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[2014] What's the next stock market bubble?

Ralph Sir Edward said:
occurred in the 1920's with automobiles and radios, it occurred in the 1960's with electronic companies, and in occurred in the 1990's with the internet companies.
Click to expand...
ah, what the heck:
There was a man from Old Lyme,
Who went back in time on a dime.
He asked the wrong question,
Thus learned the wrong lesson,
Returned with ideas below prime.
 
Ralph Sir Edward said:
All those tools did not stop the NASDAQ from dropping 78% from the March 2001 high.
Click to expand...

It really didn't help the retirement investor much in 2008 and probably won't help much regarding the ride it out groups next time either.

Bill
 
easyrider said:
The reasons I'm doubting a bust are there are mechanisms in place to monitor the situations, a plunge protection team and the Fed's ability to indirectly influence the markets with liquidity and interest rates. The biggest factor might be having a business person running America like a business instead of a charity, imo.

Bill
Click to expand...


LOL
so you believe the increase in stock prices for the past 15 years is due to a "business" person .... bankruptcies !

..
---- wrong bust or 'correction' but probably part of the GREAT plan ;)

gold____.jpg









.
 
Brett said:
so you believe the increase in stock prices for the past 15 years is due to a "business" person
Click to expand...

That isn't what I said at all. Not even close. :cool:

Bill
 
Brett said:
I don't know. If the stock market bull "bubble" lasts for 20 years is it still a bubble?
Click to expand...

Maybe, right now anyway, it's a bull bubble market. Can a bubble last 20 years and still be considered a bubble ? I think that actually happened to Japan.

Bill
 
anybody know when GLD announces earnings this quarter? Asking for a friend. My friend was buying GLD every day on margin. My firend bought GLD all the way up to $403, ON MARGIN, My friend worries that all the others who did that will sell their GLD if GLD doesn't announce better earnings than the Mag7 and AI stocks announce. TIA
 
I checked both Factset and Earnings Whispers for the expected Earnings announcement date for GLD
Bad news, the ETF has delayed reporting earnings for an indeterminate time
The dividend information is also very limited
Hope this answers your question
As an aside
Buy when crying
Sell when yelling
 
emeryjre said:
I checked both Factset and Earnings Whispers for the expected Earnings announcement date for GLD
Bad news, the ETF has delayed reporting earnings for an indeterminate time
The dividend information is also very limited
Hope this answers your question
As an aside
Buy when crying
Sell when yelling
Click to expand...


I'm crying for not putting more into foreign


.

world.jpg

world1.jpg


https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/...s-doing-better-8e1005be?mod=finance_lead_pos5

"The MSCI All Country World ex USA Index, which tracks developed and emerging-market stocks, is up around 26% in 2025 on a U.S.-dollar basis.
That bests the S&P 500, which is up 15% and heading toward its weakest annual performance since 2022. In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi is up 64%, Germany’s DAX has increased 22%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 has climbed 24% and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 has risen 18%.
The performances mark a sharp reversal from the past decade, when strong returns from U.S. stocks gave rise to a new investment thesis: “American exceptionalism”
 
Ralph Sir Edward said:
All those tools did not stop the NASDAQ from dropping 78% from the March 2001 high.
Click to expand...
Do not forget the 1987 portfolio insurance that was supposed to protect against a crash which did not only not work but some thinks it helped make the 87 crash even worse. One reason I never let my profits grow. 10% and then I trim back to my baseline. Except this market is so fast, the profits may be over 20% before I can get to it,
 
RENTER said:
Do not forget the 1987 portfolio insurance that was supposed to protect against a crash which did not only not work but some thinks it helped make the 87 crash even worse. One reason I never let my profits grow. 10% and then I trim back to my baseline. Except this market is so fast, the profits may be over 20% before I can get to it,
Click to expand...



.
And let us not forget that 1999 NASDAQ is not the same as 2025 NASDAQ


nasdaq.jpg


nasdaq2.jpg


.


But of course Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft, etc. could collapse in the "bubble"
 
Ride the bubble with stop losses until it pops. Unfortunately, this can't be done with mutual funds.

Bill
 
Everyone who owns SP500 must be damn glad you own a ton of AI-related stuff, because today almost nothing else is up and yesterday was almost the same.
Today, gold up, drugs flat, energy up. Nothing else up really. Tonight, someone should get a link to what % of the SP500's YTD gain is due to AI.

oh, and Nuclear is up. I have orders in to sell my 2 nuclear stocks a few % higher, where I have sold them over & over already. Sell High. Buy Low.
Nuclear. Reminds me when jp came here and said the crypto speculators are all in AI stocks now. LMAO. Uh no. "AI" = the mainstream. The speculators have 4 or 5 smaller places to throw money around.
 
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Ralph Sir Edward said:
What does weighting have to do with percent return? That's comparing apple and feldspar
Click to expand...
He mostly has no idea what the things he links to even mean.
That is step 1 in his having no idea whether they contain any useful info or are just a bunch of blather, a potpourri of pablum.
 
a 60/40 portfolio is suitable for investors who don't understand stocks, or understand bonds. It is another one of those "simple-math-things" developed by mathematicians who fit my initial description. (I say this having studied finance at MIT, where they push that *bleep* hard, and having been perfectly happy to regurgitate it on tests.)
 
The "new" energy sector has certainly benefitted from the AI Data Center build out frenzy

Oklo Inc (OKLO) has benefitted from the ether breathers who are betting big on small nuclear reactors

"Should I stay or should I go" keeps playing in my head
 
emeryjre said:
The "new" energy sector has certainly benefitted from the AI Data Center build out frenzy
Click to expand...
BINGO! I recently looked at sector returns, I think it was 5 yrs. It blew me away that "Energy" was one of the best. I din't bother to dig deeper. It must be "AI stocks" like CEG, etc. It can't be O&G of any kind. :shrug:
 
emeryjre said:
Oklo Inc (OKLO) has benefitted from the ether breathers who are betting big on small nuclear reactors
Click to expand...
Hey, Trump signed his first Make Nuclear Great Again thing in May, right? I bought a few of those a few days later. Simple: you know know KNOW there will be news announcement after news announcement about the Fed Govt helping out nuclear in the good ol USofA. The people who try to do a 30 yr DCF for any of those are just bat-bleep missing the point. Looking at the BofA analyst who downgraded them all due to some 30-yr-DCF type thing, just before another news announcement came out & they skyrocketed again.
Buy Low. Sell High. (and if it goes mucho higher than where you sold, don't worry, be happy)
Buy Low. Sell High. (and if it goes mucho higher than where you sold, don't worry, be happy)
Buy Low. Sell High. (and if it goes mucho higher than where you sold, don't worry, be happy)
Buy Low. Sell High. (and if it goes mucho higher than where you sold, don't worry, be happy)

Somebody should write an article entitled "I Did a 30 Yr DCF on "I Don't Know Bleep""
 
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The power needs of the new data centers have "energized" the group

I have been a big supporter of nuclear for years

Their time has arrived
 
emeryjre said:
The power needs of the new data centers have "energized" the group. I have been a big supporter of nuclear for years
Click to expand...
Meanwhile, in Germany, the Greens & their party have killed a few sectos of the economy by killing nuclear and driving up the cost of electricity & energy overall.
Pop quiz: is Germany's real GDP higher now than it was 6 yrs ago?
And in Japan, they committed seppuku for, for, for, well, just because. I know a bunch of Japanese, well-placed in industry. None of them have ever been able to explain it, but they all just sort of accepted it because "Fukushima" and "no nuclear makes the old people in Tokyo feel safer". In Japan, the "Greens" don't really even have any power. It was just "because".
 
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