Bowl Predictions 2021: College Football Playoff Predictions for Top Teams

[mjm1]

I’m a Notre Dame fan, so am very disappointed by Kelly’s decision at this time. Coaching changes impact recruiting, which is one of the primary reasons universities want to hire a new coach early in the process, but the negative impact of leaving a team, especially in this situation, can be devastating and runs counter to coaches saying “we need to be all in.”

I understand the pressure of coaching at schools like ND, especially with a higher educational bar to deal with. Kelly hadn‘t won a Championship, so while he is the winningest coach in their history, fans will always say “but he never won a championship.” The last three coaches at LSU each won a championship, so that high bar will be there for him, but he won’t have the high educational bar to deal with. Just the other SEC teams recruiting the talent.

With regard to ND, I hope the players and remaining coaches use this as inspiration to play well and win whatever game(s) they have left this season, whether it be in the playoffs, or Fiesta or Peach Bowl as some analysts predict.

Best regards.

Mike

 

[CPNY]

I went to “the game” in michigan last weekend, what an atmosphere

 

[am1]

I’m a Notre Dame fan, so am very disappointed by Kelly’s decision at this time. Coaching changes impact recruiting, which is one of the primary reasons universities want to hire a new coach early in the process, but the negative impact of leaving a team, especially in this situation, can be devastating and runs counter to coaches saying “we need to be all in.”

I understand the pressure of coaching at schools like ND, especially with a higher educational bar to deal with. Kelly hadn‘t won a Championship, so while he is the winningest coach in their history, fans will always say “but he never won a championship.” The last three coaches at LSU each won a championship, so that high bar will be there for him, but he won’t have the high educational bar to deal with. Just the other SEC teams recruiting the talent.

With regard to ND, I hope the players and remaining coaches use this as inspiration to play well and win whatever game(s) they have left this season, whether it be in the playoffs, or Fiesta or Peach Bowl as some analysts predict.

Best regards.

Mike

In one way best of coaches to leave asap so recruits are not misled and or left out in the cold with no viable spots. Otherwise I would be okay with coaches signing contacts with no opt out until after all games are played.

I knew I was not signing with the coach but with the school. After a year my coach resigned, not for a big money offer but to spend more time with his kids.

Most college coaches if they are content where they are then they are not right for the job.

In college football there are two less destination jobs. Yet Michigan State has become one. I guess if you are paid enough, expectations are low enough and you do not mind living in that part of the state it can be considered a destination job. But NIck Saban did not think so.

 

[am1]

But really destination jobs seem to be:

UM
osu
USC (pete caroll left)
Alabama
Texas
Georgia
Florida
Clemson for the moment
Most times ND and Oklahoma

 

[Superchief]

Paul Daugherty, an excellent sportswriter with the Cincinnati Enquirer, had a great idea regarding college coaches. He suggests they have 5 year contracts that both the coach and university are bound by. This allows them to go through at least one recruiting class and will reduce the frequent jumping from school to school which leaves the players and students in a bad situation. Signing season should also be delayed so coaches can at least stay with their teams through bowl games. Kelly is not well respected in Cincinnati after leaving the team prior to their bowl appearance.

 

[dayooper]

Paul Daugherty, an excellent sportswriter with the Cincinnati Enquirer, had a great idea regarding college coaches. He suggests they have 5 year contracts that both the coach and university are bound by. This allows them to go through at least one recruiting class and will reduce the frequent jumping from school to school which leaves the players and students in a bad situation. Signing season should also be delayed so coaches can at least stay with their teams through bowl games. Kelly is not well respected in Cincinnati after leaving the team prior to their bowl appearance.

Brian Kelly was the head coach at Grand Valley State University (Grand Rapids Michigan) when I played for Northern Michigan University in the early ‘90’s. He’s been a head coach for a long time.

 

[pedro47]

If Georgia beats Alabama, Alabama has no right to be in the top four with two losses. There are many other more deserving teams.

Now if Alabama beat Georgia by two (2) touchdowns are more. Who is #1.

I just looked at the light rate schedule of Cincinnati. They only played one team in the top 25. Yes! They did defeat Notre-Dame.

The final four (4) ranking is going to be very interesting. Especially if the committee members are looking at each football team scheduling. IMHO.

 

[pedro47]

This we all know either Georgia or Alabama is going to lose this Saturday football game.
If Georgia losses they would have one lost.
if Alabama wins they would have one lost.
Who is #1.

 

[Rolltydr]

Now if Alabama beat Georgia by two (2) touchdowns are more. Who is #1.

I just looked at the light rate schedule of Cincinnati. They only played one team in the top 25. Yes! They did defeat Notre-Dame.

The final four (4) ranking is going to be very interesting. Especially if the committee members are looking at each football team scheduling. IMHO.

If, and it is a huge if, Alabama beats Georgia I believe the committee will move them to #1over Michigan. Georgia has been the consensus #1 team all year. Due to injuries, Alabama is down to 1 scholarship running back. With Georgia’s stifling defense, I think the committee would place more weight on an Alabama win over them than a Michigan win over Iowa.

