How long or so long Hawaii?

[1Kflyerguy]

Well, they seem quite different to me as they limit very specific locations rather than "the world."

Cheers.

That is true, though depending on where you located it may be functionally the same...

My main concern is that as cautious as Hawaii has been, i assume the new regional quarantines will likely influence Hawaii's new policy. To be honest i am not sure i would fault them for that.

 

[Passepartout]

My bad on the address showing on US passports. It doesn't. Sorry for the confusion. Your Real ID DL should remove any doubt about your residency.

 

[Luanne]

We don’t travel too much internationally but we have kept up our passports since we first gotten them years ago.

We both switched over to Hawaii drivers licenses when we got here so those are new and good for 10 years.

We have TSA Pre-check but not global ID.

We don't travel much internationally either. But dh had a passport and I got one when I went with him to Switzerland some years back. I think I've only renewed it once. When our younger dd was attending school in Vancouver, BC we went back and forth a few times. When we decided to pay for PreCheck someone advised us to go ahead and get Global Entry as it was only $15 more for the 5 years. And now dh's credit card pays for his. Global Entry was very helpful for the trips to Canada.

When we moved to Santa Fe we, of course, got new licenses, good for 8 years.

 

[ljmiii]

Hawaii - Aug 1st with testing https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...ige-discusses-trans-pacific-travel-to-hawaii/

 

[TDub1313]

This still seems like a very risky proposition. I’m sure it will get things moving again relative to where they are today but the risk to the traveler would be huge. Obviously if one knew they were positive they shouldn’t be traveling. That being said I would be fearful of making air/hotel reservations that could easily run into the many thousands of dollars, only to “fail” your test just days before departure. I get the idea of a “slow/phased open” and that the number one priority of the Hawaiian Government is to prevent further spread of C-19, but I don’t think the masses will be ready to take the risk of planning 9-12 months out and knowing they have to pass a test mere days before departure. Trip insurance would almost be required....

 

[slip]

This still seems like a very risky proposition. I’m sure it will get things moving again relative to where they are today but the risk to the traveler would be huge. Obviously if one knew they were positive they shouldn’t be traveling. That being said I would be fearful of making air/hotel reservations that could easily run into the many thousands of dollars, only to “fail” your test just days before departure. I get the idea of a “slow/phased open” and that the number one priority of the Hawaiian Government is to prevent further spread of C-19, but I don’t think the masses will be ready to take the risk of planning 9-12 months out and knowing they have to pass a test mere days before departure. Trip insurance would almost be required....

That is the remaining question, how many visitors will return with the new criteria and complications.

 

[JIMinNC]

This still seems like a very risky proposition. I’m sure it will get things moving again relative to where they are today but the risk to the traveler would be huge. Obviously if one knew they were positive they shouldn’t be traveling. That being said I would be fearful of making air/hotel reservations that could easily run into the many thousands of dollars, only to “fail” your test just days before departure. I get the idea of a “slow/phased open” and that the number one priority of the Hawaiian Government is to prevent further spread of C-19, but I don’t think the masses will be ready to take the risk of planning 9-12 months out and knowing they have to pass a test mere days before departure. Trip insurance would almost be required....

We are faced with potentially dealing with this situation for our Jan/Feb 2021 trip to Kauai, Maui, and HGVC Kings Land. While that is still many months away, I firmly expect us to still be dealing with COVID then, maybe/probably more serious than even now. We've had the Kauai and Maui weeks booked since before COVID hit, and added the Kings Land week using points freed up when we canceled our long-planned trip to HGVC Borgo alle Vigne in Tuscany that had been planned for this coming September. Here is how I am looking at it:

• Our maintenance fees are a sunk cost, since we have to pay whether we can use them or not. Our first two weeks are our owned weeks at Marriott Waiohai Beach Club and Marriott Maui Ocean Club, so its basically use it or lose it. The third week is with HGVC points we need to try to use also.
• We just tonight found tickets on AA using some of our 1.5 million AAdvantage miles. We got 2 RT tickets CLT-Kauai/Kona-CLT for 40K each. That's just 80,000 miles for 2 RT tickets to Hawaii. Who knows what flight schedules will really look like then, but if AA changes the flights, they should try to re-route us.
• So, we have almost no $$ truly at risk right now. I'm not 100% sure if we had to cancel last minute if AA still refunds the miles to our account or if we have to cancel a certain number of days out to get the points returned, but in a worst case scenario where we lost the points, it's only 80K of 1.5 million. I haven't seen Hawaii for that amount of miles from Charlotte EVER, so it was just screaming for me to grab it.

