Covid-19 Peak Projections and Ventilator Shortfalls

[VacationForever]

My oh shit moment was in January when we cancelled our Apr/May trip for 2 cruises and a Hawaii timeshare stay. I saw what was happening in Asia and I knew it was coming... We told our friends who also had an April Hawaii trip that we cancelled and suggested that they do the same and they shrugged it off. They said there were no cases in Hawaii and that they were healthy. Well, he has a heart condition and bad lungs and she has auto-immune issue and both in their mid-70s. They only cancelled their Hawaii trip 2 weeks ago.

 

[geekette]

I started catching on in early Feb seeing big action, big death. Learned about the curve. I figured I can stay home, others can't, I'll be a late catcher. Had not realized then how creepy contagious it could be but glad I tucked in sooner rather than later. Sure would like to wait for a thoroughly tested vax...

I got a chilly feeling last night, what if this crap can also spread by mosquito?

 

[Panina]

My oh shit moment was in January when we cancelled our Apr/May trip for 2 cruises and a Hawaii timeshare stay. I saw what was happening in Asia and I knew it was coming... We told our friends who also had an April Hawaii trip that we cancelled and suggested that they do the same and they shrugged it off. They said there were no cases in Hawaii and that they were healthy. Well, he has a heart condition and bad lungs and she has auto-immune issue and both in their mid-70s. They only cancelled their Hawaii trip 2 weeks ago.

I was in Florida in January and remember telling mom to start stocking up. The day I got home I started doing the same. My belief always were many more were sick and passed then China told us. It amazes me that the whole Earth didn’t react quicker. I believe because what they heard from China was wrong.

 

[Synergy]

Possibly straying too far off topic, feel free to delete if appropriate:

I had my first major moment of premonition when we got off the airplane in Honolulu in January. I'd read about the virus, decided it was too early to make changes, and arrived during Chinese New Year to a sea of mask wearers. Then we got home, got ill, went to a doctor for symptoms we'd never have sought medical care for (btw, this was us being dumb - my other half had bronchitis) and the doctor laughed at us for our concern. I began to buy up products we use frequently from China, believing they'd be in a world of poo for awhile. I believed we (and all the other countries reading the warning signs) would prepare adequately.

When it was obvious that the middle east and Europe had been unable to contain it, I began purchasing things for my own home and my high risk family members. This included thermometers and pulse ox meters, but not toilet paper. I still only have a normal human supply of toilet paper.

It never crossed my mind that we would meet this crisis so inadequately. I thought for sure we'd develop an aggressive screening / testing / tracing / isolation program immediately. It is shameful that we still haven't really gotten a handle on the testing end of things! At least with another month, we'll be able to get our poo together. Hopefully we'll only face shortages through this first wave.

Antibody tests will be invaluable for getting the truly essential bits of the workforce staffed safely after this. I hope that's enough people in the right places to prevent a long term recession. If not... Even my pessimism isn't willing to face those possibilities.

 

[alwysonvac]

Yes, you can’t rely on the numbers from China.

From the 3/22 New York Times article posted in the quote below.

It wasn’t until Dec. 31 that they alerted the World Health Organization.​

​

As the outbreak moved across China in early January, international travel continued as normal.​

​

The departures from Wuhan accelerated over the next three weeks. About 7 million people left in January, before travel was restricted.​

​

Thousands of people flew out of Wuhan to cities around the world.​

Over 900 people went to New York every month on average, based on recent trends …​

… over 2,200 to Sydney …​

… and over 15,000 people went to Bangkok, the most popular destination.​

​

It was only at the end of January that Wuhan was placed under a lockdown and airlines started canceling flights. By Jan. 31, when the United States announced it would shut down entry from China for non-Americans, travel out of Wuhan had basically stopped.​

How The Virus Got Out
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...irus-spread.html?referringSource=articleShare

In New York Times interactive style.

