The recent silver market

[Brett]

Well, no. Our residential rental real estate is our main generator of retirement income. Precious metals is our store of wealth, and is secondary. Most of our silver and gold was bought much earlier, at much lower prices, but we add to it from time to time. That silver purchase I referred to represented taking some of the excess out of our rental income account, and I wish I had taken at least 10K out at the time. I used it as an example, because it was our own YTD example.

One has to look at the dynamics of today's markets, not ancient history. Maybe you can tell me how much were paid in dividends on the S&P over the last two months? No, I did not think you could or would.

Yes, I don't look at two (2) month returns, it's more about years and decades and total returns

But silver is for chumps - platinum is the metal

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[Carolinian]

Yes, I don't look at two (2) month returns, it's more about years and decades and total returns

But silver is for chumps - platinum is the metal


View attachment 122641\

View attachment 122642

The fact is the financial world changed considerably when government debt reached a point that central banks started decreasing holdings of ALL major fiat currencies and started rotating to gold. Citing numbers prior to that time is just comparing apples to oranges. I look at what is happened NOW rather than a decade or more ago. Fiat currencies were much more stable then.

Platinum has had a good run lately. It is a precious metal but not a monetary metal. Central banks do not hold it in their reserves, and the only country I am aware of that issued circulating coinage struck in platinum was Czarist Russia for a brief period.

 

[Brett]

The fact is the financial world changed considerably when government debt reached a point that central banks started decreasing holdings of ALL major fiat currencies and started rotating to gold. Citing numbers prior to that time is just comparing apples to oranges. I look at what is happened NOW rather than a decade or more ago. Fiat currencies were much more stable then.

Platinum has had a good run lately. It is a precious metal but not a monetary metal. Central banks do not hold it in their reserves, and the only country I am aware of that issued circulating coinage struck in platinum was Czarist Russia for a brief period.

So platinum is last year, what about Palantir - it's a favorite of the 'big' guy and the War Dept

I look at the now (for the next couple of years)

 

[PigsDad]

So, how much "total return" did the S&P bring in YTD, i.e. in the last two months?

Wow! You still don't get it. Even after I spoon-fed it to you. Unbelievable!

Kurt

 

[emeryjre]

There really are some people who equate being lucky with being smart

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Kurt and emeryjre, I repeat my comment #282 from this thread. Unlike Brett's endlessly repeated chart, I start my chart with everything at the same starting point in price and time.

(He doesn't, he gives his total return stocks index a head start; see the gap at the start of his chart. If you started the total return stock line with the gold and non total return stock indexes line, you'd get the same result as I did. Let's look at the math.
The black line start at around 2,500 - take a small ruler and measure yourself. Note how the red and blue stock line start at the same point as the gold line. I'll be generous and give his black line 25,000 - it keep the math simple. 25,000 / 2,500 is 10 fold. 10 fold is 1000% - which basically matches the 800+% on my chart - different starting points. He also picks 2011, a silver peak to make silver look as bad as possible. Why not 2000 or 2016? People don't just buy at peaks, they buy in valleys as well.

The sad part is he really believes his chart - he can't use the long term chart to really understand the investment flows.)

BLUE is DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
RED is S&P 500 index
BLACK is MSCI USA TOTAL RETURN index (including compounded dividends)
GOLD is Gold
SILVER is Silver

 

[Brett]

Kurt and emeryjre, I repeat my comment #282 from this thread. Unlike Brett's endlessly repeated chart, I start my chart with everything at the same starting point in price and time.

(He doesn't, he gives his total return stocks index a head start; see the gap at the start of his chart. If you started the total return stock line with the gold and non total return stock indexes line, you'd get the same result as I did. Let's look at the math.
The black line start at around 2,500 - take a small ruler and measure yourself. Note how the red and blue stock line start at the same point as the gold line. I'll be generous and give his black line 25,000 - it keep the math simple. 25,000 / 2,500 is 10 fold. 10 fold is 1000% - which basically matches the 800+% on my chart - different starting points. He also picks 2011, a silver peak to make silver look as bad as possible. Why not 2000 or 2016? People don't just buy at peaks, they buy in valleys as well.

The sad part is he really believes his chart - he can't use the long term chart to really understand the investment flows.)



