and bars and hotels have more public health regulations than we can imagine that they must comply with every day. That's not new. So our "rights" have always (or for a long time) been regulated. We do not have a "right" to get others sick. And government has always had very broad powers for the protection of public health. The only thing new now is that there is a virus forcing them to exercise those powers.
You may be correct that what is going on right now seems ineffective. However, that seems to be no fault of the public health officials. It's entirely in the lap of the people that are not following the guidelines of the public health officials -- often in the name of their "rights" and their "personal freedom," without regard to the rights and freedoms of others.
In view of your above comment I will requote in bold your earlier comment, and add my comment that "It is all a matter of perspective, degree, and effectiveness."
"I would never support any kind of “guarded quarantine facility.” I think (hope!) we learned in WW2 that’s not a good approach, and it’s unAmerican."
I don't condone the internment camps of Japanese Citizens that had done nothing wrong but have their roots in Japan. It smacked of racism along with fear since we didn't intern the German and Italian citizens.(Some of my ancestors would have been in that group)
What I heard was that Kauai was planning to do with bubble resorts and wrist bans which is not that much different than a "guarded quarantine facility". In fact the wrist bans to identify quarantined people smacks of what Nazi Germany did permanently to Jews to identify them in the 1930's.
My perspective on this is if we are going to rely on people using their own best judgement on what they should do to not spread this virus that is giving individuals the ultimate freedom which is preferred. We are personally doing that and it has been sucessful for us so far. However, if we are going to regulate the actions of people to protect public health we need to do it in an EFFECTIVE way since leaving it up to individuals best judgement is certainly not proving to be effective right now.
After writing the above I had an additional thought about what Kauai is planning to do with the bubble resorts and wrist bans. From the perspective that it is targetting ONLY tourists and not returning residents, who the data shows is the main culprit with spreading the virus, it is even more like the discriminating nature of what Nazi Germany did in identifying the Jews in the 1930's. Therefore, while the discriminating aspect of the plan would certainly would put a damper on tourist arrivals it may not even stop the virus coming into the County.
The message they are sending is they don't want me there, but would still appreciate some of my tourist dollars.
Seems to me that Hawaii has something of a personality crisis. They either need to welcome tourists, or choose to realign itself economically to free itself of the dependency on tourism money and stop sending mixed messages. The state will fall into a depression if they depend economically on tourism but repel tourists. Imagine the beachfront hotels of Waikiki and Maui being boarded up and abandoned, looking like inner city Detroit did a number of years back. I’m not sure what the economic engine of Hawaii would be without tourism, but they can’t have it both ways... financial dependence on tourism without welcoming tourists.I hope you are not just realizing this now....having lived there for many years I can tell you that sentiment is a strong underlying feeling of many residents of the state of Hawaii.....when we lived in Kona, to my surprise, I found myself not like tourist either,,,,,,,,cheers!!
We own quite a few on Kauai. I would be upset, if they weren't in Wyndham points.It is their prerogative to keep the Kauai closed. But in the meantime they are collecting taxes from people who cannot use their homes, condos and especially their timeshare. If I owned a timeshare in Kauai I would really sue the government for the value of the property taxes. Their is no justification for paying when the goal of the local government is to keep the units empty. It is a matter of fairness and Hawaii has gone further than any other state. Those that think the state is doing the right thing should put their money where their mouth is. I do not care if some people can stay there 8 or 12 weeks. Most owners cannot. The average Marriott owner has 1.5 weeks.
That's exactly why I dropped Kauai from my travel plans for at least the next year. The message they are sending is they don't want me there, but would still appreciate some of my tourist dollars.
Seems like this will drive down the tourist for sure, probably across all the islands, not just Kauai. But you will have the local residents working in the resort bubbles then going back to their homes outside the bubble.
Maybe I am wrong, but I don't really see this idea as successful.
Seems to me that Hawaii has something of a personality crisis. They either need to welcome tourists, or choose to realign itself economically to free itself of the dependency on tourism money and stop sending mixed messages. The state will fall into a depression if they depend economically on tourism but repel tourists. Imagine the beachfront hotels of Waikiki and Maui being boarded up and abandoned, looking like inner city Detroit did a number of years back. I’m not sure what the economic engine of Hawaii would be without tourism, but they can’t have it both ways... financial dependence on tourism without welcoming tourists.
