Anyone notice a slowdown in travel?

[PamMo]

The airlines and Customs and Border Protection have certainly noticed a decline in travel.

https://www.thestreet.com/travel/air-canada-canceling-us-flights

Numbers from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) show that crossings at the northern border fell by 12.5% in February and 18% in March — all amid an atmosphere in which the Trump administration continues to push forward with detentions and deportations at the border while antagonizing Canada with comments about it being the "51st state."​

​

Travel agency Flight Centre Travel Group Canada published a report showing that business travel from Canada fell by 40% in the first months of 2025. The U.S. Travel Association estimated that even a 10% reduction in Canadian tourism would result in the industry losing 140,000 jobs and $2.1 billion (the actual decrease has already been documented as higher).​

US airlines forced to cut flights as travel across the country drops

Airlines reported that they would trim its flight schedule for the second half of the year due to lower demand

www.the-independent.com

American Airlines became the latest to withdraw its 2025 financial guidance on Thursday, following similar moves by Southwest and Delta. All three airlines pointed to a decline in bookings from economy leisure travelers as a key factor in the increasingly uncertain economic landscape.​

​

United to cut flights this summer amid economic uncertainty, softer demand

United Airlines is the latest major U.S. carrier to warn that the current economic environment could cut into demand. The carrier said it will trim its domestic capacity starting in the summer.

www.foxbusiness.com

The Chicago-based carrier [United] said in a regulatory filing on Tuesday that it is cutting domestic capacity by about 4% starting in the third quarter of 2025, "in response to the current demand environment." The airline's third quarter covers July, August and September, traditionally a peak travel period. ​

​

Additionally, the carrier announced in its quarterly earnings report that it will also make changes to how often it uses its planes, including flying less on slower travel days, through the end of 2025.​

 

[dioxide45]

I wonder if there has been a slowdown in traffic to the TUG websites? I know when the cyclical nature of seasonal travel changes, views on my YouTube channel go up and down. Views usually start to increase after Christmas and peak in March then decline through May and start to go back up and peak again in late July. September through December is always low. I haven’t really noticed any significant drop in numbers in 2025 vs. 2024.

 

[andre10056]

Although it appears from this thread that there is an intellectual debate about whether travelers may or may not be coming to the US from Canada, numerous Youtube videos indicate that a boycott is indeed occurring and is actually at higher levels than may have been anticipated. Here's one of many such videos:

Here's another:

 

[dioxide45]

Although it appears from this thread that there is an intellectual debate about whether travelers may or may not be coming to the US from Canada, numerous Youtube videos indicate that a boycott is indeed occurring and is actually at higher levels than may have been anticipated. Here's one of many such videos:

I don’t think there is any doubt there are fewer travelers coming from Canada and even other countries. Perhaps there are also fewer Americans traveling abroad. Though I don’t know if there are any numbers to show that yet. I did ask my parents if they wanted co come visit us this summer. They live in Canada. They said they would think about it. They haven’t said yet if they plan to come. I don’t know if it is about the current situation or other things they might have going on. Retirement life for them is quite busy.

Lately I’ve been enjoying longer driving trips vs. flying. Next year we are considering a trip to Colorado and may take the long way and drive. Seeing if we can book timeshare properties within five to six hours of each other. We recently did this when driving to Ohio to visit family over the course of five weeks. The longest drive was from Atlanta to Myrtle Beach and seemed a little longer than we would like for one day. Sure we could drive longer, but the long 10-12 drives are no longer for us and even the day long travel days of flying are tiresome. I would much rather drive up to six hours, stay somewhere for a week then drive again. I suspect we can make it happen between our Marriott, and Club Wyndham ownership and peicing in II getaways and RCI Last Call and Extra Vacaitons.

 

[andre10056]

I don’t think there is any doubt there are fewer travelers coming from Canada and even other countries. Perhaps there are also fewer Americans traveling abroad. Though I don’t know if there are any numbers to show that yet. I did ask my parents if they wanted co come visit us this summer. They live in Canada. They said they would think about it. They haven’t said yet if they plan to come. I don’t know if it is about the current situation or other things they might have going on. Retirement life for them is quite busy.