BLUE is DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
RED is S&P 500 index
BLACK is MSCI USA TOTAL RETURN index (including compounded dividends)
GOLD is Gold
SILVER is Silver

Sad ....... so sad

March 2, 2026

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/warren-buffett-and-the-giant-gold-cube-07eb4366?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqe6LLJzWQYMXsLsi23C6BDIHuGJtaEU4rtZkhgBmcAVYUQxNux_gQ7H&gaa_ts=69a59e9e&gaa_sig=_F6zVpB-gtuOcra67awSs9RLc9mTvLn5QParcl0ZT3C83ecTUbqiPLsrckad_SXR4O_a3h-ug51FkuSVg5EWMQ==

.

.

 

[emeryjre]

Kurt and emeryjre, I repeat my comment #282 from this thread. Unlike Brett's endlessly repeated chart, I start my chart with everything at the same starting point in price and time.

(He doesn't, he gives his total return stocks index a head start; see the gap at the start of his chart. If you started the total return stock line with the gold and non total return stock indexes line, you'd get the same result as I did. Let's look at the math.
The black line start at around 2,500 - take a small ruler and measure yourself. Note how the red and blue stock line start at the same point as the gold line. I'll be generous and give his black line 25,000 - it keep the math simple. 25,000 / 2,500 is 10 fold. 10 fold is 1000% - which basically matches the 800+% on my chart - different starting points. He also picks 2011, a silver peak to make silver look as bad as possible. Why not 2000 or 2016? People don't just buy at peaks, they buy in valleys as well.

The sad part is he really believes his chart - he can't use the long term chart to really understand the investment flows.)


View attachment 122663
BLUE is DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
RED is S&P 500 index
BLACK is MSCI USA TOTAL RETURN index (including compounded dividends)
GOLD is Gold
SILVER is Silver

I would like to reiterate that none of my statements are intended as personal attacks
I TRULY have no interest in Gold or Silver as an investment
I TRULY have never purchased any physical Gold or Silver
I have no interest in the rate of return on Gold or Silver vs any other index
Over any time frame
There is an entire world of revolving around Gold and Silver
I have never been interested in that world

I will sit with my roll of Silver Kennedy Half Dollars and continue to show no interest

There are plenty of other worlds that are far more interesting
The latest is the world of Artificial Intelligence
I am scrambling every day to keep up with the changes in that world

 

[Carolinian]

Wow! You still don't get it. Even after I spoon-fed it to you. Unbelievable!

Kurt

You still don't get it !!! YTD is ONLY TWO MONTHS. How many dividends would impact stock return in TWO MONTHS????? No wonder you refuse to answer that question.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

I would like to reiterate that none of my statements are intended as personal attacks
I TRULY have no interest in Gold or Silver as an investment
I TRULY have never purchased any physical Gold or Silver
I have no interest in the rate of return on Gold or Silver vs any other index
Over any time frame
There is an entire world of revolving around Gold and Silver
I have never been interested in that world

I will sit with my roll of Silver Kennedy Half Dollars and continue to show no interest

There are plenty of other worlds that are far more interesting
The latest is the world of Artificial Intelligence
I am scrambling every day to keep up with the changes in that world

I follow and study investing, in all its facets. I don't just limit myself to just one subset. There are times when asset x is preferable to asset y, and times when it is just the opposite. JP Morgan Sr. advice on investing its still as accurate today as it was in the late 19th century. "Buy a sound investment that is out of favor." Today, virtually nothing is out of favor, not metals, not stocks, not bonds. Real estate, maybe, but only somewhat. Collectibles have too much bid/ask spreads. Interest rates are low. Yesterday's returns mean nothing about tomorrows's returns.

My other worlds are studying peer-reviewed research papers of various parts of anti aging. (and a half a dozen other things.)

 

[Carolinian]

 

[Carolinian]

 

[Brett]

March 2, 2026

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/warren-buffett-and-the-giant-gold-cube-07eb4366?mod=finance_more_article_pos2

.

 

[Carolinian]

Today's central bankers think a lot more like J.P. Morgan than they do Warren Buffett

 

[easyrider]

There really are some people who equate being lucky with being smart

I knew many "smart people" in 2007-2009 that lost most of their retirement being smart. Some had time on their side and others didn't. Not dying before recouping might be considered luck, idk.

Bill

 

[Brett]

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Only 2 years and 10 months for the "geopolitical uncertainty and tariffs" to end !

 

[ScoopKona]

.
Only 2 years and 10 months for the "geopolitical uncertainty and tariffs" to end !

Bold of you to assume there's going to be a peaceful transfer of power.

