Summit area of Mauna Loa volcano closed because of increased seismic activity

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From the news tonight.

 

[DianeG]

The map of Mauna Loa’s historical flow response times over the last 200 years:

 

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From the news.

 

[ScoopKona]

 

[VacationForever]

What does it mean for the timeshare resorts on the Big Island?

 

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What does it mean for the timeshare resorts on the Big Island?

There are probably a few that could be affected.

 

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What's your bug out plan if the wheel stops and it's coming your way? Do you have a place picked out that you are going to go to?

 

[ScoopKona]

What's your bug out plan if the wheel stops and it's coming your way? Do you have a place picked out that you are going to go to?

My bug-out bag and supplies are already packed and in the truck. I have three different plans depending. Everyone has been briefed.

Since my farm topographically is like a hand holding a basketball -- with channels on either side for the lava to go -- the chances that I'm [censored] are close to zero. Not precisely zero. But close enough. I'm much more worried about being cut off in both directions (a 1950-style eruption.) I think that is my worst-case scenario.

Ideally, the lava flows someplace where nobody lives. That's what I'm rooting for.

 

[slip]

My bug-out bag and supplies are already packed and in the truck. I have three different plans depending. Everyone has been briefed.

Since my farm topographically is like a hand holding a basketball -- with channels on either side for the lava to go -- the chances that I'm [censored] are close to zero. Not precisely zero. But close enough. I'm much more worried about being cut off in both directions (a 1950-style eruption.) I think that is my worst-case scenario.

Ideally, the lava flows someplace where nobody lives. That's what I'm rooting for.

I was thinking being cutoff would be the highest possibility. We have the same issue here during floods. There are a fee places where water goes over the road and we will be cutoff but that would be temporary.

Floods are bad enough but don't mess with Madame Pele.

 

[ScoopKona]

I was thinking being cutoff would be the highest possibility. We have the same issue here during floods. There are a fee places where water goes over the road and we will be cutoff but that would be temporary.

Floods are bad enough but don't mess with Madam Pele.

There are deep, deep, deep ravines on either side of me. And I'm on a "hump."

Pele doesn't beat gravity. Now, if she decides to send a flow that completely inundates both ravines, yeah, I'm [censored]. But there has never been an eruption like that in history -- even prehistoric flows.

Worst case? Things go sideways, FAST. And I'm cut off with no power, no water, and no way of getting away except by boat. I'm OK if that happens. I have plenty of water, plenty of catchment. I can live without power (I'll just burn wood to cook and boil.) And I have enough food growing here to keep me alive in perpetuity.

 

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This article was just updated. No big changes but it explains the warning system.

USGS is monitoring Mauna Loa closely. Here’s how their color-coded advisory system works

There are still no signs of an imminent eruption on Mauna Loa, but nearby communities are being warned to get ready.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

 

[DianeG]

Recent interview with Dr. Tina Neal, with a very good explanation:

What to know about Hawaii's Mauna Loa volcano | The ground is shaking and swelling at Mauna Loa, the largest active volcano in the world, indicating that it could erupt. Scientists say they don't... | By AP | Facebook

The ground is shaking and swelling at Mauna Loa, the largest active volcano in the world, indicating that it could erupt. Scientists say they don't...

fb.watch

 

[daventrina]

Anyone that wants up to date accurate local information should subscribe to this YouTube channel:

https://www.youtube.com/c/HawaiiPODD

 

[daventrina]

Here is this weeks analysis of both Maunaloa and Kīlauea:

Usually posted weekly Thursday evenings at 5 HST.
Any significant changes are announced and explained as they happen.

 

[daventrina]

Here is this weeks analysis of both Maunaloa and Kīlauea:
... In summary....
"Maunaloa earthquakes remain steady, though still elevated above the early September background, as the volcano continues to adjust to the newly infilling magma. We review the available monitoring data and reports available courtesy of the USGS-HVO, including Volcano Watch articles on expected aftershocks after last month's 5.0 under Pāhala and InSAR measurements of volcanoes and its challenges. While Maunaloa's Yellow/Advisory alert level has not changed since July 2019, tilt signals indicating shallow magma filling were detected for the first time in March 2021, then in August 2022, and most recently this past September, justifying the increased monitoring, preparation and community outreach. A visual inspection tour of Maunaloa's summit and upper rifts completes the first segment of our broadcast, before we pause for our first discussion of live viewer questions.

