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An odd thing about the number of new cases of coronavirus

I would believe what my friends text me, as well, so I am not trying to discredit you. They should email cgoodman@sunsentinel or tweet her at @cindykgoodman with the proof. She is the author of the news article. Journalists should be held accountable for the information that they print.
 
Are they admitting people into the hospitals and ICU that they would have sent home in March? They were sending people home with o2 levels of 85. Now they will admit for two nights for observation with a 92
Perhaps (hope so), but I don't know. But nevertheless, I'm not reading any evidence that hospitalizations in our county are going down, as the other poster was asserting. They are going up.
 
Where are you seeing that hospitalizations for our county are lowest since testing began? According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, hospitalizations have been mostly steady but they are up since June.
View attachment 23737
I was comparing new COVID admissions to new COVID positive cases and rates. UT is also showing total beds which is meaningless re COVID as they need ICU (ventilator) beds and critical care. This is like just showing XXXXXX "new cases" in the news.

Here are the COUNTY graphs showing new positive tests (and %) and COVID hospital admissions. These graphs show that there is little correlation between the now (most likely healthy, asymptomatic) positive cases and hospital admissions:

1595093064256.png


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As I said before, in San Diego County the total positive tests (no not total cases people), is the highest its been since testing began (first week of March), the percentage positive (7%) is as high as its been since testing began. And yet, the COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations are the lowest since testing began. There may be a delay in reporting of admissions, and we'll have to wait and see. But my guess is the most vulnerable and most likely to be hospitalized either already got it, or are doing a good job sheltering in place and protecting themselves.
 
Has anyone seen this article? It just adds to the confusion we all face everyday. I don’t know what is true anymore. Sigh.


I haven't but there are plenty of articles about state problems in testing .... which often leads to conspiracy theories

https://www.thedailybeast.com/texas-erases-covid-cases-and-fans-conspiracy-theory-flames
 
I was comparing new COVID admissions to new COVID positive cases and rates. UT is also showing total beds which is meaningless re COVID as they need ICU (ventilator) beds and critical care. This is like just showing XXXXXX "new cases" in the news.

Here are the COUNTY graphs showing new positive tests (and %) and COVID hospital admissions. These graphs show that there is little correlation between the now (most likely healthy, asymptomatic) positive cases and hospital admissions:

As I said before, in San Diego County the total positive tests (no not total cases people), is the highest its been since testing began (first week of March), the percentage positive (7%) is as high as its been since testing began. And yet, the COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations are the lowest since testing began. There may be a delay in reporting of admissions, and we'll have to wait and see. But my guess is the most vulnerable and most likely to be hospitalized either already got it, or are doing a good job sheltering in place and protecting themselves.
Nevertheless, the UT line graph still shows COVID hospital bed utilization increasing, which is important to know. I do agree, however, that it would be more useful if it would also show ICU bed usage vs. ICU capacity, and I wish it did. BTW, the UT also sources its data from the county. As for the county COVID hospitalization graph, perhaps I'm not interpreting it correctly, but to me it still shows the overall COVID hospitalization trend line up to where the period of uncertainty begins. Percentage comparisons or no, if COVID cases ever fill up hospitals, that's not a good thing. But as you said, let's see what gets reported as of 7/5 forward, since the county says that data is still incomplete.
 
Man who died in motorcycle crash counted as COVID-19 death in Florida: Report


@CPNY
 
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Man who died in motorcycle crash counted as COVID-19 death in Florida: Report


@CPNY


Fox news discovers that it's actually motorcycle crashes that are causing the increase in COVID 19 in Florida, not opening bars and nightclubs





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July 19 2020

fla1.jpg


https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local...ses-90-virus-related-deaths-saturday/2264283/
 
I saw an interview of a Florida ER doc who said this about the numbers...
In Florida, to determine the positivity rate, the state only counts 1-positive per individual, no matter how many times they test positive (fair enuff), but for the denominator, every negative result, even multiple negatives from the same individual is counted. Also, if someone in a hospital is admitted with a diagnosis of COVED and something other than COVID (like pregnancy), the COVID diagnosis is listed as secondary and not counted.

IOW, the truth is out there, but who's to say what it is.
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that seems really complicated formula, and of course the covid cases are counted- did he get his info from a social worker or hospital coder? If not then he probably doesn’t really know HOW they counted. And the covid Diagnosis adds money, and it’s also a JIC the “incidental covid finding” patient goes bad.
They need to start reporting asymptomatic positive cases. Just hearing “positive” cases is a ploy imo. The shut down was to not burden the health system. If as you say hospitalizations are lowest, we were successful in getting ahead of the curve and not overloading the system. No need to be alarmed eh?
I’ve been saying this for awhile- and the contact tracing of the asymptomatic! And the eventual outcome- did any become symtomatic &/or require medical care? But actual data would mean the people could make intelligent decisions based on rationale science instead of controlled by fear. And no I’m not a conspiracy theorist and this virus is real, but I’m tired of the hype and fear by the press who do a really really horrible job of reporting.
They are going up.
Of course they are going up! Hospitals were begging people to stop delaying treatment, to not be AFRAID to seek care etc. the actual percentage of covid patients is still rather low though, when you look at actual numbers. And the hospitals emptied out in April/May to make way for the doomsday scenario of bodies Piled in hallways awaiting treatment. One of our Level 1 trauma hospitals built a whole new Covid wing (finished off a floor in a newer tower) and hasn’t even used it until this week! And why did they FINALLY start using it? It’s easier for the DOCTORS to see the patients. Which actually makes sense, but now you’ve also stretched all other staff out too. 51 bed unit- 19 patients in there, and from recent news- none critical although the space can serve as an ICU. Makes me wonder if they were under pressure to admit some...this is in addition to the 62 ICU beds the hospital already has, and yes- most of the time most of the units are full.
 
An asymptomatic case is still a case. Diagnosis is diagnosis. I don't think going into degree of symptom experience would help anything as far as case count.
 
An asymptomatic case is still a case. Diagnosis is diagnosis. I don't think going into degree of symptom experience would help anything as far as case count.


Also an asymptomatic case can still spread to others that might have severe symptoms. Yes the more you test the more positives you will have. The main thing to look for is the % of positive cases in the total number tested.
 
Also an asymptomatic case can still spread to others that might have severe symptoms. Yes the more you test the more positives you will have. The main thing to look for is the % of positive cases in the total number tested.
why is the % of positive cases in the total number tested important?
 
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