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A Guide to the Tax Changes

With NV being the 2nd largest donor, the statement which several of you made about high state taxes subsidizing the low/no income tax states no longer holds true. It really does not matter whether those taxes come from corporate or individuals as we are talking about state level. As an individual, it certainly is advantageous to live in NV with no state taxes.

As you have also pointed out, many of high income tax states also support a large number of those on "welfare", which offsets a significant amount of taxes collected by Federal as they get returned in the form of Medicaid and other programs.

Yet these states are still net donor states. Is it fair to take away a tax break and make them even larger tax donors? Only 14 states are tax donors and every high tax state is among them. This does not negate the premise especially as it is a fairly low population state dominated by one industry that pays high taxes due to their licensing agreements. Another thing you should take into account is the total dollars. CA and NY donate many more dollars than NV does. NV is a rounding off error for CA.
 
Here I will give you actual data.

That's an excellent post supporting your argument, but I'm willing to bet it's not going to convince very many people on the other side. Everyone is going to come down on the side of their own selfish interests, and regarding what type of state they pay taxes in. Low tax states are going to be happy with the changes, and high taxed states are not.
 
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I appreciate that we can have a civil discussion here about very important issues. Even though I may not agree with everything, it is good to hear different perspectives.
 
That's an excellent post supporting your argument, but I'm willing to bet it's not going to convince very many people on the other side. Everyone is going to come down on the side of their own selfish interests, regarding what type of state they pay taxes in. Low tax states are going to be happy with the changes, and high taxed states are not.


Thank you. I try to be fair, but realize I do have bias'. We would agree on a lot more than we disagree and therefore can have a civil conversation (albeit it is political). My views are actually that the donor states should help the less fortunate states, but it drives me nuts to hear that they are takers. I fear it is more of a political position than an economic one. I have benefited over the years from the vagaries of the tax code, especially the favorable treatment of earnings on capital, however I do realize that the advantages I have had are not exactly 100% fair.
 
Alot of people are getting the extra $1000 bonus from their employers after the tax bill was passed. For the first time in history, we have positive increase in stock indices for each of the 12 months in 2017. The stock market is loving it and we are off to a roaring start in 2018. People's wealth is increasing.
 
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There was no "objective" to this tax bill, as far as I can tell. It really didn't simplify anything and it won't result in huge tax savings for the working class,

I agree, it won't amount to a huge tax savings for the working class, but it will provide an extra $500, $1000, or maybe even more. That can make a difference to a lot of people. The problem isn't taxes for MOST people, it's wages. According to OMB the top 20% now pay 95% of the income taxes. If that is true, most of the tax cut (or, for some, increase) is affecting the "rich", not the working class, because the working class isn't paying very much in taxes.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...es-middle-class-single-digits/article/2638746

Why should someone in a state that it takes 65K to live nicely pay such a lower rate than the family in a high income high cost of living area that may take 150K to have the same lifestyle.

I'm confused by this one. Are you advocating for a flat tax instead of our current progressive tax? Should we raise the rates of the family making $65k, or lower the rates on the family making $150k? Or both?

IMHO this new bill puts a little more money in the working man's pocket. It will put some more money back into most of the upper working class pocket. The guys on the upper end, small businesses, and corporations will do the best because they are paying the most. Hopefully the corporations and small businesses will pay better and hire and that will help eat into the larger deficit brought on by this bill.
 
Hopefully the corporations and small businesses will pay better and hire and that will help eat into the larger deficit brought on by this bill.

Unfortunately, that strategy has already proven to be a failure. You don't stimulate an economy by giving corporations tax breaks and hope they'll employ more people or pay higher wages. You stimulate an economy by putting more money in consumers hands, so that they buy more products and services, and effectively force corporations to hire more people and pay higher wages to keep up with increased demand.
Anyone that still believes in trickle down economics is, quite frankly, a fool. There's GDP growth data out there that proves that it doesn't work, and I've studied it fairly extensively. Recall that almost immediately after 8 years of trickle down policy from 1980-1988, we were in a recession by mid-1990. If trickle down truly spurred massive economic growth, that would never happen. Trickle down theory only applies if the taxing entity is on the wrong side of the Laffer Curve, meaning that the tax rate is so excessive that they're limiting tax revenue by oppressing growth. We're far from that point. Trickle down is truly "voodoo economics".

