I see the value of redemption as actually increasing with my limited experience. I "happened" to book at the right time about a month ago for a March stay. I booked 7 nights at St Regis in Singapore and it required 266K Bonvoy points. I was able to add points to my two 35K certificate when reserving and it took only 196K Bonvoy points from my account. It has since gone up to about 350K to redeem for the room during the same period but I am not using this new point requirement. It costs about USD3,350 for cash stay.
My cost was $95+$95 (for the 2 credit cards membership) + 196K Bonvoy points, which results in about 1.7 per point value. for the 196K Bonvoy points.
If I use Points Guy's valuation of .007 cents, I am looking at my cost of $190+$1,372 = $1,562 to book a $3,350 stay. I get their famous breakfast thrown in for free because I am Titanium elite. That's really good redemption value.
I'm not saying I don't still earn and use the points. I'm not arguing with anyone here, my thoughts on this are for dialog conversation like we would do around the pool.
The points just seem to stack up with the process of doing business with MVC. I even bought points last year when they came with a 70% bonus. Buying them with such a bonus seems like you could get more value/$.
We burn through the free night certificates with our road trips. With the reservations I'm working on, let's say 5 nights, you get a free night anyway (book 5, pay for 4).
The free breakfast is offered with many loyalty programs. As Titanium you'd get that both with a points redemption or cash.
My question is do I want to chase these points with my MF's? I'm not sure. I like to play with numbers but juggling the math with point/miles valuation gets tedious. It can just go on and on.
We've used United and Aeroplan for our flights over and back on this upcoming trip. Business class. I compared the miles + tax $ to a similar cash roundtrip (the cheapest I saw was on SAS). The redemption is 0.02718. That's nearly 3.5x the rate of return I'm seeing at the best with the European hotels, which are the ones we'd most likely redeem at.
When transferring Chase or Amex points to most airline programs the rate is 1:1. Marriott is 3:1. This makes the transferrable points come to 3x the value of Marriott as they're more flexible to the programs you can transfer to.