Lately I’ve been enjoying longer driving trips vs. flying. Next year we are considering a trip to Colorado and may take the long way and drive. Seeing if we can book timeshare properties within five to six hours of each other. We recently did this when driving to Ohio to visit family over the course of five weeks. The longest drive was from Atlanta to Myrtle Beach and seemed a little longer than we would like for one day. Sure we could drive longer, but the long 10-12 drives are no longer for us and even the day long travel days of flying are tiresome. I would much rather drive up to six hours, stay somewhere for a week then drive again. I suspect we can make it happen between our Marriott, and Club Wyndham ownership and peicing in II getaways and RCI Last Call and Extra Vacaitons.

I think "piecing together" and minimizing travel time between stays is a great strategy, especially if there's greater availability of all of the above. But even though Canada is not timeshare central, it's a wonderland during the summer, so visiting your parents may not be a bad move.

 

[dioxide45]

I think "piecing together: and minimizing travel time is a great strategy, especially if there's greater availability of all of the above. But even though Canada is not timeshare central, it's a wonderland during the summer, so visiting your parents may not be a bad move.

We went there last summer. We have three two weeks in timeshares units large enough for us all this year. So we invited them down. We’ll see what happens.

 

[mcdanielpj]

I recently flew for the first time in a few years. What struck me was the incredible amount of hiking involved in getting around an airport. When we flew with my in-laws in the 1980s and 1990s, I remember there being lots of golf carts rushing around the airport to assist people who were having a hard time getting to their gates. Now that I'm old and huffing enough to need those golf carts, they are GONE.

A few years ago we checked in for a flight out of Heathrow and at security, the agent said to me, "Are you going to be okay? Your gate is about a twenty-minute walk from here." I said, "Is there an alternative?" She said, "Well, no." So I was like, "I guess I have to be okay!"

I think you might have to order a wheelchair to be sure you get one. I fractured my knee at Lake Louise and had to reserve one in Calgary -- that airport is so big, it would have been a LOOOONG walk without one.

 

[WinniWoman]

I don’t think there is any doubt there are fewer travelers coming from Canada and even other countries. Perhaps there are also fewer Americans traveling abroad. Though I don’t know if there are any numbers to show that yet. I did ask my parents if they wanted co come visit us this summer. They live in Canada. They said they would think about it. They haven’t said yet if they plan to come. I don’t know if it is about the current situation or other things they might have going on. Retirement life for them is quite busy.

Lately I’ve been enjoying longer driving trips vs. flying. Next year we are considering a trip to Colorado and may take the long way and drive. Seeing if we can book timeshare properties within five to six hours of each other. We recently did this when driving to Ohio to visit family over the course of five weeks. The longest drive was from Atlanta to Myrtle Beach and seemed a little longer than we would like for one day. Sure we could drive longer, but the long 10-12 drives are no longer for us and even the day long travel days of flying are tiresome. I would much rather drive up to six hours, stay somewhere for a week then drive again. I suspect we can make it happen between our Marriott, and Club Wyndham ownership and peicing in II getaways and RCI Last Call and Extra Vacaitons.

We once thought of doing that at one time, but we then thought we’d still have to turn around and come back home. Plus we don’t like being away more than 2 or 3 weeks.

 

[WinniWoman]

Our neighbors go down to South Carolina for 6 weeks every year and they said that a lot of Canadians are selling their vacation homes there this year.

 

[jp10558]

I don’t think there is any doubt there are fewer travelers coming from Canada and even other countries. Perhaps there are also fewer Americans traveling abroad. Though I don’t know if there are any numbers to show that yet. I did ask my parents if they wanted co come visit us this summer. They live in Canada. They said they would think about it. They haven’t said yet if they plan to come. I don’t know if it is about the current situation or other things they might have going on. Retirement life for them is quite busy.

Lately I’ve been enjoying longer driving trips vs. flying. Next year we are considering a trip to Colorado and may take the long way and drive. Seeing if we can book timeshare properties within five to six hours of each other. We recently did this when driving to Ohio to visit family over the course of five weeks. The longest drive was from Atlanta to Myrtle Beach and seemed a little longer than we would like for one day. Sure we could drive longer, but the long 10-12 drives are no longer for us and even the day long travel days of flying are tiresome. I would much rather drive up to six hours, stay somewhere for a week then drive again. I suspect we can make it happen between our Marriott, and Club Wyndham ownership and peicing in II getaways and RCI Last Call and Extra Vacaitons.

