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Marriott to Spin Off Timeshare Business [merged]

OldPantry

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I'm surprised if this was important to you that you would not have looked at the documents.
...
you bought a share of a property in perpetuity, and that is what you have. Even then, there were disclosures that there was no guarantee of value in the future.
Yes, I did read the documents. And of course, there were no written guarantees of future value. The same applies to virtually any investment you'll ever make. BUT, you don't buy stocks or bonds, and mentally write the principal off the day you buy. Similarly, the Marriott salespeople talked (and talked, and talked) stable or increasing value, and most people (including me) swallowed that line.
I truly doubt you were willing to instantly chalk this investment off either. I suspect the "life style" analysis came considerably later.
By the way, make sure your children actually want this gift; maybe they'll beg you not to burden them with the Marriott lifestyle.
 

wof45

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Yes, I did read the documents. And of course, there were no written guarantees of future value. The same applies to virtually any investment you'll ever make. BUT, you don't buy stocks or bonds, and mentally write the principal off the day you buy. Similarly, the Marriott salespeople talked (and talked, and talked) stable or increasing value, and most people (including me) swallowed that line.
I truly doubt you were willing to instantly chalk this investment off either. I suspect the "life style" analysis came considerably later.
By the way, make sure your children actually want this gift; maybe they'll beg you not to burden them with the Marriott lifestyle.

actually, we have never thought of TS as an investment. It was always about vacations. And my daughter told us last Fall at MFC that she wants the weeks that we have at Sabal Palms.
 

TJCNewYork

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nothing is ever as it seems.
we bought our second unit at Sabal Palms around Y2K. We did a tour at grande vista, and told the sales person that we really wanted a second unit at Sabal Palms. She had one for us, at about the original price, which was about half the price of a MGV unit.

We preferred the small resort, with use of the hotel facilities and location by Disney -- and half the price locked it. We couldn't really understand why someone would rather pay the MGV price.

this was also about having an additional week of vacation, and not as an investment and not to trade for something else. everyone has their own dream.

actually, we have never thought of TS as an investment. It was always about vacations. And my daughter told us last Fall at MFC that she wants the weeks that we have at Sabal Palms.

We've stayed at Sabal Palms many times and love the resort for all the same reasons! We delayed purchasing because of the assessment. The most recent refurbishment is amazing and underscores what can happen when COA, BoD and management coalesce.

Like you, we're looking to expand ownership, occupy at a home resort and we were very disappointed by the announcement to shift to a points-based model.

Staying on-topic, although long overdue, a more nimble spinco will be able to react to changes in the market more rapidly. And, given the established popularity of weeks-based home resorts and usage options like MRP and the mixed reviews of DC points, spinco could develop a more integrated hybrid model.

Regaining it's legs in the weeks-based market won't be difficult for spinco at all. If spinco can engage legacy owners and marshall COA BoDs towards exacting brand standards displayed in the Sabal Palms refurb, then I think spinco will be very successful.
 

TJCNewYork

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Expanded Breakdown & Analysis

Wow! Thanks to everyone for expanding the breakdown and analysis. A couple of days go by and this thread is in a different place. You've got me engaged. Thanks!

There are many meaningful contributions to this discussion about spinco. Regards the thought of breaking up the thread into chunks that others can easily wrap their arms around, I'm for it. Combined w/Google, the TUG search engine makes it easy to find content for cross-referencing, so segmenting the content into different buckets may make TUG more useful, IMO.

If I were a TUG newbie or let's say a potential spinco investor searching for information, getting through this thread would present a challenge. Splitting the thread up may actually heighten TUG's importance as a source of information towards spinco's competitive advantage.

Just my 2 cents.

Cheers!
 

SueDonJ

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Yes, I did read the documents. And of course, there were no written guarantees of future value. The same applies to virtually any investment you'll ever make. BUT, you don't buy stocks or bonds, and mentally write the principal off the day you buy. Similarly, the Marriott salespeople talked (and talked, and talked) stable or increasing value, and most people (including me) swallowed that line.
I truly doubt you were willing to instantly chalk this investment off either. I suspect the "life style" analysis came considerably later.
By the way, make sure your children actually want this gift; maybe they'll beg you not to burden them with the Marriott lifestyle.

