Looking at the DC points value in reference to exchange history

[dougp26364]

For most people, there is a point above which the flexibility provided is still not worth the expense required to produce that flexibility.

I can't argue this point. I suspect a largerer percentage will find the DC not worth the cost. For the most part I'm in that group.

However, due to illness in the family, it was convert or lose weeks or possibly check out early from a week long stay.

With points, I could preserve the full weeks vacation by changing the check in day. I could alter another vacation by tacking on a couple of nights in front of an I.I. exchange to make what was going to be a 4 night stay (leaving the exchange early) and get back to a 7 night vacation. Because we travel in off season, I should be able to stretch out points and get a second full week.

The rub is that I won't be getting two bedroom units. Instead, everything will be in one bedroom units. Yes I'll get my two full weeks vacation in AND salvage another vacation BUT, I give up at least one studio unit in the deal and possibly two. In out case, since it's just the wife and myself, losing the studio isn't that big of a deal. Since friend/family often can't travel with us the studio has often been used for suitcase storage. I suppose our suitcases will just have to survive without their own room.

There may be times when points is weighted in favor of weeks, not because they're the same value but, because you can save value that would be otherwise lost.

 

[SueDonJ]

Sue, I actually read your post wrong. I thought, for some reason, you were saying weeks owners may not be able to make the same trades.

Why measure it? To determine value in different situations. The more experiences that are posted here, the better Tuggers are able to come to their own conclusions about joining, not joining, converting or not converting legacy weeks.

Knowledge is power.

For a minute there I couldn't figure out what you were saying, then it was nice to see you talking to yourself and making it all clear. I do that sometimes, too, talk to myself on the boards.

Really, Doug, I agree with you about skim being present in every system in one fashion or another. The exercise you're doing here in this thread is an interesting way of measuring the additional DC skim resulting from historical uptrades in II. And it isn't at all that I think it's a completely worthless exercise (although, if I did, you could certainly turn around and tell me that what I think doesn't matter more than a hill of beans.)

I just think that stopping the exercise with what you're calling the "shortage" maybe makes the exercise futile, because most of those comparisons will result in a shortage. When determining comparative value in its most basic form, the more valid measurement is to compare what a Week might get in II and what that Week's allotment will get in the DC. Take the skim out of the equation completely, whether it's DC skim or II skim. Break it down simply to - if you can't get with Points what you can get with II, then go with II; and, if you can't get with II what you can get with Points, go with Points.

Same thing with the question of whether to enroll a Week that you probably won't ever convert to DC Points usage - if the DC all-inclusive fees for your particular usage of that Week will eventually, in a reasonable time span, be less than the per-transaction fees you'll incur if the Week is not enrolled, then enroll it! If not, don't!

Then after the basics are considered it makes sense to look at things like the flexibility that you're finding valuable at this particular time, the banking/borrowing options, the discounts on cash stays for DC status, the Collections that maybe don't make for comparative value but do offer convenience, etc...

I guess I'm looking for simplicity, especially when it's obvious from questions on TUG (even from long-time TUGgers) that there is still so much about the DC that's misunderstood. IMO skim, in any of its forms, isn't the only measurement that matters.

 

[rthib]

I think this is a good exercise for folks to think about using both systems to their advantage.

I have two lock-offs, so the saving in fees is worth it.

But for me, this year (for 2013) I am using my 13 month week advantage something I can't do with points. But I also have three unused II deposits, so I know for 2014 I am going to convert one unit to points.

Right now, most of my vacations are 8-9 days, so I am always short a day or two.
I could use a deposit to get those extra days but that is a huge II skim.
Or convert my week to Reward points but that is even bigger week skim.

But with the points I am rolling over from 2012 and points I borrow for 2014, I can add those days easily.

Before my only options was to take my week convert it to Marriott points and then book at a hotel for the extra day.
Now I can book a 9 day vacation and don't have to change.

It is all about working the system.
If you know how to use both it works great.

For me the basic idea is if trying to trade up, use weeks.
If trying to trade down, use points.

 

[Beefnot]

For me the basic idea is if trying to trade up, use weeks.
If trying to trade down, use points.

In a nutshell, that seems to make sense. But is that viable in the whole scheme of things? Wouldn't everyone be trying to trade down? Doesn't that create some sort of trade imbalance? Honestly, I don't understand the whole points system, and perhaps its not much different conceptually than weeks. I dunno, haven't thought it through.

 

[siberiavol]

In a nutshell, that seems to make sense. But is that viable in the whole scheme of things? Wouldn't everyone be trying to trade down? Doesn't that create some sort of trade imbalance? Honestly, I don't understand the whole points system, and perhaps its not much different conceptually than weeks. I dunno, haven't thought it through.

