Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.

["Roger"]

I guess we are at odds with each other. I see nothing inappropriate with the graphs that were resented. The point of the graphs was to show how the rate of reported cases was increasing in the listed states. The article openly admits that the scales are different "to make the charts readable." They could have put the graphs all on the same scales, it would have revealed exactly the same thing, but most the charts would have been unreadable because one would need a magnifying glass to see some of them.

I also found this sentence interesting. "Positivity rates can be nefariously impacted if a government chooses where to test with PR implications in mind." (Empahsis added.) I am not aware of a government choosing where to test. At least in my state, you can get tested anywhere across the state and the government is not doing any directing.

 

[Conan]

This is a textbook example of how to distort facts - while the data source at least acknowledges they have distorted, er adjusted, the scales, that simply is not necessary.
Present the data - on the same scale throughout - and let the data speak on its own.

Since the focus is on the increase in cases, the angle (slope) of the curve is more pertinent than the absolute numbers.

A better set of graphs would show # of cases per 100,000 of population, and with that a common Y-axis would be appropriate. Turns out the current average daily new cases in the leading states are mostly 12 to 20 per day per 100,000 (except Arizona at 38 per 100,000).

Oklahoma shows the biggest jump from two weeks prior; let's not speculate on how that happened.
If "protestors" were a leading source of infection I would expect a stronger showing from the states that had the biggest demonstrations.

Tracking the coronavirus around the U.S.: See how your state is doing

View NPR's maps and graphics to see where COVID-19 is hitting hardest in the U.S., which state outbreaks are under control and where cases are still spreading.

www.npr.org

NEW DAILY CASES VS. 2 WEEKS AGO

STATE	1-WEEK	PER 100K	2-WEEK CHANGE
Oklahoma	372 new cases/day	9 per 100K	284%​
Florida	3,756 new cases/day	17 per 100K	205%​
Arizona	2,750 new cases/day	38 per 100K	157%​
Texas	4,348 new cases/day	15 per 100K	156%​
Idaho	110 new cases/day	6 per 100K	134%​
South Carolina	1,049 new cases/day	20 per 100K	119%​
Kansas	184 new cases/day	6 per 100K	96%​
Oregon	175 new cases/day	4 per 100K	86%​
Georgia	1,336 new cases/day	13 per 100K	84%​
Tennessee	732 new cases/day	11 per 100K	66%​
Washington	441 new cases/day	6 per 100K	65%​
Arkansas	538 new cases/day	18 per 100K	64%​
California	4,732 new cases/day	12 per 100K	63%​
Ohio	620 new cases/day	5 per 100K	56%​
Alabama	679 new cases/day	14 per 100K	52%​
Utah	491 new cases/day	15 per 100K	45%​
North Carolina	1,370 new cases/day	13 per 100K	33%​
Louisiana	549 new cases/day	12 per 100K	33%​
Mississippi	398 new cases/day	13 per 100K	29%​

 

[bluehende]

In many cities the contact tracers were not allowed to ask those who tested positive if they had attended the protests. We will never know if the increase is due to the protests or to opening up the economy.

While there is no way cases do not go up from the protests would not the biggest protest areas go up. NY,DC, and MN all have declining cases. High mask usage and being outside may keep these increased infections in the noise. Only time will tell, but in those three areas they should have started showing up last week with next week being the peak.

 

[AJCts411]

Curious. About masks. (Yes I will wear one where mandated. ) But if everyone wears a mask but for one or two, then how are you the mask wearer endanger if masks are the answer, effective?

 

[Conan]

if everyone wears a mask but for one or two, then how are you the mask wearer endanger if masks are the answer, effective?

What you're describing is a kind of herd immunity. If masks were 100% effective one or two (or millions for that matter) could go maskless and still be safe. Unfortunately nobody is saying masks are 100% effective--ask the families of the dead healthcare workers.

If masks reduce a person's risk of catching the virus from [purely hypothetical] 1 in 100 with no mask to 1 in 1,000 with a mask, wouldn't you want to wear a mask?

 

[jme]

Curious. About masks. (Yes I will wear one where mandated. ) But if everyone wears a mask but for one or two, then how are you the mask wearer endanger if masks are the answer, effective?

There have been scientific explanations ad infinitum, both online and here on TUG.
Charts, videos of aerosol/droplet spread, interviews, journal articles, CDC reports, American Medical Assoc reports,
TV ads, and much much more.

What planet are you from?

And the proof is that it's spreading exponentially upon this "Great ReOpening" strictly because
people are NOT taking it seriously. Like you, not wearing a protective mask except where it's mandated (and many not even then).
I truly hope you will just be lucky, because that'll be the only reason.

