[2014] Most plausible explanation of mystery of Malasyian Flight 370

[MULTIZ321]

Or Phydeaux

BTW, the theory by Goodfellow that started this whole thread IMO is still the most plausible explanation of what might of hapenned. Did he get every detail right, of course not, but I think he got the gist of what hapenned right. Basically, something hapenned on the plane causing a loss of pressure and oxygen and everybody died on it many hours before it finally ran out of fuel and fell into the ocean. There was probably no nepharious or sinister event or pilot suicide or anything like that.

Hi Clemson Fan,

How does Goodfellow's theory account for the two left turns to take MH370 away from China and into the southern Indian Ocean? Also how does the theory account for the transponders being turned off?

I don't think that a nepharious or sinister event(s) or pilot suicide can be ruled out at this time.


Richard

 

[Clemson Fan]

Hi Clemson Fan,

How does Goodfellow's theory account for the two left turns to take MH370 away from China and into the southern Indian Ocean? Also how does the theory account for the transponders being turned off?

I don't think that a nepharious or sinister event(s) or pilot suicide can be ruled out at this time.


Richard

I don't think Goodfellow obviously got every detail correct. I don't know what to make of the 2 left turns. I'm wondering if they may be some red herrings or some bad reporting which we've seen plenty of (see below) with this mystery.

I think the transponder going silent falls in line pretty well with the electrical fire theory.

Saying the transponder was "turned off" implies that it was done intentionally. There has been some horrible journalism done on this story by some pretty well respected journalists and of course there's been the typical internet wild and crazy speculation in the blogosphere. There's no evidence that the transponder was intentionally "turned off" and all we know is that it did go offline/silent. To report that it was "turned off" (which many prominent journalists did report) connotates that it was an intentional act which we have no evidence of.

If it was hijacked, how come no terrorist organization has claimed responsibility? Previously we were told the answer to that question was because they had it in some hanger hidden away on some island somewhere to be used as a future bomb/missile ala 9/11. Well I think we're pretty sure now the plane isn't in some hanger getting prepared for some mastermind terrorist plot. So back to the original question, how come no terrorist organization has claimed responsibility for taking down a passenger jet killing however many 100's of people?

Again, I think what's looking like to be more and more the case that it flew silently for hours and hours out into the middle of nowhere really makes it more and more unlikely it was a hijacking or pilot suicide. You can make the argument that it was a botched hijacking or botched pilot suicide which caused everybody on the plane to die and the plane just righted itself and flew until it ran out of fuel, but I'm not really buying that.

 

[MULTIZ321]

I don't think Goodfellow obviously got every detail correct. I don't know what to make of the 2 left turns. I'm wondering if they may be some red herrings or some bad reporting which we've seen plenty of (see below) with this mystery.

I think the transponder going silent falls in line pretty well with the electrical fire theory.

Saying the transponder was "turned off" implies that it was done intentionally. There has been some horrible journalism done on this story by some pretty well respected journalists and of course there's been the typical internet wild and crazy speculation in the blogosphere. There's no evidence that the transponder was intentionally "turned off" and all we know is that it did go offline/silent. To report that it was "turned off" (which many prominent journalists did report) connotates that it was an intentional act which we have no evidence of.

If it was hijacked, how come no terrorist organization has claimed responsibility? Previously we were told the answer to that question was because they had it in some hanger hidden away on some island somewhere to be used as a future bomb/missile ala 9/11. Well I think we're pretty sure now the plane isn't in some hanger getting prepared for some mastermind terrorist plot. So back to the original question, how come no terrorist organization has claimed responsibility for taking down a passenger jet killing however many 100's of people?

Again, I think what's looking like to be more and more the case that it flew silently for hours and hours out into the middle of nowhere really makes it more and more unlikely it was a hijacking or pilot suicide. You can make the argument that it was a botched hijacking or botched pilot suicide which caused everybody on the plane to die and the plane just righted itself and flew until it ran out of fuel, but I'm not really buying that.

I can't envision any scenario that would make the two Left turns Red Herrings or bad reporting.