 

[TravelTime]

My aha moment was a few days before the SIP in California. I finally got really worried that we needed to take this virus seriously and life was about to change. Unfortunately, it was the day after we removed contingencies on a new home we were planning to purchase. We backed out of it last week and lost our entire deposit. I just can‘t see taking on a huge mortgage right now with life and work being so uncertain.

 

[cbyrne1174]

I just wish they had a somewhat accurate death rate for people who are non-obese, non smokers and under 65. I feel like that number would be more accurate to show how deadly the virus is.

 

[TravelTime]

I just wish they had a somewhat accurate death rate for people who are non-obese, non smokers and under 65. I feel like that number would be more accurate to show how deadly the virus is.

This article has some stats on death rate by age and co-morbid health conditions. It does not answer the question of the death rate for healthy people under 65.

Who is getting sick, and how sick? A breakdown of coronavirus risk by demographic factors

The new coronavirus is not an equal-opportunity killer. Here's what research has shown about who might be most at risk.

www.statnews.com

 

[paxsarah]

I know that the Georgia statistics published by the GA DPH just added a table with age, gender, and whether there are any underlying conditions (just a Y/N) for all COVID deaths in the state. I did note by skimming that almost all of the deaths of younger (say, <60) individuals involved an underlying condition. I don't know if other states are beginning to publish data to such a granular level.

 

[klpca]

All hospitals in town here have prohibited visitors for any reason.

My aunt just passed away in a hospital this weekend. Her son was only allowed to visit after her covid test had come back negative and she was on her deathbed. Just heartbreaking.

 

[dgalati]

It still surprises me than China got this under control, assuming their numbers are correct.

I don't believe their numbers. I feel to many in USA are working that are not essential. The curve cannot be flattened when many nonessentials are working and spreading the virus. Front line health care workers are being overwhelmed by

My aunt just passed away in a hospital this weekend. Her son was only allowed to visit after her covid test had come back negative and she was on her deathbed. Just heartbreaking.

My wife has been reallocated to the hospital where ever they need her. She has come home over the last few days with a heavy heart . Very sad to hear that many are isolated from families and friends when they are needed the most for comfort..

 

[Sapper]

I do not believe we will ever know the true numbers from China. I doubt they will ever know the true numbers either. There were horror stories coming out of Wuhan back in early February. People were dying in their beds because they were not allowed out of their homes. People were dying because the hospitals were not allowing more people in because they had no where to put them, no way to care for them. Assuming there is even a modicum of truth to this, how many of these deaths were counted as COVID, or as something else, or at all? Again, if this is even partially true, how many people were never tested? I think there is no way for anyone to ever know the full truth, and I have a feeling that is how China wants it.

 

[Sea Six]

Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death

A Flourish data visualisation by Robert Martin

public.flourish.studio

Does a decent job of putting it in perspective, I think. Most of what you mentioned doesn't make the top 15 on a daily basis, but...

Cool graphic! The covid is climbing fast!

 

[geekette]

My aunt just passed away in a hospital this weekend. Her son was only allowed to visit after her covid test had come back negative and she was on her deathbed. Just heartbreaking.

I'm so sorry! Yes, heartbreaking.

 

[geekette]

.....I feel to many in USA are working that are not essential. The curve cannot be flattened when many nonessentials are working and spreading the virus. ...

YES.

Too many people making too many shopping trips, too, compromising grocery store workers, etc. Delivery persons being run ragged, plus too much exposure, from over-ordering for delivery.

Please thank your wife for doing a very difficult job.

 

[geekette]

I do not believe we will ever know the true numbers from China. I doubt they will ever know the true numbers either. There were horror stories coming out of Wuhan back in early February. People were dying in their beds because they were not allowed out of their homes. People were dying because the hospitals were not allowing more people in because they had no where to put them, no way to care for them. Assuming there is even a modicum of truth to this, how many of these deaths were counted as COVID, or as something else, or at all? Again, if this is even partially true, how many people were never tested? I think there is no way for anyone to ever know the full truth, and I have a feeling that is how China wants it.

We're not ever going to know the truth here, either, because of lack of testing. None of our numbers will be absolute truth. At this point, it doesn't matter. Let's save as many lives as we can.