I don't know if I'll ever be able to make that happen, but I have been thinking - I should be able to get together a timeshare trip across the country and back, just not sure I could be away for like 2 or more months. I probably would still need to use some hotel stays just so I don't stretch it out "forever". In some ways the recent ~ 3 week trips have been long enough for my Mom. IDK how my sister and BIL would like a longer trip - they do keep wanting to "snowbird" but it's unclear if we can afford too long away in the winter cause of potential frozen pipes if anything goes wrong, plus their cats get mad - and I don't want to take animals on a trip. I might try for 4 weeks if we decide to go in January next year. That all depends on if Hawaii matches for later in the year on II I think.

 

[andre10056]

Our neighbors go down to South Carolina for 6 weeks every year and they said that a lot of Canadians are selling their vacation homes there this year.

Apparently, it's not just the Canadians....although the Canadians may have contributed to the overall panic:

Panic as US vacation rental boom collapses and owners rush to sell at steep discounts - NewsBreak

Vacation homes are being ditched at a rapid rate as a wave of fresh fears about the markets crashing and a lack of renters hit sellers.

www.newsbreak.com

Also contributing to the panic sale of vacation properties is the severe slowdown in vacation rentals. From the same article:

"It's even worse for owners who depend on rental incomes to keep the home.

Airbnb demand has crashed and rental rates are priced too high, and landlords who want a quick profit just aren't getting it."

Expedia had months ago predicted that 2025 would be a continuation of recent boom travel years. It just released its 1st quarter results last Thursday after market close and they were significantly weaker than expected.. But even worse was their guidance going forward. The foregoing contributed to Expedia's stock plummeting last Friday. On the earnings call, their CFO stated the following:

"Demand in the U.S. was softer than expected, which was a headwind given two-thirds of our business comes from the U.S. point of sale," Schenkel said. "We also noticed softness in demand for inbound travel into the U.S., which was down 7%. As part of that, inbound bookings from Canada fell nearly 30%."

So what may this mean for timeshare owners? To me, if you're an owner trying to rent out your timeshare, it means price your rentals at the rock "bottomiest" of rates. It means as a prospective renter negotiate aggressively about any vacation rental as your lowest of lowball offers will likely be accepted.

The world has changed on a dime and we have to change with it.

 

[jp10558]

So what may this mean for timeshare owners? It means as a prospective renter negotiate aggressively about any vacation rental as your lowest of lowball offers will likely be accepted.

Ohh, if only I didn't have this jury duty uncertainty on me for June, I'd be putting up wishlist stuff on TUG I guess. I like RCI extra Vacations rental prices at more locations...

 

[WaikikiFirst]

I missed the link to the source of the data

Thanks for confirming my view that it is nothing but OPA around here.
Opinions.
Preferences.
Anecdotes.
Almost nobody has the initiative to spend 20 sec using google to find the data that will make their Opinion 10x more accurate … even AFTER I give them all the keywords they need to make it simple. You know how to spot someone with zero analytical skills?

• They have no idea how much data is available.
• They wouldn’t know what to do with it if they bothered to go out and get it

 

[WaikikiFirst]

TSA does not track visitors entering the USA. My references are from Statistics Canada

“Almost no one is travelling to the USA right now” And yet TSA stats for flyers flying in the USA are better than they have been for months!
“as I have stated, TSA does not track visitors entering the USA. My references are from Statistics Canada data”

 

[WaikikiFirst]

And now, 2 wks after the hilarious initial display of “analysis”, the TSA data is even stronger.
It is fair to say that the 14 DMA of TSA’s data has been RISING since about March 1st. (but basically nobody here knows what 14 DMA means or why it matters)

 

[dioxide45]

And now, 2 wks after the hilarious initial display of “analysis”, the TSA data is even stronger.
It is fair to say that the 14 DMA of TSA’s data has been RISING since about March 1st. (but basically nobody here knows what 14 DMA means or why it matters)

Is your only measure of travel volume based on TSA numbers?

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Is your only measure of travel volume based on TSA numbers?

oh no, I live & die by anecdotes. Give me OPA or give me death!
There are other data that are also far better than the OPA around here, but since nobody here gives a damn about anything but OPA, why would I present more Pearls?
When you have digested the TSA #s, get back to us for more.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Is your only measure of travel volume based on TSA numbers?

I'll bet you don't know that the DoT has 1,000s (10Ks?) of sensors set up around the country that count cars as they pass,
and that ... wait for it ... they also make that data freely available ... and I think they release it daily also ... but I haven't looked at it in a decade.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Is your only measure of travel volume based on TSA numbers?

