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Will bank crisis ensnare huge European zombie banks?

Carolinian

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Credit Suisse, one of Europe's largest banks, has been in difficulty for some months, as a result of some reckless behavior, but with the current banking crisis, its stock has dropped precipitiously from its already low level and trading has been halted. A bank failure of the size of Credit Suisse would have worldwide financial impact. The Saudis have a lot of money in this bank but say they are not going to put any more in.


Another bank that has been a zombie bank for years, whose stock has been in the toilet is Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank. When it first got on the ropes, the German government said they would not bail it out, and realistically probably does not have the money to do so if they wanted to anyway. So far, there does not seem to be any further run on Deutsche Bank, but its failure would cause even more international problems than a failure of Credit Suisse because of the extent to which Deutsche Bank dominates the Credit Default Swap market, which would be thrown into absolute chaos if it failed. We need to keep our fingers crossed on this one, even more so than Credit Suisse.

One remembers that the failure of the Austrian bank Credit Instalt was what set off the Great Depression. Each of these two European banks is far more significant.

(Some of us do have differing economic philosophies, but lets keep that OUT of the discussion, as it may be deemed political. Regardless of economic philosophy, these are two banks that need to be watched closely as what hapens with them could easily impact all of us in a big way)
 

easyrider

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Remembering when we were kids we would bet double or nothing until things evened out or we won. It's called the Martindale system. A better analogy of this investing system is flipping a coin where eventually you win as long as you have money to play. The problem occurs when the odds are long and there is less money in the system like there is now.

Bill
 

Carolinian

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Switzerland's National Bank has given Credit Suisse a 50 billion franc lifeline ( a bit more than 50 billion dollars) loan to prop it up and tried to encourage merger talks with its larger and much more solid rival UBS, but neither bank was interested. While this helps to calm the situation, at the same time forces in the Swiss government have come out in opposition to government guarantees of Credit Suisse's finances.

 

Carolinian

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However, it's important to note that the banking sector is always susceptible to risks, including financial crises. The European Central Bank (ECB) and other regulatory bodies have taken measures to strengthen the European banking sector and increase its resilience to potential crises. These measures include stress testing, improved risk management practices, and enhanced regulatory oversight.

That being said, there are always potential risks and vulnerabilities in the banking sector, and it's important for individual banks and regulatory bodies to remain vigilant and take appropriate action to address any issues that arise. In the event of a crisis, it's also important for banks and regulators to work together to minimize the impact on the wider financial system and economy.
 

Carolinian

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Well, they pulled it off. The much more solid Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) has bought Credit Suisse for pennies on the dollar. That has dinged the stock of UBS somewhat, but it helps calm the panic. What may hurt other banks, though is that the bondholders of Credit Suisse were wiped out entirely and the shareholders lost most of what they had. If another bank needs to build capital, this would not be encouraging to anyone to invest in buying bank bonds or stock generally.
 

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Depending on the bank, buying the dip in a bank stock's may be a great buying opportunity. The acquiring bank is picking up assets on the cheap.
 

Carolinian

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Uh-oh. Deutsche Bank now seems to be in play, and the takeover of Credit Suisse is still dragging down UBS.


This is Germany's largest bank, and it dominates the Credit Default Swap market internationally.
 
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