Anyone notice a slowdown in travel?

[billymach4]

I just flew home after visiting my son and both flights were full. On the return flight, I was early and asked if I could take an earlier flight and I was told that the flight was full as well. I got home and my friend asked me today as to whether the flight was full or not. I wonder how much of this slowdown in travel news is fear mongering as opposed to reality.

Media hype for sure

 

[CanuckTravlr]

Not all routes will be affected the same. Airlines have become very good at managing flight capacity. Also, if available seats are reduced on a route, then the flights will still seem to be full, even if travel numbers are down. If the airline, origin, and destination aren't stated it is not very useful for evaluative purposes.

The numbers seem to show that domestic travel has been less affected than international travel, especially inbound trips to the USA. But, of course, anecdotal evidence always trumps travel statistics from original sources. Therefore, the conclusion is: "fearmongering" and "media hype". Got it!

 

[Ken555]

All I know is that I'm glad that my upcoming travel car rental rate continues to decline.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

numbers seem to show that domestic travel has been less affected than international travel, especially inbound trips to the USA. But, of course, anecdotal evidence always trumps travel statistics from original sources. Therefore, the conclusion is: "fearmongering" and "media hype". Got it!

TSA's daily headcount of travelers at the US borders show no impact. It is fearmongering and media hype, so far. Most people make flight reservations well in advance, so we shall see how it goes. However it goes, we can be sure the media will hyper-ventilate over a decimal place. Lucky for them so few people understand math.
I gave y'all a source for data. You'll just ignore it and go on with the fearmongering. Did you ever notice how when the echo-chamber gets smaller, the sound intensity rises? Funny how that works.

For the stubborn: Y/Y change in TSA's daily headcount of travelers at the US borders is 0%, which is BETTER THAN IT WAS IN JAN/FEB. Now, Ollie, how could that be? All my friends have such juicy anecdotes.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Not all routes will be affected the same. Airlines have become very good at managing flight capacity

LOL, but the first route with a few empty seats will be on the "news" 24 x 7, and that is all you will listen to. TSA's #s are not about capacity. THey are about people, living, breathing ones I assume.

 

[CanuckTravlr]

TSA's daily headcount of travelers at the US borders show no impact. It is fearmongering and media hype, so far. Most people make flight reservations well in advance, so we shall see how it goes. However it goes, we can be sure the media will hyper-ventilate over a decimal place.
I gave y'all a source for data. You'll just ignore it and go on with the fearmongering. Did you ever notice how when the echo-chamber gets smaller, the sound intensity rises? Funny how that works.

For the stubborn: Y/Y change in TSA's daily headcount of travelers at the US borders is 0%, which is BETTER THAN IT WAS IN JANUARY. Now, Ollie, how could that be? All my friends have such juicy anecdotes.

I also gave sources for my numbers for travellers from Canada in my initial post. They don't jive with yours. Canadians and international travellers don't go through TSA. TSA is domestic. My stats come from US CBP and Statistics Canada. Also, most Canadian travellers to the USA cross at land borders and those are down even more.

I can also give you anecdotal information from everyone I know. Almost no one is travelling to the USA right now, unless they have to for work or had pre-booked, non-refundable trips. There are also lots of commentaries both on here and from tourist destinations in places like Tennessee, California, Washington, Florida, New York, and Maine about the relative absence of Canadians, both physically and in terms of bookings compared to past years.

But you keep on with the conspiracy theories and believe what you wish, Ollie!!

 

[WaikikiFirst]

I'm sure you can ignore the actual data and spew spurious anecdotes allllllllllllllllllllllllllll dayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy longggggggggggggggggggggggg.
Well-built echo chamber.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Almost no one is travelling to the USA right now

This is all we need to know about your ability to stick to facts. Are you a "journalist"?

 

[CanuckTravlr]

I'm sure you can ignore the actual data and spew spurious anecdotes allllllllllllllllllllllllllll dayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy longggggggggggggggggggggggg.
Well-built echo chamber.

