[2014] Most plausible explanation of mystery of Malasyian Flight 370

[SMHarman]

Yep. If it was put down on a runway it has to be long enough for takeoff, in good enough condition to handle a landing and takeoff of a commercial widebody jet, and provide a suitable place to conceal the plane from aerial surveillance. I don't think the fuel needs to be onsite; it could refueled over time.

The abandoned runway in an uninhabited island doesn't work for me. If it were parked it has to be somewhere on the mainland. And if there were a mainland site that meets those criteria, how do you fly the plane there without having people see you getting it there?

The more I think about it, the more implausible the "stolen" aircraft theory seems to be. Or if it was stolen, perhaps it was taken by underwear gnomes.

Those are the sort of runways you arrive at with enough fuel for the return leg as Jet-A is way pricier there than at your main hub airport.

Even say American Airlines flying MIA > NAS > MIA will fuel that plane in MIA for the round trip and maybe top off in NAS if necessary. The fuel coming by pipeline into MIA is way cheaper and way easier to get there.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Those are the sort of runways you arrive at with enough fuel for the return leg as Jet-A is way pricier there than at your main hub airport.

Even say American Airlines flying MIA > NAS > MIA will fuel that plane in MIA for the round trip and maybe top off in NAS if necessary. The fuel coming by pipeline into MIA is way cheaper and way easier to get there.

OK - so it would need to be in a location where they can get Jet-A to the plane for refueling. I still think it doesn't have to be a pipeline, but it does have to be a location where they can score a truckload of Jet-A regularly to be able to get the plane refueled. And that certainly eliminates all of the remote, uninhabited islands, since nobody's barging Jet-A to those locales.

So if someone intended to fly the plane again, the place the plane was flown to needs to be a civilized locale.


******

Thinking about the plane wreckage possibly being found in the south Indian Ocean west of Australia ....

I started wondering if this might be the work of a suicidal psychopath. Not enough for this person to just fly the plane into the ocean, taking out everyone else at the same time. No, maybe this person derived pleasure from flying a plane full of terrorized people for hours, psychologically feasting on their misery for as long as possible, until the plane runs out of fuel.

 

[DeniseM]

I started wondering if this might be the work of a suicidal psychopath. Not enough for this person to just fly the plane into the ocean, taking out everyone else at the same time. No, maybe this person derived pleasure from flying a plane full of terrorized people for hours, psychologically feasting on their misery for as long as possible, until the plane runs out of fuel.

What about the co-pilot - did he kill him? The co-pilot was about to be married to a young attractive female pilot - hard to believe he wanted to die...

 

[Passepartout]

No one has verified that the surface blip seen by satellite 2 days ago is part of the 777. But assuming it is, I like some variation of the Payne Stewart scenario. A decompression in the wee hours of the morning that takes out anyone in a position to take command. The plane flies along with a load of incapacitated people on a predetermined flight path, until fuel is exhausted. Splash.

Why it was on the flight path it was on is the mystery that may never be known. The cockpit voice recorder overwrites all but the last 2 hours (which may be silent), and if it were simply on autopilot, there wouldn't be much of interest on the data recorder.

 

[Beefnot]

Given that I used to watch "Air Emergency" a lot, I can buy that perhaps the plane experienced some sort of monumental malfunction. What if it simultaneously lost communication and pressurization (and perhaps there was also even a fire), and the autopilot just when bazonkers. In the dark. That would be pure horror. And eventual certain death.

Of course that probably runs counter to some of the reported facts, one of which was supposedly the course being manually changed 12 minutes before the co-pilot signed off. I have a question about that by the way, how do they know that this manual manipulation happened and precisely when? And if they know that, then didn't they know that at the time this manual manipulation had occurred? Wouldn't that have triggered some sort of alarm then, prompting air traffic control to ask "what the hell are you doing up there?".

 

[Clemson Fan]

Of course that probably runs counter to some of the reported facts, one of which was supposedly the course being manually changed 12 minutes before the co-pilot signed off. I have a question about that by the way, how do they know that this manual manipulation happened and precisely when? And if they know that, then didn't they know that at the time this manual manipulation had occurred? Wouldn't that have triggered some sort of alarm then, prompting air traffic control to ask "what the hell are you doing up there?".

