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The "real" price of gasoline

casey2

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The "real" price of gasoline: Gasoline cost 27 cents a gallon in 1949 compared to around $4.00 today.* How has the relative cost of buying gas changed over the last 59 years? Presented here are two tables computing the annual "real" cost using our five indicators, one in 2007 dollars, the current number used for real GDP, and the other in 1949 dollars. While the two tables show the same trends, they do give a different perspective.

Using the 2007 table and the CPI and the GDP deflator, we see that gasoline was quite expensive in 1980 and 1981 and the cheapest in 1998 and 1999. Today, the real price using these two measures is higher than the period at the beginning of the 1980s.

By looking at the share of the Consumer Bundle and GDP per capita, the story is a bit different. In 1981, a gallon of gas took as much out of what the average consumer spent as $4.00 does in 2007. And as a share of GDP per capita, gas was even more expensive in those earlier days with it at over $4.50 in 1980 and more expensive in the earlier years.

The other table tells the story in a different way. Let us look at relative cost to an unskilled worker to fill up using 1949 dollars. That year the 27 cents it cost for a gallon of gas, took a certain share of the worker's wage. The interesting question is, has the cost as a share or percent of the worker's wage increased or decreased over time? The table shows that for the wage rate and price of gasoline in other years, this cost has fallen. Since wages have increased faster than the price of gasoline, by 2007 an unskilled worker spends only two-thirds as much, as a percent of wage, for a gallon of gasoline than the 1949 worker. The table shows that the $2.85 a worker paid in 2007 would be comparable to only 20 cents (in 1949 prices "share" of the wage.

When we use the GDP per capita, the cost has fallen faster. Looking at the table shows that a gallon of gasoline costs around 11 cents a gallon (in 1949 prices) if measured as a "share" of the GDP per capita. This is because in 1949, 27 cents was .015% of per capita GDP, while in 2007, $2.85 was .006%.

Finally, comparing its cost as a share of GDP, we see that in 1949 prices, it is about 6 cents. This means that a gallon gasoline was a four and a half times larger share of output in 1949 than it is today.

* The nominal price of gasoline can be found at found at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/petro.html and http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_a.htm For the tables used here, I used the price of a gallon of leaded regular from 1949 to 1976, the average of the price of leaded regular and unleaded regular from 1977 to 1990 and the price of unleaded regular from 1991 to 2007.
 
A waste of time....

Americans seem to be in love with their government solving all problems – of course the exact opposite is true – it is the government that causes gasoline, or corn, or ethanol, to not obey market forces but to go bonkers.

Comparing today’s gas to previous gas prices is really a waste of time. 10% of today’s gasoline came from corn farmers in the form of ethanol. There is NO scientific evidence that this does anything but make corn farmers rich.

There are dozens of “Blends” of gasoline that cause refineries to stop production and tinker with the mixture – all of which have NO scientific basis and add to the cost of gas.

Then there is the corn that would normally feed people being used to feed our cars – insanity.

We will look back, many years from now, and wonder why we put up with all these crazy schemes by a government out of control.

P.S.
Then the insanity of the US having more energy in oil, gas, uranium than the rest of the world combined.

But, we have decided not to use it but to buy energy from our enemies and make them stronger and us weaker - insanity. How do we compare our insanity of 40 years ago to todays - just look at all the crazy stuff crumbling around us. What's the answer? Why bigger government of course......

One day we will have a “Chernobyl meltdown” of our government – incompetence fixing incompetence results in meltdown – the trick is how to profit from this…
 
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I agree with you about ethanol Perry. I work for a non-profit oceanographic research organization. The main project I'm working on is an attempt to study the effects of increased CO2 on the world's oceans - see here. The scientists I work with are very concerned about global climate change. And yet all of them that I talk to recognize that corn-based ethanol is a political boondoggle with virtually no benefits for reducing our carbon footprint.

In other news on the price of oil, check out today's Yahoo article on the subject. In talking about recent price volatility, an expert says:

"Extended two-sided volatility like this is indicative of an impending price top," he added. "People wanting to get out are just as enthusiastic as people trying to get in."

Also:
"With each passing day, we are reading about more car companies cutting back on production, airlines slashing flights, and consumers driving less," said Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global. "Of course, these are not new factors, and energy markets have ignored them for several months now as they have relentlessly pushed higher, but we suspect that as the pace of demand destruction accelerates it will be harder to ignore."

It appears that demand-side responses to today's high prices are finally showing some effect.
 