ETA: As a related aside, the national debt quadrupled in the 1980-1988 time frame.
 
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making the corporate tax rate (and discounted rates for repatriating offshore cash) competitive than the rest of the global economy will most certainly result in some amazing benefits.

basically if you are for the tax cuts...you can argue positives all day long.

if you are against the tax cuts...you can argue the negatives all day long.


just like any other major piece of legislation (or any political stance for that matter)
 
Elan,

I won't respond in totality, because that would quickly lead us down the rabbit hole of being political. Just a short rejoinder, national debt did explode. Congress spending, controlled by one party in both branches, went crazy during that time. A deal for tax decrease for spending increase was done. It's been 35 years. The original theory was never totally done. I'm sure that many people, more expert in it than I am, could argue both your side and the other side of that coin.
 
I agree, it won't amount to a huge tax savings for the working class, but it will provide an extra $500, $1000, or maybe even more. That can make a difference to a lot of people. The problem isn't taxes for MOST people, it's wages. According to OMB the top 20% now pay 95% of the income taxes. If that is true, most of the tax cut (or, for some, increase) is affecting the "rich", not the working class, because the working class isn't paying very much in taxes.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...es-middle-class-single-digits/article/2638746



I'm confused by this one. Are you advocating for a flat tax instead of our current progressive tax? Should we raise the rates of the family making $65k, or lower the rates on the family making $150k? Or both?

IMHO this new bill puts a little more money in the working man's pocket. It will put some more money back into most of the upper working class pocket. The guys on the upper end, small businesses, and corporations will do the best because they are paying the most. Hopefully the corporations and small businesses will pay better and hire and that will help eat into the larger deficit brought on by this bill.

The only thing I was saying is that there are inequalities in the tax system and that the deductions for salt was helping reduce that inequality. High tax states are donor states that send more to DC than they get back. The maximum deduction now in the tax plan exasperates that redistribution. I actually have no problem with limiting the deduction but we need to realize that we are redistributing their money. My fear is that the few people being hurt by this tax cut were selected for political reasons. The bottom line is we have used the tax system for social engineering since it's inception. Shocking these systems may have some very bad unintended consequences and my faith that our leaders will be able to adjust on the fly is low. I hope this wasn't too rambling.
 
making the corporate tax rate (and discounted rates for repatriating offshore cash) competitive than the rest of the global economy will most certainly result in some amazing benefits.

basically if you are for the tax cuts...you can argue positives all day long.

if you are against the tax cuts...you can argue the negatives all day long.


just like any other major piece of legislation (or any political stance for that matter)

Here is a peer reviewed paper on tax rates.

https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/deliver...4025064031116017084079116085075029074&EXT=pdf


Here is the conclusion.

We believe that this study indicates that U.S.-based multinationals
do not face a tax-induced competitive disadvantage in competing
against EU-based multinationals. Even though the U.S. statutory rate
is ten percentage points higher than the average corporate statutory
rate in the European Union, the effective U.S. corporate tax rate is
the same or lower than the effective EU corporate tax rate for the
largest U.S. and EU multinationals.
Presumably, the reason for this result is that while the EU countries
have a lower statutory rate, their tax base is larger because it has
fewer exceptions. In fact, a comparison of the controlled foreign corp-
poration (CFC) rules of the United States (subpart F) and the major
EU jurisdictions (the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and France)
indicates that the EU CFC rules tend to be tougher than subpart F
because (1) they take into account the ETR in the source country in
deciding whether to tax income from a CFC,
43
and (2) they take into
account whether the CFC has a real presence in the source country.
44
Under the EU rules, for example, a bank earning interest income in a
tax haven is likely to be subject to current tax because the ETR in the
haven is low, and the bank does not have a real presence in the ha-
ven.
45
Under subpart F the income will likely qualify for the active
financing exception.
46
In addition, the European Union does not have
anything like the U.S. rules that enable U.S. multinationals to shift
profits from high-tax to low-tax CFCs without incurring a U.S. tax cost
(check-the-box and § 954(c)(6)).
47
This conclusion suggests that the United States can in fact reduce its
corporate tax rate to the EU average in a revenue neutral fashion
without affecting the competitiveness of U.S.-based multinationals,
since such a move would simply result in a tax regime that is more
similar to that faced by EU companies. Specifically, as many observ-
ers have recommended, it should be possible to abolish deferral alto-
gether if the U.S. rate were reduced sufficiently. Such a move would
have tremendous simplification potential since it would be possible to
get rid of both subpart F and outbound transfer pricing enforcement,
and it would eliminate the “lock out” problem as well (since repatria-
tions would not be taxed). Alternatively, it should be possible to
amend subpart F to take the source country rate into account, so that
an effective source rate that is below 90% of the U.S. statutory rate
would result in a subpart F inclusion, while reducing the U.S. statutory
rate. Such a move, while not as radically simplifying as abolishing
deferral, will significantly reduce the pressure on outbound transfer
pricing while not resulting in a competitive disadvantage to U.S.-based
multinationals or inducing more profit shifting from the United States
to low-taxed offshore locations, like the current rules do.