This is getting to be a rehash of the same old TUG discussion where resale buyers will never be able to understand direct buyers and vice versa. None of us is ever going to change the others' minds.

We really did purchase direct with the anticipation that we were purchasing a lifestyle. They are the single reason that we have incorporated regular vacations into our lives, and without them we would probably not force ourselves to vacation the way we do. The resale mag that we carried in to the presentation was proof that we knew about the lack of financial protection, but we wanted to buy specific resort/unit/view/season intervals and at the time they were not available on the external resale market for a substantial savings. Could we have waited for prices to come down, knowing that history was on our side? Sure, but we wanted to start using Marriotts immediately. Could we have rented from Marriott and not gotten involved with ownership? Sure, but those rental prices did not constitute a savings over the life of the ownership. Could we have rented direct from owners? Sure, but we'd prefer to deal direct with Marriott and not get into private rentals. (It's a preference we still have.)

We were much more driven by the comparison between the specific Marriott intervals we purchased and the Hilton Head oceanfront condo whole-ownership that we were considering, as opposed to the direct-purchased Marriott intervals we purchased and the possibility of exchanging/renting to get the same through other less-expensive options. When/if the time comes to get rid of them, we'll be very surprised if they have no value but we don't have a pre-set number at which we'll consider them a successful investment. They work for the purpose we purchased them, they are a success.

About comparing stocks and bonds with Marriott direct-purchases, and how each vehicle spells out that there isn't a guarantee of value with the purchase? Stocks, bonds, etc. are a financial investment, they have no other purpose or use. Buying non-performing stocks and bonds is akin to throwing your money away because you're getting no value from your investment. Timeshares are different. Their use value - the actual vacations you can take with them - is their stated purpose. Trying to make a comparison between them to bolster a financial value argument for timeshares is a huge stretch, IMO.

I do agree with you, OldPantry, when it comes to our heirs inheriting our timeshares. It's not the ideal situation and I hope that we're lucky enough to be able to take care of things in advance the way our children would want. But life intervenes, so we've taught them how to use or get rid of the timeshares if the worst happens and we're not able to do it for them. And, mstoyanov, like you we would not be comfortable at all with holding a mortgage for timeshares - but that's a personal preference and it's completely understandable that others can and do manage the responsibility of mortgages with no problems.
 

OldPantry

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We really did purchase direct with the anticipation that we were purchasing a lifestyle. They are the single reason that we have incorporated regular vacations into our lives, and without them we would probably not force ourselves to vacation the way we do. The resale mag that we carried in to the presentation was proof that we knew about the lack of financial protection, but we wanted to buy specific resort/unit/view/season intervals and at the time they were not available on the external resale market for a substantial savings. Could we have waited for prices to come down, knowing that history was on our side? Sure, but we wanted to start using Marriotts immediately.
...
When/if the time comes to get rid of them, we'll be very surprised if they have no value but we don't have a pre-set number at which we'll consider them a successful investment. They work for the purpose we purchased them, they are a success.
...
Stocks, bonds, etc. are a financial investment, they have no other purpose or use. Buying non-performing stocks and bonds is akin to throwing your money away because you're getting no value from your investment. Timeshares are different. Their use value - the actual vacations you can take with them - is their stated purpose. Trying to make a comparison between them to bolster a financial value argument for timeshares is a huge stretch, IMO.
Yes, I think we're talking past each other a bit. Believe me, I do get the lifestyle point of view. I feel it every time I go to Ko Olina, Waiohai or Newport. My main point is, simply, that this lifestyle has always been available to us anyway, either by owner rentals (smart, but inconvenient), or by renting from Marriott (convenient, EXPENSIVE, but still much cheaper than the true cost of ownership). Is it really a huge stretch to suggest that you could have financed the lifestyle by investing the money differently?

It appears to me that even the most choice club weeks are still freely available, if you give yourself a reasonable planning window. I suspect that's always been true. I addressed that recently in an analysis of availability at Ko Olina for its top prime weeks (everything available now from Redweek AND Marriott except for ocean view New Year's). In each case, the prime week can be had cheaper than via new points, and certainly cheaper than developer purchase once decay is factored in.