They don't know. That reporting was pure speculative crapola like 95% of the "reporting" has been. I read in later reports on CNN that the westward turn may have been programmed as much as 12 minutes before they signed off or it may have been programmed after they signed off and after the transponder went silent. They don't really know!

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Of course that probably runs counter to some of the reported facts, one of which was supposedly the course being manually changed 12 minutes before the co-pilot signed off. I have a question about that by the way, how do they know that this manual manipulation happened and precisely when? And if they know that, then didn't they know that at the time this manual manipulation had occurred? Wouldn't that have triggered some sort of alarm then, prompting air traffic control to ask "what the hell are you doing up there?".

They know that the plane was being navigated because they have radar tracking as it flew westwards towards the Indian Ocean. And because the course the plane was following was not a straight line but went between established navigation waypoints, either the place was being actively flown by a pilot along that course, or the autopilot had those waypoints programmed into it. Not to mention the changes in elevation.

As to ATC, the plane diverted after it left Malaysian ATC and before it checked in with Vietnamese ATC. IOW, the plane appears to have been commandeered at precisely where there was no ATC contact with the plane. That, of course, suggests that whoever took over the plane was in the cockpit at that time. No one in the passenger cabin would know when that handoff was occurring so they could choose that moment to make their move.

*******

If it does turn out that the plane went down west of Australia, then it starts to appear that someone inside the cockpit commandeered the plane as it left Malaysian airspace, struck a course toward the Indian Ocean, possibly also doing low-altitude flying to minimize the chances of being detected by primary radar. Then upon reaching the ocean once again, returned to cruising altitude and turned southward, continuing on that course until the plane ran out of fuel.

If that is an accurate statement of events, then what is the most reasonable explanation to match those observations?

 

[Beefnot]

If that is an accurate statement of events, then what is the most reasonable explanation to match those observations?

How about:
(1) Monumental malfunction, including autopilot going bazonkers, coincidentally after signoff

(2) Suicide mission conspiracy between pilot and co-pilot.

(3) Remote control fully takeover of the aircraft. Ooh, now that's a doozy.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

(2) Suicide mission conspiracy between pilot and co-pilot.

Why both of them? Seems to me that one of them could easily take out the other.

Or flight attendant is in on a conspiracy with one other person (who is a trained pilot). Arranges for the pilot to open the cockpit (e.,g, to serve food or a beverage) and cohort rushes the cockpit while the door is open.

 

[easyrider]

Israel thinks flight 370 was stolen and that Iran is likely involved.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-el-al-expert-iran-likely-involved-in-mh-370/

Iran does have the technology and experience to spoof drones. They did manage to spoof and land one of our drones in 2011. This same gps hack could be used to spoof radar. This was brought up last year in regards to aircraft security.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygre...e-to-hackers-spoofing-planes-out-of-thin-air/

“Anyone can technically transmit these messages,” says Andrei Costin, a Ph.D. candidate at the French security institute Eurecom who plans to give a talk called “Ghosts In The Air (Traffic)” at Black Hat. “It’s practically possible for a medium-technical savvy person to mount an attack and impersonate a plane that’s not there.”

It could also have been a testing of a device called a non nuclear e bomb. If something like this was used then all electrical devices would have stopped working causing the airplane to drop like a rock. The debrie field could be very small in type of crash as there isn't an explosion. The black boxes would be non operational.
Here is how to make your own mini e pulse generator.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miF014yRJhs

Bill

 

[tompalm]

How about:
(1) Monumental malfunction, including autopilot going bazonkers, coincidentally after signoff

(2) Suicide mission conspiracy between pilot and co-pilot.

(3) Remote control fully takeover of the aircraft. Ooh, now that's a doozy.

I think you are watching to much stupid TV. This is what I believe that was stated above:

Israel thinks flight 370 was stolen and that Iran is likely involved.

Maybe I watched too much 24 when it was on TV.

 

[tompalm]

Given that I used to watch "Air Emergency" a lot, I can buy that perhaps the plane experienced some sort of monumental malfunction. What if it simultaneously lost communication and pressurization (and perhaps there was also even a fire), and the autopilot just when bazonkers. .