Me again

Our marginal rates are high , but our effective rates are right in line. This allows some companies to be screwed if they have to pay the higher rate and some companies to get away like bandits. Wouldn't it have been nice if they brought down the top rate and got rid of loop holes to make this revenue neutral.......like they promised.
 
Elan,

I won't respond in totality, because that would quickly lead us down the rabbit hole of being political. Just a short rejoinder, national debt did explode. Congress spending, controlled by one party in both branches, went crazy during that time. A deal for tax decrease for spending increase was done. It's been 35 years. The original theory was never totally done. I'm sure that many people, more expert in it than I am, could argue both your side and the other side of that coin.
Yeah, I recall that era -- unfettered military spending ($650 toilet seats, anyone?) coupled with tax cuts. Pure genius.

Deficit talk aside, my point is that there's historical data from an era of reduced rates (80-88) along with data from an era with increased rates (92-2000). Everyone can assimilate it on their own, but the gist is that there's no great increase in GDP growth associated with lower tax rates. That's enough to convince me, coupled with a follow-on recession by mid 1990, that trickle down economics doesn't work. I'd encourage everyone to go look at the data themselves. For me personally, I don't like the idea of taking a $1.5 trillion risk on something that didn't work the last time.

Sent from my Moto G (5S) Plus using Tapatalk
 
Here is a peer reviewed paper on tax rates.



Here is the conclusion.

Presumably, the reason for this result is that while the EU countries
have a lower statutory rate, their tax base is larger because it has
fewer exceptions. In fact, a comparison of the controlled foreign corp-
poration (CFC) rules of the United States (subpart F) and the major
EU jurisdictions (the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and France)
indicates that the EU CFC rules tend to be tougher than subpart F
because (1) they take into account the ETR in the source country in
deciding whether to tax income from a CFC,
43
and (2) they take into
account whether the CFC has a real presence in the source country.
44
Under the EU rules, for example, a bank earning interest income in a
tax haven is likely to be subject to current tax because the ETR in the
haven is low, and the bank does not have a real presence in the ha-
ven.
45
Under subpart F the income will likely qualify for the active
financing exception.
46
In addition, the European Union does not have
anything like the U.S. rules that enable U.S. multinationals to shift
profits from high-tax to low-tax CFCs without incurring a U.S. tax cost
(check-the-box and § 954(c)(6)).
47
This conclusion suggests that the United States can in fact reduce its
corporate tax rate to the EU average in a revenue neutral fashion
without affecting the competitiveness of U.S.-based multinationals,
since such a move would simply result in a tax regime that is more
similar to that faced by EU companies. Specifically, as many observ-
ers have recommended, it should be possible to abolish deferral alto-
gether if the U.S. rate were reduced sufficiently. Such a move would
have tremendous simplification potential since it would be possible to
get rid of both subpart F and outbound transfer pricing enforcement,
and it would eliminate the “lock out” problem as well (since repatria-
tions would not be taxed). Alternatively, it should be possible to
amend subpart F to take the source country rate into account, so that
an effective source rate that is below 90% of the U.S. statutory rate
would result in a subpart F inclusion, while reducing the U.S. statutory
rate. Such a move, while not as radically simplifying as abolishing
deferral, will significantly reduce the pressure on outbound transfer
pricing while not resulting in a competitive disadvantage to U.S.-based
multinationals or inducing more profit shifting from the United States
to low-taxed offshore locations, like the current rules do.
me again
Our marginal rates are high , but our effective rates are right in line. This allows some companies to be screwed if they have to pay the higher rate and some companies to get away like bandits. Wouldn't it have been nice if they brought down the top rate and got rid of loop holes to make this revenue neutral.......like they promised.

