• The TUGBBS forums are completely free and open to the public and exist as the absolute best place for owners to get help and advice about their timeshares for more than 30 years!

    Join Tens of Thousands of other Owners just like you here to get any and all Timeshare questions answered 24 hours a day!
  • TUG started 30 years ago in October 1993 as a group of regular Timeshare owners just like you!

    Read about our 30th anniversary: Happy 30th Birthday TUG!
  • TUG has a YouTube Channel to produce weekly short informative videos on popular Timeshare topics!

    Free memberships for every 50 subscribers!

    Visit TUG on Youtube!
  • TUG has now saved timeshare owners more than $21,000,000 dollars just by finding us in time to rescind a new Timeshare purchase! A truly incredible milestone!

    Read more here: TUG saves owners more than $21 Million dollars
  • Sign up to get the TUG Newsletter for free!

    60,000+ subscribing owners! A weekly recap of the best Timeshare resort reviews and the most popular topics discussed by owners!
  • Our official "end my sales presentation early" T-shirts are available again! Also come with the option for a free membership extension with purchase to offset the cost!

    All T-shirt options here!
  • A few of the most common links here on the forums for newbies and guests!

Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.

Status
Not open for further replies.

bluehende

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
4,507
Reaction score
3,967
Points
598
It seems a bit speculative on his/her part to suggest that the virus istelf has become 4x more severe. Perhaps, due to age or geographical area, more individuals have chosen to visit a hospital. :ponder:
Please read the post I replied to. That was in response to someone asking how we know there are more cases. My post shows that if cases are not going up (not true) then the disease has somehow managed to get 4x as many people in the hospital. We all know that is not true.
 

WVBaker

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2015
Messages
2,487
Reaction score
2,087
Points
323
Please read the post I replied to. That was in response to someone asking how we know there are more cases. My post shows that if cases are not going up (not true) then the disease has somehow managed to get 4x as many people in the hospital. We all know that is not true.

That is true however, there's no evidence that the virus itself, which you noted has in and of itself, become "4x severe". I've seen no evidence that the virus has mutated to 4x it's original strength.
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
5,753
Reaction score
3,076
Points
348
Please read the post I replied to. That was in response to someone asking how we know there are more cases. My post shows that if cases are not going up (not true) then the disease has somehow managed to get 4x as many people in the hospital. We all know that is not true.
For a few weeks people were afraid to go to the hospital and a lot of treatments have been postponed. Many hospitals were empty waiting for Covid patients that did not arrive.
While it is possible that the new hospitalizations are related to Covid, it is also possible things are just going back closer to normal and people are seeking the treatments they need. From the information provided it is impossible to tell.
 

Ken555

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2005
Messages
14,522
Reaction score
5,638
Points
898
Location
Los Angeles
Resorts Owned
Westin Kierland
Sheraton Desert Oasis
That is true however, there's no evidence that the virus itself, which you noted has in and of itself, become "4x severe". I've seen no evidence that the virus has mutated to 4x it's original strength.

How do you define "strength"? :p

There is some evidence to support that it has become more infectious.

New, more infectious strain of COVID-19 now dominates global cases of virus: study
 
  • Like
Reactions: jme

bluehende

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
4,507
Reaction score
3,967
Points
598
That is true however, there's no evidence that the virus itself, which you noted has in and of itself, become "4x severe". I've seen no evidence that the virus has mutated to 4x it's original strength.
There is none. The european mutation has been shown to spread easier with actual evidence it is not more severe. There is no evidence either way if it is actually less severe. The early studies were very focused on seeing whether it was more severe as early data out of europe looked worse than china.
 

Ken555

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2005
Messages
14,522
Reaction score
5,638
Points
898
Location
Los Angeles
Resorts Owned
Westin Kierland
Sheraton Desert Oasis
In regards to interpretation of the numbers, could it be that we are (all) confused by what the numbers actually indicate? A friend told me about the Simpson's Paradox and how it may apply to C19 numbers, and sent me a post by a doctor which basically said (I'm paraphrasing the posts below):

In essence the USA is experiencing:
- increasing total positive cases
- increasing hospitalizations
- increasing deaths

For a time it appeared that hospitalizations were decreasing and total positive cases were flat. It would be reasonable to assume that means "young people are getting it now, not old people?", or "we've become better at treating it, so the death rate has fallen", or "we're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases". There is some truth to these conclusions since more young people getting it (for now), we have become a bit better at treating it, and we are testing more and finding more cases. But none of these conclusions explain the effect.

The C19 outbreak is not one outbreak spread evenly across the US; it is many outbreaks spread unevenly. We need to look at state and county data to understand the spread. As an example, look at AZ and TX where cases and deaths have been increasing for weeks. FL is similar (but their data is incomplete...on purpose, thank you FL). Look just at Miami and Houston, and it's worse.

This is where Simpson's paradox comes into play. "If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results". This doctor continues to say that in the coming weeks it will be horrible, as dozens of areas go through what happened in NYC earlier this year. ICUs will exceed capacity, ventilators rationed, and too many deaths.

A short (4.5 min) video on Simpson's paradox can be found at

For just one example, let's look at Phoenix.

Phoenix, AZ (Maricopa County)

Positive Cases
(there is an eight day reporting delay)

screenshot.png


Hospitalizations (21 day reporting delay, so the numbers are "likely to increase")

screenshot.png


Deaths

screenshot.png
 

jme

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 12, 2005
Messages
4,818
Reaction score
3,121
Points
598
Location
Southeast,TUG since '98
Resorts Owned
Marriotts:
Grande Ocean x 6
Barony x 2
OceanWatch x 1
Manor Club x 1
.
Waterside by Spin x 2
Sheraton Bdw Pln x2
ChurchSt/Charleston x2
That is true however, there's no evidence that the virus itself, which you noted has in and of itself, become "4x severe".
I've seen no evidence that the virus has mutated to 4x it's original strength.


