How long or so long Hawaii?

[fernow]

Potential future of Covid -19 health impact:

Virus will "burn out" or mutate to a less significant health risk. Viruses do that. It is in their Darwinian best interest not to kill their host.

"Herd Immunity" will develop. Society is currently doing everything it can to prevent this outcome.

A safe vaccine will be developed. Long odds in general despite what you hear on TV. Fastest vaccine EVER developed took 5 yrs. Most take more than 10 yrs. Even if developed sooner, many will be reluctant to take a vaccine rushed into production.

An effective treatment will be developed.

So, given those potential outcomes, when does Hawaii remove it's 14 day quarantine? Now that it has been implemented, officials will be VERY reluctant to remove it. IF they remove it before a vaccine (2-5 yrs optimistically) or before the virus "burns out" (won't know for ??? long) or before Herd Immunity (which CAN'T be developed under quarantine) Hawaiians WILL get infected. No way around it. IF there is an effective treatment, great but people still WILL get infected.

So it looks to me that travel to Hawaii is "toast" for at least a year unless the economic pain gets so bad that the population decides to face the virus risks. Although that is necessary IMO at some point, it doesn't seem likely any time soon.

So... agree? Disagree? Specific reasons are always nice.

Impact on HGVC financial bottom line?

I HOPE to be able to travel to Hawaii soon but HOPE is not reason.

 

[slip]

There is a different thread on this In the Hawaii forum. Governor Ige said he will make an announcement this week. They are modeling Hawaii’s opening after Alaska’s but Alaska has had some set backs so there has been a delay.

The Governor said the quarantine will be around for a long time but Travelers will be able to shorten it or eliminated by having tests done.

You will be able to go to Hawaii soon but it will be up to you if you want to go through the testing and follow the other traveling rules.

I am going inter-island for the first time this weekend and the only things different are that I have to fill out a form, get my temperature taken at the airport and wear a mask during flight. I’ll know on Saturday if these are the only changes.

 

[pedro47]

I am waiting on the The Governor announcement ?

 

[HGVC Lover]

So it looks to me that travel to Hawaii is "toast" for at least a year unless the economic pain gets so bad that the population decides to face the virus risks. Although that is necessary IMO at some point, it doesn't seem likely any time soon.

So... agree? Disagree? Specific reasons are always nice.

Impact on HGVC financial bottom line?

We usually go to the Bay Club for at least 6 weeks at a time and are hoping for an opening up of tourism by September 2020. I have been reading the news and blogs about Hawaii tourism and they are looking at a model where you would have to have a negative test 72 hours prior to boarding a plane and then receive a second test when you arrive in Hawaii and then you quarantine in an assigned hotel for 6 days until proven COVID-19 negative. It sounds like they want to move off the 14 day quarantine and this Fall may be a good time to do it for the new entry requirements because so many snow birds come there then and a 6 day quarantine is probably not going to be that intrusive to their vacation. My only question having lived in Hawaii for many years is do they really have the testing capacity to do what they are suggesting and will test results come back in a timely manner or on Hawaiian time? The other missing piece is how much is this all going to cost and I assume we will be paying for the privilege as visitors.

As far as HGVC's bottom line.....they have collected our MF's for the year, HI resorts are not open so costs must be greatly reduced and there could be a lot of points that people just are not going to be able to use period. I would think they are OK financially but I really have no idea?

 

[brp]

We have a 5-night trip over Thanksgiving. I'll do tests, but a 6-day quarantine won't fly with us. It will definitely be intrusive. We'll see how this plays out.

Cheers.

 

[fernow]

So the authorities are making concessions towards the economic impact. BUT 6 days vs 14 days changes very little. Only a very few people who could not waste 14 days can waste 6 days. One day maybe. Two days?? Nah. Vacation time too precious and there are other options. So economic damage will continue while virus risk increases slightly from such a decision.

Virus infected the whole world starting with one person. So the less than 100% accuracy of testing still places Hawaii "at risk". The world, including Hawaii, will have to face the virus now or later. See suppositions in IP. Later is the current choice but does not change the eventuality. I remain with 1 yr guess unless public decides economic risk outweighs health risk, both of which are real, and compels the government to open up.

 

[NiteMaire]

I am going inter-island for the first time this weekend and the only things different are that I have to fill out a form, get my temperature taken at the airport and wear a mask during flight. I’ll know on Saturday if these are the only changes.

We leave Friday for a weekend trip to BI; forms are printed, temps are normal (today), and masks are at the ready. We printed 2 sets of forms in case we need them for the return as well. If they aren't needed, we'll use them for our trip to Kauai next Friday.

 

[slip]

So the authorities are making concessions towards the economic impact. BUT 6 days vs 14 days changes very little. Only a very few people who could not waste 14 days can waste 6 days. One day maybe. Two days?? Nah. Vacation time too precious and there are other options. So economic damage will continue while virus risk increases slightly from such a decision.

Virus infected the whole world starting with one person. So the less than 100% accuracy of testing still places Hawaii "at risk". The world, including Hawaii, will have to face the virus now or later. See suppositions in IP. Later is the current choice but does not change the eventuality. I remain with 1 yr guess unless public decides economic risk outweighs health risk, both of which are real, and compels the government to open up.

We still don’t know how many days. There could be no days under certain circumstances. We will have to wait and see what the Governor announces.

 

[1Kflyerguy]

[

We still don’t know how many days. There could be no days under certain circumstances. We will have to wait and see what the Governor announces.

