Summit area of Mauna Loa volcano closed because of increased seismic activity

[PigsDad]

For those traveling to the Big Island soon:

Summit area of Mauna Loa volcano closed because of increased seismic activity

Elevated seismic activity has caused Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park to close the Mauna Loa summit backcountry until further notice, the park announced this week.

www.cnn.com

Kurt

 

[DaveNV]

Really interesting. They say there is no sign of imminent eruption, but an earlier article I read said this increase in earthquakes led to the previous eruption awhile later. They've increased over the Summer to as many as 100 earthquakes a day. Sure sounds to me like Pele is getting ready to do something. This will bear watching.

Dave

 

[slip]

Really interesting. They say there is no sign of imminent eruption, but an earlier article I read said this increase in earthquakes led to the previous eruption awhile later. They've increased over the Summer to as many as 100 earthquakes a day. Sure sounds to me like Pele is getting ready to do something. This will bear watching.

Dave

I heard this on the news last week. It was like they were going out of their way to say something is going to happen, without saying something is going to happen.

That's certainly a lot of activity and something to keep a close eye on.

 

[ScoopKona]

I heard this on the news last week. It was like they were going out of their way to say something is going to happen, without saying something is going to happen.

If they promise an eruption is coming "any day now," they will lose the public's trust. The average person expects scientists to be infallible. If a prediction doesn't come true, they will then gainsay everything they hear in perpetuity.

See the Covid forum for examples of this.

As for an actual eruption -- find a spinner from a game of "Twister." That's where the lava will flow. Mauna Loa has always been the most unpredictable in this regard. Last time it headed in the direction of Hilo. This time? Could be Kailua or Captain Cook or Oceanview.

 

[slip]

This was just on the news today.

 

[daviator]

We are going to be on the Big Island next month and have a couple of nights planned in the Volcano House, so will be following this news closely. I think the hotel itself is in a location that should be safe due to topography, but I suppose an eruption that goes in the "wrong" direction might cut off road access from one direction or the other. An eruption would be exciting to see but I'm not sure I need that kind of excitement, lol...

 

[slip]

We are going to be on the Big Island next month and have a couple of nights planned in the Volcano House, so will be following this news closely. I think the hotel itself is in a location that should be safe due to topography, but I suppose an eruption that goes in the "wrong" direction might cut off road access from one direction or the other. An eruption would be exciting to see but I'm not sure I need that kind of excitement, lol...

We are going in May and I'll be watching for updates.

 

[BJRSanDiego]

We are going to be on the Big Island next month and have a couple of nights planned in the Volcano House, so will be following this news closely. I think the hotel itself is in a location that should be safe due to topography, but I suppose an eruption that goes in the "wrong" direction might cut off road access from one direction or the other. An eruption would be exciting to see but I'm not sure I need that kind of excitement, lol...

Mauna Loa is (as the crow flies) about 20 miles from Kilauea. Because of the mountains and valleys, by car it is 72 miles. So, I think that you're pretty safe

Mauna Loa Observatory to Volcano House

www.google.com

 

[ScoopKona]

On the plus side, if there is an eruption and you choose to visit anyway, you'll have all but the affected area to yourself.

Here's the last couple hundred years worth of lava flow.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

The figure below shows that general "footprint" of each of the five volcanoes on the Big Island. (Kohala, Mauna Kea, Hualalai, Mauna Loa, and Kilauea). If Mauna Loa erupts, the lava flow will be within the areas outlined for ML. Hawaii volcanoes have fracture zones that extend radially downward from the summit, and eruptions occur along the fracture zone. Chain of Craters Road in Volcanoes NP generally follows the SE fracture zone of Kilauea - the chain of craters are the craters that have formed along the fracture zone.

Generally, when a volcano moves in an eruptive phase while the volcano is still in its active building stage (as Mauna Loa is), when there is activity at the summit there will be activity along a rift zone. There can also be activity along a rift zone without activity at the summit. If ML activity is on the eastern rift zone, it's most likely the flow will move toward Hilo. Note how Mauna Kea and Kilauea has pinched down the eastern flank of ML, which would funnel east flank flows toward Hilo. Similarly, to the northwest, Hualalai will funnel lava flows to the northwest toward the coastal areas north of Kona.

 

[slip]

This one was just released. Even with the increased seismic activity, it is currently about 4 times less than the last time it erupted.