I have never seen that show, but I think they must make stuff up or use the dumbest pilots in the world. Any of the things mentioned above would not be a big deal. Airline pilots are trained for all those things. Autopilots going off and trimming out of control is something that pilots get in the simulator all the time. All you have to do is hit the disconnect and fly manually. Every year pilots get an emergency descent because of a rapid depressurization in the sim. If anything happened that caused them to lose control, they would be in the ocean right where it happened and not still flying hours later.

 

[Beefnot]

I have never seen that show, but I think they must make stuff up or use the dumbest pilots in the world. Any of the things mentioned above would not be a big deal. Airline pilots are trained for all those things. Autopilots going off and trimming out of control is something that pilots get in the simulator all the time. All you have to do is hit the disconnect and fly manually. Every year pilots get an emergency descent because of a rapid depressurization in the sim. If anything happened that caused them to lose control, they would be in the ocean right where it happened and not still flying hours later.

Air Emergency was a docuseries about true, actual air disasters and near-disasters with commercial airliners over the last 30-40 years or so. Was very, very fascinating. Dumb things done by pilots (like letting a boy in the captains chair partially unattended) and all manners of horrifying mechanical failures, among other things. Try to find episodes on Netflix or something and you will discover that crazy stuff can happen that not even skilled pilots can handle sometimes.

 

[Clemson Fan]

Israel thinks flight 370 was stolen and that Iran is likely involved.

NO, Isaac Yeffet thinks flight 370 was stolen by Iran! That's what one Israeli thinks, NOT what Israel thinks!

That's like saying the United States thinks TWA 800 was shot down by a wayward Navy missile because that's what Pierre Salinger thought.

Geez!

 

[Chrispee]

Any of the things mentioned above would not be a big deal. Airline pilots are trained for all those things.

Fire or smoke in the cabin would most certainly be a big deal to any commercial pilot. A serious fire/smoke event could cripple an airliner in short order, and it can be extremely difficult to identify the source of the problem.

Having said that, it's hard to imagine the sequence of manoeuvres of the aircraft being consistent with fire/smoke.

I've been quietly following this thread, it's been an interesting read and there are lots of thought provoking ideas being put forth. I'll add mine:

I believe that the most plausible reason for everything that transpired is hypoxia. I'm not sure if the hypoxia was a result of a hijacking gone bad (bullet, window seal broken etc), pilot suicide, or if it was just a depressurization problem that was not dealt with effectively by the pilots. Hypoxia could account for the strange decisions made by the pilots, and would be consistent with the plane flying on until all fuel was expended.

Only my theory to add to the mix, but I have enjoyed reading everybody else's ideas on the subject.

 

[Clemson Fan]

Nothing in the story that you didn't already read upthread. Who needs the BBC when you've TUGgers are at hand???

An MH370 theory that was simple, compelling and wrong

Even though Goodfellow's theory has some holes in it and I have no doubt is not 100% correct, I gotta give the guy credit for coming up with the first plausible explanation that I heard as to why this plane seemingly flew on for 7 hours in silence. That's the one thing that always perplexed me from the beginning. Why would a hijacker, suicidal pilot or terrorist fly the plane in complete silence for 7 hours? It appears that the plane continued flying on either that northerly or southerly arc for 7 hours. It does appear that the people who are privy to much more information then we are really focusing in on that southerly route to the remote Southern Indian Ocean as being the most likely route.

So, when he came out with his distress theory and that everybody was probably dead on the plane and the plane just stabilized itself like they're built to do and then just flew in whichever direction it was last pointed in until it ran out of fuel and dropped from the sky ala Payne Stewart, it just really made sense to me. Frankly, it still does! Does his theory have whatever probably caused the distress completely wrong, almost certainly yes. However, the part of his theory that everybody was dead as to why it flew south for 7 hours into the Indian Ocean I think is right on. What caused the distress on the plane leading to everybody's death? Who knows?

The plane stealing to use as a WMD theories I just don't buy at all. The logistics something like that would take not only to pull off the theft, but to keep it hidden over a several week to month timeframe I just think make that theory highly highly improbable. That would take a fairly sized number of people involved in the conspiracy and the more people you have involved, the more likely it is to be uncovered.

 

[ace2000]

Even though Goodfellow's theory has some holes in it and I have no doubt is not 100% correct, I gotta give the guy credit for coming up with the first plausible explanation that I heard as to why this plane seemingly flew on for 7 hours in silence. That's the one thing that always perplexed me from the beginning. Why would a hijacker, suicidal pilot or terrorist fly the plane in complete silence for 7 hours?