Addendum:
(I've never received an "Angry" before, but for the reasons I suppose I did, I still feel I must state the truth......so I'll wear that Angry proudly.
I have read and contemplated all of your posts on the pandemic and your disdain for wearing protective masks for nothing other than
political and personal reasons, and I'll take a disagreement from you anytime. Thank you for the opportunity to say more.
All I can say is I am angry too....probably more than you are.......angry at those who are causing more problems by exacerbating the spread
of this deadly disease when they could be more compliant. They are wantonly flaunting what science has taught us.
Statistics bear it out that this "ReOpening" has resulted in an explosion of new cases (reinforcing my original premise, by the way),
which will again cause undue catastrophic damage to the economy and to families who will lose loved ones.
For everyone not to do their part in the mitigation of this pandemic is ludicrous, and frankly, selfish. It doesn't take much effort.
Look at what happened during Spring Break in Florida by virtue of "no masks", and what is happening now.....they too "left home without it".

Not to mention what it's doing to the thousands of front-line physicians and support professionals...they are actually dying while serving others.
I don't want anything to happen to my family, to your family, or to all of our professions---mine has already been affected catastrophically.
Sorry, but at some point you must acknowledge that the "mask-wearing" is more of an issue than you gave it credit for six weeks ago.
Keep your eyes open for what I believe is happening.

My point in that post was that if one walks thru a crazy-busy intersection at rush hour and doesn't get hit, he's lucky.
Likewise, if he habitually doesn't wear a mask except in mandatory situations and doesn't get infected with, or spread, coronavirus,
again he's nothing but lucky. I was hoping he would be lucky.)

 

[bbodb1]

I guess we are at odds with each other. I see nothing inappropriate with the graphs that were resented. The point of the graphs was to show how the rate of reported cases was increasing in the listed states. The article openly admits that the scales are different "to make the charts readable." They could have put the graphs all on the same scales, it would have revealed exactly the same thing, but most the charts would have been unreadable because one would need a magnifying glass to see some of them.

I do not want to suggest we are at odds, Roger but my background experience in computer science and sociology set off alarms when seeing how the data was presented.
Too many people will gloss over the supporting text in and around an article (thus missing the disclaimer about making the data more readable).
With tools like Abode Reader, it is easy enough to zoom in/out on images if one needs a better view. I know you did not write this article Roger, but it illustrates a lack of care in presenting data - that is something we need to avoid.

I also found this sentence interesting. "Positivity rates can be nefariously impacted if a government chooses where to test with PR implications in mind." (Empahsis added.) I am not aware of a government choosing where to test. At least in my state, you can get tested anywhere across the state and the government is not doing any directing.

In Arkansas, state government has been selecting what they call surge testing areas. These are areas where a virus breakout is in progress and it stands to reason the positivity rate of a state's testing will increase if a state chooses to test in a hotter area (virus wise). To illustrate this point, I am attaching a screen shot of the seven day rolling positivity rate in Arkansas (see below)...

On the three highest dates shown below, a lot of testing was done at correctional centers where there was an outbreak in progress. When you also consider how few other tests were given throughout the state, it did not take much to significantly effect the positivity rate on those days.

The problem then (and still is) we are not testing enough. Until state governments can rapidly and repeatedly test a significant portion of their population, these numbers can be impacted (in both directions) by where a government chooses to test. I agree with your point that at present, most people can get tested if they want to - I am not suggesting anyone is being turned away from testing - but given the very small numbers of tests being done these days, where a government chooses to make testing even more available can markedly impact the results.

Since the focus is on the increase in cases, the angle (slope) of the curve is more pertinent than the absolute numbers.

A better set of graphs would show # of cases per 100,000 of population, and with that a common Y-axis would be appropriate. Turns out the current average daily new cases in the leading states are mostly 12 to 20 per day per 100,000 (except Arizona at 38 per 100,000).

Oklahoma shows the biggest jump from two weeks prior; let's not speculate on how that happened.
If "protesters" were a leading source of infection I would expect a stronger showing from the states that had the biggest demonstrations.

@Conan - yes, precisely.

 

[bbodb1]

Maybe his point on community spread from prisons just registered more with me, but I thought that was one of the main points.

Just to put a finishing touch on this point, I agree with a lot of what John Oliver said in regard to the danger that not just prisons but all congregate facilities pose during this COVID-19 crisis to their surrounding community (at first) and beyond there as time goes by.