Point taken that the transponders did go offline/silent with no evidence that it was an intentional act. On the other hand, there's no evidence to the contrary either. If one subscribes to the electrical fire theory as causation for the transponders to go silent - then alarms should have been triggered in the cockpit and a radio call transmitted from the captain or co-pilot alerting ground control of the problem(s). No such call has been reported.

Hopefully, we'll get an announcement on Wednesday saying the wing-piece is from MH370 and the many families that lost loved ones will have some degree of closure.


Richard

 

[davidvel]

Not only did the transponder go off, but the ACARS (satellite communications system) was disabled. It was not incapacitated by lack of electricity, etc, and continued to respond to "pings" from a satellite that, at a minimum, tells investigators the plane was still up and running as was ACARS equipment (this went on for hours until about the time the plane would have run out of fuel, and in fact a new logon request at that time which would have occurred when backup power switched on after fuel starvation). Whoever switched off ACARS and transponder didn't account for this continued communication which is how they tracked (roughly) the flight to the Southern Indian Ocean.

People continue to believe in an accident scenario although no one can explain how the aircraft made a u-turn, a right turn and presumed left turn based on satellite data (and all experts confirm it could not have without pilot intervention), after shutting down its transponder and ACARS.

 

[Clemson Fan]

Point taken that the transponders did go offline/silent with no evidence that it was an intentional act. On the other hand, there's no evidence to the contrary either. If one subscribes to the electrical fire theory as causation for the transponders to go silent - then alarms should have been triggered in the cockpit and a radio call transmitted from the captain or co-pilot alerting ground control of the problem(s). No such call has been reported.

Could the radio not have been taken out by the same "event" that caused the transponder to go silent? Even if it wasn't, if there was a major catastrophic event going on my first reaction would be to work the problem an alerting ground control would be lower on the list. I think they probably lost consciousness before getting around to make a call - assuming that the radio was even still operational.

I really do hope they eventually find the plane and the orange boxes. I'd love to find out what went wrong and what happened.

 

[Clemson Fan]

Not only did the transponder go off, but the ACARS (satellite communications system) was disabled. It was not incapacitated by lack of electricity, etc, and continued to respond to "pings" from a satellite that, at a minimum, tells investigators the plane was still up and running as was ACARS equipment (this went on for hours until about the time the plane would have run out of fuel, and in fact a new logon request at that time which would have occurred when backup power switched on after fuel starvation). Whoever switched off ACARS and transponder didn't account for this continued communication which is how they tracked (roughly) the flight to the Southern Indian Ocean.

People continue to believe in an accident scenario although no one can explain how the aircraft made a u-turn, a right turn and presumed left turn based on satellite data (and all experts confirm it could not have without pilot intervention), after shutting down its transponder and ACARS.

Your post is very jumbled and contradictory. ACARS did not go offline and was not "disabled". My understanding is that ACARS is a completely separate system that's part of the engine and isn't connected to the transponder and other major electrical systems. The only thing the ACARS pings told investigators was that the engines were still running and they used satellite triangulation to figure out the position of the plane. ACARS was never switched off and there's no evidence that somebody intentionally switched the transponder off. The only thing we know is that the transponder went silent - we don't know why.

 

[DaveNV]

BTW, I was shocked to learn that this island which I previously never heard of before has a population of 850k. That's nearly the population of Oahu.

I've been to Mauritius, which is part of the same island chain as Reunion. It's beautiful country, and reminds me very much of Hawaii - without the Hawaiians. A British colony in the Indian Ocean not far from Madagascar. Lovely people, beautiful scenery, and a frequent vacation spot for Brits who want a semi-tropical vacation without flying all the way to the Caribbean or Hawaii.

If you've never heard of Reunion, then you probably haven't ever heard of Mauritius, either. But you have: Mauritius is where the Dodo bird lived. Seriously. They even have pictures of it on their money.

Dave

 

[Clemson Fan]

If you've never heard of Reunion, then you probably haven't ever heard of Mauritius, either. But you have: Mauritius is where the Dodo bird lived. Seriously. They even have pictures of it on their money.

