Dan -- I think you place way to much faith in the concept that WKV is not going to have huge maint fee increases in the future.
I actually think WKV also had large fee increases over the years (I think it's about 50% increase since 2004 - certainly in line with Starwood's internal CPI metrics...) and I can only hope they don't get out of control.
I do however think that resale values will remain more stable at WKV in general and here is why:
I view the resale value composed of two components. The first is the value you get from using the VOI relative to "comparable" accomodations (hotels, direct rentals, VRBO etc.) This is why many timeshares in Orlando have low valuations - because MFs are not low enough compared to alternatives. As MFs rise compare to comparable alternatives, this component of the resale price drops. We saw this recently with 30% WKORV resale price declines due to the tax increase.
The second component to the resale value is the value you get from the option of "trading up". This component of the price explains why mandatory resort SVV (2BR Lockoff with MFs = $1600) still sells for $3K-$4K while comparable accomodations at voluntary resort SVR (2BR MFs = $900) have zero resale value. With SVV you can trade into a 1BR in Hawaii or possibly into a 2BR at HRA in the summer or fall.
Now you can start thinking how MF increases affect resale values in various places. For example, everything else unchanged, an MF increase at WKORV will lower resale values at WKORV for reasons discussed above. But what is less obvious is that it can actually
increase resale values at WKV because the option to trade to Hawaii can now be perceived to be more valuable. Conversely, an increase in MFs at WKV would reduce resale values at WKV both because usage is less attracive and the option to trade to Hawaii may be perceived less attractive.
Arguably, the most desired (and expensive in terms of MFs) resorts WKORV/N, HRA, WSJ are not bought to be traded internally so the option to trade is not that valuable. The main value is from usage. Increasing MFs erode the resale value (our equity). At resorts like WKV and SVV, the option to trade internally has substantial value, at least the way the market prices it. I would in fact argue that there is no value in buying SVV to use... the entire resale value of SVV is based on the option to trad within SVN becuase comparable SVR, which has much lower MFs, cannot be sold for even $1. Even at WKV I would maintain that most or all of the resale value comes from this option. Otherwise why would SDO sell for 10% of WKV price? WKV has 50% higher MFs offset by a nicer resort but if WKV was voluntary it would probably sell at similar prices to SDO in the respective season.
So if MFs at WKV continue to go up it affects its resale value negatively, but that should be offset at least in part if MFs at other resorts also go up... Putting it a different way - if MFs at WKORV and WKV go up 50% over the next few years they will be $3800 at WKORV and $2000 at WKV; my argument is that WKORV will lose a lot more in resale value (both in percentage and dollars) than WKV. Of course if fees are in a death spiral and SVN ultimately implodes none of this matters...