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Coronavirus Wreaking Havoc on Your Travel Plans?

Trip of a lifetime with no end in sight -- life on small boats stuck at sea.


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Richard
 
COVID-19 asymptomatic in over 80 per cent of cases, cruise ship study finds.




Richard

Latest study. I've wondered about all this "asymptomatic carrier" business. IF such a HIGH population of a supposedly HUGE infectious disease was supposedly super contagious then we should have ALL had this dang virus by now. Which makes one wonder just because kids can be carriers doesn't mean they will automatically infect everyone. Even the earliest studies in China showed close family didn't all get infected-why not? Some were "asymptomatic" but still were members of a family in CLOSE contact for days and never infected.
 
Unfortunately armchair, amateur, intuition-based analysis rarely solves complex science problems (unless you’re Einstein).

Here’s an article that might put a qualified reader on track towards the answer you’re looking for. It’s outside my field, so I haven’t read it.
Interesting- they were still working with data from up to March 25.
"epidemic and the impact of mitigatory social distancing. More generally, there are uncertainties in all parameters of our model and these would translate into uncertainties in forecasts and estimates"--ie they took their best guess and tried to plug it into a computer. India is interesting as well due to the amount in poverty and large family groups. Like Brazil-where 13 mil live in what can be crowded and unsanitary favelas-any disease is gonna rip through the less economically secure. I was reading today the differences in the San Fran Bay population and testing-2 populations side by side-one wealthy and white, one mostly latinex and working class/poor-guess who had high infection rates vs who had ZERO?
It is becoming obvious that the longer the exposure, the closer the contact, the more crowded or enclosed the space-the higher risk your exposure will result in a symptomatic infection that will lead to hospitalization/fatality-and even then you still need to be susceptible (you can see that here as the majority of deaths came from care homes). Even in the Bay mass testing study the great majority of cases were asymptomatic.
 
Singapore to halt construction on new airport terminal for two years.


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Richard
 
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