I don't know what their long term agenda is, so I am just speculating. They already got the inflated sales prices so how do they maximize revenues now? They can try to milk owners as much as possible with their cut from MFs, SVN fees, rentals, etc but I am not sure if that is sustainable in the long run.
Think about what are the options when MFs at WKORV reach $4000 or $5000? At this rate this can happen in about 5-6 years... At that level of MFs thousands of owners wll seek to dump their properties and resale values will literally be zero because nobody will want to buy them. So either Starwood buys the hotel back or owners vote to close down the property, if the latter is even an option. If they buy a week at $1000 (probably very generous, because at that level of MFs owners will be willing to give their weeks away, or even pay someone to take them) that's $50,000 per 2BR villa in a super prime location. Much cheaper than building from scratch... (in fact, buying just the furniture and appliances inside the villa would probably exceed that value). Even with the risks of economy/competition this has got to be a very attractive proposition for Starwood.
As an illustration think of their return on investment in an ultra conservative scenario - they rent a 2BR villa for $300 a night ($100 for the studio and $200 for a 1BR suite), have only 70% occupancy rates at those ridiculously low rates, and their costs to operate the villa are 90% of revenues... So their operating income per villa per year would be $300 * 365 days * 0.7 occupancy * 0.1 operating margin = $7665 per year. On a $50,000 investment that's a pretax return on equity of over 15% a year. And I think we can all agree this is a very conservative scenario...
Now in more realistic, but still quite conservative scenario, they rent a villa at $500/night (say $200 for a studio and $300 for a 1BR suite), have 80% occupancy and let's just assume their costs are still 90% of sales. Now their operating income per villa per year would be $500 * 365 days * 0.8 occupancy * 0.1 operating margin = $14,600 per year. On a $50,000 investment that's a pretax return on equity of over 29% a year! This doubles to a 60% pretax annual return if the costs are 80% of revenues and they have a 20% operating margin.
When you think of it that way you see that despite the risks, buying the hotel back fr a symbolic price would be a great way to create value for Starwood shareholders (not the SVN owners). This is not so outlandish as it may seem at a first glance at the idea...
Danny,
I'm sure your math is accurate, but I think you may be overlooking a couple of important factors:
-- It's illegal in all 50 states for maintenance fees to exceed operating costs (obviously, reserves are permitted -- but I'm talking about the "pure" costs to run the resort on a day-to-day basis).
-- Yes, we all suspect that Starwood "pads the expenses" to increase their percentage-based management fee. But, I think they're smart enough to stay below the radar. I'm not suggesting that the padding may not be significant, but I don't think it would change the economics drastically if they suddenly found it unwise to pad their own (rather than our) expenses.
-- If Starwood would decide to turn WKORV back into a hotel (which would be virtually impossible due to need for owner votes as specified in the deed), they would have to substantially increase services, and corresponding expenses (daily housekepping is just one example). to command rental prices to compete with other luxury resorts in the area. (Althernatively, they'd be comparable to a Residence Inn.)
-- Just as an example, for an uncoming trip, we're staying in a Club room at the Hyatt in Maui. We have personal club concierge services, a guaranteed ocean view, killer pools, daily maid and turn-down service, a sitting room, breakfast every morning in the club suite, drinks and appetizers every evening in the club suite, 24-hour room service, ~7 restaurants/3 lounges, admission to the oceanfront athletic club, onsite full spa services, a coffee maker, refrigerator, microwave, mini-bar, robes, a fax machine ... you get the picture ... we'll probably even have trash can liners.

(Disclaimer: we wish we had a washer and dryer, but we'll just have to let the concierge take care of that little incovenience). Our rental rate (discounted, due to the economy, I'm sure) is approximately $1000 more than the equivalent maintenance fee for a one-BR at WKORV. Based on the quotes I've seen in the maintenance fee thread, it would cost WKORV at least $1000 more/week just to offer daily housekeeping service, let alone some of the other features found at full service hotes. Do you really think that Starwood could offer all these things without substanitally increasing their already out-of-control expense lines?
We may have to agree to disagree, but Starwood (and Marriott and Hyatt and Hilton and Disney, etc.) knew exactly what they were doing when the got into the timeshare business. They sell property at extremely inflated prices, pass the vast majority of the risk to the owners, and then sit back and collect annuitized managements fees. It was a win-win, until the credit freeze and subsequent recession left them holding the bag on a mountain of unsold property. Now they're forced to look for other ways to increase revenue -- and that should be scaring each and every owner. But, turning it back into a hotel, even if it were possible and the rooms were obtained for $0, would not guarantee profitability. WKORV has one advantage that the Hyatt in Maui doesn't have -- and it's a big one -- WKORV has as close to guaranteed 100% occupancy as is humanly possible (and I mean occupancy in the revenue sense of the work, not the physical presence sense of the word).