Covid-19 Peak Projections and Ventilator Shortfalls

[CalGalTraveler]

A nice site from a non-profit supported by the Gates Foundation. Select entire US or by state. It's interesting to compare states and projected status in beds, ventilators and cases. Note: There is a wide confidence interval at this point so expect projections to change often as more data is collected and actions are taken.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

• Florida is projected to have a shortfall of 2029 ventilators, 843 ICU Beds and 6766 Covid-19 deaths to Aug 2019
• California is projected to have a shortfall of 1252 ventilators, 0 ICU beds and 4306 Covid-19 deaths to Aug 2019
• Washington is projected to have a shortfall of 352 ventilators, 110 ICU Beds and 1670 Covid-19 deaths to Aug 2019
• NY is projected to have a shortfall of 8855 ventilators, 10,352 ICU Beds, and 15,546 Covid-19 deaths to Aug 2019

USA Overall projected to have a shortfall of 26,753 ventilators, 15,103 ICU beds and 82,141 Covid-19 deaths to Aug 2019​

 

[cbyrne1174]

That's actually better than what I was thinking. I thought at least 70% of the population will get infected with a 0.5% death rate leading to over a million dead.

 

[TravelTime]

That's actually better than what I was thinking. I thought at least 70% of the population will get infected with a 0.5% death rate leading to over a million dead.

I saw this site a few days ago. I thought their projections were encouraging. 82K dead and flattening the curve by June 1st. Although this is still not great, it is better than many projections. I hope they are right.

 

[dgalati]

A nice site from a group supported by the Gates Foundation. Select entire US or by state. It's interesting to compare states and projected status in beds, ventilators and cases. Not that there is a wide confidence interval at this point.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Florida is projected to have a shortfall of 2029 ventilators, 843 ICU Beds and 6766 Covid-19 deaths to Aug 2019
California is projected to have a shortfall of 1252 ventilators, 0 ICU beds and 4306 Covid-19 deaths to Aug 2019
Washington is projected to have a shortfall of 352 ventilators, 110 ICU Beds and 1670 Covid-19 deaths to Aug 2019
NY is projected to have a shortfall of 8855 ventilators, 10,352 ICU Beds, and 15,546 Covid-19 deaths to Aug 2019

USA Overall projected to have a shortfall of 26,753 ventilators, 15,103 ICU beds and 82,141 Covid-19 deaths to Aug 2019

Here is another site updated about every 5 minutes. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Scroll down to see country daily dara.

 

[dgalati]

The numbers from Italy and Spain are staggering.

 

[paxsarah]

That's actually better than what I was thinking. I thought at least 70% of the population will get infected with a 0.5% death rate leading to over a million dead.

I had heard numbers like that in a context where no social distancing or sheltering in place was happening. Quite a number of jurisdictions have instituted such measures, so if they continue, the numbers won't be as bad.

 

[TravelTime]

Here is another site updated about every 5 minutes. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Scroll down to see country daily dara.

It still surprises me than China got this under control, assuming their numbers are correct.

 

[VacationForever]

I read somewhere that CPAP, BiPAP.. basically machines that help people with Sleep Apnea can be used in place of ventilators and they have to have a full mask so that health workers are protected. So if anyone knows of someone who may end up in the hospital, you may want to pack the sleep apnea machine along in case they run out of ventilators and the person needs one.

 

[geekette]

It still surprises me than China got this under control, assuming their numbers are correct.

they had some practice with SARS, MERS, etc., plus actually locked down vs what we are calling lockdown that really isn't. Most of us did not have masks at the ready, either.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

I wouldn't believe the numbers out of China right now.

Also the death projections on this site are only to Aug 1 19. They expect Covid-19 to continue until at least spring of 2021 and if the virus acts like the 1918 flu the worst will hit in fall 2020.

 

[dgalati]

It also breaks down daily numbers by each State .

 

[dgalati]

I read somewhere that CPAP, BiPAP.. basically machines that help people with Sleep Apnea can be used in place of ventilators and they have to have a full mask so that health workers are protected. So if anyone knows of someone who may end up in the hospital, you may want to pack the sleep apnea machine along in case they run out of ventilators and the person needs one.

All hospitals in town here have prohibited visitors for any reason.

 

[VacationForever]

All hospitals in town here have prohibited visitors for any reason.

I am aware of that. What I am saying is that a CPAP machine can be passed onto the hospital for the patient's use if patient needs a ventilator and they are out of it.

 

[Sea Six]

I remember the ebola projections a few years ago. Will GM and Ford come to the rescue with invasive ventilators? Will someone invent a machine to squeeze the plastic bottle on the manual ventilators? Many things can be done about this. I can also see using the idle cruise ships as hospital beds for people who don't need intensive care. I'm talking people who had minor surgery and just need to recuperate for a few days before going home. Gunshot victims, etc. NOT covid-19 patients. Do the surgery on the Navy ships, then put the patients in the cruise ship cabins. That could free up a LOT of beds in the hospitals. I bet Chicago could use a ship like that for gunshot victims!

 

[bluehende]

We can hope they are right. The big difference between this model and others is the prediction of the peak on Apr 15. Most predict later. It also does not define continuing of strong social distancing measures. The parameters on the Kings College model was a reduction by 75% of social contacts. I know they had studies they cited as to why they used this number. That reduction in social contacts reduced the death rate by 90%. It still chills me to be rooting for only 81k deaths.

