TPU Arbitrage - Buy it or Avoid it?

[ronparise]

I dont understand the discussion of why one resort is awarded more points than another and which resort one likes better than another, and I dont care. The fact is that this is an inefficient market and arbitrage trading is possible. You either try to take advantage of it or not

But what we are talking about isnt really arbitrage. if I could buy in one market and immediately sell in another for a profit..thats arbitrage. The buy and hold to trade strategy is not arbitrage and even if it works to trade up (one week for two) you are limited to the number of weeks you can actually use, because RCI wont allow you to rent what you trade for.

The strategy I like more is this: buy a week with the current years usage still available and fees paid...and rent that week Then sell the contract for the same price I paid ...thats a strategy....

 

[vckempson]

IBut what we are talking about isnt really arbitrage. if I could buy in one market and immediately sell in another for a profit..thats arbitrage. The buy and hold to trade strategy is not arbitrage and even if it works to trade up (one week for two) you are limited to the number of weeks you can actually use, because RCI wont allow you to rent what you trade for.
....

I know. I thought it might be an attention grabbing title. I just hate the negative connotation of "overpointing".

However, if you think of the deposit points as one market and exchange points as another market, you can pocket the difference, even after using your week. That's a form of arbitrage. I see nothing wrong with taking advantage of the extra "juice" you get from the utilization bonus points which some seem to detest. Who's gonna look a gift horse in the mouth... not me.

 

[ronparise]

I know. I thought it might be an attention grabbing title. I just hate the negative connotation of "overpointing".

However, if you think of the deposit points as one market and exchange points as another market, you can pocket the difference, even after using your week. That's a form of arbitrage. I see nothing wrong with taking advantage of the extra "juice" you get from the utilization bonus points which some seem to detest. Who's gonna look a gift horse in the mouth... not me.

I agree completely, thats why I dont get all the discussion. I dont care why vacation Village at Parkway seems to be over pointed, only that it is; which is why I bought there. My intent is to use those points which cost me nothing and dump the contract back on the market. Im expecting to get two months at a resort near my home for nothing but the exchange fees (I need a place to stay between homes)

 

[Mel]

Well, Mel, I don't know which you do more of on these boards, defend RCI's rental to the public programs or defend RCI's overpointing of Orlando, which you own at.

I agree with you on one point. Exchange companies look for resorts that drive a chain of exchanges. However you have it backwards as to which deposits do that. When they take in a deposit of a high demand, low supply week, it gets taken immediately from the exchange pool by an ongoing search, and if they are doing a like for like exchange system, then they get in another similar week for a similar immediate exchange to an ongoing search, and the chain moves on rapidly. What disrupts the chain is when they take in a week from a resort where they already have a glut of inventory so that it languishes in the spacebank - a resort like VV@P.

While I agree that RCI seems to give extra points to some resorts - VV@P being one of them, but the fact that it is in Orlando does not translate to RCI overpoints Orlando. My Orlando week is only one of three weeks we own, and the TPU assigned seem to be appropriate compared to our other weeks. The lesser of our two 1BR beach units used to trade equally with our OLCC week, and low and behold, it is assigned an identical TPU value. When I compare the TPU we get for that week with the weeks we have gotten as trades in the past, it is right in line with what RCI seems to ask for those weeks - not necessarily what they offer those owners for deposits.

I think what we're seeing here is RCI making an attempt at still allowing what you called trading within bands. They offer 20 TPU for your deposit, and allow you to trade for anything 20 TPU or less, but once almost any week is in the system its TPU drops incrementally. Thus anything offered 23 for deposit shows up for exchange for 20 TPU, and you can still trade within your "band."

There are a small handful of resorts where that doesn't seem to happen, but there will always be resorts with issues like that. I wonder if in some cases that has something to do with the contract between the resort and RCI, and how they handle floating weeks. Just before the changes were introduced, I recall someone had information from one of the major chains with floating weeks, where all deposits would be given an average TPU value, to be fair to all who want to deposit a week. The issue than was that it would be impossible to deposit a floating week and get back any of the more valuable weeks - but maybe that's the point, in many people's eyes, the more valuable weeks shouldn't be deposited if there are owners who want to reserve them for their own use.