I'd be curious to know where you think the "holes" are. On your question about why a suicidal pilot would fly the plane in complete silence for 7 hours - my theory goes back to post #4. He killed everyone to make a public political statement - he was a follower of the man who was jailed the very same day he flew the plane. He even was in attendance at the man's trial the day he flew the plane. It was also reported that his wife and kids moved out of their home that same day.

So, what are the odds of those incidents being a factor? I'd say the odds are much greater than the chance of an fire onboard the plane with no radio contact about the fire. An accidental cockpit fire on board a commercial airliner is extremely unlikely. I believe I heard somewhere that has never happened before.

 

[Beefnot]

The plane stealing to use as a WMD theories I just don't buy at all. The logistics something like that would take not only to pull off the theft, but to keep it hidden over a several week to month timeframe I just think make that theory highly highly improbable. That would take a fairly sized number of people involved in the conspiracy and the more people you have involved, the more likely it is to be uncovered.

Remember 9/11?

I'd be curious to know where you think the "holes" are. On your question about why a suicidal pilot would fly the plane in complete silence for 7 hours - my theory goes back to post #4. He killed everyone to make a public political statement...

Yet he flew in radio silence. Odd way to make a political statement. Or I suppose he expects rescuers to retrieve his suicide note from the wreckage...

 

[ace2000]

Remember 9/11?




Yet he flew in radio silence. Odd way to make a political statement. Or I suppose he expects rescuers to retrieve his suicide note from the wreckage...

Fair points. First, I'm not sure the Malaysians have released all the information. Secondly, there is still lots of time and ways for the story to come out.

What's the meaning of the 9/11 reference?

 

[JudyH]

I agree with ace2000. Those personal factors, follower of the political man who then was arrested for homosexual charges, wife then moved out. Perhaps the pilot also had a sexual relationship with this man...then upset, maybe being found out too, wife leaves him, commits suicide.

 

[ace2000]

I agree with ace2000. Those personal factors, follower of the political man who then was arrested for homosexual charges, wife then moved out. Perhaps the pilot also had a sexual relationship with this man...then upset, maybe being found out too, wife leaves him, commits suicide.

I'll go along with some of that. The man that was jailed is currently the number one opposition leader in Malaysia. The reports are that they met a few times prior, but nobody is suggesting they had that type of relationship. Most believe the man was falsely accused and is now jailed on trumped up charges.

 

[Bikeguy]

Deleted. Yes

 

[Clemson Fan]

I'd be curious to know where you think the "holes" are. On your question about why a suicidal pilot would fly the plane in complete silence for 7 hours - my theory goes back to post #4. He killed everyone to make a public political statement - he was a follower of the man who was jailed the very same day he flew the plane. He even was in attendance at the man's trial the day he flew the plane. It was also reported that his wife and kids moved out of their home that same day.

So, what are the odds of those incidents being a factor? I'd say the odds are much greater than the chance of an fire onboard the plane with no radio contact about the fire. An accidental cockpit fire on board a commercial airliner is extremely unlikely. I believe I heard somewhere that has never happened before.

Maybe, but what kind of political statement is it to effectively cause the plane to disappear by flying and crashing it to one of probably the most remote places on Earth? Why not dive it into a government building ala 9/11?

 

[Phydeaux]

Agreed.....And didn't Chinese satellites pick up "wreckage" days ago?

Once again, no wreckage no ping found. Surprise surprise.

Still sticking with my original theory, and without any compromises

 

[Clemson Fan]

Remember 9/11?

Yup, I do. That's why I believe in a post 9/11 world that there's no way in hell 239 passengers would let a hijacker fly a hijacked plane for 7 hours. They would've taken action unless of course they were all dead.

I said in a previous post I could possibly buy a pilot suicide or even a terrorist act/hijacking except for the plane flying for 7 hours to what appears to be one of the most remote places on Earth. Maybe the pilot botched the plan of killing everybody first through asphyxiation and he accidentally killed himself too?

I really don't know! That 7 hour flight to the middle of nowhere just perplexes me a great deal if it was an actual hijacking or pilot suicide which is why I lean back to more of some type of distress theory.