No. You're the one ignoring the actual data and making anecdotal commentary. But facts seem few and far between in the US these days. We'll just watch Faux News instead.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

So you think TSA is lying? Are they counting imaginary people? Zombies? I heard someone in Sault Ste. Marie decided to not drive to MI for some "entertainment". So, ya, TSA is all wet. When will they interview you on 60 Minutes?

 

[WaikikiFirst]

making anecdotal commentary

appears you don't know what the word "anecdote" means. I used zero anecdotes. Just the data. (well, there is the SSMarie headline)

 

[CanuckTravlr]

So you think TSA is lying? Are they counting imaginary people? Zombies? I heard someone in Sault Ste. Marie decided to not drive to MI for some "entertainment". So, ya, TSA is all wet. When will they interview you on 60 Minutes?

What do you not understand about the fact that international travellers are not picked up in TSA's data? International travellers do not pass through TSA unless they are leaving the USA or taking a US domestic flight. So they do not reflect the arrivals by international travellers nor land border crossing numbers.

 

[Rolltydr]

What do you not understand about the fact that international travellers are not picked up in TSA's data? International travellers do not pass through TSA unless they are leaving the USA or taking a US domestic flight. So they do not reflect the arrivals by international travellers nor land border crossing numbers.

Some people have a hard time with logic. And facts.

 

[davidvel]

appears you don't know what the word "anecdote" means. I used zero anecdotes. Just the data. (well, there is the SSMarie headline)

I missed the link to the source of the data you keep referring to. What post is it in?

 

[CanuckTravlr]

If you click the link to the article, the percentage drop numbers are underlined in blue. If you click that it will take you to Statistics Canada's website for the most recent data. I didn't provide a specific link for CBP, but have also seen data in other articles from them.

I missed the link to the source of the data you keep referring to. What post is it in?

 

[davidvel]

If you click the link to the article, the percentage drop numbers are underlined in blue. If you click that it will take you to Statistics Canada's website for the most recent data. I didn't provide a specific link for CBP, but have also seen data in other articles from them.

I was replying to Waikikifirst who refers to TSA data. Is that source in the article?

 

[moonstone]

The largest group of travellers to the USA are from Canada.

We drove across the Peace Bridge (at Buffalo NY) on our way home from FL on Tues. I looked back at the US entry Customs/Immigration booths as we passed by and there were only 2 lanes out of the 10 or 12 for cars open. There were no cars in line, 1 car pulling away from a booth, another car approaching the booths and no cars on the bridge. There were about a dozen tractor trailers in their 2 open lanes (out of 4 or 5) and lots driving south across the bridge. We have used that bridge several times a year for many years and even the few times we crossed between midnight and 5am we have never seen so few cars heading to the USA. There were also very few cars heading into Canada, I think there were 6 lanes open (out of 12?) with 1 car in each line as we pulled up. I would bet there will be (or are) some border agents getting laid off or re-assigned to another position.

When our DD flew down (from YYZ) to TPA a few weeks ago to visit our DS & DiL, she said there were still a lot of people in line at US customs preclearance but not as many as there usually is at 4:30am.


~Diane

 

[moonstone]

Almost no one is travelling to the USA right now, unless they have to for work or had pre-booked, non-refundable trips.

Our DS (a Canadian) was transferred to the USA when he got his promotion 2 years ago and he was saying his management are telling the employees of both countries to keep cross border travel to a minimum. DS of course has a Canadian passport with a L1 (I think it is) Visa so he would have no trouble entering Canada but the company is worried about him re-entering the USA even with the visa.

Our other DS & DiL are both teachers (college & high school) and they were telling us all school trips to the USA are cancelled except for a high school seniors trip to DC in 3 weeks and only because the school couldn't get refunds. They are looking at travelling within Canada or doing extra fundraising and arranging trips to Europe for next year.

Our DD was to attend a North American Professional Planners conference last month and all Canadian attendees that she knows of cancelled their plans. She was really looking forward to going to Colorado!