The real cost of gas in 2008 is about $2.00 per gal. However, when you include all the federal, state, local taxes,etc. We are paying $3.95 per gallon.

We can send a man to the moon and return him safetly to earth. But no one in Michgan or Japan has develop a gasoline fuel injection system to get an average of 40 miles per gallon on all cars and trucks.
 
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The real cost of gas in 2008 is about $2.00 per gal. However, when you include all the federal, state, local taxes,etc. We are paying $3.95 per gallon.

We can send a man to the moon and return him safetly to earth. But no one in Michgan or Japan has develop a gasoline fuel injection system to get an average of 40 miles per gallon on all cars and trucks.

As an aerospace engineer who studied engines they are near 100% efficient and have been so for 100 years. Sure there are small things to reduce emissions but the technology is old and no new advancements will ever come from this technology. The internal combustion engines are about 35% efficient in converting the chemical energy in the fuel to mechanical energy. The other 65% is lost in heat.

The government magically waves its arms and demands better gas millage. The way the car manufactures do this is to replace parts made of steel with aluminum and those aluminum parts now made of plastic and the plastic parts made of paper.

The net result is that 40,000+ Americans have died for better gas mileage since they were riding in junk cars that crush like an aluminum beer can. But hey our cars get better gas mileage.



There are folks who do make platinum out of tin – they are called the futures exchange markets.

Imagine the money these folks make – they magically create a “contract” of light sweet crude oil for 1,000 barrels (42,000 gallons) of oil that is still in the ground and will be delivered to market 10 months away.

This “contract” has a “long” and a “short” side meaning that there is a buyer (like a company that uses something oil related – let’s say airlines who want to lock in ticket fairs 10 months away – like SouthWest does and the oil producer who wants to lock in a guaranteed profit 10 months out.

SW then Buys 1 contract of Jet A fuel for May 2009 delivery at $7 per gallon for instance. The Oil company does the opposite side to deliver a gallon of Jet A fuel for $7 a gallon in May of 2009.

Things go good for a while and our oil producer decides that they believe Jet A will go up and they then Buy Jet A contracts to cover their short position.

They wait a month and May Jet A is now $8 a gallon and now sell a contract short at $8, make a profit and then sell contracts since they will be delivering product in May.

May 2009 comes around and Jet A is $10 a gallon and SW airlines makes $3 profit per gallon which they then use to pay their fuel bill. The oil company got screwed out of $2 per gallon but made $1 trading so just a loss of $1 per gallon from what the price is then.

All the while the folks who cooked up this great scheme collect fees on the buys and sells and in May 2009 the contract disappear and those who are short must deliver product to market at $10 a gallon.

Now the government wants to get involved with this – to make it better? Punish those evil speculators in the preceding paragraphs - they are pure evil in the eyes of politicians and many Americans.

(I used to trade oil futures 15 years ago)
 
Now the government wants to get involved with this – to make it better? Punish those evil speculators in the preceding paragraphs - they are pure evil in the eyes of politicians and many Americans.

Punish the speculators and punish the oil companies--that appears to be their mantra.

I wrote to both my senators and congresswoman in support of more domestic oil and gas production, nuclear power, and asking them to stop this insanity of burning food for fuel. One of my senators responded and her solution was she is supporting a bill that would levy a windfall profits tax on the oil companies.

I guess we cannot even expect them to learn from past mistakes. Even higher prices and gas lines anyone?
 
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TUG Lounge The place for all discussions that don't fit into the other defined forum areas. Posts discussing politics, religion, and controversial social issues that are not directly related to timesharing are not permitted.
 
Yabba-Dabba-Doo! I have the answer...

Punish the speculators and punish the oil companies--that appears to be their mantra.

I wrote to both my senators and congresswoman in support of more domestic oil and gas production, nuclear power, and asking them to stop this insanity of burning food for fuel. One of my senators responded and her solution was she is supporting a bill that would levy a windfall profits tax on the oil companies.

I guess we cannot even expect them to learn from past mistakes. Even higher prices and gas lines anyone?

Taxing increases the cost of things - another law of nature that can't be overwritten by a bunch of lawyers who know absolutely nothing about what they are doing.

The Sterling Engine is a substitute for the Internal Combustion Engine that does offer promise - but retooling for this engine would cost more than to just dump the engine for something else - like pedal power.

The Flintstones had it right! Quick politicians - pass a law and make this all just go away....
 
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