It takes some time and effort to understand how individual markets work. Timeshare transactions of all kinds are done in a very inefficient market. There is no MLS or stock market.TUG represents a tiny percentage of Marriott owners who have an interest in exploring ways to perhaps get extra value out their timeshare. That extra value has been there at least for the twelve years I have been an owner if people look for it. Most are happy where they are or don't bother to look.

 

[PetePullen]

Great analysis!

Thanks for the great analysis! My gut reaction was that our results would be similar, so it's nice to see an actual calculation. I agree that DC or non-DC is a personal choice, but I think non-DC is a better choice for us, based on the kind of use and exchanges we do.

 

[lapdawg]

In a nutshell, that seems to make sense. But is that viable in the whole scheme of things? Wouldn't everyone be trying to trade down? Doesn't that create some sort of trade imbalance? Honestly, I don't understand the whole points system, and perhaps its not much different conceptually than weeks. I dunno, haven't thought it through.

No, there are plenty of up trades. You can roll over points from a previous year or borrow from the next year to trade up. Or trade up with regard to accomodations but with a shorter stay.

 

[lapdawg]

Before passing judgement of "up trading", you might want to take note of the "down trade" from Platinum to Gold season in most cases. For the most part, I would consider these even exchanges.

In the end, it is an example of what could be accomplished in the weeks exchange system that can not be accomplished in the points based system. Also you might want to look at 2009, which shows like for like exchanges in max sleeping accomadations AND both exchanges as down trades from Platinum to Gold season. Even in that year, there remains a shortage.

Fair or not fair doesn't really matter. It still stands as an example of lost value in the DC points reservations vs historical weeks exchanges.

Doug, I'm not passing judgement on uptrading, I think it's great if you can do it.

My main point is that the value that you call "lost" is not lost at all in the DC club system. Instead, the value is returned to the down traders. Marriott only gets a small portion of it (the skim). I think it's misleading to call it "lost" or "shortage".

 

[dougp26364]

No, there are plenty of up trades. You can roll over points from a previous year or borrow from the next year to trade up. Or trade up with regard to accomodations but with a shorter stay.

I'm not certain I'd consider those examples up-trades. They're more or less equivelent trades if you shorten your vacation time or combine points from various years for a vacation.

Even in weeks it's hard to define an up-trade. We've often traded up in size but down in season, going from a more prime week to a what many would consider a shoulder season week. In fact, most so called up-trades I've read about have been along these lines.

With the DC, I'm finding that's not possible nearly as much as with weeks. IMHO to high of value has been put on shoulder season weeks or even off season weeks at some resorts. On the other hand, there are some real bargains there at older resorts in shoulder or off season. Some of the older HHI resorts appear to be good values. Park City seems to be a good value for summer weeks. Vail looks like a great value to me for summer weeks but, I haven't ever stayed there so, maybe not if the accomadations aren't that great or, Vail just isn't an active town in the summer.

The DC has really comlicated life for me when I look at it from a value perspective. Most of the time trading in weeks makes the most sense from an economic standpoint based on how we vacation. Other times the flexablity of the DC trumps any perceived monetary value from trading in weeks.

The real challenge is going to be gauging the future. How much control will Marriott have over weeks exchanges? Will inventory dry up? Will they kill off the "up-trades" to larger units, even if you're exchanging to a slower vacation time? We're all sort of in the dark on these points. We'll have to give it time and keep posting our results and thoughts as the months/years go by.

 

[Beefnot]

Just an opposite point of view. I'm sitting on my balcony at Frenchman's Cove watching the Norwegian Gem sail into port. I got here on DC points. An impossible trade in II at 12 months out. I used an Ocean Pointe 2b OS plat unit and I'm in a 2b OF plat unit. I came out 200 points on the upside.

An impossible trade or just impossible at 12 months out?

 

[dioxide45]

Update with 2012 Weeks Usage

All of these were exchanges through II. 2013 weeks looks like it is trending in the same direction. Though for 2014, we converted both of our weeks to DC points to get exchanges that we could not have done in II. The flexibility of DC is great.

2012:
1BR Harbour Lake for 2BR Ocean Watch April 15th 2011 for 7 nights (3,175 points)
Studio Harbour Lake for 2BR Lakeshore Reserve May 24th 2012 for 6 nights (1,950 points)
1BR Grande Vista for 2BR Oceana Palms for November 11th 2012 for 5 nights (3,400 points)
Studio Grande Vista for Studio Westin Lagunamar May 16th 2013 for 7 nights (1,500 points)
2BR Harbour Lake November 8th 2012 for 2 nights (800 points)
Studio Harbour Lake November 9th 2012 for 1 night (250 points)

2BR Harbour Lake (1950 points)
2BR Grande Vista (2175 points)

Total points required 11,075
Total points received 4,125
Shortage: 6,950 points

Using II for off season/shoulder season stays seems to still be the best value. Hard to beat it in DC.