Now there's the question of why RCI would maintain a system where every deposit is worth less when it goes back out the door. RCI makes its money through transactions. Just consider the member who deposits his own week, and then exchanges back into it (not unlike lock-off owners who would deposit as 2 units, and then use one to exchange back into a full unit). He is given 20 credits for his deposit, and he spends 16 to trade back into his own unit. That leaves him with 4 "free" TPU credits. But they're not really free, because he paid an exchange fee, plus he has to pay an exchange fee to use those credits. Either he ends up paying 2 exchange fees to use his own week plus something from excess inventory. Even if RCI has a cost associated with aquiring inventory to cover the excess TPU, they're still making a decent profit.

 

[vckempson]

While I agree that RCI seems to give extra points to some resorts - VV@P being one of them, but the fact that it is in Orlando does not translate to RCI overpoints Orlando. My Orlando week is only one of three weeks we own, and the TPU assigned seem to be appropriate compared to our other weeks. The lesser of our two 1BR beach units used to trade equally with our OLCC week, and low and behold, it is assigned an identical TPU value. When I compare the TPU we get for that week with the weeks we have gotten as trades in the past, it is right in line with what RCI seems to ask for those weeks - not necessarily what they offer those owners for deposits.
.

Which OLCC week do you have and how many points do you get for it? How many more TPU's would it take to give you impression of overpointing at VV@P compared OLCC? Just Curious.

 

[Carolinian]

What you seem to be overlooking is that some of the most high demand / limited supply areas are the reverse. People cannot trade back into their own weeks. RCI wants more points lite for an exchange than then give for a deposit. This was pointed out on another board for Sanibel / Captiva by someone who has searched for SW Florida daily for years and prints out his results. It has also been noticed by quite a few on NYC. I would bet dollars to donuts it is going on for many of those rare areas that always get picked up by ongoing searches and we never even see online.

How one's individual luck runs on RCI valuations with their resorts will vary from person to person. Some win, some lose, and some tread water. In my case my summer beach week trades much like it did from all I can see, but my summer UK weeks, which are much harder to get a trade into and could trade for other rare weeks in the old system, now are arbitrarily given only 2/3 the points lite of my summer beach week. A few moderator on another timeshare site posted that she had her tiger trader, a US week, devalued to half the points lite of her run of the mill weeks in the new system.

In looking a how many of the most sought after yet limited availibility weeks are underpointed in Points Lite makes one thing apparent. This whole exercise appears to be RCI circling the wagons trying to create a defense to the next lawsuit over their rental programs. The underpointed weeks are likely the ones they are most frequently taking out themselves to rent to the general public, at those artificially low values, then replaced with the overpointed ones and they call it even. Arbitarily ''balancing'' their own rental diversions is a more logical explanation than anything that has been advanced relative to exchanges among members. That theory is further bolstered by the very defensive page RCI has put up on its website on the rentals, wholly built around points lite numbers. One only hopes that in the next lawsuit, the attorneys are smart enough to go for the jugular and do extensive discovery on how RCI concocts these screwy numbers.

While I agree that RCI seems to give extra points to some resorts - VV@P being one of them, but the fact that it is in Orlando does not translate to RCI overpoints Orlando. My Orlando week is only one of three weeks we own, and the TPU assigned seem to be appropriate compared to our other weeks. The lesser of our two 1BR beach units used to trade equally with our OLCC week, and low and behold, it is assigned an identical TPU value. When I compare the TPU we get for that week with the weeks we have gotten as trades in the past, it is right in line with what RCI seems to ask for those weeks - not necessarily what they offer those owners for deposits.

I think what we're seeing here is RCI making an attempt at still allowing what you called trading within bands. They offer 20 TPU for your deposit, and allow you to trade for anything 20 TPU or less, but once almost any week is in the system its TPU drops incrementally. Thus anything offered 23 for deposit shows up for exchange for 20 TPU, and you can still trade within your "band."

There are a small handful of resorts where that doesn't seem to happen, but there will always be resorts with issues like that. I wonder if in some cases that has something to do with the contract between the resort and RCI, and how they handle floating weeks. Just before the changes were introduced, I recall someone had information from one of the major chains with floating weeks, where all deposits would be given an average TPU value, to be fair to all who want to deposit a week. The issue than was that it would be impossible to deposit a floating week and get back any of the more valuable weeks - but maybe that's the point, in many people's eyes, the more valuable weeks shouldn't be deposited if there are owners who want to reserve them for their own use.