The enjoyment I feel when I use my developer week helps me cope, but I feel altogether better when I occupy my resales. They're still expensive, but not utterly exorbitant. As to bum investments, well, they suck, no matter what they are. I CAN say I've never experienced a long-term loss on an investment grade bond (lucky, I'm sure), and I went into my timeshare with a similar expectation. I was encouraged to think it was equivalent to a blue chip stock or A-rated bond in safety. Apparently, you were far more realistic than I was, recognized how flimsy the purchase was as an investment, and still wanted the deal. Do you really think most folks were that sophisticated? If they weren't, then they have a legitimate gripe, even though they can't sue. The Marriott salespeople clearly knew better, and boldly misrepresented the safety of the "investment" they were selling, knowing that the reams of documentation covered their rear ends.

Now, going forward: there's a new rotten investment being offered to the unsophisticated: expensive, illiquid trust points with severe restrictions on the period of usage and transferability, combined with a real possibility that folks will be unable to get into the clubs they want in the seasons they prefer. Is it unseemly of me to point this out, or to emphasize better ways to enjoy the lifestyle?

As to that lifestyle, I do love it, really! (See, I began and ended on a positive note!)
 

Millisara

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Should I still buy resale

I do not own with Marriott and am thinking of purchasing a Marriott resale either in Boston or Hilton Head. Should I wait until the dust settles? How can determine the week value? Is Platinum period the most desired and then Gold? I've tried to get that information from the Marriott site by looking at the individual timeshare description but can't seem to find it.Thanks for replies.
 

OldPantry

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I do not own with Marriott and am thinking of purchasing a Marriott resale either in Boston or Hilton Head. Should I wait until the dust settles? How can determine the week value? Is Platinum period the most desired and then Gold? I've tried to get that information from the Marriott site by looking at the individual timeshare description but can't seem to find it.Thanks for replies.
I personally think the unsettled state of affairs works to your advantage in negotiating a resale. While the future trajectory of pricing is unpredictable, it's pretty clear that things have come down a long way. As to quality, I'm a pretty firm believer that prime stuff is far safer than the more marginal time slots. When you buy platinum, you're likely to have better rental and resale potential. You'll also have access to the weeks you actually want to use. While a resale down the line should definitely NOT be your goal (other non timeshare investments are probably much more promising on that score), the fact that you're buying cheap gives you some downside protection.

As for accurate information, you can find much of what you need at redweek.com or myresortnetwork.com. Weeks calendars, which show the various seasons (gold, platinum, etc) are available at the Marriott vacation club site (vacationclub.com), although you might have to be an owner to see them. Still, redweek listings usually specify the season, and often mention the weeks that apply to that season. If not, you can always ask the seller. If you do decide to buy, you'll definitely want to use a reputable escrow service, and title insurance is a very good idea, too.
 
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SueDonJ

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I do not own with Marriott and am thinking of purchasing a Marriott resale either in Boston or Hilton Head. Should I wait until the dust settles? How can determine the week value? Is Platinum period the most desired and then Gold? I've tried to get that information from the Marriott site by looking at the individual timeshare description but can't seem to find it.Thanks for replies.

I don't follow resales, it's hard to know exactly when to expect the "dust to settle" with all the recent changes to Marriott timeshares, and I wouldn't be comfortable telling anyone that now is or isn't a good time to buy. But ...

I grew up in Boston and now live just south, have been going into the city all my life and still haven't seen everything. Marriott's Custom House sits in a perfect spot for touristy-type things both near and far - it's an easy city to explore on foot and the connections you'll want for venturing out are all right there.

Generally within Marriott's system the Platinum season is more in-demand than Gold but depending on what you like to do, you may actually prefer Gold. At Hilton Head Plat is high summer and Gold is spring and fall. We like Gold better there, with less humidity but still warm enough to enjoy the beach. This is TUGger dioxide45's link to all of the resort calendars, it should help you get an idea of which season at each resort will work best for you.
 

SueDonJ

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... Now, going forward: there's a new rotten investment being offered to the unsophisticated: expensive, illiquid trust points with severe restrictions on the period of usage and transferability, combined with a real possibility that folks will be unable to get into the clubs they want in the seasons they prefer. Is it unseemly of me to point this out, or to emphasize better ways to enjoy the lifestyle? ...

Nope, not unseemly at all. :) I think we all agree that until Marriott fleshes out the resale questions with respect to DC Points, it's just not possible to make an informed, educated decision whether or not to purchase them regardless of how much discretionary income someone is willing to spend.