Kauai has the smallest hospital capacity of any of the counties---and it is not close. Being more cautious than the others strikes me as reasonable, as they have very little room for error there.That's exactly why I dropped Kauai from my travel plans for at least the next year. The message they are sending is they don't want me there, but would still appreciate some of my tourist dollars.
I mean more broadly, not during COVID. The message I am hearing from some, at least, is that they don't want the tourists COVID or no COVID. They just don't want them. But they have an economy and budget that depends on tourism dollars and taxes.I don’t know about the mixed messages part. Hawaii has been very consistent about either not allowing travel here or making it very difficult to travel here from the start.
I mean more broadly, not during COVID. The message I am hearing from some, at least, is that they don't want the tourists COVID or no COVID. They just don't want them. But they have an economy and budget that depends on tourism dollars and taxes.
There is a lot of data there, but two key points, one you mentioned and one you did not. The mentioned one is that up to 25% are coming in without a pre-flight test. Well, from a data analysis standpoint, you have to exclude those when evaluating the effectiveness of a pre-flight test at screening out positives. Positives in the exempt travelers does not reflect a failure of the pre-testing program. It reflects the OBVIOUS... if there's no screening you'll get infected people.Press Conference -Careful analysis of the Safe Travels Surveillance Testing Program shows between 7 and 15 per 1000 (1 of 66 to 148) travelers are arriving undetected.
There will be a press conference Monday November 30th 5pm to answer questions from the media and state and county leadership.
Analysis follows.
The state's Safe Travels and Surveillance Testing Programs are not working as planned, and the data is far more alarming than has been presented.
The state predicted that only 1 in 1000 infected would get through a single preflight test screen. However, the surveillance test data from Oahu, Maui and Kaua'i combined shows that 7 out of 1000 (1 in 148) are infected, and on Kauai, alone, 15 in 1,000 (1 in 66). Many times what was predicted.
Additionally, 20-25% of incoming travelers receive a preflight test exemption. Not an insignificant percent, but close to quarter of all inbound arrivals. This is unsafe.
The state's "Surveillance Testing Program” was to test 10% of travelers on day 4 or later, over a period of 60 days. Now it is being cut short.
At the Governor's November 19th press conference, we learned that only 1339 surveillance tests were actually conducted on Oahu (616), Maui (392) and Kauai (331). That is less than 1/2 of 1 percent, not 10%.
A small number of arriving travelers were sent emails inviting them to take the free surveillance test. Had more emails been sent, the study could have easily collected ten times the data. But it appears the Hawaii island data would show lower positives, and so was inapporpriately inserted instead.
At that November 19th press conference we were told that there were only 4 positives (3 on Oahu, 1 on Maui, 0 on Kaua’i) of the 1339 - or 1 of 334 were positive - three times what was predicted.
However, Kaua'i's Department of Health shared that 5 of their 331 surveillance tests were in fact positive, not zero. Or 1 out of 66 travelers.
The Lt. Governor's office privately acknowledged their error and confirmed that not zero, but 5 were positive out of the 331 Kaua'i tests, but has offered no explanation for this misinformation.
Despite multiple interviews since, this error has not been publicly corrected and the true number of Hawaii island tests done as part of the surveillance study methodology (rather than Mayor Kim’s arrival testing) has not been shared.
On November 24th, a press release was issued saying the Safe Travels Surveillance Testing Program has been a clear success, and is now being wrapped up three weeks early, not the 60 days as promised. https://tinyurl.com/hawaiirisk2
Toward the bottom of that press release we learn that 2.2 out of 1,000 travelers were found to be infected but not detected, or 1 out of 454 positives. Twice what was envisioned.
So, how did we get from 1 out of 454 statewide to from 1 of 66 on Kaua’i infected? Because Kaua’i data is not corrupted.
At the November 19th press conference, state leadership chose to include the 15,931 same day arrival antigen tests that Mayor Harry Kim did on the Big island. This violates basic scientific testing principles.