Now there's the question of why RCI would maintain a system where every deposit is worth less when it goes back out the door. RCI makes its money through transactions. Just consider the member who deposits his own week, and then exchanges back into it (not unlike lock-off owners who would deposit as 2 units, and then use one to exchange back into a full unit). He is given 20 credits for his deposit, and he spends 16 to trade back into his own unit. That leaves him with 4 "free" TPU credits. But they're not really free, because he paid an exchange fee, plus he has to pay an exchange fee to use those credits. Either he ends up paying 2 exchange fees to use his own week plus something from excess inventory. Even if RCI has a cost associated with aquiring inventory to cover the excess TPU, they're still making a decent profit.

 

[Carolinian]

I think you have hit the nail on the head.

The problem with exchanging these days is that it has lost the relative stability it once had so the only expectations one can really depend on are short term. That has been a new development, primarily originating from one major exchange company which has been all too often significantly moving the goalposts in one fell swoop after another. Members dread when their website goes down for extended maintenance because they have learned that detrimental ''enhancements'' may well be present when it comes back up. Those apprehensions do not seem to be present for any other exchange company.

I also prefer to buy on the fundamentals - resale value, rental value, and being somewhere I would like to go myself - rather than depending on exchanging. However since I like to travel different places, and that means exchanging, I am now doing business with exchange companies whose systems have exhibited more stability.

One prediction of a coming major change at RCI is that they will at some point merge their two points-based systems into one, and when they do there will be major changes that will certainly be detrimental to large groups of members of both, but at the same time some members of both will find they come out ahead. And we can expect the group that comes out ahead to be crowing at the top of their lungs and defending the changes on timeshare boards, and I think their attitude toward anyone who dares rattle the cage against the deficiencies in the system that gives them their windfall will also be highly predictable. I think it will take RCI at least two years, probably longer to do such a merger, but I suspect that at least the forward planning is likely already underway. There may be some steps in the interim to align the systems incrementally, with how it facilitates RCI's rental to the public program always first in their minds.

One thing about stability, though, is it is possible to go too far the other way and freeze values in place that should be moving with the market, because supply and demand do change. The sudden arbitrary swings when RCI either changes their formula or artibrarily adds or subtracts value from certain areas as has happened too many times in the last few years however is a big red flag that something is not kosher. If there is a large and abrupt change there should be a readily apparent reason, like the demand for New Orleans for the months after the hurricane. When there are abrupt changes with no apparent reason, then it is highly likely to be an artifical adjustment to some area or resorts benefit or detriment. Most genuine supply and demand changes in timeshare supply and demand, absent something like New Orleans and the hurricane, tend to happen over time.

I would not make a timeshare purchase to arbitrage trade ups with exchange companies. The rules change too often and great trades up are fleeting. I've made my share of huge trade ups and none of them ever lasted. If you want to play this game, just make sure you are ready to turn your portfolio over every 2-3 years as exchange rules change. There will always be opportunities, but it's something that you need to work at. There is no buy and hold strategy that will work long term for trading.

The only purchasing strategy I support is one where the maintenance fees for a property are likely to remain at roughly 50-75% of what you can expect to rent the unit. Then, you can use it, rent it, exchange it, or whatever and you are guaranteed to get a good value for your invested capital.

 

[DavidnJudy]

Utilization = Loyalty? / Level deposits?

I wonder when RCI says Utilization maybe they mean Loyalty. The reason I say this is look at the numbers

Points Deposit Calculator:

OLCC 2 Bed - July 4th week 38 TPU; XMAS 57 TPU
VV@P - Very close to OLCC
RCI affiliated only

Vistana 2 Bed - July 4th week 22 TPU; XMAS 23 TPU
Dual affiliated but mostly affiliated with II - But still tons of RCI deposits

Maybe RCI assigns a "Loyalty" number - like a Utilization number. And I bet this has to do with whether the resort is loyal to RCI AND gives it a bunch of deposits.

See RCI wants a resort to be dedicated to its system and giving it a lot of deposits. This way it gets more exchanges and more weeks to potentially rent.

What may not seem fair is that it pentalizes the individual owner. But I guess it figures the owners can change the resort and make it a mostly geared to be an 'RCI' resort. Only owners can do this. So you pay as owners (HOA board) if you decided you want the flexibility to dump exchanges into II, or somewhere else. I can see RCI's point and I can see Carolinian's point.

