Bottom line is that one should not assume unrealized capital cost until it is sold.
A developer TS purchase (which is what is needed to get to 4* or 5*) is worth much less the moment you make the purchase. Choosing to ignore this "unrealized" loss distorts the true cost associated with the TS purchase (and conversion into SPs). People can make different assumptions about how much this loss will be but any newbie thinking about this shouldn't be led to conclude that it's okay to ignore this cost.
Opportunity Cost. This is perhaps the most misused term in timeshare cost "analysis". It is theoretical, and almost always has no basis in reality. It presumes that in the absence of the discretionary timeshare purchase, there would not be an alternative cost of accommodations and travel.
If this is the case, there would no financial justification
for the timeshare purchase in the first place.
Almost always, the alternative costs will exceed any return on retained capital.
Fred, opportunity cost has nothing to do with alternative cost of accomodation. IMO, you're mixing apples and oranges here; not incurring alternative cost of accomodation is the "benefit" (savings) that come with a TS purchase. Opportunity cost is simply what one might reasonably have expected to do with the money used to purchase the TS. If the money would be stored in a mattress, opportunity cost is zero; if kept in a bank checking account, again close to zero at current rates. Most financial planners would suggest that using 4% for a long-term return on investing this money is reasonable.
I am not debating the validity of the analytical approach taken by some. It is their reality, and it how they choose to view the matter.
I do, however, take exception to the notion that theirs is the only "right" cost analysis.
I'm not suggesting that my "numbers" are exactly right. Each person needs to make assumptions they are comfortable with when it comes to expected capital loss and opportunity cost. I am suggesting however that ignoring these two pieces is wrong analysis and an example of fuzzy math.