The coming Social Security fight could be 1983 all over again

[billymach4]

Yes... my personal Guarantee that the politicians will not allow SS to be cut. Take that for what it is.

While I share your optimism... I will hunt you down if the politicians fail us

 

[Brett]

While I share your optimism... I will hunt you down if the politicians fail us

Hoping I'm still around in 2032 when politicians declare they will solve the social security funding crisis if you vote for them in 2034

 

[joestein]

While I share your optimism... I will hunt you down if the politicians fail us

I would suggest hunting the politicians. Maybe the replacements will fix it if the current ones did not.

 

[ScoopKona]

Hoping I'm still around in 2032 when politicians declare they will solve the social security funding crisis if you vote for them in 2034

I predict that when the average American finally figures it out that our retirement scheme is going to fail, the only thing that will happen in Washington is a bunch of finger pointing. They won't try to fix the problem. They will try to assign blame and score political points.

Everyone who has been following this story knows we're 9,177 days too late to do anything meaningful.

 

[TolmiePeak]

I would suggest hunting the politicians. Maybe the replacements will fix it if the current ones did not.

Fix it? The problem now is so large that it is unfixable. They might develop a plan to avoid cuts for the poorest seniors but they have no money to avoid cuts for everyone.

 

[ScoopKona]

Fix it? The problem now is so large that it is unfixable. They might develop a plan to avoid cuts for the poorest seniors but they have no money to avoid cuts for everyone.

That would require lifting a finger and doing something -- and admitting this is a massive, unfixable problem. Doing nothing is safest for their career. They're going to keep raising benefits until the money runs out. Watch.

 

[joestein]

Fix it? The problem now is so large that it is unfixable. They might develop a plan to avoid cuts for the poorest seniors but they have no money to avoid cuts for everyone.

It is certainly fixable. But I meant passing a law that says SS shortfalls will be funded through the general fund.

 

[ScoopKona]

The OASDI deficit is roughly $500 billion per year. That's 1.3% of our GDP. And this number is only going to increase until we have equilibrium between retirees and worker's ability to cover the program.

For perspective, the DOD budget that year was just a smidge less than $850 billion.

Have fun with that idea...

 

[easyrider]

That's an interesting way to look at it. I took mine at 62. Crossover age vs taking it at FRA (67) is around 79-80. And that's not counting any return on the money collected over the 5 years. Any reasonable ROI for those 5 years pushes the crossover into the early 80's.

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As a couple , we added it all up so my wife started SS at 62. I'm waiting until fra for two reasons. The first is my wife would be able to collect my higher amount of SS when I pass on. Odds are she outlives me. The second is she gets a bump in SS payments when I start SS.

Until recently, we would have been in a higher tax bracket if I took SS. Next year it won't have as much if any impact because of the OBBBA legislation.

Bill

 

[TolmiePeak]

It is certainly fixable. But I meant passing a law that says SS shortfalls will be funded through the general fund.

Congress won't act. They keep kicking the can down the road.

 

[dagger1]

Hoping I'm still around in 2032 when politicians declare they will solve the social security funding crisis if you vote for them in 2034

 

[TolmiePeak]

We have a ways to go here before we catch up to the offshore wind thread.

 

[joestein]

Congress won't act. They keep kicking the can down the road.

They will act when SS is about to be cut.

 

[Elan]

As a couple , we added it all up so my wife started SS at 62. I'm waiting until fra for two reasons. The first is my wife would be able to collect my higher amount of SS when I pass on. Odds are she outlives me. The second is she gets a bump in SS payments when I start SS.

Until recently, we would have been in a higher tax bracket if I took SS. Next year it won't have as much if any impact because of the OBBBA legislation.

Bill

Everyone's situation is different, for sure. My wife is almost 7 years younger than me , so I didn't really factor her into my decision. By the time she can claim (at 62), I'll be 68.5. Although I don't need the SS income, our time on the top side isn't guaranteed, and I'd much rather have more money while I'm healthy enough to enjoy it than when I'm in a recliner watching Wheel of Fortune. She's obviously also benefiting from having the additional family income now.

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[dagger1]

We have a ways to go here before we catch up to the offshore wind thread.

 

[easyrider]

Everyone's situation is different, for sure. My wife is almost 7 years younger than me , so I didn't really factor her into my decision. By the time she can claim (at 62), I'll be 68.5. Although I don't need the SS income, our time on the top side isn't guaranteed, and I'd much rather have more money while I'm healthy enough to enjoy it than when I'm in a recliner watching Wheel of Fortune. She's obviously also benefiting from having the additional family income now.