I like how the new product can be used just as much as I like the old product - they each have their advantages. I won't say that we'll never buy DC Points because down the road when the questions are answered we may find that Points work perfectly for what we want. But it's always been difficult for me to say to anyone that they should buy a Marriott timeshare - actually I stay away from telling anyone to buy anything that requires an ongoing financial commitment. I can talk someone's ear off for hours telling them how our timeshares work, though, and how happy we are with our purchases. Any of those conversations that I've had, I do mention that although we purchased direct there are many others who are very happy with their resale purchases.
 

chc818

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$1.5 Billion of Marriott timeshare inventory

below was copied from another internet source:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/15/uk-marriottinternational-idUSLNE71E03N20110215

http://news.marriott.com/2011/02/ma...business-and-reports-fourth-quarter-2010.html

Some simple math showing how big Marriott timeshare glut is...

FACT: $1,500,000,000 worth of timeshare inventory mentioned in the above articles.

GUESS: average size 2bd/2ba unit is 1200 Square Feet.
GUESS: average RETAIL CONSTRUCTION cost of the unit is $300/SF (you can bet Marriott paid much less than $300/SF which would make the inventory glut even higher!! But we'll use RETAIL CONSTRUCTiON numbers.)
Therefore $300/SF x 1200 SF = $360,000 per unit
Therefore $360,000 per unit / 52 deeded weeks = about $6923 per deeded timeshare week (ie. which is the cost basis for Marriott for each week they try to sell based on the RETAIL CONSTRUCTION price of $300/SF. The cost basis is only HALF that if SF cost is more realistically $150/SF).

Then, $1,500,000,000 / $6923 per week = 216,669 timeshare weeks in their
inventory glut. (If the SF price is really $150/SF, then you would DOUBLE the
number of timeshare weeks in their inventory glut !!)

There are about 71 Marriott Timeshare properties according to the aritcles.
Therefore, 216,669 timeshare weeks / 71 Marriott Timeshare properties = 3051 average number of timeshare units to sell per property location. (Remember to DOUBLE that if the SF price is really a more realistic $150/SF cost to Marriott !!)

This is why one shouldn't pay $25,000 for one week ( $25,000 x 52 weeks =
$1,300,000 value per unit; but TUGGERS KNOW THAT ALREADY !!). Gee, even $7500 for one week is more than their RETAIL CONSTRUCTION price !
 

equitax

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While I agree that Dev Inventory is Overpriced..

You need to calcualte the soft costs - ie carrying the inventory prior to occupancy, which is huge.

Add to this the value of common areas (for which no estimates exist in the post)

TS exist because most cant /wont / dont want to own 52 weeks, and you pay for the service of someone managing it - it is a hefty premium, but in no way can this be compared to building a regular condo with 300 to 400 units / owners and maybe 10% common space...:wall:


below was copied from another internet source:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/15/uk-marriottinternational-idUSLNE71E03N20110215

http://news.marriott.com/2011/02/ma...business-and-reports-fourth-quarter-2010.html

Some simple math showing how big Marriott timeshare glut is...

FACT: $1,500,000,000 worth of timeshare inventory mentioned in the above articles.

GUESS: average size 2bd/2ba unit is 1200 Square Feet.
GUESS: average RETAIL CONSTRUCTION cost of the unit is $300/SF (you can bet Marriott paid much less than $300/SF which would make the inventory glut even higher!! But we'll use RETAIL CONSTRUCTiON numbers.)
Therefore $300/SF x 1200 SF = $360,000 per unit
Therefore $360,000 per unit / 52 deeded weeks = about $6923 per deeded timeshare week (ie. which is the cost basis for Marriott for each week they try to sell based on the RETAIL CONSTRUCTION price of $300/SF. The cost basis is only HALF that if SF cost is more realistically $150/SF).

Then, $1,500,000,000 / $6923 per week = 216,669 timeshare weeks in their
inventory glut. (If the SF price is really $150/SF, then you would DOUBLE the
number of timeshare weeks in their inventory glut !!)

There are about 71 Marriott Timeshare properties according to the aritcles.
Therefore, 216,669 timeshare weeks / 71 Marriott Timeshare properties = 3051 average number of timeshare units to sell per property location. (Remember to DOUBLE that if the SF price is really a more realistic $150/SF cost to Marriott !!)