Personally if I bought in Orlando (which I wouldn't) I would like to buy Vistana (which I won't) because it's my favorite, BUT RCI doesn't value it, my guess is because it is not loyal, because I certainly see a bunch of deposits all the time in RCI. So volume is their but loyalty is not.

Even Orbit One (another place we like but its no Vistana) gets higher points than Vistana on deposit (53 for xmas for OO) - and I know the volume is not as big as Vistana. It must be the loyalty factor. Or maybe they give a higher percentage of their units to RCI.

The funny thing is - to trade into Vistana you need more points then Orbit One (and the same as VV@P and OLCC). I am looking at Easter week, and I need 22 for Vistana and 20 for Orbit One. Looks like Loyalty is not part of the trading equation, and well it kind of makes sense because that is all about supply and demand.

RCI knows Loyalty means NOTHING when a person is actually doing a Trade. Demand for a place and the Supply means everything when a person is looking for a Trade. So RCI HAS to point them so they are taken. If there are too many Orbit One's they have to point them low.

Loyalty means everything on the deposit. So RCI says you have been Loyal you get more points bang.

So my theory is RCI starts at the Supply and Demand number for exchange weeks THEN adds or subtracts a Loyalty factor. Looks like for VV@P the Loyalty factor is HIGH. And Vistana gets subtracted.

If you want to "work" the RCI system use the calculator, you will find out the resorts that RCI likes and thinks are Loyal to the system and deposit a High Percentage of their units.

Otherwise don't work the system and quit RCI.

But please stop bickering. Some people like Orlando some people like the Beach, we like both, we go to both every year
-----------------------------------
You know what is also strange, for Vistana it looks like EVERY week of the year is the same - 23 points.

For VV@P it GREATLY fluctuates - I didn't go through every week but some weeks in September dip down to 15 for a 2 Bed

Maybe a resort can also request to be LEVEL, so some owners don't feel shafted because they have a lackluster week even though they pay the same. This may have been done for resorts who FLOAT ownership most of their weeks. This would make sense. In which case the bulk of the deposits are going to be off weeks but there will be some good weeks, but Vistana instructs RCI to keep them all the same because all owners are going to be treated the same?

It's possible.

Just another theory.
-------------------------------------------
In any case, if I am buying and I am an RCI member (which I am) and like the offerings in their system (which I do), I would:

1) Buy something that generates a lot of TPU - check the calculator it is there
2) Buy something that I would want to visit IF TPU / Trading system changes. Which it could always change. (Although in their magazine they said they are getting a lot of positive feed back)
3) Buy cautiously - maybe one unit and try it out, we are talking a dollar plus closing costs on EBAY.

Ok I said enough - Bye

 

[Carolinian]

RCI cares nothing about loyalty of individual members. It is developer loyalty they care about, and that is who they makes deals with. I had one of the higher ups with Barrier Island Station explain to me how they, in combination with other non-OBX resorts were politicking RCI for higher numbers than RCI had offered them in RCI Points. I am sure the same thing would have gone on with Points Lite, especially since RCI shared the upcoming numbers months in advance but did not even tell other resorts that a change was coming.

So perhaps your example shows which developers in that area are in bed with RCI.

I wonder when RCI says Utilization maybe they mean Loyalty. The reason I say this is look at the numbers

Points Deposit Calculator:

OLCC 2 Bed - July 4th week 38 TPU; XMAS 57 TPU
VV@P - Very close to OLCC
RCI affiliated only

Vistana 2 Bed - July 4th week 22 TPU; XMAS 23 TPU
Dual affiliated but mostly affiliated with II - But still tons of RCI deposits

Maybe RCI assigns a "Loyalty" number - like a Utilization number. And I bet this has to do with whether the resort is loyal to RCI AND gives it a bunch of deposits.

See RCI wants a resort to be dedicated to its system and giving it a lot of deposits. This way it gets more exchanges and more weeks to potentially rent.

What may not seem fair is that it pentalizes the individual owner. But I guess it figures the owners can change the resort and make it a mostly geared to be an 'RCI' resort. Only owners can do this. So you pay as owners (HOA board) if you decided you want the flexibility to dump exchanges into II, or somewhere else. I can see RCI's point and I can see Carolinian's point.

Personally if I bought in Orlando (which I wouldn't) I would like to buy Vistana (which I won't) because it's my favorite, BUT RCI doesn't value it, my guess is because it is not loyal, because I certainly see a bunch of deposits all the time in RCI. So volume is their but loyalty is not.

