It's hard to predict how hard this pandemic is going to impact the average timeshare owner, but we have to keep in mind that during the last financial crisis (the housing crisis of 2008), timeshare developers soon realized that they were walking a tightrope. With so many distressed owners walking away from their timeshares, and the HOAs' remedy to simply pass along those missing fees to loyal owners, they exposed an economic reality of their system: MFs can never exceed the current rental rate of the
lowest season (and the lowest view ), or the whole system risks collapsing.
Why? Because consumer protection laws mandate that MFs are based on
square footage, and not season or view. HOAs cannot charge a high season owner more than a low season owner of the same unit. You cannot charge a 1200 sf ocean front owner more than a 1200 sf island view owner. And if they try to raise MFs above the current rental rates of the lowest season/lowest view, those low season owners will walk away. And that risks setting off a vicious cycle of delinquencies = higher MFs = more delinquencies. They even acknowledged this risk in one of their filings.
Since then, they've tried to mitigate this risk by switching to points systems, which allows them to essentially charge higher season and higher view owners more than their fair share. However, a majority of owners are still deeded owners, so IMO, deeded owners are still protected by that economic reality.
Long way to say that my guess is it will not go above low season rental rates.
Hawaii owners may see a jump in MFs because rental rates have gone up on the islands, but if your MFs are already at low season rental rates, you'll be fine. Points owners? I imagine they'll be seeing a slight jump as they test the waters to see what they can get away with.