This is why one shouldn't pay $25,000 for one week ( $25,000 x 52 weeks =
$1,300,000 value per unit; but TUGGERS KNOW THAT ALREADY !!). Gee, even $7500 for one week is more than their RETAIL CONSTRUCTION price !
 

abdibile

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Is the 1.5 bln really based on construction cost?

I always thought it was retail price of this unsold inventory, so more like

$1.5 bln / $25.000 = 60.000 unsold weeks.
 

windje2000

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Is the 1.5 bln really based on construction cost?

I always thought it was retail price of this unsold inventory, so more like

$1.5 bln / $25.000 = 60.000 unsold weeks.

Inventory carrying value is as a general rule based on the lower of cost or market.

It is NOT carried at retail prices.
 

dioxide45

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Inventory carrying value is as a general rule based on the lower of cost or market.

It is NOT carried at retail prices.

Think if one had an inventory of 100 t-shirts and bought them for $2 each but is selling them for $10. They only have $200 in inventory, not $1000.
 

jlepstein1

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Think if one had an inventory of 100 t-shirts and bought them for $2 each but is selling them for $10. They only have $200 in inventory, not $1000.
Another way of looking at this is that you have an inventory of 100 T shirts which you purchased for $2 a piece. You've advertised them for sale at $10 a piece. But in the marketlace your competitors are selling exactly the same T shirts for $1 a piece. Your inventory should be written down to market, i.e. $1 a piece. So even if Marriott is carrying these units at construction cost, the liklhood is that the real market value (at auction on Ebay) for many of them is close to zero. So the $1.5 Billion is pure fantasy.
 

windje2000

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Another way of looking at this is that you have an inventory of 100 T shirts which you purchased for $2 a piece. You've advertised them for sale at $10 a piece. But in the marketlace your competitors are selling exactly the same T shirts for $1 a piece. Your inventory should be written down to market, i.e. $1 a piece. So even if Marriott is carrying these units at construction cost, the liklhood is that the real market value (at auction on Ebay) for many of them is close to zero. So the $1.5 Billion is pure fantasy.

Your points are well taken, but Marriott is selling points, not the weeks seen on ebay. Are they are taking the position that they are selling a different product? Probably.

Have they set the terms of sale for points buyers to effectively eliminate any form of secondary market resales and independent sales price points? Yup.

Do you think there's a reason for that?
 

jlepstein1

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Your points are well taken, but Marriott is selling points, not the weeks seen on ebay. Are they are taking the position that they are selling a different product? Probably.

Have they set the terms of sale for points buyers to effectively eliminate any form of secondary market resales and independent sales price points? Yup.

Do you think there's a reason for that?
That may indeed be the driver of the decision to move to points, i.e. that they hope it may enable them to avoid the need to write down their inventory. However, I suspect that external accountants and securities regulators will have a tough time approving a balance sheet which values the points at the listed sales price rather than the true market. And the analysts will make mincemeat out of Spinco's stock once they understand the valuation methodology for the unsold weeks (points). The banks have the same problem, i.e. they are holding billions of dollars worth of delinquent or foreclosed mortgages and they play "extend and pretend" games to avoid writedowns. They can do this for a while, but eventually the chickens come home to roost.
 

windje2000

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That may indeed be the driver of the decision to move to points, i.e. that they hope it may enable them to avoid the need to write down their inventory. However, I suspect that external accountants and securities regulators will have a tough time approving a balance sheet which values the points at the listed sales price rather than the true market. And the analysts will make mincemeat out of Spinco's stock once they understand the valuation methodology for the unsold weeks (points). The banks have the same problem, i.e. they are holding billions of dollars worth of delinquent or foreclosed mortgages and they play "extend and pretend" games to avoid writedowns. They can do this for a while, but eventually the chickens come home to roost.

Historically, building costs represented 40% of the sales dollar. In other words, take the cost of building timeshare and multiply by 2.5 to get the selling price. That leaves a lot of room to maneuver.

Recall also that the inventory on the books was haircut about $700 million in 2009.
 