I’m not saying I believe Alabama is the best team. I don’t. They have several flaws this year and have been exposed many times. The offensive line is weak which I think will be our death knell against the Bulldogs. Bur, we have played a very strong schedule and if we were to luck up and beat what almost everyone has considered the best team in the country all year, it would be deserving of the #1 ranking.

 

[Rolltydr]

Go Blue!


Thats all!

Who?

 

[Rolltydr]

For some perspective on the top 6. This is the number of wins against Top 40 teams according to the various ranking entities:

Top 40 Wins Per
FPI Sag SP+
Georgia 6 6 6
Michigan 4 3 5
Alabama 8 7 6
Cincinnati 1 1 1
Oklahoma St 3 4 3
Notre Dame 3 2 1

While Cincinnati has had a great year, their schedule just doesn't match up with a Power 5 team. There is something to be said for playing a strong opponent most Saturdays, rather than once a season. I'm a strong believer that the Power 5 should break away and only play games amongst themselves with their own championship. It would make for great games every weekend and would eliminate the "money" games that are so boring and played in front of half empty stadiums. IMHO.

 

[pedro47]

For some perspective on the top 6. This is the number of wins against Top 40 teams according to the various ranking entities:

Top 40 Wins Per
FPI Sag SP+
Georgia 6 6 6
Michigan 4 3 5
Alabama 8 7 6
Cincinnati 1 1 1
Oklahoma St 3 4 3
Notre Dame 3 2 1

While Cincinnati has had a great year, their schedule just doesn't match up with a Power 5 team. There is something to be said for playing a strong opponent most Saturdays, rather than once a season. I'm a strong believer that the Power 5 should break away and only play games amongst themselves with their own championship. It would make for great games every weekend and would eliminate the "money" games that are so boring and played in front of half empty stadiums. IMHO.

Thanks you Rolltydr, This is true data I liked it.

 

[am1]

For some perspective on the top 6. This is the number of wins against Top 40 teams according to the various ranking entities:

Top 40 Wins Per
FPI Sag SP+
Georgia 6 6 6
Michigan 4 3 5
Alabama 8 7 6
Cincinnati 1 1 1
Oklahoma St 3 4 3
Notre Dame 3 2 1

While Cincinnati has had a great year, their schedule just doesn't match up with a Power 5 team. There is something to be said for playing a strong opponent most Saturdays, rather than once a season. I'm a strong believer that the Power 5 should break away and only play games amongst themselves with their own championship. It would make for great games every weekend and would eliminate the "money" games that are so boring and played in front of half empty stadiums. IMHO.

In a few years the power 5 will not be the power 5 but an even larger gap then currently exists with the weak 5.
This was the time to eliminate/merge a conference but instead adding more schools is a way for people to keep their jobs.

 

[am1]

Also make needing a winning record for bowl eligibility. As wins are going to be easier going forward.

 

[TheHolleys87]

eliminate the "money" games that are so boring and played in front of half empty stadiums

That would devastate those "little" schools' athletic budgets, wouldn't it?

 

[pedro47]

That would devastate those "little" schools' athletic budgets, wouldn't it?

This is why small university athletic programs must play the larger universities with the big BUDGET to make their budget worked. IMHO.

 

[am1]

This is why small university athletic programs must play the larger universities with the big BUDGET to make their budget worked. IMHO.

They plus play those games to operate as they currently do. They can always adjust their budget and not make their player tackle dummies.

 

[x3 skier]

Considering Notre Dame’s record and score differential in the BCS and CFP Games, perhaps they should be a Group of 5 team in the expanded (or even currently) rating. Then Cincinnati would have no wins against top rated teams and solve the Committee worries.

Cheers

 

[Superchief]

For some perspective on the top 6. This is the number of wins against Top 40 teams according to the various ranking entities:

Top 40 Wins Per
FPI Sag SP+
Georgia 6 6 6
Michigan 4 3 5
Alabama 8 7 6
Cincinnati 1 1 1
Oklahoma St 3 4 3
Notre Dame 3 2 1

While Cincinnati has had a great year, their schedule just doesn't match up with a Power 5 team. There is something to be said for playing a strong opponent most Saturdays, rather than once a season. I'm a strong believer that the Power 5 should break away and only play games amongst themselves with their own championship. It would make for great games every weekend and would eliminate the "money" games that are so boring and played in front of half empty stadiums. IMHO.

I'm not sure what this information is based on, but UC beat SMU (ranked 19 by AP and 16 by coaches poll at the time), and will play Houston (#16AP) this week. They also beat #5 Notre Dame. I'm pretty sure they beat a few other top 40 teams, but really only pay attention to top 25. What top 10 or top 25 teams did Oklahoma State beat? Didn't Oklahoma State lose to a team not ranked in the top 10? UC and Houston will be joining the Big 12 in the near future, so we will see how well they do there. If UC beats Houston, they deserve the top four rating.