For now, with so little at risk, we can just play it by ear and see how things develop. We'll book rental cars sometime in the next few months since those can be canceled. If Hawaii is still open to visitors that test negative around November or so, we'll probably make our inter island reservations (might even do it sooner if we decide to use AA miles to book Hawaiian as we did in 2019).

After the holidays, we'll plan to basically self-quarantine at home and/or at our Hilton Head condo for two-three weeks prior to leaving to hopefully avoid the chance that our pre-trip COVID test comes back positive. Our biggest fear would be a false positive for one of us, but that is a chance we'll have to take.

 

[slip]

We are faced with potentially dealing with this situation for our Jan/Feb 2021 trip to Kauai, Maui, and HGVC Kings Land. While that is still many months away, I firmly expect us to still be dealing with COVID then, maybe/probably more serious than even now. We've had the Kauai and Maui weeks booked since before COVID hit, and added the Kings Land week using points freed up when we canceled our long-planned trip to HGVC Borgo all Vigne in Tuscany that had been planned for this coming September. Here is how I am looking at it:

• Our maintenance fees are a sunk cost, since we have to pay whether we can use them or not. Our first two weeks are our owned weeks at Marriott Waiohai Beach Club and Marriott Maui Ocean Club, so its basically use it or lose it. The third week is with HGVC points we need to try to use also.
• We just tonight found tickets on AA using some of our 1.5 million AAdvantage miles. We got 2 RT tickets CLT-Kauai/Kona-CLT for 40K each. That's just 80,000 miles for 2 RT tickets to Hawaii. Who knows what flight schedules will really look like then, but if AA changes the flights, they should try to re-route us.
• So, we have almost no $$ truly at risk right now. I'm not 100% sure if we had to cancel last minute if AA still refunds the miles to our account or if we have to cancel a certain number of days out to get the points returned, but in a worst case scenario where we lost the points, it's only 80K of 1.5 million. I haven't seen Hawaii for that amount of miles from Charlotte EVER, so it was just screaming for me to grab it.

For now, with so little at risk, we can just play it by ear and see how things develop. We'll book rental cars sometime in the next few months since those can be canceled. If Hawaii is still open to visitors that test negative around November or so, we'll probably make our inter island reservations (might even do it sooner if we decide to use AA miles to book Hawaiian as we did in 2019).

After the holidays, we'll plan to basically self-quarantine at home and/or at our Hilton Head condo for two-three weeks prior to leaving to hopefully avoid the chance that our pre-trip COVID test comes back positive. Our biggest fear would be a false positive for one of us, but that is a chance we'll have to take.

Sounds like a good plan. You’ll be good to go.

 

[fernow]

Glad to see Hawaii's decision. We have two trips booked there in the 4th quarter and looks like both are now "good to go". Without specifically stating it, Hawaii has taken a position that facing some virus risk is necessary for the economy and therefore overall health of the people.

As far as the risk of testing positive 3 days before going; the statistical probability of that is so low it is not even worth considering. You have a trip in 4 months lets say. You have not gotten the virus since it's USA arrival sometime late last year. And then, 7-14 days before your trip, you get it? Probability not zero but certainly not much above zero.

This Covid-19 thing has always been about probabilities. IF you get it, and you have risk factors, it CAN be a serious disease but your risk of getting it is still low. Most people will not get the virus. Your risk of getting seriously ill IF you do get it is very low, even with risk factors. There are very few zero risk events in life. Hawaii's positive test numbers WILL go up but facing the virus has always been an eventual necessity. See IP.

 

[1Kflyerguy]

This still seems like a very risky proposition. I’m sure it will get things moving again relative to where they are today but the risk to the traveler would be huge. Obviously if one knew they were positive they shouldn’t be traveling. That being said I would be fearful of making air/hotel reservations that could easily run into the many thousands of dollars, only to “fail” your test just days before departure. I get the idea of a “slow/phased open” and that the number one priority of the Hawaiian Government is to prevent further spread of C-19, but I don’t think the masses will be ready to take the risk of planning 9-12 months out and knowing they have to pass a test mere days before departure. Trip insurance would almost be required....

In an ideal world the hotels and airlines would offer refunds or credits. I am not booking any prepaid cash hotels at this time.. Some of the timeshare companies have been better than others in terms of rebooking... but yes its still risky

 

[Luanne]

In an ideal world the hotels and airlines would offer refunds or credits. I am not booking any prepaid cash hotels at this time.. Some of the timeshare companies have been better than others in terms of rebooking... but yes its still risky

Aren't airlines offering refunds, or at least credits? I never do a prepaid hotel. I did do one in May for some friends, but I was able to cancel and get a full refund.