 

[Sapper]

We're not ever going to know the truth here, either, because of lack of testing. None of our numbers will be absolute truth. At this point, it doesn't matter. Let's save as many lives as we can.

Agree.

 

[WalnutBaron]

I just read an article that says the locals in Wuhan do not believe the government’s numbers. I googled it and there are many articles on this topic. It seems the death rate in Wuhan could be 10-20 times higher, depending on which article is citing it. It is too bad that China is hiding so much. Maybe this could have been prevented if China had disclosed early on.

Here's an interesting story from Radio Free Asia: residents of Wuhan are estimating that 46,800 people died from the virus, compared to the official number from the Chinese Communist Party of a little over 2,500. According to the story, about 500 families per day are being given urns containing the remains of their loved ones, and the government has transferred cremation workers as the ovens are working around the clock.

 

[TravelTime]

Here's an interesting story from Radio Free Asia: residents of Wuhan are estimating that 46,800 people died from the virus, compared to the official number from the Chinese Communist Party of a little over 2,500. According to the story, about 500 families per day are being given urns containing the remains of their loved ones, and the government has transferred cremation workers as the ovens are working around the clock.

I wonder how the government can hide such bug numbers!

 

[WalnutBaron]

Here's another story regarding the emerging gross distortions from the Chinese Communist Party on the number of deaths derived from the virus. The UK believes China is understating the number of deaths "by 15 to 40 times" the actual number and has said "there will be a reckoning when this is all over".

 

[CalGalTraveler]

We're not ever going to know the truth here, either, because of lack of testing. None of our numbers will be absolute truth. At this point, it doesn't matter. Let's save as many lives as we can.

True. We will never know the total number of cases. but people with the flu don't always get tested either.

However we will know for sure the number of US deaths and hospitalized because it's easier to track.

 

[geekette]

True. We will never know the total number of cases. but people with the flu don't always get tested either.

However we will know for sure the number of US deaths and hospitalized because it's easier to track.

Not so sure about that, either. With lack of testing, there could be under-reporting of cause of death, especially the early cases. I can't imagine dead people are getting tested when live people aren't.

With hospitals swamped, I'm not sure those counts will be completely accurate. Close enough, imo.

Totally agree regarding flu. I don't think I have ever been tested but have certainly had it plenty of times. Never any Tamiflu or whatever the scrip is. I ride it out, unwilling to leave home.

So if I were to be a flu death, the cause of death could be cardiac arrest. Once I'm dead, I doubt anyone is going to seek the true underlying cause.

With any reporting, data entry and/or retrieval errors happen all the time. Close enough is horrific enough. I don't know what the dx code for COVIN is, and if it's not in systems yet, or not entered correctly, each hospital might be coding it differently. I did enough auditor reports for a hospital to have caught a lot of problems. Some were in the original data, some were in the original report the auditors had.

Some things are easy to count, some things aren't. In the midst of chaos, I don't think that 505 vs 500 is significant enough to quibble over.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

I agree that early deaths and ICU visits may have been corona but not tested. Now as tests are more available I would think that people in ICUs/deaths these days are being tested even if non-ICU patients still can't get access to a test.

 

[geekette]

I agree that early deaths and ICU visits may have been corona but not tested. Now as tests are more available I would think that people in ICUs/deaths these days are being tested even if non-ICU patients still can't get access to a test.

Tests are not yet available! Even healthcare workers with symptoms aren't getting tested!

There might be tests in some areas, but I would not yet call them "available". We are still barely over 10,000 tests in my state of 6 mil. This is a long time at this point to have so few tests done.

I would certainly trust a healthcare worker that has seen confirmed Corona to know it when they see it, but that raises a question - if the test never happened, would that death be a tick mark under Corona or undetermined?

I am naturally a skeptic, in case that is not obvious ; )

 

[CalGalTraveler]

We both agree that less severe people are still not getting tested.

However I believe that most ICU patients/deaths are being tested to prevent infecting others so those figures are closer to the true situation.