I have made great use of the trade for points option for many years, and once I got to 6 weeks always traded 2 a year for 220,000 pts - and still do as the MF on those weeks is below $900. We take a fancy European trip, business class and Cat 6+ hotel, every other year so net out at about 440,000 pts to replace what we've used. Still works for us as I always have 4 TS weeks to use (more with split lockoffs).
'Earning' 220,000 pts a year otherwise is pretty tough to do and you can only buy up to 100,000 a couple. Other than the VISA card you need to stay in a $200 a night hotel 55 nights a year to
earn 110,000 pts (not counting elite bonus pts). I forecast you'll see a huge increase in the purchase price of MR points in the near future ... even though it went up a couple of years ago. BTW as a single I can only buy 50,000 a year so that route isn't very appealing to me.
Other than having the direct benefit of being able to trade for points due to illness or whatever, when the MF + fee gets to equal the $0.0125 per point I'll probably stop trading for points - so I agree Marriott has to look at the number of points you get for trading in your weeks but because that's fixed in the deeds I doubt any change will be made. For new buyers in a tough economy I think you'll see increasing up-front incentives to buy these days, perhaps like they were back in 2000-2001 when I bought my last 2 week (about $17000 each incl 500,000+ pts).
The airlines have raised FF mile requirements and Marriott has raised the number of points required for air+hotel pkgs -- but it's still a good deal for those who can participate and know how to do it especially if they use them EOY for very special trips incl business class flights. Admittedly, it's getting tougher...but I have great confidence that Marriott will adapt in some way to protect their interests. Hey...I've gained 100% in my MAR stock since March, so not all is bleak.
Interval made a dumb move this last year stopping bonus weeks AC's for Manor Club - so for the first time they didn't get any of my weeks on trade, and it appears that I'm not alone as I don't see any MMC weeks available all summer for the first time ever...I'm using 2 of my 3 this year while the 3rd went for MR points.
Brian