Even Orbit One (another place we like but its no Vistana) gets higher points than Vistana on deposit (53 for xmas for OO) - and I know the volume is not as big as Vistana. It must be the loyalty factor. Or maybe they give a higher percentage of their units to RCI.

The funny thing is - to trade into Vistana you need more points then Orbit One (and the same as VV@P and OLCC). I am looking at Easter week, and I need 22 for Vistana and 20 for Orbit One. Looks like Loyalty is not part of the trading equation, and well it kind of makes sense because that is all about supply and demand.

RCI knows Loyalty means NOTHING when a person is actually doing a Trade. Demand for a place and the Supply means everything when a person is looking for a Trade. So RCI HAS to point them so they are taken. If there are too many Orbit One's they have to point them low.

Loyalty means everything on the deposit. So RCI says you have been Loyal you get more points bang.

So my theory is RCI starts at the Supply and Demand number for exchange weeks THEN adds or subtracts a Loyalty factor. Looks like for VV@P the Loyalty factor is HIGH. And Vistana gets subtracted.

If you want to "work" the RCI system use the calculator, you will find out the resorts that RCI likes and thinks are Loyal to the system and deposit a High Percentage of their units.

Otherwise don't work the system and quit RCI.

But please stop bickering. Some people like Orlando some people like the Beach, we like both, we go to both every year
-----------------------------------
You know what is also strange, for Vistana it looks like EVERY week of the year is the same - 23 points.

For VV@P it GREATLY fluctuates - I didn't go through every week but some weeks in September dip down to 15 for a 2 Bed

Maybe a resort can also request to be LEVEL, so some owners don't feel shafted because they have a lackluster week even though they pay the same. This may have been done for resorts who FLOAT ownership most of their weeks. This would make sense. In which case the bulk of the deposits are going to be off weeks but there will be some good weeks, but Vistana instructs RCI to keep them all the same because all owners are going to be treated the same?

It's possible.

Just another theory.
-------------------------------------------
In any case, if I am buying and I am an RCI member (which I am) and like the offerings in their system (which I do), I would:

1) Buy something that generates a lot of TPU - check the calculator it is there
2) Buy something that I would want to visit IF TPU / Trading system changes. Which it could always change. (Although in their magazine they said they are getting a lot of positive feed back)
3) Buy cautiously - maybe one unit and try it out, we are talking a dollar plus closing costs on EBAY.

Ok I said enough - Bye

 

[tombo]

Not getting into the arbitrage debate. Just offering a quick observation for the Guest(s) who can't see the sightings forum.

Lets speak to demand in terms of actual TUG members who care to look at sighting in various areas.

Today an England 1 bed room July SUMMER week was listed on the sightings. So far zero people have posted and only 7 views total.

Yesterday a New York sighting was posted and there have been 25 posts and 299 total views.

On May 10th an Orlando sighting was posted and it has 15 posts and 479 views, and that is in that overbuilt Orlando.

One posted today in Kauai has 3 posts and 73 views.


People view the sightings they MIGHT be interested in exchanging for, and ignore posts they could care less about. Very few posts on the sightings board for any location anywhere in the world have less views than the summer England week.

That shows demand among TUGGERS.

Nuff said.

 

[MichaelColey]

There you go drinking the logic kool-aid...

 

[ampaholic]

I don't see the hub bub for London and vicinity - I can see more London and vicinity 9 to 10 months out in my points acct. than I can see Yellowstone.

So London is less popular / more overbuilt than Yellowstone? Pisshaw

"...full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." W. Shakespeare

 

[heathpack]

I'm surprised you would post something so misleading. The England post has few views, yes. But it is the youngest post on the Sightings board and it was a very simple sighting whose title contained all the info one would need: unit, check in, date and resort. The NY post is 18 hours older, it was a more generic post (Many NY weeks with a range of TPUs and dates), it almost forces one to take a peek. Then there are a number of posts and replies about your personal upcoming trip to NY, accounting for much of the traffic. Many more people looked at the NY thread, I'm sure because its title was of necessity vaguer because of the nature of the info contained in the thread. Maybe NY is of more interest than England, but the example you gave certainly does not illustrate the point you are trying to make.

H

Not getting into the arbitrage debate. Just offering a quick observation for the Guest(s) who can't see the sightings forum.