 

[easyrider]

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View attachment 123222


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Only 2 years and 10 months for the "geopolitical uncertainty and tariffs" to end !

It's a never ending sh*t show no matter what person is running the show Brett. To me it's better to focus on my own virtues and actions. I've accepted that there is nothing I can do about the sh*t show but there is plenty I can do for those I love.

Bill

 

[emeryjre]

Anyone figured out why there has been a huge drop in gold and silver prices
I don't follow these markets
Thought times of uncertainty and chaos were considered to be reasons to own them

 

[dagger1]

Somebody must be selling. Major purchasers like China need dollars to pay for oil, no discounted sanctioned oil they used to pay for in yuan..??

 

[Carolinian]

One has to look at the whales in gold, which is the central banks. They follow trends in timing purchases tp a point, although not as much so as institutional buyers and retail buyers. In most cases, geopolitical uncertainty causes precious metals to rise. However, when Persian gulf oil is involved, past dynamics make for a different consideration. Once before, when the oil stopped flowing from the Persian gulf, the gulf states kept their economies going by selling gold. When oil started flowing again, they restocked their gold reserves, but while they were selling, it moved the market downward. While there ap[ear to be no confirmed central bank sales from the gulf states, including Saudi Arabia yet, the liklihood that there will be has been priced into the market, and also has caused central bank buying to be paused. Silver and gold tend to follow each other in direction, and that is also impacting silver.

The fact that oil and gas infrastructure is being damaged by Iranian attacks may cause this to play out over a longer period than the previous time when there was no such damage, because they may have to dip into their gold reserves over a longer period.

Selling gold to keep economies afloat happens from time to time. With Turkey, it has happened several times with an economic crisis, but as soon as that has passed, they jump in and replenish their gold reserves. A few years ago, a severe economic crises in Sri Lanka that became a political crisis and caused the president and prime minister to flee the country led to them selling almost all of their gold, but the economy has not recovered enough for them to try to refill their reserves.

When a central bank sells gold, public reports will reveal it. However, sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and elsewhere have also been buying gold, and when they sell it is not necessarily well known. Most if not all of the gulf states have gold in the sovereign wealth funds, and it is likely that is what would be sold rather than central bank gold. Here is why central banks are rotating out of fiat currencies:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2026/03/25/americas_130_trillion_blind_spot_153976.html

Many central banks have been rotating out of fiat currencies and into gold in recent years. A dip in gold prices while the dollar is strong makes an excellent time to do that, There is little doubt that central banks are watching the whole situation closely on when to jump in to take advantage of that. The big unknown is how long it will take for the gulf states to get their oil and gas flowing again.

There are some other interesting factors here. One is the gating of investments in the private credit marker, meaning investors cannot get their money out of many of the leading players there, so when they need cash, they have to sell a different asset. Often that is paper gold or paper silver, either Comex contracts or ETF's.

Then there is the potential implosion of the paper gold and particularly silver markets at the Comex. The Comex was designed with the concept that most contracts would be cash settled instead of contract holders standing for delivery. However, with silver over the last year or so, with mine supply less than annual demand, many buyers of Comex contracts have been standing for delivery, and that is seriously draining Comex's silver vaults. More recently, the same thing has started happening in gold. Once those vaults are fully drained, it will blow up the main paper silver and paper gold markets. It is a lot closer to happening in silver than in gold, some predict only a matter of a few months but that would probably accelerate the process in gold, and some predict that it would cause such a loss of trust that it would sweep through all of the derivative markets tin most everything.

One also has to remember that the biggest silver and gold ETF's are run by a bank that has been heavily fined for manipulating the silver market in the past, and there are doubts it really has the metal to back up its obligations.

 

[easyrider]

I hadn't thought about silver enough to look and see where the price is until now. It's crazy that it went up to over $126 and is now around $73.

Bill

 

[TolmiePeak]

I hadn't thought about silver enough to look and see where the price is until now. It's crazy that it went up to over $126 and is now around $73.

Bill

Yes the price is collapsing. Many people are taking a beating if they bought at $126.

 

[easyrider]

Yes the price is collapsing. Many people are taking a beating if they bought at $126.

At $126 plus the premium it might take a long time to even break even but given the forecast it looks like silver prices could increase using the if's and but's metric, lol.

Bill

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Yes the price is collapsing. Many people are taking a beating if they bought at $126.

OTOH, if the vast majority of your holdings were bought at $20 or less, it's not a big disaster. Think Dollar Cost Averaging. . .