 

[fernow]

Perception is reality. Phobias are "real".

But what does "risky" mean? Baseline risk of contracting Covid-19 is less than 0.5%. By comparison, Flu risk during Flu season is appox 0.4%. In the past, did people avoid winter travel because of that risk? Vaccine development protocols expect an infection rate of less than 50/10,000 which is one reason proof of efficacy testing takes so long. So, baseline risk is low and risk of contraction in the pre-travel window is even lower. So, how should we define "risky".

And to prevent further spread of Covid-19, Hawaii would have to remain under 14 day quarantine for many years. See IP. Someday we have to face the virus. Hope a safe, effective and world wide deploy-able vaccine comes "soon" but...hope is not reason.

 

[1Kflyerguy]

Aren't airlines offering refunds, or at least credits? I never do a prepaid hotel. I did do one in May for some friends, but I was able to cancel and get a full refund.

Yes many airlines are offering extra flexibility. United will changes without fee for any reservations made by June 30th. Not sure if they or other airlines will extend that type of policy.

I don't typically make prepaid reservations, but occasionally the savings offered are tempting. Personally we will probably avoid any private rentals like Redweek etc. as well. Flexibility is key right now.

 

[brp]

Perception is reality. Phobias are "real".

But what does "risky" mean? Baseline risk of contracting Covid-19 is less than 0.5%. By comparison, Flu risk during Flu season is appox 0.4%.

And this is based upon? I've certainly seen nothing credible to support such a low rate for COVID-19. Also, don't forget that whatever the numbers are for COVID19, this is *with* strong mitigation steps in place, versus none for flu. So, whatever the number are, they'd be quite a bit higher under the same conditions we allow for flu. Not a comparison of the same thing.

Cheers.

 

[fernow]

Truth is indeed hard to come by these days. And as my grandfather used to say, "A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still." Or as Twain put it, "It is easier to fool a man than to convince him he has been fooled."

Trouble is, we don't know which of us has been fooled! I am willing to consider it could be me!

But, there are multiple sources of information which place the risk at less than 1% and most in the less than 0.5% range. Mitigation is certainly a factor. Vaccine research literature uses a 50/10000 expected infection rate and they would be unlikely to misrepresent based on a political agenda. They need to know how many doses they they need to give to get representative data.

If something scares you, don't do it. The anxiety isn't worth it no matter what the real probability of harm is. But some attempt at understanding what the real "risk" is and how it compares to other risks seems prudent. Nothing in life is risk free.

In terms of flu comparison, you are correct. Not the same. We DO have a vaccine for flu yet still have 0.4% infection risk and people DO travel with mild un-diagnosed cases of the flu because there is not regulation preventing it. Not the same. Will we feel safe if a Covid-19 vaccine leaves us with a 0.4% infection risk?

Covid-19 and world wide response to the virus, coupled with increasingly agenda driven broadcast media where information is more conformation bias then dispassionate presentation of fact as well as social media (inc forums) are all new things which have come together to create a very strange and interesting new world. IMO. There was a run on toilet paper because there was a run on toilet paper.

 

[brp]

Truth is indeed hard to come by these days. And as my grandfather used to say, "A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still." Or as Twain put it, "It is easier to fool a man than to convince him he has been fooled."

Trouble is, we don't know which of us has been fooled! I am willing to consider it could be me!

But, there are multiple sources of information which place the risk at less than 1% and most in the less than 0.5% range. Mitigation is certainly a factor. Vaccine research literature uses a 50/10000 expected infection rate and they would be unlikely to misrepresent based on a political agenda. They need to know how many doses they they need to give to get representative data.

I guess the one question I'll ask here (and I completely agree with the idea of agendas here) is why, if this is on a par with flu, there are many more cases and many many more serious cases/hospitalizations and deaths? Those are real data.

And, mitigation has been unquestionably (I would say, although others are free to question) a large factor such that things would be much worse without. But it's already clearly much worse than flu even with mitigation, just based on real, measurable numbers.

So, without even looking at published estimations/assumptions/SWAGs from various sources, the real data speak pretty loudly. And the real data would seem to point well beyond the flu, agendas aside.

Cheers.

 

[dayooper]

Is this the correct forum for the discussion of Covid theories?

 

[linsj]

Is this the correct forum for the discussion of Covid theories?

Not really. It's for Hilton discussions, and there are Covid threads elsewhere.

 

[brp]

Is this the correct forum for the discussion of Covid theories?

