Below are the 5 night Travel Package redemption charts. The first, is the pre-8/18/18 chart. Below that is the post-8/18/18 chart. I did a comparison of just the Category 6 TPs using the maximum Group 1 FF redemption option (120k/132k United) before and (100k/110k United) now. How does this reflect against the current Marriott offer to refund 30k MRPs for requesting a 1 category downgrade of any Category 6, Category 8, or Tier 1-3 package? See below.
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Is the 30k MRP refund a 'good' deal? It really depends on how Marriott is going to treat pre-8/18/18 TPs.
The pre-8/18/18 Category 6 cost 250k. After 8/18/18, it now maps to the Category 1-4 TP at a cost of 270k. So, if I paid 250k for a TP that now costs 270k, I've already 'saved' 20k MRPs in redemption costs from my account. Offering me another 30k MRPs (to bring me to a total 'savings' of 50k) seems counter-intuitive for Marriott - unless they are not really going to enforce mapping down pre-8/18/18 Category 6 TPs to be worth only Category 1-4 redemptions now.
If a pre-Category 6 is still actually redeemable for a post-Category 6 (or even a post-Category 5), then offering me 30k MRPs to downgrade a package actually saves Marriott money (based on the costs of points redemptions in rooms occupied versus cash rentals).
So, why the 30k MRP refund offer by Marriott? I have no idea, except that there has to be a 'benefit' to Marriott by offering it (over and above any benefit being extended to us the customer) ... IMHO.