Agreed, there has been a lot of speculation about what will and won't be included in the new order. We have a planned trip for later this year. I am fine with pre-travel testing, but a lot less interested in a potential quarantine after arrival even if its only a couple of days.

I just saw that New York and other states are now implementing similar quarantines... Just have to wait and see what the Governor and team decide on.

 

[bnoble]

We still don’t know how many days. There could be no days under certain circumstances. We will have to wait and see what the Governor announces.

Exactly. Depends on how closely they follow the Alaska model. https://covid19.alaska.gov/travelers/

 

[brp]

We leave Friday for a weekend trip to BI; forms are printed, temps are normal (today), and masks are at the ready. We printed 2 sets of forms in case we need them for the return as well. If they aren't needed, we'll use them for our trip to Kauai next Friday.

Are you prepared to quarantine if that's required? From what I can see, any sort of quarantine duration is still not clear. I hope it's just forms and temps.

I just saw that New York and other states are now implementing similar quarantines... Just have to wait and see what the Governor and team decide on.

Well, they seem quite different to me as they limit very specific locations rather than "the world."

Cheers.

 

[slip]

Are you prepared to quarantine if that's required? From what I can see, any sort of quarantine duration is still not clear. I hope it's just forms and temps.



Well, they seem quite different to me as they limit very specific locations rather than "the world."

Cheers.

Quarantine is not required on Inter-island flights. That was just lifted on June 16th.

 

[NiteMaire]

Are you prepared to quarantine if that's required?

Inter-island travel no longer requires quarantine as of June 16. I'm bring a copy of my electric bill just in case...

 

[brp]

Quarantine is not required on Inter-island flights. That was just lifted on June 16th.

Inter-island travel no longer requires quarantine as of June 16. I'm bring a copy of my electric bill just in case...

OK, failed to look at where you're located

Cheers,

 

[slip]

Inter-island travel no longer requires quarantine as of June 16. I'm bring a copy of my electric bill just in case...

Would our driver’s license work? I wasn’t thinking about bringing anything else.

 

[Passepartout]

Would our driver’s license work? I wasn’t thinking about bringing anything else.

What do the authorities consider proof of residency? I'd think a DL would do it, but IF You have a rent or utility receipt handy, take it along for insurance. Does Hawaii DL have the STAR for REAL ID? That would be the gold standard or a passport w/your Hawaii address.

 

[NiteMaire]

Would our driver’s license work? I wasn’t thinking about bringing anything else.

They should. DW mentioned something to me about DLs as proof, but can't remember what she read. I'll DM you when I get info.

 

[slip]

What do the authorities consider proof of residency? I'd think a DL would do it, but IF You have a rent or utility receipt handy, take it along for insurance. Does Hawaii DL have the STAR for REAL ID? That would be the gold standard or a passport w/your Hawaii address.

Yes, our drivers license does have the gold star. We didn’t update our passports with our new address. Probably should look into doing that. Mahalo

 

[Luanne]

Yes, our drivers license does have the gold star. We didn’t update our passports with our new address. Probably should look into doing that. Mahalo

Since your address isn't shown on your passport I wonder if you need to do that? We didn't change ours when we moved. I had to renew mine after we moved and had no difficulty.

 

[brp]

...or a passport w/your Hawaii address.

We didn’t update our passports with our new address. Probably should look into doing that. Mahalo

My passport doesn't have my address (just looked). Maybe newer ones do (this is from 2014)?

Cheers.

 

[slip]

Since your address isn't shown on your passport I wonder if you need to do that? We didn't change ours when we moved. I had to renew mine after we moved and had no difficulty.

Thank You for that. I don’t have mine handy and I was trying to remember if it was on there anywhere.
Even though it wasn’t necessary, we always used our passports when we flew. We each have Hawaii driver’s licenses and they do have the gold star so I think we are covered either way. Mahalo

 

[Luanne]

Thank You for that. I don’t have mine handy and I was trying to remember if it was on there anywhere.
Even though it wasn’t necessary, we always used our passports when we flew. We each have Hawaii driver’s licenses and they do have the gold star so I think we are covered either way. Mahalo

We use our passports when traveling as well. We are supposed to get the read ID by October 20 of this year. Although that may have been extended again, due to COVID 19. Since my license expires in November 2020 anyway I think I'll go ahead and get the real ID.

 

[brp]

We use our passports when traveling as well. We are supposed to get the read ID by October 20 of this year. Although that may have been extended again, due to COVID 19. Since my license expires in November 2020 anyway I think I'll go ahead and get the real ID.

I now use my Global Entry card when flying domestically (as I don't bring my passport) and the passport for international. because my license expires in September, 2022, I have a couple more years on it before I get the Real ID version.

Cheers.

 

[Luanne]

I now use my Global Entry card when flying domestically (as I don't bring my passport) and the passport for international. because my license expires in September, 2022, I have a couple more years on it before I get the Real ID version.

Cheers.

I never thought to use the Global ID for identification when flying. I don't think I realized that it could be used. The only time I've ever had to show it was when coming back from Canada into the U.S. But then I'd have my passport scanned for ID.

 

[slip]

We use our passports when traveling as well. We are supposed to get the read ID by October 20 of this year. Although that may have been extended again, due to COVID 19. Since my license expires in November 2020 anyway I think I'll go ahead and get the real ID.

We don’t travel too much internationally but we have kept up our passports since we first gotten them years ago.

We both switched over to Hawaii drivers licenses when we got here so those are new and good for 10 years.

We have TSA Pre-check but not global ID.