We just got back from a 9 day drive down and back up the CA coast. > 1,000 miles of volume. How's that for OPA?
Great weather. Then this AM, our first one back, it rains up here, in mid-May. That doesn't happen often. Mid-May.

 

[jp10558]

And now, 2 wks after the hilarious initial display of “analysis”, the TSA data is even stronger.
It is fair to say that the 14 DMA of TSA’s data has been RISING since about March 1st. (but basically nobody here knows what 14 DMA means or why it matters)

https://www.ustravel.org/us-travel-snapshot-april-2025 seems to claim that international travel is down in April, but actually the graph looks like it's down from Feb 2025.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/international-tourists-domestic-american-travel-abroad.html

and https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/26/plane-tickets-cheap-travel.html seem to also show companies like Expedia say travel is slowing, and Airline pricing is down 5% - which doesn't seem like it would happen, along with cutting flights if travel was staying the same or increasing for the second half of the year. Maybe I just don't understand these news articles? Maybe they're all lying?

https://ftnnews.com/travel-news/tours/overseas-visitor-arrivals-to-the-us-decline-in-march-2025/ claims numbers down in March and below pre-pandemic values, yet American outbound is up.

https://skift.com/2025/04/08/u-s-tourism-data-warning-visits-from-europe-dropped-in-march/ says right up top "Visitors to the U.S. from 20 major countries dropped 10.3% in March from a year earlier, according to new data published Tuesday by the U.S. International Trade Administration."

EDIT: Are you sure you searched all the data and reports?

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Are you sure you searched all the data and reports?

you're lost in the trees, which isn't surprising
cnbc? LMAO

 

[andre10056]

oh no, I live & die by anecdotes. Give me OPA or give me death!
There are other data that are also far better than the OPA around here, but since nobody here gives a damn about anything but OPA, why would I present more Pearls?
When you have digested the TSA #s, get back to us for more.

I'm not so sure that the information shared during its earnings call by Expedia, owner of Expedia, Hotels.com, VRBO, and others, can be dismissed as "OPA". Why are you going to such lengths, via emotional attacks, etc., to try to establish something contrary to so many sources of information (including but definitely not limited to, "anecdotal" information)?

Indeed, the anecdotal information provided by CanuckTraveler helps to explain. Looking at raw data without investigating "why" is not at all helpful.

From my post above:

"Expedia had months ago predicted that 2025 would be a continuation of recent boom travel years. It just released its 1st quarter results last Thursday after market close and they were significantly weaker than expected.. But even worse was their guidance going forward. The foregoing contributed to Expedia's stock plummeting last Friday. On the earnings call, their CFO stated the following:

"Demand in the U.S. was softer than expected, which was a headwind given two-thirds of our business comes from the U.S. point of sale," Schenkel said. "We also noticed softness in demand for inbound travel into the U.S., which was down 7%. As part of that, inbound bookings from Canada fell nearly 30%.""

So "inbound bookings from Canada fell nearly 30%" Wow! Without CanuckTraveler's anecdotal information, we might not have any idea why that amazingly significant decline occurred. And now we have a clue. And how might this clue help us to predict what may happen going forward?

Logically, I might conclude, as CanuckTraveler concluded above, that the decline might even get worse. It's hard to boycott even if you might want to after having arranged for non-refundable lodging and/or air travel. But that might have been a short term factor in the Spring that has now passed. So I might logically conclude, as Expedia concluded via its poor guidance for the remainder of this year, that people in the travel industry will have a poor year in 2025.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

seem to also show companies like Expedia say travel is slowing

as I and at least one other person pointed out, Expedia etc will be looking at bookings many moths out. As I said way back up there 2 wks ago, the #s could fall noticeably, esp for specific routes. Could. In the future. What we have here are people with no analytical skills using OPA and minutely-marginal data to pund their chests and make themselves feel important.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

So "inbound bookings from Canada fell nearly 30%" Wow! Without CanuckTraveler's anecdotal information, we might not have any idea why that amazingly significant decline occurred.

What? You didnt' know they were pounding their chests with nationalistic fervor? You didn't know this would happen? It is canada.
Was the question about "travel volume" in the USA? (as dioxide correctly put it)
Have no idea? canada was predictable. LOL, it just isn't "amazingly significant" in the big picture.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

going to such lengths

actually using relevant data ... yeah, I know, around here that is going to a great length. Want to hear about how all the restaurants in S Diego are empty instead?