All,
Thanks for the good comments, I appreciate the insight and assistance. I should be clear that I definitely lean towards a resale at one of the Florida properties, to keep acquisition cost and MFs as modest as possible.
So, let me try the following hypothetical, assuming I want to go to Aulani in June 2015. Assume I've bought 100 SSR points resale, and that I want to book a 2BR OV (490 points) at 7 months prior to check-in.
I believe the following would work, and appreciate corrections:
1) My 100 point SSR has a June anniversary
2) I want to visit Aulani June 13-June 20, 2015 (or thereabouts, to match my week 25 MOC)
3) My 2014 Usage Year points are banked into 2015
4) My 2015 Usage Year points load 6/1/2015. I clearly have 200 SSR points available
5) I could borrow my 2016 points, but I don't because I'll need them for something else
So, how do I come up with the 290 points that I am short? Besides just writing a check for $2,900 and renting them.
1) I offer a prime summer week in a 3BR at Worldmark in Maui for 160 Points (or 10 nights in a 2BR for 200 -- you get the idea).
2) If a DVC owner accepts, they transfer me 160 Points
3) Assume they transfer me 2014 Usage Year Points, the points must be no earlier than July anniverary so I can bank them into 2015 (and use them in June 2015)
4) This first trade should occur in March 2014, so it is still in my 2013 Usage Year and counts as my one permitted 2013 transfer
5) I find someone else who wants the same or similar trade, to close the needed points
6) This second trade must occur after June 2014, so it is the one permitted transfer for the subsequent Usage Year (2014 Usage Year)
7) I now have more than the 490 needed DVC points, and can book the reservation I want in November 2014 when the 7 month reservation window opens. And I used my Worldmark MF basis (approx $1,700) to access the Aulani property.
This is the point where JimF would tell me to step away from the spreadsheet. But, as long as I've been careful with the Usage Years, and making sure they can be banked into 2015, I think I'm good.
I believe this will work, and would appreciate confirmation?
The flaws here, as I see them, are that many DVC owners probably want Maui Ocean Club instead of Worldmark, which is as equally expensive to access as Aulani, and I would be reluctant to use such an enormous quantity of Marriott points. I'm trading longer access to Maui in a B-quality property for shorter access to Aulani, an A-quality property, and trading MOC damages that thesis. Another motivation for me here (besides access to Aulani) is preserving the incredibly valuable Marriott DC points for other usage (most likely rental to cover my MFs).
It appears complicated, but it doesn't feel any more complicated to me than the transactions I've already done -- as long as there is a motivated person on the other end, it's come together nicely.
It's all conjecture obviously at this point -- I won't set foot on Aulani until 2013 (thanks again Steve!) and may not like it -- but I like to think about what is possible to make my best decision.
Please advise on the above and thanks!