 

[klpca]

The mother of my friend's son-in-law is dying of covid as we speak. She was admitted to the hospital for a heart issue and was (I suppose) routinely tested. She tested positive and after just a few days is heading towards multiple organ failure. On Tuesday they said that she probably had three days to live. I haven't asked since since they are under a terrible amount of family stress. She is in her early 70's. This is in the Palm Springs area. This is the first time that the connection has been close to us. I am shocked at the speed that it is devastating her body.

PSA: wear your mask please. It isn't a big sacrifice. Someone's life could depend on it. Why are we arguing about this? Remember the saying, "if everyone does a little then no one has to do a lot". Wearing a mask is a "little" thing. Be a helper.

 

[Yellowfin]

While there is no way cases do not go up from the protests would not the biggest protest areas go up. NY,DC, and MN all have declining cases. High mask usage and being outside may keep these increased infections in the noise. Only time will tell, but in those three areas they should have started showing up last week with next week being the peak.

In NYC they almost had no way to go but down. But how about Los Angeles, Seattle etc that recorded a large increases in new cases and had significant protests? We also do not know what protests practice more social distancing. Judging by pictures I have seen they were a significant factor. But how big we will never know.

 

[bluehende]

In NYC they almost had no way to go but down. But how about Los Angeles, Seattle etc that recorded a large increases in new cases and had significant protests? We also do not know what protests practice more social distancing. Judging by pictures I have seen they were a significant factor. But how big we will never know.

Yet NY is in fact going down. With other big states numbers the numbers can indeed go up......way up.

Because they are opening up sooner. We all saw the pictures from SoCal. As for Washington there has not been that big of an increase....and lo and behold they actually have increased their testing over the last few weeks. Below is a link to the data if you like. How can you explain the others again? A nice link to real data would be nice.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard

 

[Yellowfin]

Yet NY is in fact going down. With other big states numbers the numbers can indeed go up......way up.

Because they are opening up sooner. We all saw the pictures from SoCal. As for Washington there has not been that big of an increase....and lo and behold they actually have increased their testing over the last few weeks. Below is a link to the data if you like. How can you explain the others again? A nice link to real data would be nice.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard

one thing I learned about this virus, a lot of things are not predictable or easy to explain, like trying to understand every dot in a fractal pattern. Some areas with seemingly identical features experienced very different growth

 

[WinniWoman]

Here’s another post I read by a columnist I follow:


“Los Angeles County is an epicenter of new #coronavirus cases (positive tests), causing Disneyland to delay its reopening. Which is weird, because LA County had one of strictest lockdowns in the country.

I was there last week when it was just lifted. Almost no one was out, and everyone was wearing masks. I was at LAX twice, and it was all but dead both days. Took less than 10 minutes to get through TSA. Took only 20 minutes or so to commute from LAX to Burbank and back the other way a couple of days later, which is typically unheard of. Even got to make an impromptu stop at the Rose Bowl there was so little traffic. My Uber driver told me his company's stats report they're at 20% their normal business in the county. Restaurants had no wait every day I was there.

So then why the surge? If lockdowns work and save us all, how do you explain Los Angeles County?“

 

[WinniWoman]

I am also reading from people in Arizona and California that they are bringing in people with COVID from Mexico to border hospitals and they are double counting.

So any patient that’s in the hospital gets tested every day they are admitted, as well as anyone with a positive test outside the hospital gets retested and all of those are counted even if they are from the same person!

It’s all very interesting and for me the bottom line of all of this is we can analyze numbers and graphs all we want. We can politicize it all we want. We can blame other people all we want. We can state we are smarter and know more than everyone else all we want.

But none of us is in control of any of it except to care for ourselves and our families and being considerate of others when out in public. Distance if we can and wear a mask at least in buildings. Wash our hands.

The virus will be here for awhile- maybe forever for all we know despite what they say about a vaccine or treatment- but hopefully not- and we have to deal with the rules and regulations imposed on us and the businesses unfortunately, whether we agree with them or not. Yes- it sucks and is screwing up our lives And our plans- some more than others.

Us more humble folks don’t know what to believe and from whom so we take it as it comes.

So I say live your best life TODAY and work around this mess as much as you can. We can’t change any of it and it’s not worth arguing over it either. All we have is NOW. Carpe Diem! Don’t live in Fear! And get out when you can as much as possible!

 

[Luanne]

I am also reading from people in Arizona and California that they are bringing in people with COVID from Mexico to border hospitals and they are double counting.

Can you provide information on this? I am doing some checking and found an article saying where U.S. citizens who live in Mexico were being airlifted in.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/us/coronavirus-border-mexico-california-el-centro.html

 

[klpca]

Here’s another post I read by a columnist I follow:


“Los Angeles County is an epicenter of new #coronavirus cases (positive tests), causing Disneyland to delay its reopening. Which is weird, because LA County had one of strictest lockdowns in the country.