~Diane

 

[CanuckTravlr]

I was replying to Waikikifirst who refers to TSA data. Is that source in the article?

OK, sorry, eh!!

The article I was referencing was in my initial post #64. It makes no reference to TSA stats, since as I have stated, TSA does not track visitors entering the USA. My references are from Statistics Canada data for returning residents with Canadian plates, passports, or permanent resident cards. I have also seen data for international visitors, including Canadians, entering the USA by air or land on the US CBP website. Neither Canada nor the USA generally have exit controls and therefore do not track traffic exiting either country.

 

[slip]

All the Canadians that are traveling must be coming to Molokai. Everyone I have met here for the last few months are from Canada. Lol

 

[CanuckTravlr]

All the Canadians that are traveling must be coming to Molokai. Everyone I have met here for the last few months are from Canada. Lol

I don't think I or anyone else said that no Canadians were travelling to the US, just that there has been a significant reduction since January, compared to the equivalent periods in 2024. It will never be close to 100% in any case, for a number of reasons. Also, vacations that often require more advanced planning, such as Hawai'i or timeshares, may involve larger, non-refundable costs, such as airfare. Anything booked prior to January could be impacted by that situation.

Canadians are the largest single nationality of international travellers to the USA. Your own U.S. Travel Association has estimated that even a 10% decline in Canadian tourism could result in a $2.1 billion (USD) hit to the US travel economy in 2025 alone and threaten 140,000 American jobs. So far, the decline seems to be more than that.

Many interviewed here have indicated future plans may involve substituting future travel to the US with visiting within Canada, or going to places such as Mexico, the Caribbean, and Europe. To get into more depth on the reasons would likely take this into the controversial or political realm, so I'm trying not to go there. So far, the decline in trips seems to worsen each month, compared to 2024. Only time will tell if this is an ongoing change. I was simply pointing out a trend. You're certainly free to come to your own conclusions.

 

[SmithOp]

I'm in Waikiki this weekend and the streets are busy with tourists, half of them asian (mostly Japanese).

it's still shoulder season here, I expect more will arrive in summer.

 

[Luanne]

My guess is that travel that had been planned well in advance, and especially that which was prepaid, is still being taken. It will be interesting to see what happens with future travel.

 

[slip]

I don't think I or anyone else said that no Canadians were travelling to the US, just that there has been a significant reduction since January, compared to the equivalent periods in 2024. It will never be close to 100% in any case, for a number of reasons. Also, vacations that often require more advanced planning, such as Hawai'i or timeshares, may involve larger, non-refundable costs, such as airfare. Anything booked prior to January could be impacted by that situation.

Canadians are the largest single nationality of international travellers to the USA. Your own U.S. Travel Association has estimated that even a 10% decline in Canadian tourism could result in a $2.1 billion (USD) hit to the US travel economy in 2025 alone and threaten 140,000 American jobs. So far, the decline seems to be more than that.

Many interviewed here have indicated future plans may involve substituting future travel to the US with visiting within Canada, or going to places such as Mexico, the Caribbean, and Europe. To get into more depth on the reasons would likely take this into the controversial or political realm, so I'm trying not to go there. So far, the decline in trips seems to worsen each month, compared to 2024. Only time will tell if this is an ongoing change. I was simply pointing out a trend. You're certainly free to come to your own conclusions.

Relax, did you not see the Lol. Lol
I know the sample size is extremely small and means nothing.

Like everything else this will play out over time and time will tell.

 

[1Kflyerguy]

The airport and planes seemed typical on our trip to Palm Desert last March, though I did notice a lot fewer Canadian license plates around town than I remember from prior trips. I did speak with one guy from Canada who tried to rent his weeks but could not find anyone on short notice, so he felt forced to use the weeks since he obviously paid the fees.

Most of the major airlines are adjusting their earnings down, and removing capacity from their schedules due to lower demand. A few of the big credit car issuers are also reporting lower spending on credit cards. People maybe shifting to less expensive trips.