The Big Island's arrival day antigen tests don't come close to meeting the two most critical parameters of the "Safe Travels Surveillance Test Program," which were:
1) A gold standard highly sensitive PCR test.
2) A test on day 4 or later (minimum time necessary for the viral load to replicate to detectable levels).
Administering a proven to be less sensitive antigen test upon arrival, after a more sensitive PCR test was given, in some case hours, but even if 1-2 days earlier, is designed to fail. It can not find many new positives, and will detect absolutely no one infected during travel.
It would be like taking a high quality pregnancy test, getting a negative result, and then trying again with a lower quality pregnancy test a few hours later.
Once a study methodology is set, it is inexcusable to change the methodology midway if the results are not what was anticipated - unless an ethical issue arises. The only ethical issue arising is that given how surprisingly high the numbers are, there is an obligation to immediately alert the public to these results, so the Safe Travels program can be paused.
With the number of infected between 7 and 15 per 1000 travelers, we can assume every large inbound flight will have at least one infected passenger. New studies from Europe, Asia, and New Zealand show that transmissions are occurring on less than half full airplanes, even with mask wearing.
https://tinyurl.com/hawaiirisk3 and https://tinyurl.com/hawaiirisk4
Including the Big Island's poorly timed, lower quality day of arrival antigen tests, it dramatically skews the results.
A clear look at the November 19th data shows the obvious bias.
Oahu - 616 tests - PCR - Day 4 - 3 positive results, unconfirmed.
Maui - 392 tests - PCR - Day 4 - 1 positive result, unconfirmed.
Kauai - 331 tests - PCR - Day 4 - 5 positive result, confirmed by DOH
Big island ~ 15,931 tests - Antigen - Day 1 - 23 positive results, unconfirmed. No 4th day PCR test count has been provided.
This alarming data, and the lack of fidelity in testing and reporting, makes a strong case for why all islands should consider opting out.
This is also likely why a county District Health Officer last week suggested that the entire state pauses the program through the month of December. https://tinyurl.com/hawaiirisk1
The Safe Travels program is allowing in many times more infected travelers than predicted - and certainly planting the seeds of community spread where none existed before - an unacceptable tradeoff.
Now, with the number of active cases on the mainland roughly doubling since opening, our risk has substantially increased.
A comprehensive covid response primer:
https://darraghocarrollmd.medium.com/how-hawaii-can-get-coronavirus-right-in-twelve-steps-269555b5892e
Well, a vocal but small minority, or outlier views, are not, in my mind, relevant.There are definitely some here that don’t want tourists and I can’t put a number on them. I am out working everyday and interact with other people working. My interactions with those people tell me they want tourists back. But on the other hand, the people who don’t want tourists back may be staying at home and are not out and about so I am not hearing from them.
I would think it’s a mixed bag just like many other contentious issues.
Well, a vocal but small minority, or outlier views, are not, in my mind, relevant.
What I'm getting at is that it is counter-productive to be tourist unfriendly in an environment where tourism is necessary. It's like the owner of a bar leading a PR campaign against drinking.My point was, we don’t know if the number is large or small. I haven’t seen any studies on how many people here don’t want any tourists ever again.
I remember living extremely close to the Wisconsin Dells and many people talked about not liking so many tourists around but many had jobs depending on them.
What I'm getting at is that it is counter-productive to be tourist unfriendly in an environment where tourism is necessary. It's like the owner of a bar leading a PR campaign against drinking.
Here's an interesting story/article on the topic.
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Will Hawaii Finally Be Able To Break Its Dependence On Tourism?
The state is about to reopen its tourism industry, the heart of Hawaii's economic engine. Is it time to find another way forward?www.civilbeat.org
And the article below states, "A study conducted in 2014 and released in March 2015, shows there hasn’t been a dramatic shift in how locals feel about Hawaii tourism. Asked to rate their overall perception of the state’s tourism industry, about 1,600 Hawaii residents surveyed generated an average ranking of 8 on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being extremely favorable. "
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Hawaii Visitors and Residents Whipsaw in 1,000 Comments
Hawaii still on a wild ride.beatofhawaii.com