I was there last week when it was just lifted. Almost no one was out, and everyone was wearing masks. I was at LAX twice, and it was all but dead both days. Took less than 10 minutes to get through TSA. Took only 20 minutes or so to commute from LAX to Burbank and back the other way a couple of days later, which is typically unheard of. Even got to make an impromptu stop at the Rose Bowl there was so little traffic. My Uber driver told me his company's stats report they're at 20% their normal business in the county. Restaurants had no wait every day I was there.

So then why the surge? If lockdowns work and save us all, how do you explain Los Angeles County?“

I'll ask my family who lives in Redondo Beach. One is an AA flight attendant as well and give you a boots on the ground report. In San Diego I'm starting to see bumper to bumper traffic on the freeway again and thing seem to be busier than even a few weeks ago. I believe that while our case count is increasing our rate of infection is holding steady around 5%, so for the most part our increase is explained by testing and not by increased spreading. Most people here seem to be trying.

Another thing that I was thinking about was how hospitals no longer allow families into see patients. I know that my Auntie who died in March died alone. Screw covid.

 

[WinniWoman]

Can you provide information on this? I am doing some checking and found an article saying where U.S. citizens who live in Mexico were being airlifted in.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/us/coronavirus-border-mexico-california-el-centro.html

I can’t. Just people talking about it.

 

[WinniWoman]

Another claim: The CDC now reportedly admits - and they probably knew long before today -- 10 times more people have been infected with COVID than what has been reported (and that doesn't even count children). Which means the virus is far less lethal.

 

[Luanne]

I can’t. Just people talking about it.

These days I don't tend to trust "just people talking about it" as proof of anything. Sure, they might be some cases where this is happening, but putting a blanket statement out there with nothing to back it up just causes someone to believe it and carry on the tale. Kind of like the game of "telephone" we used to play when we were younger.

 

[WinniWoman]

These days I don't tend to trust "just people talking about it" as proof of anything. Sure, they might be some cases where this is happening, but putting a blanket statement out there with nothing to back it up just causes someone to believe it and carry on the tale. Kind of like the game of "telephone" we used to play when we were younger.

I understand. I tend to like to hear the voices of common folk on the ground and so I give them some credence.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

Here’s another post I read by a columnist I follow:


“Los Angeles County is an epicenter of new #coronavirus cases (positive tests), causing Disneyland to delay its reopening. Which is weird, because LA County had one of strictest lockdowns in the country.

I was there last week when it was just lifted. Almost no one was out, and everyone was wearing masks. I was at LAX twice, and it was all but dead both days. Took less than 10 minutes to get through TSA. Took only 20 minutes or so to commute from LAX to Burbank and back the other way a couple of days later, which is typically unheard of. Even got to make an impromptu stop at the Rose Bowl there was so little traffic. My Uber driver told me his company's stats report they're at 20% their normal business in the county. Restaurants had no wait every day I was there.

So then why the surge? If lockdowns work and save us all, how do you explain Los Angeles County?“

The governor of California said that many of the new cases are due to family and extended family gatherings in homes. Graduation and birthday parties etc. I will bet that because people are "staying home" to have a party i.e. they are doing as asked, and it's family/extended family in home so attendees don't wear masks. He cited a situation where a 20 YO attended a family graduation party and infected 20 attendees.

 

[pedro47]

CBS Evening. NEWS now is reporting 23 millions infected by the virus.

 

[Luanne]

I understand. I tend to like to hear the voices of common folk on the ground and so I give them some credence.

So, you are in New Hampshire and you are hearing the voice of common folk on the ground from California and Arizona? Are these people you know who are telling you this, or are you reading it somewhere? Just curious. I mean I know what people I know tell me but I wouldn't put it out there to try and prove much of anything.

 

[WinniWoman]

So, you are in New Hampshire and you are hearing the voice of common folk on the ground from California and Arizona? Are these people you know who are telling you this, or are you reading it somewhere? Just curious. I mean I know what people I know tell me but I wouldn't put it out there to try and prove much of anything.

I’m not trying to prove anything. I am just stating things I hear about. Your article is the proof you seek of what I was hearing.

 

[Luanne]

I’m not trying to prove anything. I am just stating things I hear about. Your article is the proof you seek of what I was hearing.

I guess what I assumed (and I should know better than to assume) was that Mexican citizens with COVID 19 were being brought in from Mexico to California and Arizona hospitals. Still not sure how they were being double counted. The article I found said that U.S. citizens and green card holders were being airlifted into the U.S. I didn't see anything about double counting in that article. It did state that infection rates and cases went up in the areas where these people were brought.