Lets speak to demand in terms of actual TUG members who care to look at sighting in various areas.

Today an England 1 bed room week was listed on the sightings. So far zero people have posted and only 7 views total.

Yesterday a New York sighting was posted and there have been 25 posts and 299 total views.

On May 10th an Orlando sighting was posted and it has 15 posts and 479 views, and that is in that overbuilt Orlando.

One posted today in Kauai has 3 posts and 73 views.


People view the sightings they MIGHT be interested in exchanging for, and ignore posts they could care less about. Very few posts on the sightings board for any location anywhere in the world have less views than the summer England week.

That shows demand among TUGGERS.

Nuff said.

 

[tombo]

I'm surprised you would post something so misleading. The England post has few views, yes. But it is the youngest post on the Sightings board and it was a very simple sighting whose title contained all the info one would need: unit, check in, date and resort. The NY post is 18 hours older, it was a more generic post (Many NY weeks with a range of TPUs and dates), it almost forces one to take a peek. Then there are a number of posts and replies about your personal upcoming trip to NY, accounting for much of the traffic. Many more people looked at the NY thread, I'm sure because its title was of necessity vaguer because of the nature of the info contained in the thread. Maybe NY is of more interest than England, but the example you gave certainly does not illustrate the point you are trying to make.

H

The new York post listed the exact name of the resort, it listed the exchange company, the available dates, and the TPU's required IN THE TITLE on sightings. How could that be considered generic?

I specifically stated that the New York post was from the previous day. Please re-read. nothing misleading at all. Comparing apples to apples, do you really think that the England post will have 25 responses and 300 views this time tomorrow?

I assure you if there is a post for many weeks in England I will not take a peek. If there are many weeks on the sightings in San Diego, I will not take a peek. I will not take a peek at anything in Texas. The same with Atlantic City, Vegas, Utah, Colorado, etc, etc, etc. There is nothing wrong with any of those destinations but I have no interest in going to any of those places in the near future, so I will not peek, read, or post. It makes no difference if there is one week available at those locations or hundreds because I am not going there anytime soon so I don't care.

 

[tombo]

Today an England 1 bed room July SUMMER week was listed on the sightings. So far zero people have posted and only 7 views total.

Yesterday a New York sighting was posted and there have been 25 posts and 299 total views.

On May 10th an Orlando sighting was posted and it has 15 posts and 479 views, and that is in that overbuilt Orlando.

One posted today in Kauai has 3 posts and 73 views.



Nuff said.

Just as an FYI since I posted this post this afternoon the sightings listed are currently:

New York 27 posts and 345 views

The Orlando has 15 posts and 511 views

The Kauai week has 3 posts and 105 views

The England week has ZERO POSTS and 17 views.

In the last 6 hours NY has increased by 46 views, Kauai has increased by 32 views, Orlando has increased by 32 views, and England has increased by 10 views.

Taking into account that the height of interest is the first day a sighting is posted, England is not generating much interest. Of course now some fan of England can start viewing repeatedly to get the number of views up, but barring that misleading tactic it is just not of interest to most. Not that it isn't worth listing as a sighting to benefit any TUGGER looking for England, but it just isn't something popular for most TUGGERS.

Another factual way to judge interest on TUG is to view the number of posts and threads by region. The only sections lower than Europe are South Africa and Canada, and those are individual countries. Every region and state in the US have more posts and threads than Europe. Mexico has a lot more posts and threads than Europe. The Carribbean has more posts and threads than all of Europe. Demand is easy to judge by the interest, time, posts, and threads dedicated to each location. Europe is almost at the bottom.

Heck just the states of Hawaii and Florida each have 3 to 4 times the number of threads and 5 to 6 times more posts than Europe has. Europe is composed of many countries, yet EVERY region and state in the US has more posts and more threads on TUG than all of the european countries COMBINED. The total number of threads and posts for the entire USA dwarfs Europe, Canada,and everywhere else in the world combined. There are about 135,000 USA posts on TUG. There are a total of about 14,000 posts total about South Africa, ALL of Europe, and all other international locations combined. The USA has about 10 times more posts. Facts is facts.