Nope, never heard of that island as well. It doesn't surprise me that I don't know all the worlds geography, but the population of 850k really surprised me.

I think I do know all the inhabited islands in the Pacific and I've been to quite a few including Guam, Saipan and Tinian.

 

[MULTIZ321]

...If you've never heard of Reunion, then you probably haven't ever heard of Mauritius, either. But you have: Mauritius is where the Dodo bird lived. Seriously. They even have pictures of it on their money.

Dave

Richard

 

[MULTIZ321]

Hunt for MH370: Australia Won't Extend Search Effort Without New Clues - by Rob Taylor/ World/ The Wall Street Journal/ wsj.com

"Government rules out open-ended search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane...
"

Authorities measure the wing part that washed up on Réunion Island. Maxppp/Zuma Press

Richard

 

[DaveNV]

Richard

Thanks, Richard!

Dave

 

[MULTIZ321]

World Hopes for First Clues to MH370 Mystery - Marianne Barriaux, AFP/ BusinessInsider.com

Paris (AFP) - "Technical experts in France were to begin examining Wednesday whether a washed-up plane part belonged to missing flight MH370, raising hopes that some light may finally be shed on one of aviation's darkest mysteries.

The Boeing 777 disappeared on March 8 last year when it inexplicably veered course en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 people on board, and a colossal multinational hunt for the aircraft proved fruitless.

But last week's discovery of a two-metre-long wing part called a flaperon on the French Indian Ocean island of La Reunion raised fresh hopes for relatives desperate for answers.

The piece has been taken the southwestern French city of Toulouse, where it will undergo the high-profile examination.

The case containing the wing part will be opened early afternoon Wednesday, said a French source close to the case, in the presence of French and Malaysian experts, Boeing employees and representatives from China -- the country that lost the most passengers.

It is as yet unclear whether their conclusions will be announced on the same day or later, added the source, who wished to remain anonymous..."

Richard

 

[MULTIZ321]

Answer on Whether Boeing Part is From MH370 Could Come This Week - by Jethro Mullen/ World/ cnn.com


(CNN)—A definitive answer on whether a barnacle-encrusted plane part that washed up on an Indian Ocean island is part of missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 could come this week.

Expert analysis of the Boeing 777 wing component, which was found last week on the French island of Reunion, is due to begin Wednesday at a specialized laboratory in southwestern France.

If the part, known as a flaperon, is confirmed to be from Flight 370, it would be the first piece of physical evidence recovered from the Malaysian jetliner since it disappeared nearly 17 months ago with 239 people on board.

It's not yet clear when the results of the forensic examination will be announced. The deputy prime minister of Australia, the country leading the underwater search for the remains of MH370, said Wednesday that he believed an answer could come within days.

Richard

 

[SMHarman]

How many flaperon fall off Boeing in flight. Or get swapped out in service?

 

[MULTIZ321]

Malaysian Leader: Debris Found on Island is From Flight 370 - by Eileen Ng/ International/ abcnews.go.com

"A piece of a wing found washed up on Reunion Island last week is from Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 that vanished last year, Malaysia's prime minister announced early Thursday, saying he hoped the news would end the "unspeakable" uncertainty of the passengers' families..."


Richard

 

[MULTIZ321]

Malaysia and France Frustrate MH370 Relatives With Mixed Messages - by Ian Mader/ World/ Aviation/ time.com

(BEIJING) —"Families aching for closure after their relatives disappeared aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 last year vented their deep frustration Thursday at conflicting signals from Malaysia and France over whether the finding of a plane part had been confirmed.

“Why the hell do you have one confirm and one not?” asked Christchurch, New Zealand, resident Sara Weeks, whose brother Paul Weeks was aboard the flight that disappeared March 8, 2014 with 239 people aboard while en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

“Why not wait and get everybody on the same page so the families don’t need to go through this turmoil?” she said..."

Richard

 

[SmithOp]

I've been to Mauritius, which is part of the same island chain as Reunion. It's beautiful country, and reminds me very much of Hawaii - without the Hawaiians. A British colony in the Indian Ocean not far from Madagascar. Lovely people, beautiful scenery, and a frequent vacation spot for Brits who want a semi-tropical vacation without flying all the way to the Caribbean or Hawaii.

