I looked for the thread because I remember reading it too and it was and still is true for us. Here is the thread. Have a good look at post #53 by Idodd too.There was a post a in the last month or two about the difficulty a floating week owner had reserving an OF two bedroom during the Feb-Mar timeframe, you might do a search. I'm not sure I believe that if you buy multiple weeks it is necessarily any easier.
I'm one of the other rare people who could also be happy in an OF unit for spring break every year. After a relocation that was 'never going to happen', our same week every year spring break moved and having a fixed week for the wrong week, at those prices, would beyond stink.
We loved the Napili tower most until we were in the two bedroom part of the three bedroom in Lahaina tower. There is almost no comparison. Every few years, there is something that seems better to us.
I also wouldn't buy. With some time and effort I think you could rent ocean front units each year, have flexibility if life throws a curve, and be ahead $$$.
We deposited our 2 BR fixed week 12 in II in January and put in a request for a 2 BR unit next March for week #13. We only have done request first in the past two years but that doesn't seem to work anymore except for the last week or so. It may have been because we requested late, to be fair.
The lady told me that I would be on the top of the list since I deposited early this time (14 months out) so should be filled when people start depositing a year in advance. It is now past this time period already but I have no exchange yet. When I call II, they keep telling me that they have no deposits. Is Marriott holding back desirable weeks until the last minute or are most Maui owners depositing their week for points so there are no deposits?
If I were the OP, I would rent or do what GregT mentioned in post #4. Buy a small amount of points and then get the rest you need from other owners or get fixed week #14 but be prepared for difficulties later if you want to exchange your week to a different one at your own resort as we are going through this now. Buying a floating 2 BR oceanfront unit may be a safer bet but they are not as nice and owners may still use points when they exchange to other Marriott resorts. We would consider that too.
PS. I see now from that thread (post #37) that week 26 to 31 have a much higher demand index than the weeks in February or March. Summer vacation weeks should be even harder yet to get. Scary!