yes, it's true starting in 2018 the US corporate tax rate will be lower than the average European company rate - - but not as low as some businesses in China and other countries. And it's also true that US based companies will not have to pay the dreaded "VAT" business tax at 17% - 25%. And they will not have to pay the extra "public health care" taxes that European companies and individuals pay through payroll taxes.

yep, some amazing benefits for US corporate shareholders
(but that bill may ultimately comes due ...
 
You said it yourself 1 in 3 itemize. I only used LI for an example. I feel this tax law unfairly singles out a few states to increase their taxes or at the least minimize their cut. The high tax states for years have paid more to the federal government than they get back. Low tax states get back more. The high tax states are also the high income states. Why should someone in a state that it takes 65K to live nicely pay such a lower rate than the family in a high income high cost of living area that may take 150K to have the same lifestyle. They pay a much larger share of their income in taxes. Should there be a cost of living factor in taxes. There are many ways to look at taxation. None of them are fair in every ones eyes. In case you think I am talking my own book I do not live in a high tax state.
(A) Strike the word "unfairly" in your lead-in, and it would be factual.
(B) Have you considered that giving tax subsidies to citizens in high-tax/high-spending states that are not available to citizens in more effectively managed states is counter-intuitive? (Consider the incentives here.)
 
(A) Strike the word "unfairly" in your lead-in, and it would be factual.
(B) Have you considered that giving tax subsidies to citizens in high-tax/high-spending states that are not available to citizens in more effectively managed states is counter-intuitive? (Consider the incentives here.)

If you do not like subsidizing, then each state should get back the same ratio of their taxes to use as they wish. So in order not to subsidize the taker states we need to reduce the federal tax bill for high tax states by up to 35% or send them 50% more money. That would eliminate the actual subsidizing going on here. That is why I use the unfair word. If a state is paying more than their fair share of taxes then adding to that tax bill is unfair. And those tax breaks are available to everyone, why should a high tax state not use a break because your state does not want to? Do you have any evidence that lower tax states manage their finances any better? It would be nice if NYC government offices could move to Alabama to save money on real estate and wages, but that is not very practical. The better correlation seems to be in vibrant economies. Look at the GDP per capita and you will find the high tax states at the top and the low tax states at the bottom. Have you considered that high tax states provide more services and some that low tax states use grants from the federal government to provide.

I could make your same argument on any tax break. Why should I subsidize families with kids. I will answer. Because it is the right thing to do.
 
If you do not like subsidizing, then each state should get back the same ratio of their taxes to use as they wish. So in order not to subsidize the taker states we need to reduce the federal tax bill for high tax states by up to 35% or send them 50% more money. That would eliminate the actual subsidizing going on here. That is why I use the unfair word. If a state is paying more than their fair share of taxes then adding to that tax bill is unfair. And those tax breaks are available to everyone, why should a high tax state not use a break because your state does not want to? Do you have any evidence that lower tax states manage their finances any better? It would be nice if NYC government offices could move to Alabama to save money on real estate and wages, but that is not very practical. The better correlation seems to be in vibrant economies. Look at the GDP per capita and you will find the high tax states at the top and the low tax states at the bottom. Have you considered that high tax states provide more services and some that low tax states use grants from the federal government to provide.

I could make your same argument on any tax break. Why should I subsidize families with kids. I will answer. Because it is the right thing to do.

any amount on the federal tax form 1040 Schedule A - be it state income taxes, real estate taxes or "charitable contributions" etc are all 'tax' breaks
Tom Cruise contributes millions to his religion - Scientology and gets a tax break
that's a tax break 'subsidy' -- it gets subtracted from the potential total tax collected
 
I might pay more and am willing to if it ultimately helps most others. My poorer friends were getting poorer and using public assistance that costs us all money. My richer friends were getting richer and people like me in the middle are struggling to not fall into the poorer side.

Time will tell the effects of this tax bill. All I know is something had to change.
 