Bluehende did not say that the virus' strength was "4x more severe" as you misquoted.

There's a huge difference in being more severe and being more contagious, which is a fact.
For some reason its transmissibility is far greater now. And in fact, it's not 4X, but 10X more contagious, according to at least one report.
That explains the extremely high number number of new cases, BUT at the same time we've learned from some scientific sources
that it might be less virulent, hence the lower death rates. It makes sense.




 

Ken555

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2005
Messages
14,522
Reaction score
5,638
Points
898
Location
Los Angeles
Resorts Owned
Westin Kierland
Sheraton Desert Oasis
I have a few, but at this point keeping my thoughts to myself b/c of the man-splaining that goes on in this thread.

I certainly respect that you wish to keep your thoughts to yourself, but if you won't participate then do us the courtesy of not criticizing others, either. That includes insulting us by declaring our posts are "man-splaining" when we are simply trying to help educate our fellow TUG members.
 

Cornell

TUG Member
Joined
Oct 30, 2016
Messages
3,622
Reaction score
5,828
Points
448
Location
Chicago
I certainly respect that you wish to keep your thoughts to yourself, but if you won't participate then do us the courtesy of not criticizing others, either. That includes insulting us by declaring our posts are "man-splaining" when we are simply trying to help educate our fellow TUG members.
will do.
 

jme

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 12, 2005
Messages
4,818
Reaction score
3,121
Points
598
Location
Southeast,TUG since '98
Resorts Owned
Marriotts:
Grande Ocean x 6
Barony x 2
OceanWatch x 1
Manor Club x 1
.
Waterside by Spin x 2
Sheraton Bdw Pln x2
ChurchSt/Charleston x2
I have a few, but at this point keeping my thoughts to myself b/c of the man-splaining that goes on in this thread.

I find that phenomenon to be quite necessary at times.
 

WVBaker

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2015
Messages
2,487
Reaction score
2,087
Points
323
Bluehende did not say that the virus' strength was "4x more severe" as you misquoted.

There's a huge difference in being more severe and being more contagious, which is a fact.
For some reason its transmissibility is far greater now. And in fact, it's not 4X, but 10X more contagious, according to at least one report.
That explains the extremely high number number of new cases, BUT at the same time we've learned from some scientific sources
that it might be less virulent, hence the lower death rates. It makes sense.






I suppose I'll stand by my interpretation of "... then this virus has become 4 times more severe ..." and you're free to stand by yours. ;)
 

bluehende

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
4,507
Reaction score
3,967
Points
598
I have a few, but at this point keeping my thoughts to myself b/c of the man-splaining that goes on in this thread.
I am sure that this is aimed at me. I respectfully ask you to reread my original post and your reply. It certainly looked to me that you were being dismissive of the actual data and the post was intended more to annoy than elaborate.
 

Cornell

TUG Member
Joined
Oct 30, 2016
Messages
3,622
Reaction score
5,828
Points
448
Location
Chicago
I am sure that this is aimed at me. I respectfully ask you to reread my original post and your reply. It certainly looked to me that you were being dismissive of the actual data and the post was intended more to annoy than elaborate.
Actually I wasn't. Aimed for a few people here. There is an undercurrent of condescension in so many of the comments. It makes having a thoughtful conversation almost impossible.

Look @ comment #56 "What planet are you from"? That's one of several examples I could point out.
 

Ken555

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2005
Messages
14,522
Reaction score
5,638
Points
898
Location
Los Angeles
Resorts Owned
Westin Kierland
Sheraton Desert Oasis
Actually I wasn't. Aimed for a few people here. There is an undercurrent of condescension in so many of the comments. It makes having a thoughtful conversation almost impossible.

Look @ comment #56 "What planet are you from"? That's one of several examples I could point out.

In all fairness, this applies to most of the frequent posters here, including you.

ETA: I note that you laughed at this post. Seems you can dish it out but don't like it when it bounces back, eh?
 
Last edited:

Passepartout

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Feb 10, 2007
Messages
28,461
Reaction score
17,213
Points
1,299
Location
Twin Falls, Eye-Duh-Hoe
Dr. Fauci said today that with the rapid increase of cases in Arizona, Texas, and Arizona, the average age of those testing positive has dropped by 20 years.
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
5,753
Reaction score
3,076
Points
348
Dr. Fauci said today that with the rapid increase of cases in Arizona, Texas, and Arizona, the average age of those testing positive has dropped by 20 years.
This is really good news
 

Ralph Sir Edward

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2013
Messages
2,873
Reaction score
3,501
Points
448
Location
Plano, Texas
Cognative dissonance.

If the average age dropped by 20 years, but the number of severe cases (hospitalizations) are sharply rising; that implies that young people are not a "immune" as they are touted to be. . . .

This is a good thing?
 

Ken555

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2005
Messages
14,522
Reaction score
5,638
Points
898
Location
Los Angeles
Resorts Owned
Westin Kierland
Sheraton Desert Oasis
Dr. Fauci said today that with the rapid increase of cases in Arizona, Texas, and Arizona, the average age of those testing positive has dropped by 20 years.

He also said:

"We are still knee-deep in the first wave of this. And I would say, this would not be considered a wave. It was a surge, or a resurgence of infections superimposed upon a baseline," Fauci said in Facebook Live interview with National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Francis Collins.

And

He specifically expressed dismay over people congregating in crowds and not wearing masks and inadequate attention being paid to guidelines on reopening.

"We're going to continue to be in a lot of trouble," he said. "And there's going to be a lot of hurt if that does not stop."


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top