U.S. Economy Set To Lose $12.5 Billion in International Traveler Spend in 2025

[dougp26364]

For reference, the 2024 numbers:
Domestic Leisure: $876 billion
Domestic business: $312 billion
International inbound: $181 billion

 

[easyrider]

So, are we going to get to sniff out deals again?

Oh yeah. Our airfare and car rental is lower for winter. I did redo the car rental but I'm waiting on the airfare. I can see the flights are only filled to about 30%.

Bill

 

[moonstone]

Time to go island shopping for real.

Nope, I like being on a mainland. We do escape FL and spend Jan. & Feb. in Belize, but 2 months there is plenty for me. We much prefer to drive a day & a half and be at our condo instead of messing with expensive flights that limit what we can take.

~Diane

 

[CanuckTravlr]

For reference, the 2024 numbers:
Domestic Leisure: $876 billion
Domestic business: $312 billion
International inbound: $181 billion

That seems to show that in 2024, international visitor spending in the USA accounted for about 13% of a $1.37 trillion tourism industry. So an overall drop of about 7% in international spending would represent about a 1% overall drop in total tourist spending.

Certainly not devastating, but as others have pointed out, some areas of the country will be impacted more than others. And those numbers are from May and the numbers continue to fall. Many first and second quarter trips may have been prepaid or had heavy cancellation policies. It will be interesting to see what plays out over the next year.

The CPA in me wonders how they gather those figures and what is included in them? If they include things like hotels, restaurants, and car rentals, how do they distinguish between domestic and international spending? Does it include things like shopping or groceries? Could it possibly understate the impact of international travellers?

For example, when I travel in the USA I have a US-issued debit and credit card on a US bank account that is linked to my Canadian banking. When I pay for something in the US with those cards or with cash, how do they tell whether it is domestic or international spending? I doubt anyone really knows the answer, but I would love to find out if anyone does.

As my university ECON 201 prof was fond of saying, "You can prove just about anything you want with statistics. It is important to understand the context, inclusions, and shortcomings of the data." And of course, there is the old maxim, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Finally, much of the tourism industry tends to be more labour-intensive than many other sectors. So any drop in tourism spending, whether domestic or international, could also have a larger impact on unemployment statistics.

As for myself, I have done more domestic travelling this year, have visited the Caribbean, will be doing a trip to the UK in late September, and switched my normal three-week timeshare stay in November in South Carolina to Cabo San Lucas.

 

[am1]

Nope, I like being on a mainland. We do escape FL and spend Jan. & Feb. in Belize, but 2 months there is plenty for me. We much prefer to drive a day & a half and be at our condo instead of messing with expensive flights that limit what we can take.

~Diane

I meant for Canada has a whole. As long as the island was willing and not forced on them or joked about.

 

[cubigbird]

Supply and Demand.....here's hoping this results in a nice decline in air fares and hotel costs.

 

[TUGBrian]

and more pool chairs being available!

 

[am1]

and more pool chairs being available!

Not likely based on who would still be traveling. Too many pool chair hogs.

 

[alwysonvac]

State of Hawaii's Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT)

Visitor Statistics

Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism

dbedt.hawaii.gov

Hawaii's Tourism Comparisons below for
- June 2025 vs June 2019
- June 2025 vs June 2024

 

[Retired Sharon]

Not all Canadians are avoiding the USA. We have our snowbird travel plans in place since we own a condo in FL we are not just going to abandon it. We are not alone judging by the comments on the many Snowbirds Facebook groups I belong to. When some folks question our decision to still head south, aside from our condo, I say if you can find me a place in Canada with temps every day, all winter, at or above 75F, I will consider staying in Canada. We do not do much shopping other than groceries while in Florida and we rarely eat out or go to any attractions so we wont be contributing too much to the local economy while we are there.

As for not purchasing American liquor -it isnt an option as it was pulled off the shelves in our liquor stores ages ago. Our grocery store shelves have lots of red maple leaf stickers by the price tags of all Canadian goods encouraging shoppers to buy Canadian.


~Diane

There are a lot of warm places outside of the U.S. and Canada.

 

[Brett]

But Sin City isn't dead !

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/las-vegas-visitors-tourism-drop-sin-city/

 

[WorldT]

But Sin City isn't dead !

View attachment 115338
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/las-vegas-visitors-tourism-drop-sin-city/

Of course. Gamblers gotta gamble. Number of visitors dropped but the amount lost in the casinos by the visitors that showed up increased.

"Nevada casinos kept $1.36 billion from gamblers in July, up 4% from a year earlier, according to data from state regulators".

 

[capjak]

"U.S. travel spending is forecast to increase from $1.3 trillion in 2024 to $1.35 trillion in 2025 (a 3.9% growth) according to the U.S. Travel Association.

However, international travel spending to the U.S. is expected to decline by $12.5 billion, to under $169 billion in 2025 from $181 billion in 2024"

 

[Talent312]

If I was a foreign traveller considering my destination,
I'd be reluctant to visit the US for a variety of reasons.
There are many other places where I'd simply feel
safer and more welcome. OTOH, there's the Mouse.

 

[TUGBrian]

Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to statistics, you should be perfectly comfortable.

 

[moonstone]

There are a lot of warm places outside of the U.S. and Canada.

Yes, there are. We have many friends and neighbours who winter, or have retired to, warm (or warmish) places all over the south (Caribbean islands, Central & South America & Mexico) and even Europe. But there are very few countries in those warm areas where English is the main & primarily spoken language. Spending a week or 2 in a non-English as their first language country is ok, but when you want to spend many months there and need to read signs, labels, ask for directions or even have a conversation with the locals, it is nice that it can be done in English.


~Diane

 

[ScoopKona]

Visitation in my area of Hawaii has increased a bit. I see the occasional Asian visitor (they could also be Asian-Americans who are more comfortable speaking Mandarin, Korean or Japanese -- I don't ask.) Our steady stream of Japanese visitors dried up during the pandemic and has never recovered.

I'm not seeing ANY Europeans or Canadians. Nor am I hearing any European accents. And Australian and New Zealand tourists have plummeted -- but not to zero.

Lacking what they consider better options (and perhaps not wanting to deal with customs and immigration after a foreign trip), I'm seeing almost nothing but US visitors.

Demand to move to Hawaii from the mainland has positively spiked. The Hawaii fora I participate in are seeing a glut of pipe-dreams with zero chance of success. People who want to leave where they are and move to Hawaii. And this is just the people who are rational enough to ask on a Hawaii forum. There are likely even more who are pulling stakes and flying here blind. "We're gonna git while the gittins good!"