Here's an excerpt and tax bill calculator from the NY times:

Over all, about three-quarters of Americans would get a tax cut in 2018 under the version of the tax bill that was recently released by a joint House-Senate conference committee. But as the accompanying chart shows, there’s a lot of variation, even for families that look similar on paper. How families earn their money, whether they make large charitable contributions and other factors can affect how they would fare under the bill.

These results may look more generous than what you might have seen in other calculators. That’s because the final plan is indeed more generous to individuals in 2018 than previous House and Senate plans.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/17/upshot/tax-calculator.html
 
My only problem with it is that it was not made permanent for individuals. I don't know what the intermediate to long-term impact will be, but I am fairly certain interest rates are headed up-way up. And when that happens, we will be in a recessionary environment, and stocks will fall (usually prior to the start). And the budget deficit will grow. And taxes will probably go back up (or they will not be made permanent for individuals).
 
Both parties agree that the gap between the rich and poor has been widening. Here is single example of the effects of the tax cut.

My wife and I are not one percenters but much better off than we ever imagined. The Times chart indicates we will get about a $950tax cut ( disappearing by 2025). Friends, both working one independently, said they were looking at something like a $5000 to $10,000 tax cut ( maybe more if he can declare himself a pass through entity.

This is a single case, but in line with what I have read about the cut. Hmmmm...
 
The Times chart indicates we will get about a $950tax cut ( disappearing by 2025). Friends, both working one independently, said they were looking at something like a $5000 to $10,000 tax cut ( maybe more if he can declare himself a pass through entity.

This is a single case, but in line with what I have read about the cut. Hmmmm...
Or more. In my example below the savings for an entry-level top 1%'er is about 5% or $38,000.
Even if you're a married couple in the lower end of the 1% living in a no-tax state with say $400,000 of interest income and $400,000 of capital gains/qualified dividends, here's what the new law does for you (in addition to probably sparing you any estate tax exposure).

2017
Adjusted gross income: $800,000
Deductions: $50,000 comprised of $20,000 real estate tax plus $30,000 charity
Deductions you're allowed: 35,414 because in your bracket some are phased out
Personal exemptions 0 (your income is too high so yours are phased out, which maybe explains why starting in 2018 everybody else in the US is losing theirs too)
Taxable income 764,586
Regular tax including cap gains/qualified dividends at favored rate 170,224
Alternative minimum tax 4,314
Net investment income tax 20,900
Total tax 195,438 (24.4% of 800,000)

2018
Adjusted gross income: $800,000
Deductions: $50,000 comprised of $20,000 real estate tax plus $30,000 charity
Deductions you're allowed: 40,000 because of the 10,000 cap on local tax (the phase out is repealed)
Personal exemptions 0 (repealed)
Taxable income 760,000
Regular tax including cap gains/qualified dividends at favored rate 136,000
(thanks to new lower brackets for ordinary income)
Alternative minimum tax 0
Net investment income tax 20,900
Total tax 157,000 (19.6% of 800,000)

Hey, you just got $38,000 richer!!
 
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If rates are lowered 2% for each tax bracket, then the more money that someone makes, the higher the tax cut.

The cumulative effect of all those cuts will be a stimulative to the economy, more economic growth which will produce more revenue for the government.
 
If rates are lowered 2% for each tax bracket, then the more money that someone makes, the higher the tax cut.

The cumulative effect of all those cuts will be a stimulative to the economy, more economic growth which will produce more revenue for the government.

If you mean to be describing the new tax law, 2% for each tax bracket is not a fair summary. For example it's 20% if you happen to own hotels and apartment buildings.

As to the talking point that tax cuts = economic stimulus = economic growth = more revenue for the government, let's wait and see.
 
I came across info yesterday that stated interest from a home equity line/loan will no longer be deductible unless the funds were used to acquire or improve your residence.

With mortgage rates still low, wonder if there will be a spike in refinancing to move home equity debt over to a mortgage.
 
If rates are lowered 2% for each tax bracket, then the more money that someone makes, the higher the tax cut.

The cumulative effect of all those cuts will be a stimulative to the economy, more economic growth which will produce more revenue for the government.

Except that many upper income people are not going to spend the money. We will receive a substantial tax cut, but will not spend it; it will go in savings.
 
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