Dave

Dave, this comment comes across a little derogatory towards Hawaiians, care to explain? I've never had a problem with locals in Hawaii, but I have experienced rude, boorish tourists.

Did the colonial Brits eradicate all the indigenous people of Mauritius?


Sent from my iPad using the strange new version of Tapatalk

 

[csxjohn]

Dave, this comment comes across a little derogatory towards Hawaiians, care to explain? I've never had a problem with locals in Hawaii, but I have experienced rude, boorish tourists.

Did the colonial Brits eradicate all the indigenous people of Mauritius?


Sent from my iPad using the strange new version of Tapatalk

It will be interesting to see what Dave says but I did not read it that way at all.

I read it to mean it looks just like Hawaii without Hawaiian people there, not implying anything good or bad about those people, just that they are not on this island.

 

[davidvel]

It will be interesting to see what Dave says but I did not read it that way at all.

I read it to mean it looks just like Hawaii without Hawaiian people there, not implying anything good or bad about those people, just that they are not on this island.

That's how I read it as well.

 

[Beefnot]

That's how I read it as well.

Same here.

 

[MULTIZ321]

Wreckage From Malaysian Jet Validates Signals from Redmond-Built Black Box - by Steve Wilhelm/ Staff Writer, Puget Sound Business Journal/ Industry News/ Seattle/ bizjournals.com

"New evidence suggests that an acoustic beacon on a Redmond-built flight data recorder may have come close to locating Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 in the weeks after its disappearance last year.

The Everett-built Boeing (NYSE: BA) 777 300ER vanished after taking off March 8, 2014 from Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur on a flight to Beijing.

Last week's discovery of a flight control surface called a flaperon, which had washed up on the island of Reunion in the western Indian Ocean, confirms that the plane did crash and sink in that ocean — which was what the beacon had indicated..."




Richard

 

[John Cummings]

...I've never had a problem with locals in Hawaii, but I have experienced rude, boorish tourists.

I pretty well agree though I am not very impressed with the folks on the Big Island. In fact we don't like the Big Island at all. However the people on Oahu are very friendly and nice.

 

[MULTIZ321]

Barnacles Could Help Unlock the Mystery of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 - by Chiquita Paschal/ Science, Tech, and Environment/ Public Radio International/ pri.org

"Investigators searching for clues about what caused the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 to go down, and where, may have a surprising helper at their disposal: barnacles, those small crustaceans that attach themselves to things that dwell in the sea like whales or, well, airplane wreckage..."

Credit: Matt/CC BY-NC-ND 2.0


Richard

 

[PigsDad]

...I am not very impressed with the folks on the Big Island.

I feel the same way about the folks from southern California.

 

[MULTIZ321]

Experts Urge Caution over 'MH370' Wreckage' Found in Maldives - by Harriett Alexander/ World News/ The Telegraph/ www.telegraph.co.uk

" Authorities in the Maldives are examining items washed up on four of their beaches, as the hunt for wreckage from MH370 continues.

An object similar to the two-metre long "flaperon" wing fragment was discovered on the pristine beaches of honeymoon resort Banyan Tree Vabbinfaru, according to a local newspaper. The item was reportedly found in May, and is being analysed.

An official from the Maldives Police Service told Chinese news agency Xinhua that a police team, along with aviation experts, has begun investigating the piece of suspected plane debris, which was found on the beach of the private resort. According to local media reports, the piece is probably a plane part and measures five to seven inches long. It was not clear whether the part was from a Boeing 777 – the plane of MH370.

Debris was also found on three other islands – two in Baa Atoll and one in Noonu Atoll. But Haveeru, the local newspaper, said that those objects were likely to be rubbish from construction sites.

"Aircraft parts are made of carbon fibre composite material," said an aeronautical engineer quoted by the paper. "The debris found in those islands do not appear to be made from such material." ..."

Debris from the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 may have washed up on an island in Maldives Photo: www.facebook.com/modrindo


Richard