 

[TravelTime]

It still chills me to be rooting for only 81k deaths.

I agree that it is chilling to be rooting for “only” 81K deaths. That is still a lot of deaths especially if one is in your family. This is very scary.

 

[Sea Six]

I agree that it is chilling to be rooting for “only” 81K deaths. That is still a lot of deaths especially if one is in your family. This is very scary.

It might help to see a comparison of these projections to DUI deaths, traffic accidents, drug overdoses, gun violence, and murders in general. We need to put this in perspective.

 

[WalnutBaron]

It still surprises me than China got this under control, assuming their numbers are correct.

They aren't correct. They are made out of whole cloth, just like all of the information emerging from China. Remember, this is the regime that hid the presence of the virus in Wuhan--even from the Chinese people--for 6 precious weeks before informing the world in a very quiet way on 31 December that a mysterious flu-like virus was expanding in that city. By then, untold thousands had not only been exposed, but had freely traveled from Wuhan throughout the world.

This study from Washington University postulates that China's actual infection rate is understated by a factor of as much as 10 times.

 

[Synergy]

Florida's projection looked a lot better yesterday, it said we'd likely pushed the peak to May 15th and wouldn't ever see a bed shortage. It felt overly optimistic but I was willing to assume that all the idiot spring breakers had taken their infections home. Today sounds more realistic and still not as bad as I fear. We shall see...

 

[TravelTime]

It might help to see a comparison of these projections to DUI deaths, traffic accidents, drug overdoses, gun violence, and murders in general. We need to put this in perspective.

Here are the top 10 causes of death in the USA and number of annual deaths (based on 2017). If we “only” have 82K Covid-19 deaths, it will still rank in the top 10. Dr Fauci is projecting 100,000 to 200,000. I hope he is wrong. It is interesting that we already have 160K deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases (lung conditions) and another 56K from influenza and pneumonia. Those are both illness categories most similar to Covid-19. Taken together, we have about 216K deaths per year from those two.

The top 10 leading causes of death in the United States

Just 10 diseases account for almost three-quarters of all deaths in the U.S. Heart disease is the biggest killer, followed by cancer, then chronic lower respiratory disease. The tenth disease on the list is suicide. This article looks at the facts and figures and asks whether any of these...

www.medicalnewstoday.com

 

[x3 skier]

It might help to see a comparison of these projections to DUI deaths, traffic accidents, drug overdoses, gun violence, and murders in general. We need to put this in perspective.

COVID-19 vs. the Flu

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

I posted this in another thread but IF the 80000 number is correct, it is 1.3 to 6.3 times worse than the annual deaths from the flu.

This is what keeps me optimistic.

Cheers

 

[Synergy]

It might help to see a comparison of these projections to DUI deaths, traffic accidents, drug overdoses, gun violence, and murders in general. We need to put this in perspective.

Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death

A Flourish data visualisation by Robert Martin

public.flourish.studio

Does a decent job of putting it in perspective, I think. Most of what you mentioned doesn't make the top 15 on a daily basis, but...

 

[MrockStar]

I remember the ebola projections a few years ago. Will GM and Ford come to the rescue with invasive ventilators? Will someone invent a machine to squeeze the plastic bottle on the manual ventilators? Many things can be done about this. I can also see using the idle cruise ships as hospital beds for people who don't need intensive care. I'm talking people who had minor surgery and just need to recuperate for a few days before going home. Gunshot victims, etc. NOT covid-19 patients. Do the surgery on the Navy ships, then put the patients in the cruise ship cabins. That could free up a LOT of beds in the hospitals. I bet Chicago could use a ship like that for gunshot victims!

The USS Comfort Navy hospital is now docked in New York Harbor, As dispatched by the Commander in Chief of the United States Military.

 

[TravelTime]

They aren't correct. They are made out of whole cloth, just like all of the information emerging from China. Remember, this is the regime that hid the presence of the virus in Wuhan--even from the Chinese people--for 6 precious weeks before informing the world in a very quiet way on 31 December that a mysterious flu-like virus was expanding in that city. By then, untold thousands had not only been exposed, but had freely traveled from Wuhan throughout the world.

This study from Washington University postulates that China's actual infection rate is understated by a factor of as much as 10 times.

I just read an article that says the locals in Wuhan do not believe the government’s numbers. I googled it and there are many articles on this topic. It seems the death rate in Wuhan could be 10-20 times higher, depending on which article is citing it. It is too bad that China is hiding so much. Maybe this could have been prevented if China had disclosed early on.

 

[bluehende]

I just read an article that says the locals in Wuhan do not believe the government’s numbers. I googled it and there are many articles on this topic. It seems the death rate in Wuhan could be 10-20 times higher, depending on which article is citing it. It is too bad that China is hiding so much. Maybe this could have been prevented if China had disclosed early on.

Unfortunately we did nothing with the warning we got. I feel that an earlier warning would have been met with even more shrugs of indifference as during that period this danger seemed even more remote. I was guilty of this too to a point. I wish I remember the date that I had my oh #@%$ moment. That was the day I heard that this disease had up to a 14 day latency period and asymptomatic cases could shed the virus.