I agree that Alabama should get in if they beat Georgia. UC only lost to Georgia by 3 points in the Peach Bowl last year.

 

[Rolltydr]

That would devastate those "little" schools' athletic budgets, wouldn't it?

Yes. They would have to adjust to living within their means like other businesses. Remember, football is supposed to be an extracurricular endeavor for most schools. Only a very few programs actually make a profit on football.
NCAA Finances

The Power 5 schools are different. They have become a semi-pro league with billions of dollars available to them, collectively. I would argue their purpose is to generate interest in the football program, and then by extension to the university at large, through advertising purchased on football and other sports programming. Enrollment at the University of Alabama has doubled since Nick Saban became the head coach. The majority of the increase has been from out of state students. Much of that increase can be directly attributed to the success of the football program and the advertising outreach associated with it. Small schools do not have those same opportunities and never will. They just have no chance of keeping up in this arms race so they need to find another niche.

 

[Rolltydr]

I'm not sure what this information is based on, but UC beat SMU (ranked 19 by AP and 16 by coaches poll at the time), and will play Houston (#16AP) this week. They also beat #5 Notre Dame. I'm pretty sure they beat a few other top 40 teams, but really only pay attention to top 25. What top 10 or top 25 teams did Oklahoma State beat? Didn't Oklahoma State lose to a team not ranked in the top 10? UC and Houston will be joining the Big 12 in the near future, so we will see how well they do there. If UC beats Houston, they deserve the top four rating.

I agree that Alabama should get in if they beat Georgia. UC only lost to Georgia by 3 points in the Peach Bowl last year.

I copied this from a tweet by Chris Fallica of ESPN Just to show how Cincinnati fits in some of the power rankings. FPI=Football Power Index, Sag=Sagarin ranking, and I’m not sure what SP+ is. They are computer generated rankings based on various criteria and used to be part of the old BCS formula. I’m not sure if they are part of the discussions by the CFP committee. If you remember, the computer rankings could vary quite a bit from the human polls.

 

[Superchief]

I copied this from a tweet by Chris Fallica of ESPN Just to show how Cincinnati fits in some of the power rankings. FPI=Football Power Index, Sag=Sagarin ranking, and I’m not sure what SP+ is. They are computer generated rankings based on various criteria and used to be part of the old BCS formula. I’m not sure if they are part of the discussions by the CFP committee. If you remember, the computer rankings could vary quite a bit from the human polls.

I don't trust any ratings generated by computers, or most ESPN journalists for that matter. The coaches and player polls are the ones that reflect the true strength of teams. Clemson and LSU weren't very good this year, but were likely considered to be higher rated in the computer models.

 

[Rolltydr]

I don't trust any ratings generated by computers, or most ESPN journalists for that matter. The coaches and player polls are the ones that reflect the true strength of teams. Clemson and LSU weren't very good this year, but were likely considered to be higher rated in the computer models.

Any poll is biased based on the biases of the person(s) doing it. That said, I don't like the coaches poll because a coach really only sees the teams he plays against. He may have no real knowledge of many of the teams he ranks. Also, many of the coaches hand off that voting duty to someone in their SID office. As far as I know, there is no player poll but the same would be true of them, they only see their opponents for the most part. I wasn't advocating for computer polls, just trying to show some relative strengths/weaknesses of the top teams schedules.

 

[Superchief]

Any poll is biased based on the biases of the person(s) doing it. That said, I don't like the coaches poll because a coach really only sees the teams he plays against. He may have no real knowledge of many of the teams he ranks. Also, many of the coaches hand off that voting duty to someone in their SID office. As far as I know, there is no player poll but the same would be true of them, they only see their opponents for the most part. I wasn't advocating for computer polls, just trying to show some relative strengths/weaknesses of the top teams schedules.

The problem with any forecasting model is that a lot of assumptions are made regarding how to weight each factor and what factors to include. I work with models all the time in marketing research and have found most to have major flaws. ESPN is also highly biased to major market teams, so their analysts pick and choose data that will support their positions. These models also don't include the coaching and emotional factors. A good coach can get his/her team at their emotional peak when it is needed. Some coaches are also better at making adjustments at half time. Coach Fickel at Cincinnati is a great coach and motivator and gets the most from his talent. I just hope he stays and doesn't go to Notre Dame or another top conference school.

 

[Rolltydr]

It doesn't sound like he's going to ND. They're promoting the DC according to the latest reports.

I agree Fickel has done well, so far. But there are many lower and mid-level successes who have flamed out when they moved up to the big boys. As I said in an earlier post, it is much easier to get up and prepare for 1 strong opponent during a season than to have to do it every weekend. And, successful Power 5 coaches have to recruit full-time. And be great at it. Just ask Dan Mullen. The Power 5 is a totally different animal and it will chew up and spit out, otherwise, successful coaches. Fickel may be a success at that level. I'm just saying we won't know until he does it.

I don't disagree with anything you said about polls/models or ESPN.