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BTW, IME renting - the vast majority of rentals are not booked within the 60 day discount window - they are booked months in advance. The entire concept that somehow most VIP owners are booking rentals within the discount window is, again, the exception and not the rule. Most renters plan farther in advance IME.
There appears to be a false narrative repeatedly parroted on TUG that somehow the vast majority of rentals occur within the discount window. This is not accurate based upon what I know. It is the exception not the rule. I have no idea why this false narrative is so popular on TUG. It makes me wonder aloud what the motives really are for anyone that tends to push this narrative repeatedly.
The reality is that most people cannot vacation at the last minute on short notice - they have to plan in advance - especially when coordinating time off and availability with other friends and family members.
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My own account sees way more discounted and upgraded reservations. As far as short notice is concerned, many families can't deal with it and they will pay full price. But, there are enough people out there who can spot a bargain and are able to use it. That's not working very well this year, by the way!
I do both -- book via ARP at the first possible moment and book starting at Day 60. I end up canceling many of the reservations made 10-14 months before check-in either at Day 15 or so I can use the points for something I find while bottom feeding.
I did a quick look at my sheet for 2020, which does not show the dozens of reservations that I've canceled. I have forty-three Wyndham reservations with a check-in date of November 14 or earlier (i.e., they were used or are in use). Seven were not discounted or upgraded. Three were 2BR units at Royal Vista, booked at full price outside the 60 day window and because there was nothing to upgrade from or upgrade to when Day 60 came around. Two were Bike Week at Ocean Walk. Two were Mardi Gras at La Belle Maison. Same deal with those.
Obviously, 2020 is not a typical year. I canceled all the reservations I had at Bonnet Creek for the weeks before and after Easter and a bunch in May and June. Some would have been rented as undiscounted reservations with no upgrade.
For the rest of 2020, I have six reservations during the last three weeks in December, all of which were both discounted and upgraded. One is rented and we'll use one. If I don't find any more reservations and end up canceling the other four I have now, I'll roll 855,000 points into 2021.