This is what I've read on message boards from people in the industry plus those who invest in oil or gas:
Over a year ago, these people were saying that the current rise in prices (prior to the Ukraine invasion) was expected to be up to around $100 per barrel of crude by now. Part of that was due to expected demand increase coming out of the pandemic, and part because some of the domestic production being shut down during the pandemic crude price plunge would not be started up due to bankruptcies, or just kept closed down to limit supply and jack up the price. Then there's the ramp up to summer blends and summer demand.
However, the Ukraine invasion has prevented what may have been a price pullback around the $100 level, and the uncertainty and less supply coming out of Russia has popped it to $115 already. On top of this, Saudi Arabia has also withheld supply to get prices higher while this demand returned, and sounds unlikely to want to increase their output anytime soon.
The people I follow are now saying they expect prices to get to $185-200 per barrel within this year, if international conditions stay as they are. Any further boycott of Russia or worse war situations could aggravate that more.
A partial countervaling measure may be a new Iranian nuke deal in the works, after which sanctions blocking their oil supply output now would be eased. This could happen over the next month.
Sounds like we need to be prepared for even higher prices, regardless.
Costco gas always seems cheaper, and in the SF Bay Area and Tahoe, if you shop for groceries at Safeway or Raleys you can get rebates of from 10c to 50c per gallon at their gas stations based on your amount of grocery spending.
A little less driving by all might be in order here, and I hope this spurs people away from those monster pickups and back to smaller cars, hybrids, and EVs. It is another reason to extend work from home more permanently too - that saves gas from less commuting, especially in large urban areas. This price increase is all going to look so petty in 10-20 years when people find out how real the effects of climate change are going to be, and how unexpectedly fast it's coming, IMO.