Anyone notice a slowdown in travel?

[WaikikiFirst]

And I still missed the link to the data you keep referring to. Can you provide a link to the source of your data that shows TSA's daily headcount of travelers coming into the country? (Apparently not.)

I'm busy tying your shoes for you.
A) They don't know how much data is available
B) They wouldn't know what to do with it if SOMEBODY ELSE GAVE IT TO THEM.
adding a (C)
C) they pretend they may have tried themselves

 

[jp10558]

I do also love the idea that
1) Google shows the same responses to everyone - research on that!
2) any serious person wanting to claim authority of cited sources would... you know... refuse to cite the source and instead say "you aren't smart enough to find it"
3) that Google is the best way to research anything.
4) for some reason the TSA would be the authority on general travel in the US, forget about Internation travel TO the US.

So I'm just going to throw out that I have a source in the FBI that clearly shows all travel in the US is down in April, and no I can't cite it, and you should be able to google it if you knew anything about anything. /s

The hubris and clear lack of self awareness is astounding, but then again, it is the Internet.

 

[davidvel]

I do also love the idea that
1) Google shows the same responses to everyone - research on that!
2) any serious person wanting to claim authority of cited sources would... you know... refuse to cite the source and instead say "you aren't smart enough to find it"
3) that Google is the best way to research anything.
4) for some reason the TSA would be the authority on general travel in the US, forget about Internation travel TO the US.

So I'm just going to throw out that I have a source in the FBI that clearly shows all travel in the US is down in April, and no I can't cite it, and you should be able to google it if you knew anything about anything. /s

The hubris and clear lack of self awareness is astounding, but then again, it is the Internet.

I know the answer but I'm not going to tell you! Nana, nana, nana.

 

[davidvel]

TSA's daily headcount of travelers at the US borders show no impact. It is fearmongering and media hype, so far. Most people make flight reservations well in advance, so we shall see how it goes. However it goes, we can be sure the media will hyper-ventilate over a decimal place. Lucky for them so few people understand math.
I gave y'all a source for data. You'll just ignore it and go on with the fearmongering. Did you ever notice how when the echo-chamber gets smaller, the sound intensity rises? Funny how that works.

For the stubborn: Y/Y change in TSA's daily headcount of travelers at the US borders is 0%, which is BETTER THAN IT WAS IN JAN/FEB. Now, Ollie, how could that be? All my friends have such juicy anecdotes.

Of course, TSA cannot measure travelers coming into the U.S. Maybe you are confused (obvs.) and mean CBP? If so, let's look at stats from CBP showing travelers coming into the U.S. Oh, they are down since February, lower than both 2024 and 2023. Miracles!

 

[bnoble]

Here's what appears to be a semi-reliable data source.

U.S. Travel Snapshot April 2025

www.ustravel.org

 

[andre10056]

Here's what appears to be a semi-reliable data source.

U.S. Travel Snapshot April 2025

www.ustravel.org

I'm with WakikiFirst and I'm going to reject US Travel Association's obvious OPA (opinions, preferences, and anecdotes) masquerading as real data. I much prefer WF's untitled, unlabeled chart which clearly shows the exact opposite:

since nobody here worries about getting backing data, here you go. That took 8 seconds to find. LOL. It just isn't emotional and bombastic. Drat!

Currency in USD	Current Qtr. (Jun 2025)	Next Qtr. (Sep 2025)	Current Year (2025)	Next Year (2026)
Current Estimate	3.99	6.88	14.22	16.68
7 Days Ago	3.96	6.73	14.01	16.47
30 Days Ago	4.08	6.82	14.22	16.74

That chart is not only NOT emotional and bombastic, but also makes WakikiFirst's point(s) as clearly as can be. And it only took him/her 8 seconds to find! Case closed.

 

[davidvel]

I'm with WakikiFirst and I'm going to reject US Travel Association's obvious OPA (opinions, preferences, and anecdotes) masquerading as real data. I much prefer WF's untitled, unlabeled chart which clearly shows the exact opposite:




That chart is not only NOT emotional and bombastic, but also makes WakikiFirst's point(s) as clearly as can be. And it only took him/her 8 seconds to find! Case closed.

Undoubtedly, Expedia's earning estimates are directly linked to the rate of international travelers coming to the U.S.
Undisputable evidence. The Wicked Witch of the West told him so.

 

[TUGBrian]

ive seen parents have more adult arguments at tball games...

enough.

 

[andre10056]

The scariest thing about the US Travel Association data is the following:

International Travel to the United States is Trending Down ​

• Based on preliminary data from the Department of Commerce, U.S. Customs and Border Protection and outside organizations, international visits to the United States fell approximately 14% in March 2025 compared to the same period last year.

The decline is most notable in:

• Canada: 26% annual decline in overnight land trips in March and air travel down 14% YoY (StatsCan).
• Western Europe: 17% decline in visits for March of 2025 is the first decline since 2021 (Department of Commerce).
• Asia: A second consecutive month of declines in visits from a region still 25% below 2019 levels (Department of Commerce).
• South America: 10% decrease in visits in March after a flat February (Department of Commerce).

These are historically our highest-value inbound travel markets. Florida was the top destination for international visitors in March (Department of Commerce).

The Economic Cost​

• Every 1% drop in international visitor spending = $1.8 billion lost in export revenue annually. If this 14% decline were to hold through 2025, the U.S. stands to lose $21 billion in travel-related exports.

But Expedia, a proxy for overall travel into the US, reported a decline of only 7% from "overseas" during the entirety of Q1. So, if the average decline for Jan, Feb, and Mar was 7%...but Mar alone was 14%, the decline ACCELERATED.