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We do enjoy spending my wife's SS check. I tell her thanks for paying our mf's and our Medicare Premiums, lol.

Bill

 

[geist1223]

Our Social Security Checks are 2 of our 5 Retirement Checks. We also have my Military Reserve Retirement Check (1/2) goes to ex-wife. Then we have our 2 State Retirement Checks. Our State Retirement is set up so that if one of us dies the survivor continues to receive both State Retirement Checks. We each take a slightly lower amount to fund this. The survivor then ups their Retirement Check to the Full Amount.

 

[WinniWoman]

My husband and I weren’t big 6 figure earners. Mid 5 figures for each of us towards the end of our working lives. I don’t have a pension ( well I did have one that would have been $26 per month, but I took the $5000 lump sum. Lol!) and hubby took a lump sum that was cut off at the knees before he retired. Our FA recommended we both wait until age 70. Husband turned 70 in 2024. Very happy we waited as we can almost pay all our bills on just that check alone. And I will be claiming in June 2026. Our checks will be almost identical.

The first few years we stopped working we used some of our cash savings we were thankful to have. We were wanting for nothing, but we aren’t real big spenders anyway.

I doubt the politicians will cut current recipients benefits, but I can see them altering the current system.

 

[ScoopKona]

I doubt the politicians will cut current recipients benefits, but I can see them altering the current system.

It's not up to politicians at this point. They could vote to increase funding for the OASDI trust fund (income cap). Or they could vote to cut benefits (means testing). But what they can't do is change reality. 70 million retirees. Not enough workers paying in. That's the part they're powerless against. Short of wholesale change in the way the federal government operates, they aren't going to do anything.

 

[Brett]

Those elected this fall will face program’s 2032 insolvency deadline during their six-year terms​

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy...curity-crunch-67193b54?mod=politics_lead_pos3


"After years of Congress sidestepping and postponing the issue, the lawmakers will have to confront the program’s challenges before their
new six-year terms conclude. Recent projections pegged late 2032 as the moment when Social Security’s reserves and incoming tax revenue won’t
yield enough money to pay full benefits.

“It’s been disappointing that we have kicked the can this long,”

"The program’s cushion is running out faster than previously projected. The pandemic accelerated retirements, and decreasing fertility and mmigration can shrink the ratio of workers to retirees.

"Just eliminating the cap would cut Social Security’s long-run deficits in half. Taxing earnings above $250,000 and tying no new benefits to those earnings would remove about two-thirds of the shortfall, but that approach would change Social Security’s basic architecture that links taxes

 

[ScoopKona]

"Just eliminating the cap would cut Social Security’s long-run deficits in half.

An overly optimistic sentence right here.

Let's say they cut the monthly deficit in half with 24 months before depletion -- that doesn't buy us extra years of solvency. It buys us mere months. Unlike the Rolling Stones, time is decidedly not on our side.

And this assumes that they do anything at all. They've had 40 years to fix this and they've only made things worse. And their reward for admitting there is a problem and trying to do something about it is they will lose their jobs. Because the electorate largely has no idea this is coming.

 

[Tia]

An overly optimistic sentence right here.

Let's say they cut the monthly deficit in half with 24 months before depletion -- that doesn't buy us extra years of solvency. It buys us mere months. Unlike the Rolling Stones, time is decidedly not on our side.

And this assumes that they do anything at all. They've had 40 years to fix this and they've only made things worse. And their reward for admitting there is a problem and trying to do something about it is they will lose their jobs. Because the electorate largely has no idea this is coming.

40 years and Congress has kicked the can , they are broken. When they passed the WEP Windfall elimination penalty last January it sure didn't help solvency. People like an inlaw of mine will be able to collect off his wife now, he retired at 55 and would not have been eligible before but now will be.

 

[Rjbeach2003]

A couple things, with all the deportations we have fewer undocumented workers paying in, who won't be able to withdraw. But the biggest thing, besides the increased longevity in the US, is that people who earn probably the most, pay the smallest percentage of their income. I was self employed for 45 years and paid self employment tax which is nearly double basic social security. About 10% of income earners pay nothing past $176,000 in income. Just raise the cap and problem essentially solved.

 

[ScoopKona]

Just raise the cap and problem essentially solved.

There's 14 pages of why this isn't the case anymore. It would have bought us years, even decades, if implemented in the 1980s-1990s when there weren't 70 million people drawing benefits.

Today? Not so much.

I urge people who think they'll live another five years to put a plan-B in place.

 

[TolmiePeak]

Just raise the cap and problem essentially solved.

It is far too late for that to solve the problem. Most likely scenario is that Congress fails to act and that automatic cuts kick in.