On Kīlauea, visitors continue to enjoy great viewing of the persistent lava lake within Halemaʻumaʻu, though still without any bonus ooze-up flows over the past week. Monitoring data continues to show the activity restricted to the summit area and the Upper East Rift Connector within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, still without any increased threat to people. Gas emissions remain the primary hazard for downwind communities, and this week the USGS-HVO shares a video of scientists making gas measurements offering insight into the process, and views of the closed road on the western side of Kaluapele, or Kīlauea caldera, as well as aerials of the eruption. Once again we share lava viewing highlights courtesy of Two Pineapples before considering Kīlauea's monitoring data.

Unusually, the lava volume within Halemaʻumaʻu crater over the last month has only increased very slightly, suggesting a different dynamic within the volcano perhaps related to the September 20 intrusion and the October 13 Pāhala earthquakes. The result is less lava reaching the crusted lake, but it is still enough to continue filling beneath and uplifting the crater floor. We consider the possible implications, before revisiting the much-asked question of the connection between Kīlauea and Maunaloa volcanos. "

 

[daventrina]

There are probably a few that could be affected.

Not likely. The next eruption, historically is expected to be contained in (or mostly within) the caldera. The following eruption, based on historical and current data, would be expected to be on the SW rift zone. Flows can't get to Kona as there is an 8000 foot tall volcano in the way. While possible, it is extremely unlikely a flow would reach Waikoloa and if it did it would take many days more likely weeks not hours.

 

[daventrina]

There are probably a few that could be affected.

Not likely. The next eruption, historically is expected to be contained in (or mostly within) the caldera. The following eruption, based on historical and current data, would be expected to be on the SW rift zone. Flows can't get to Kona as there is an 8000 foot tall volcano in the way. While possible, it is extremely unlikely a flow would reach Waikoloa and if it did it would take many days more likely weeks not hours.
[
QUOTE="DaveNV, post: 2854867, member: 12565"]
So what's the current consensus? Is Mauna Loa getting ready to erupt?
Dave
[/QUOTE]
The current consensus is yes according to historical and current data Maunaloa is getting ready erupt sometime in the next few months to several years ... The volcano continues to fill with magma. Still short a 6.0ish earthquake to trigger it and after that an eruption would not likely be immediate more likely month.

Or

She could go back to sleep...

 

[daventrina]

I believe this video explains the interaction between the flank earthquakes and the filling process.
"We continue our Maunaloa coverage, reviewing last week's flank earthquakes highlighed by two events with magnitudes of 5.0 and 4.6 at moderate depths under Pāhala, and placing them in spatial context relative to the other areas of earthquake activity. Summit seismicity is still elevated with another small swarm occurring today, suggesting magma is still filling, perhaps stimulated by the flank activity which continues at low levels. ... We also dig into the potential significance of flank earthquakes based on models and examine their pattern in the year-long build-up to the 1975 summit eruption, which is one analogue for the current unrest given the mountain's 25-year repose since its previous activity. It has been 38 years since Maunaloa's most recent eruption, the longest gap in the last 200 years of recorded history. "

 

[daventrina]

Here is the USGS community update meeting. Unsensationalized like the news outlets.

 

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Here is the USGS community update meeting. Unsensationalized like the news outlets.

I actually thought the news here in Hawaii has been doing a pretty good job with not sensationalising the information. Most of the geologists I have heard, all have said they have no way of predicting where the flow will go, if it even erupts.

 

[JIMMYDAMA]

What does it mean for the timeshare resorts on the Big Island?

Hi we are here at Kingsland no one is even taking about it. We drove by on Saddle road yesterday, just signs concerning a High Fire Probability

 

[DianeG]

Anyone that wants up to date accurate local information should subscribe to this YouTube channel:

https://www.youtube.com/c/HawaiiPODD

These guys are the best!! They do a super job of explaining the science, and they were the most accurate (and sensible) source of info for me during the 2018 eruption. Thanks for posting this, I didn’t know that they had a YouTube channel (I’ve been following them on FB.)