 

[slip]

The figure below shows that general "footprint" of each of the five volcanoes on the Big Island. (Kohala, Mauna Kea, Hualalai, Mauna Loa, and Kilauea). If Mauna Loa erupts, the lava flow will be within the areas outlined for ML. Hawaii volcanoes have fracture zones that extend radially downward from the summit, and eruptions occur along the fracture zone. Chain of Craters Road in Volcanoes NP generally follows the SE fracture zone of Kilauea - the chain of craters are the craters that have formed along the fracture zone.

Generally, when a volcano moves in an eruptive phase while the volcano is still in its active building stage (as Mauna Loa is), when there is activity at the summit there will be activity along a rift zone. There can also be activity along a rift zone without activity at the summit. If ML activity is on the eastern rift zone, it's most likely the flow will move toward Hilo. Note how Mauna Kea and Kilauea has pinched down the eastern flank of ML, which would funnel east flank flows toward Hilo. Similarly, to the northwest, Hualalai will funnel lava flows to the northwest toward the coastal areas north of Kona.

View attachment 66456

In 1984 it went towards Hilo. The last Southwest flow was 1950.

 

[ScoopKona]

Double Earthquake 15 minutes ago. Shook the house.

 

[slip]

Double Earthquake 15 minutes ago. Shook the house.

Looks like it was a 4.9.

 

[ScoopKona]

Nope -- it was a double. They just updated it. In addition, there were five more minor quakes. I felt a couple of those, too.

You have to give USGS time to process the data.

 

[ScoopKona]

 

[slip]

View attachment 66528

I only posted what was available at the time. News outlet reported the same. It's been way more than doubles for a while now there were a few 2.8 and 2.9 earlier this morning.
I'm not an earthquake expert but it sounds like you can feel them around 3.0.

2 quakes rattle Hawaii Island, prompt preparedness message as Mauna Loa unrest continues

Two large quakes shook Hawaii Island on Friday morning.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

 

[slip]

This shows 5 today from 5am to 9:30am

 

[ScoopKona]

Another earthquake just seconds ago. Probably 4-ish. It'll be up on the USGS board in 10 minutes or so.

 

[DeniseM]

I like this simple graphic showing the location of the Big Island volcanoes:

 

[slip]

Another earthquake just seconds ago. Probably 4-ish. It'll be up on the USGS board in 10 minutes or so.

It's there now, 3.7.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

The figure below shows that general "footprint" of each of the five volcanoes on the Big Island. (Kohala, Mauna Kea, Hualalai, Mauna Loa, and Kilauea). If Mauna Loa erupts, the lava flow will be within the areas outlined for ML. Hawaii volcanoes have fracture zones that extend radially downward from the summit, and eruptions occur along the fracture zone. Chain of Craters Road in Volcanoes NP generally follows the SE fracture zone of Kilauea - the chain of craters are the craters that have formed along the fracture zone.

Generally, when a volcano moves in an eruptive phase while the volcano is still in its active building stage (as Mauna Loa is), when there is activity at the summit there will be activity along a rift zone. There can also be activity along a rift zone without activity at the summit. If ML activity is on the eastern rift zone, it's most likely the flow will move toward Hilo. Note how Mauna Kea and Kilauea has pinched down the eastern flank of ML, which would funnel east flank flows toward Hilo. Similarly, to the northwest, Hualalai will funnel lava flows to the northwest toward the coastal areas north of Kona.

View attachment 66456

Just to keep everybody happy, the northwest lava flow funnels into waikioloa. . .

 

[DaveNV]

So what's the current consensus? Is Mauna Loa getting ready to erupt?

Dave

 

[DeniseM]

The definitive answer is: They don't know!

 

[ScoopKona]

So what's the current consensus? Is Mauna Loa getting ready to erupt?

The USGS won't make that call unless they're certain. Things are "elevated" right now. Yellow-alert. And the usual, "It's always good to have a plan, and a go-bag."

It hasn't erupted since 1984 -- the longest it's gone since we started recording eruptions. I am absolutely not saying that it is "due" to erupt. That's superstitious nonsense. Signs currently point to higher chances of an eruption in the near future. And if that happens, spin the Twister spinner, because Mauna Loa is the least-predictable when it comes to lava flow.