Not really. It's for Hilton discussions, and there are Covid threads elsewhere.

Fair point, I guess only inasmuch as it impacts the decisions being made in Hawaii (after all, this thread is about Hawaii and rules and not specifically about Hilton either, and I'm sure there are Hawaii policies threads elsewhere ). But the COVID need go no further...and it may be straying a bit...

Cheers.

 

[NiteMaire]

Yes, our drivers license does have the gold star. We didn’t update our passports with our new address. Probably should look into doing that. Mahalo

DLs work for proof.

When you arrive at the security line, you have to fill out/turn in the health form and show ID. We printed them at home and filled them out ahead of time. After turning in forms, they check your temp. No TSA Pre at the moment, but we were 2nd in line. You have to fill out new forms for the return.

On the way to the gate we noticed a long line of folks. They had just arrived from the mainland and had to turn in forms on arrival. Did I mention it was a long line?

Alamo verified state residency. We're travelling with another family. Hertz didn't ask for proof.

 

[slip]

DLs work for proof.

When you arrive at the security line, you have to fill out/turn in the health form and show ID. We printed them at home and filled them out ahead of time. After turning in forms, they check your temp. No TSA Pre at the moment, but we were 2nd in line. You have to fill out new forms for the return.

On the way to the gate we noticed a long line of folks. They had just arrived from the mainland and had to turn in forms on arrival. Did I mention it was a long line?

Alamo verified state residency. We're travelling with another family. Hertz didn't ask for proof.

We are flying Mokulele so we won’t have to worry about TSA and the planes are really only about 9 seaters so we shouldn’t see much of a line.

Thanks for telling me about the forms. We had the one filled out but I wasn’t going to bring one for the return flight. So we packed a few extras for that.

We just finished packing so tomorrow morning all we have to do is throw our cold food we are taking and we are off. Flight leaves at 11am and we land at 11:40. Sure beats the 12 to 15 hours it used to take us to get there from Wisconsin.

 

[fernow]

Is this the correct forum for the discussion of Covid theories?

Yes.

I don't believe there is a more important topic to discuss here. The virus, and our response to it, will greatly impact the value of our timeshare properties, the financial health of HGVC and all our future travel plans. I am focused on Hawaii because that's where I own and like to travel but the questions apply elsewhere too. Vegas anyone? Why go with everything shut down?

Travel is about venues, restaurants, beaches, tours, bars, entertainment.... all dead at this point. Anyone still own a timeshare in Branson or Disney World? Why? Sell it quick. Or... seek other perspectives first.

Seeking the perspective, knowledge and opinion of others on the topic is wise. If not here, where? If not now, when?

Would love to know how many new units HGVC has sold ytd compared to last year. Impacts their bottom line and therefore health of my timeshare investment.
Should I buy another unit as the prices drop or sell mine quick while there is still a market?
What are the risks of travel, both financial and to health?

At the time of my IP, Hawaii still had a 14 day quarantine in place, making my timeshare in Hawaii useless. The next day they "opened up". But in doing so, they WILL see increase in cases which may prompt return to 14 day quarantine. How long can HGVC go without travelers to sell units too? What happens to my unit value if another quarantine is implemented?

Sorry if the discussion makes people uncomfortable. Just don't respond, and let the thread die of natural causes.

But the topic is important, as is seeking knowledge from others. Guess I may need to look elsewhere for insight.

As brp would say. Cheers.

 

[HGVC Lover]

Yes.

Would love to know how many new units HGVC has sold ytd compared to last year. Impacts their bottom line and therefore health of my timeshare investment.
Should I buy another unit as the prices drop or sell mine quick while there is still a market?
What are the risks of travel, both financial and to health?

At the time of my IP, Hawaii still had a 14 day quarantine in place, making my timeshare in Hawaii useless. The next day they "opened up". But in doing so, they WILL see increase in cases which may prompt return to 14 day quarantine. How long can HGVC go without travelers to sell units too? What happens to my unit value if another quarantine is implemented?

As brp would say. Cheers.

I have always been told never to consider a timeshare and investment and we bought 28,000 points resale so over the years we have certainly got our value out of what we paid. We are headed to HGVC Kingsland in August and hopefully will be able to secure the COVID -19 test 72 hours before arrival so no quarantine. If not 14 day quarantine. After that we are looking forward to being on the island of Hawaii with only 87 cases and zero deaths since COVID-19 began. We used to live there so we feel it is really easy to socially isolate and be safe as any where else. We do not see HGVC as a losing proposition no matter what happens. People will travel again and actually timesharing might become very desirable if cruising and other industries are not able to start up.