mstoyanov
TUG Member
- Joined
- Jan 4, 2009
- Messages
- 260
- Reaction score
- 0
I am not doom and gloom person but no matter how you slice it and dice it there is no way to see recent events surrounding Marriott Timeshare business as anything but having negative impact on timeshare owners. Even if economy improves significantly market for securitising mortgages is gone and will not come back and without such market there is no chance for the MCVI (or anyone else) to significantly increase timeshare sales. Very few people pay in full for timeshare purchases. So Spinco will have strongly to rely on increased management fees. I fully expect in the next 3 years to see average 6-7% increase in MFs per year on top of normal increases just from Spinco being forced to show better bottom line.
Add to the fact that Marriott was affected the worst of all major timeshare companies - when the crisis hit they had more unsold inventory than all others major TS companies combined. Economy is improving slightly and most other timeshare companies are starting to exercise ROFR regularly since they have tiny inventory - Hilton has never been as aggressive as recently (they buy even silver weeks), Starwood started regular ROFRs (something unheard before). DVC despite that they mostly concentrating on BCV are still not letting very cheap deals to go trough - I recently lost a great deal on VWL points. I even had Intrawest take a great deal that I had negotiated to buy. Wyndham does not have ROFR but is still acquiring inventory trough WAAM deals.
That said I still believe that top resorts at prime times will hold value - maybe not as much as some here wish but they would not be worthless as long as there is a good differential between MFs and rental price.
Now that value will be lower than what some believe but this is simply because people use unreasonable underlying assumptions to support their prices. I hear 10% ROI here mentioned quite a lot - in a true real estate 10% may be pretty good return but that is only because you can lock expenses pretty well (fixed mortgages, hedging against real estate slides, long term maintenance and utility contracts) and even downward slide in prices is quite limited compared to the timeshares (until recent crisis real estate prices dropping in half were unheard of). But I will never even consider trying to build a business renting timeshares with only 10% ROI - since underlying cost in timeshares can change drastically in very short time and can not be constrained. I will never buy any timeshare for mainly rent without at least 25-30% expected ROI.
Prime weeks in drive-to locations (Newport, Myrtle Beach, Hilton Head) will keep their prices much better than fly-only destinations since these are not that dependent on high volatile energy prices but sometime even a single event can change picture drastically (for example HI/SC proposed higher TAT, Hurricane destroying an area and sharply raising insurance rate for decades and so on)
Despite that I am still strong believer in timesharing - and I put my money where my mouth is. I just bought recently 2 EOY Marriott Platinum weeks for literally peanuts that I expect to use at least 50% of the time and currently can be rented when not used for at least 50% above MFs. These are my first Marriott purchases (I have all other major TS groups in my portfolio) and the prices that I bough my weeks would not have been possible without horrible DC program so I guess I have to be thankful to Marriott for depressing the prices.
Anyway I fully believe that now can really be a great time to get a excellent deals on timeshares that you plan to use for most of the time.
Add to the fact that Marriott was affected the worst of all major timeshare companies - when the crisis hit they had more unsold inventory than all others major TS companies combined. Economy is improving slightly and most other timeshare companies are starting to exercise ROFR regularly since they have tiny inventory - Hilton has never been as aggressive as recently (they buy even silver weeks), Starwood started regular ROFRs (something unheard before). DVC despite that they mostly concentrating on BCV are still not letting very cheap deals to go trough - I recently lost a great deal on VWL points. I even had Intrawest take a great deal that I had negotiated to buy. Wyndham does not have ROFR but is still acquiring inventory trough WAAM deals.
That said I still believe that top resorts at prime times will hold value - maybe not as much as some here wish but they would not be worthless as long as there is a good differential between MFs and rental price.
Now that value will be lower than what some believe but this is simply because people use unreasonable underlying assumptions to support their prices. I hear 10% ROI here mentioned quite a lot - in a true real estate 10% may be pretty good return but that is only because you can lock expenses pretty well (fixed mortgages, hedging against real estate slides, long term maintenance and utility contracts) and even downward slide in prices is quite limited compared to the timeshares (until recent crisis real estate prices dropping in half were unheard of). But I will never even consider trying to build a business renting timeshares with only 10% ROI - since underlying cost in timeshares can change drastically in very short time and can not be constrained. I will never buy any timeshare for mainly rent without at least 25-30% expected ROI.
Prime weeks in drive-to locations (Newport, Myrtle Beach, Hilton Head) will keep their prices much better than fly-only destinations since these are not that dependent on high volatile energy prices but sometime even a single event can change picture drastically (for example HI/SC proposed higher TAT, Hurricane destroying an area and sharply raising insurance rate for decades and so on)
Despite that I am still strong believer in timesharing - and I put my money where my mouth is. I just bought recently 2 EOY Marriott Platinum weeks for literally peanuts that I expect to use at least 50% of the time and currently can be rented when not used for at least 50% above MFs. These are my first Marriott purchases (I have all other major TS groups in my portfolio) and the prices that I bough my weeks would not have been possible without horrible DC program so I guess I have to be thankful to Marriott for depressing the prices.
Anyway I fully believe that now can really be a great time to get a excellent deals on timeshares that you plan to use for most of the time.