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I do not own with Marriott and am thinking of purchasing a Marriott resale either in Boston or Hilton Head. Should I wait until the dust settles? How can determine the week value? Is Platinum period the most desired and then Gold? I've tried to get that information from the Marriott site by looking at the individual timeshare description but can't seem to find it.Thanks for replies.
When I bailed on Marriott a number of years ago the last Resort I sold was my fixed Week at Monarch on HHI. The reason was that it was fixed (not floating or points) and could be traded through both RCI and II. I don't know if this is still the case but if you are interested in HHI, it is something you might want to check out.

George
 

davidn247

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That may indeed be the driver of the decision to move to points, i.e. that they hope it may enable them to avoid the need to write down their inventory. However, I suspect that external accountants and securities regulators will have a tough time approving a balance sheet which values the points at the listed sales price rather than the true market. And the analysts will make mincemeat out of Spinco's stock once they understand the valuation methodology for the unsold weeks (points).


Historically, building costs represented 40% of the sales dollar. In other words, take the cost of building timeshare and multiply by 2.5 to get the selling price. That leaves a lot of room to maneuver.

Recall also that the inventory on the books was haircut about $700 million in 2009.

Both statements are correct.

It is clear that, before creating the Trust, Marriott cleaned up their books to statisfy with valuation/auditing rules.

First, the haircut ($700 mio) on the inventory (valued at building cost like the practice will say) and then moving it into the Trust (which is outside of their spinco company). I suspect that the only thing that remains on their books are a huge amount of points/ownership of the Trust (and maybe some lands for future developments, if any).

We can guess that the value per point in their books is approx. $3 to $3.5 per point. As long as they can show that they are selling points at $9-10, they are good.
 

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Both statements are correct.

It is clear that, before creating the Trust, Marriott cleaned up their books to statisfy with valuation/auditing rules.

First, the haircut ($700 mio) on the inventory (valued at building cost like the practice will say) and then moving it into the Trust (which is outside of their spinco company). I suspect that the only thing that remains on their books are a huge amount of points/ownership of the Trust (and maybe some lands for future developments, if any).

We can guess that the value per point in their books is approx. $3 to $3.5 per point. As long as they can show that they are selling points at $9-10, they are good.
Agree.
I agree. But can they sell points for $9-10? I doubt it. Sure, they can sell a few. But sticking to that price in the age of Ebay, at at time when financing is very tight, and in the absence of any clarification about resale, means that their sales volume will tank.
They remind me of developers (and homeowners) who keep advertising homes for sale in 2011 with 2007 prices. The game can go on only so long, and then they capitulate.
 

Fastfitz

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No worries

I don't understand why anyone would believe Marriott is getting out of the timeshare business. In the annual report letter to shareholders it specifically states that "Marriott" in the name of the new company. Why would the Marriott family risk their name with a product they didn't believe in? MVCI will be better positioned to grow and serve it's members.
 

OldPantry

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I don't understand why anyone would believe Marriott is getting out of the timeshare business. In the annual report letter to shareholders it specifically states that "Marriott" in the name of the new company. Why would the Marriott family risk their name with a product they didn't believe in? MVCI will be better positioned to grow and serve it's members.
??? Couldn't you make the same point about Trump? Look at all the stuff with his name that has gone belly up: Trump Marina, Trump Taj Mahal, Trump Plaza (three times in bankruptcy), Trump Airlines (the Donald defaulted on loans, Trump Vodka (!), Trump Mortgage, Trump Tower Tampa ... the list goes on. My point? There's money to be made in licensing a name, and in a Spinco world, there's NO guarantee whatsoever that Marriott will stand behind the brand. Marriott will collect the fees, and say a sad sayonara if Spinco crashes and burns. Marriott could always rebound by launching Marriott: the Game (yes, that too was a moment of Trump genius).
 

pwrshift

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??? Couldn't you make the same point about Trump? Look at all the stuff with his name that has gone belly up: Trump Marina, Trump Taj Mahal, Trump Plaza (three times in bankruptcy), Trump Airlines (the Donald defaulted on loans, Trump Vodka (!), Trump Mortgage, Trump Tower Tampa ... the list goes on. My point? There's money to be made in licensing a name, and in a Spinco world, there's NO guarantee whatsoever that Marriott will stand behind the brand. Marriott will collect the fees, and say a sad sayonara if Spinco crashes and burns. Marriott could always rebound by launching Marriott: the Game (yes, that too was a moment of Trump genius).

Add Trump Fort Lauderdale to the list!
 
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