Will the decline continue to accelerate? We shall see.

 

[davidvel]

ive seen parents have more adult arguments at tball games...

enough.

Gotta go to "competitive" youth soccer. Now these parents (who think all their kids will get a college scholarship and play in the Premier league) are passionate. Especially those from countries where it is the #1 sport.

 

[1Kflyerguy]

I am not going to argue over the charts or even the possible cause of any slowdown. I do keep reading or seeing reports of different airlines cutting flights to reduce capacity, and hotel chains lowering their revenue estimates for the year due to lower demand.

 

[dougp26364]

Flying United today thru Denver. Almost all of the announcements were “We have a full flight today”. It is a Friday and I’m not accounting for any reductions in airline seat capacity, so the announcements might be meaningless as to a slow down in travel.
Missing are the “We’re overbooked and looking for people with flexible travel plans”. I really haven’t heard that announcement all that often for the last several years, so again not to much of a good indicator.

 

[WorldT]

Flying United today thru Denver. Almost all of the announcements were “We have a full flight today”. It is a Friday and I’m not accounting for any reductions in airline seat capacity, so the announcements might be meaningless as to a slow down in travel.
Missing are the “We’re overbooked and looking for people with flexible travel plans”. I really haven’t heard that announcement all that often for the last several years, so again not to much of a good indicator.

Okay.

 

[WorldT]

Of course, TSA cannot measure travelers coming into the U.S. Maybe you are confused (obvs.) and mean CBP? If so, let's look at stats from CBP showing travelers coming into the U.S. Oh, they are down since February, lower than both 2024 and 2023. Miracles!

View attachment 110389

This is where the unlabeled diagram came from. The CBP website. Start reading from the top before going down to the diagram.

Traveler and Conveyance Statistics

Securing America's Borders

www.cbp.gov

 

[chunkygal]

Flights are full when I have traveled, but higher priced and even moderate restaurants (except one night in Vegas), largely empty. Especially locally and I live in a tourist area. I am pretty sure Disney is reporting low crowds, but cruises seem booked. Just what it seems like.

 

[davidvel]

This is where the unlabeled diagram came from. The CBP website. Start reading from the top before going down to the diagram.

Traveler and Conveyance Statistics

Securing America's Borders

www.cbp.gov

What "unlabeled diagram" are you referring to?

 

[Eric B]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/travel/us-summer-travel-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.H08.B-mN.SWxMle3KCS9L&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Here's a guy I've talked to a few times over the years. He tends to bury the lead in his writing, but he is good with and respects DATA. He has Speculations, Opinions, Anecdotes & Preferences, but he doesn't let them fog his view of the actual DATA. I just noticed this note of his from 11 days ago.

TSA: Airline Travel Unchanged YoY

Anecdotally, I've heard that airlines ticket prices are falling . That suggests less travel. Also, the Real ID restrictions go in place tom...

www.calculatedriskblog.com

He usually does a better job with his charts. In this, he has strangely chosen to make the scales so the (too) thick lines keep criss-crossing & obscuring each other. Come on man. He also has this hysteresis in his head about having to compare everything to 2019 (pre-lockdowns) so that is why he has too many yrs of data there.

And the punch lines:
the Y/Y change in 14 DMA keeps rising. The 14 DMA smooths out various volatilities, so it doesn't change quickly (other than during lockdowns)
Thurs, 5/15, was the #1 strongest day of 2025 for the TSA headcount

obtw, I know nobody here can be bothered to get the actual DoT data (more than 1 data series there), but that is a similar story.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

THis is hilarious.
After Thurs, 5/15, was the #1 busiest day of 2025 for the TSA headcount ...
Fri, 5/16, became the #2 busiest day of 2025 for the TSA headcount ... and then ...
Sun, 5/18, became the new #1 busiest day of 2025 for the TSA headcount ...

So, through yesterday, 3 of the last 4 days were the 3 busiest days of 2025 for TSA headcount at US airports. It is only a matter of WHEN, not if, TSA has to lay people off due to lack of heads to count.
And now we return you to a full schedule of S.O.A.P.
Speculation.
Opinions.
Anecdotes.
Preferences.

 

[davidvel]

THis is hilarious.
After Thurs, 5/15, was the #1 busiest day of 2025 for the TSA headcount ...
Fri, 5/16, became the #2 busiest day of 2025 for the TSA headcount ... and then ...
Sun, 5/18, became the new #1 busiest day of 2025 for the TSA headcount ...

So, through yesterday, 3 of the last 4 days were the 3 busiest days of 2025 for TSA headcount at US airports. It is only a matter of WHEN, not if, TSA has to lay people off due to lack of heads to count.
And now we return you to a full schedule of S.O.A.P.
Speculation.
Opinions.
Anecdotes.
Preferences.

Comments you are responding to are about International travel to the US, despite the broader context of the thread:

Yet, you think TSA and its stats keep track of inbound travel to the US:

 

[dioxide45]

This thread is pretty much unreadable at this point. Time to unfollow it.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Comments you are responding to are about International travel to the US, despite the broader context of the thread:

So, in addition to being lazy and absolutely awful with #s, you don't understand the meaning of "broader" vs "narrower". Congrats. You're a Triple-Threat of blankness.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

This thread is pretty much unreadable at this point

Yes. I know. The Members here want to read only S.O.A.P.
Speculation.
Opinions.
Anecdotes.
Preferences.

What fun are facts?

 

[DeniseM]

Thread closed due to bickering - get a life!