 

[elaine]

sort of ironic--I own a summer Atlantic Beach week and parents own an Orlando week. I agree that AB is more of a local, NC place--but you never see summer weeks sitting in RCI. I can sort of understand that Orlando gets so many visitors, even being overbuilt.
But, what I don't get is why MB gets so many more TPUs than equal (or better) resorts in HHI? Does MB really get that many more visitors than HHI?

I do love the 56 TPUs that my parents' Orlando TS gets (and they share the wealth). But, still seems overweighted, as prior to the Nov change, my HHI timeshare pulled more units than their Orlando week, and now they get 20 TPUs more than I do.
I would not buy an Orlando week unless it was part of a mini-system you liked, or you planned to use the Orlando week. Why? who's to say RCi doesn't move the goalposts in 2 years? Lots of TPUs seem great now, but I would not want to be stuck with a week and it's maintenance fees if the TPUs change.

 

[Carolinian]

The Orlando resorts that get posted as sightings are almost exclusively DVC, which seems to have a cult following. Also occaisionally a particularly large unit at a major holiday or something like that.

But lets think about this logically. If it is a sighting that means it went online because there was no ongoing search for it. In fact, even with the most desired of Orlando, DVC, a pretty fair amount of it ends up online because there were no ongoing searches for it.

Contrast that with the rare weeks that never go online because they are taken by an ongoing search immediately after they are deposited.

For many leisure travellers from the US, which happens to be the overwhelming majority of TUG members, a European week two months away has a major barrier in front of it - it is much too late to get ff tickets. TUG is also not anywhere close to a representative sample of timesharers overall in the first place, for a lot more reasons than geographic.

You have a very good way to find out real demand relative to supply. What hangs out online at RCI and what never makes it online because it is almost always snapped up by an ongoing search? Have you ever seen an online sighting of London at RCI - EVER - for example?

Not getting into the arbitrage debate. Just offering a quick observation for the Guest(s) who can't see the sightings forum.

Lets speak to demand in terms of actual TUG members who care to look at sighting in various areas.

Today an England 1 bed room July SUMMER week was listed on the sightings. So far zero people have posted and only 7 views total.

Yesterday a New York sighting was posted and there have been 25 posts and 299 total views.

On May 10th an Orlando sighting was posted and it has 15 posts and 479 views, and that is in that overbuilt Orlando.

One posted today in Kauai has 3 posts and 73 views.


People view the sightings they MIGHT be interested in exchanging for, and ignore posts they could care less about. Very few posts on the sightings board for any location anywhere in the world have less views than the summer England week.

That shows demand among TUGGERS.

Nuff said.

 

[elaine]

actually, we have seen a number of sightings, esp. bulks, that go online without getting matched up with searches. I had an ongoing search for HGVC HAwaii and it was on sightings an entire day before I saw it and grabbed it--my search was still ongoing. Another posted that her search got matched 10 hours later on the 2nd day a bulk was posted on sightings.
Otherwise, totally agree about Orlando being over-pointed, and have NEVER been able to get anything good in Europe for summer! Elaine

 

[tombo]

The Orlando resorts that get posted as sightings are almost exclusively DVC, which seems to have a cult following. Also occaisionally a particularly large unit at a major holiday or something like that.

The demand for DVC is huge. You don't like DVC. So because you don't understand the huge interest in DVC it is a cult like following?

You love London. Most on TUG could care less. Are you simply in a different cult?

If you post about England you will get few if any responses. Few care. You might be in a London timeshare cult too, but your cult has few converts.

If you post about DVC you will get lots of views. lots of posts, and a lot of interest. That is not a cult, that is demand.

For many leisure travellers from the US, which happens to be the overwhelming majority of TUG members, a European week two months away has a major barrier in front of it - it is much too late to get ff tickets. TUG is also not anywhere close to a representative sample of timesharers overall in the first place, for a lot more reasons than geographic.

TUG is not representative of MOST timesharers? Really? Please point out a web site with more timeshare users, posts, and members than TUG. Where is this tru representative timeshare users group? By the way if this magical pro European timeshare web site or sites actually exists, why do you spend all of your time posting on TUG where we don't understand the great demand for Europe. Why aren't your posting with the enlightened timesharers rather than those of us who just don't understand the great demand for Europe?

You have a very good way to find out real demand relative to supply. What hangs out online at RCI and what never makes it online because it is almost always snapped up by an ongoing search? Have you ever seen an online sighting of London at RCI - EVER - for example?

I have never looked for London on sightings, on RCI,on II, on SFX, on DAE, or in an ongoing search through anyone. If there is one week available in the next 4 years in London, that is more supply than I will demand. I am one of those uninformed TUGGERS who just don't realize or care what the availability of any Europe resort is.

If you want to tallk to TUGGERS who do care and might be better informed about London etc, there is a European section here on TUG. Of course to post there is pretty lonelly and you might end up talking to yourself and listening to crickets chirp. FEW TUGGERS care about resorts in Europe, sightings for Europe, what RCI assigns to resorts in Europe, or anything else about Europe. But heck you can keep posting and maybe some here will be converted to your London loving cult.

 

[elaine]

getting OT, but I have to agree that TUG is not representative of TS users. 10 people I know who have TS have never heard of TUG. Most TS owners bought from developer and still don't really understand how to use RCI. They think calling 6-8 months out could get them a good trade and don't understand why not and get frustrated and wind up never using their deposits--or using at a much lesser resort just to "use it up." No one I talked to even realizes the conversion to TPUs for weeks or what that means and have no clue as to how to "manage" their RCI accounts, grab sightings, etc. For ex, my friend thought he would put in in May to go skiing out West at Christmas, others are "deciding" in May where they might like to go to next Easter in the Carib." Obviously, they are not getting these trades.

 

[bnoble]

TUG is also not anywhere close to a representative sample of timesharers overall in the first place, for a lot more reasons than geographic.

I almost never say this, but Steve is 100% correct here. TUGgers are representative of average timesharers in much the same way that a Cal Tech physics professor is representative of the average student in a middle school science class.

 

[vckempson]

getting OT, but I have to agree that TUG is not representative of TS users. 10 people I know who have TS have never heard of TUG. Most TS owners bought from developer and still don't really understand how to use RCI. They think calling 6-8 months out could get them a good trade and don't understand why not and get frustrated and wind up never using their deposits--or using at a much lesser resort just to "use it up." No one I talked to even realizes the conversion to TPUs for weeks or what that means and have no clue as to how to "manage" their RCI accounts, grab sightings, etc. For ex, my friend thought he would put in in May to go skiing out West at Christmas, others are "deciding" in May where they might like to go to next Easter in the Carib." Obviously, they are not getting these trades.

That's why this is the greatest opportunity we've seen in the history of timesharing. Why not capitalize on these inefficiencies while you can?

Potential buyers (exchangers) who avoid overpointing are foolish. That's because it's not "overpointing" resulting from back room deals, but a "utilization" bonus for places that generate trades... the same places that will generate even more trades when the economy and the travel sector improve. It is both rational and sustainable, unless of course you think people will stop going to these popular overbuilt destinations. For exchangers, the utilization bonus tells us exactly what we've always wanted to know, in black and white... where the tiger traders are. Btw, there's nothing abnormal about VV@P that's not true of all Orlando. It's amazing, though, how pervasive this VV@P conspiracy theory is.

Those like Carolinian are wrong for all the right reasons. (as long as you ingore utilization) But you can only be wrong for all the right reasons for so long before you have to face reality. How long must someone live with poor exchanges, before realizing that their righteous indignation is constantly getting them a swift boot in the *ss? Only time will tell.

 

[tombo]

I almost never say this, but Steve is 100% correct here. TUGgers are representative of average timesharers in much the same way that a Cal Tech physics professor is representative of the average student in a middle school science class.

So the TUG members who prefer and travel mostly to US timeshares are more intelligent and more educated than the average timeshare owner. That is good to know. I feel like I need to teach a graduate course in timeshare economics. So we TUG members are the eqivalent of a doctorate Cal Tech professor up against the average timesharer who loves Europe and is comparable to middle school students. Boy do I feel superior.

Sorry Carolinian but we TUGGERS who love to travel to the US and don't care about Europe are smarter and better informed than the average timeshare owners. Bnoble agrees with you. Quit trying to educate us. We are like a Cal Tech Professor. We are inteligent and informed. Leave us alone and try to educate those ignorant uninformed european timeshare owners.

 

[e.bram]

TUGGERS are smart. Smart enough to know there is no sense wasting time looking for something that is not there. ie Good European exchanges.

 

[tombo]

TUGGERS are smart. Smart enough to know there is no sense wasting time looking for something that is not there. ie Good European exchanges.

We are smart. We don't waste time looking for availability in Europe because we don't want to exchange for Europe.