Recent ROFR activity

[GregT]

There aren't any conclusions here because the dataset is so small, but this is what appears to have been ROFR'd:

1) Annual (high-quality) weeks
2) ROFR-metric of 23% or lower
3) Weeks where the Trust isn't tremendously deep (hard to define)
4) U.S. weeks without RTU (not Aruba/Phuket/Custom House)

January 2014 Update:

Earlier in this thread has data from previous periods -- I was curious to see what had happened in the second half of 2013. There is a little overlap with my earlier results, which were through August 10, 2013.

But....there were 48 ROFR transactions reported in Dioxide's database from July 1, 2013 through December 31, 2013.

Of those 48 reports, there were 30 that passed and 18 that failed.

Units that passed ROFR (30 units):

17 of the 30 weeks are Platinum weeks (11 Annual, 6 EOY).
1 of the 17 Platinum Weeks is a Custom House, which is not in the Trust
2 of the 17 Platinum Weeks are Aruba Surf, which is not in the Trust
1 of the 17 Platinum Weeks is a Phuket week, which is not in the Trust

So...13 weeks are most interesting to me -the 2BR Platinums that are eligible for putting into the Trust - 6 are EOY, and 7 are Annuals.

Of the 7 Annuals, 6 had a ROFR metric of 22% or higher. There is one Passed week (Beachplace Towers, for $3,050) that defies the trend.

Units that failed ROFR (18 units)

15 of the 18 weeks are Platinum weeks (14 Annual, 1 EOY)
14 of the 15 weeks had a ROFR metric less than 22% (average is 12%)

The one week with a ROFR metric > 22% is a 3BR Grande Vista, with a ROFR metric of 23%.

Although still a small data set, it affirms the trends noted previously. A major difference is that an EOY has been ROFR'd, which I had not seen before.

For the moment, a ROFR metric of 23% appears to be the price point below which a 2BR Platinum appears to be at risk of not passing ROFR. And ROFR metrics below 15% are almost certain to be ROFR'd.

ROFR metric computed as: Purchase Price divided by (Legacy Points value times $10)

Interesting stuff.

Best,

Greg

 

[dioxide45]

Thanks for the continued analysis. Definitely interesting to see what levels ROFR seems to be trending at. Even though we have seen some ROFR activity on EOY weeks, it still doesn't seem to be their most desirable weeks to exercise on.

 

[kds4]

January 2014 Update:

Earlier in this thread has data from previous periods -- I was curious to see what had happened in the second half of 2013. There is a little overlap with my earlier results, which were through August 10, 2013.

But....there were 48 ROFR transactions reported in Dioxide's database from July 1, 2013 through December 31, 2013.

Of those 48 reports, there were 30 that passed and 18 that failed.

Units that passed ROFR (30 units):

17 of the 30 weeks are Platinum weeks (11 Annual, 6 EOY).
1 of the 17 Platinum Weeks is a Custom House, which is not in the Trust
2 of the 17 Platinum Weeks are Aruba Surf, which is not in the Trust
1 of the 17 Platinum Weeks is a Phuket week, which is not in the Trust

So...13 weeks are most interesting to me -the 2BR Platinums that are eligible for putting into the Trust - 6 are EOY, and 7 are Annuals.

Of the 7 Annuals, 6 had a ROFR metric of 22% or higher. There is one Passed week (Beachplace Towers, for $3,050) that defies the trend.

Units that failed ROFR (18 units)

15 of the 18 weeks are Platinum weeks (14 Annual, 1 EOY)
14 of the 15 weeks had a ROFR metric less than 22% (average is 12%)

The one week with a ROFR metric > 22% is a 3BR Grande Vista, with a ROFR metric of 23%.

Although still a small data set, it affirms the trends noted previously. A major difference is that an EOY has been ROFR'd, which I had not seen before.

For the moment, a ROFR metric of 23% appears to be the price point below which a 2BR Platinum appears to be at risk of not passing ROFR. And ROFR metrics below 15% are almost certain to be ROFR'd.

ROFR metric computed as: Purchase Price divided by (Legacy Points value times $10)

Interesting stuff.

Best,

Greg





Of those

This is interesting. Where can you find out the points conversion value of legacy weeks?

 

[Fasttr]

This is interesting. Where can you find out the points conversion value of legacy weeks?

I believe that info can be found via the tripod link at the bottom of GregT's posts.

 

[dioxide45]

This is interesting. Where can you find out the points conversion value of legacy weeks?

I believe that info can be found via the tripod link at the bottom of GregT's posts.

The thing is, there are really three sets of numbers.

1) There is the one number that Marriott assigns for conversion of legacy weeks to points. When you convert your week to points, it is the number of DC points Marriott gives you. This is what is available at the link on the Tripod site. There is also a link on VPE.

2) Then there is a number that Marriott uses when conveying weeks to the trust. This number isn't exactly the same as the amount that they give for election of weeks to points.

3) There is also an average points allocated that Dan put together, I don't have a link to that. It was the average of all weeks in a season that DanCali put together.

Either way, the numbers in 1 and 2 are not that far apart and 3 is just an average of number 1. So no matter what number is used, the ROFR Metric that Greg came up with wouldn't be statistically different.

 

[GregT]

Dioxide,

I like the new Avatar. Is the pyramid erupting?

Best,

Greg

 

[dioxide45]

Dioxide,

I like the new Avatar. Is the pyramid erupting?

Best,

Greg

Thanks. It kind of looks like it, doesn't it. Never noticed that before. It is Chichen Itza. We went there back in 2011 when we went to Cancun. Returning again this year in May. What looks to be an eruption is just the tree in the foreground.

The part we like about the photo is that surprisingly, there are no people in front of it. Getting a photo of El Castillo without a human standing in the way is not an easy feat. The crowds, and heat, make it difficult. There is always someone in the way, and because of the heat you don't want to wait around long for people to move. If someone does move, there is certainly someone else ready to get in the way without even knowing it.

 

[GregT]

Thanks. It kind of looks like it, doesn't it. Never noticed that before. It is Chichen Itza. We went there back in 2011 when we went to Cancun. Returning again this year in May. What looks to be an eruption is just the tree in the foreground.

The part we like about the photo is that surprisingly, there are no people in front of it. Getting a photo of El Castillo without a human standing in the way is not an easy feat. The crowds, and heat, make it difficult. There is always someone in the way, and because of the heat you don't want to wait around long for people to move. If someone does move, there is certainly someone else ready to get in the way without even knowing it.

That is a great picture -- I'd not focused on the lack of people, very interesting picture indeed. We went to Chaccoben, near Costa Maya last year and it was very impressive too.

Best,

Greg

 

[dioxide45]

That is a great picture -- I'd not focused on the lack of people, very interesting picture indeed. We went to Chaccoben, near Costa Maya last year and it was very impressive too.

Best,

Greg

We went to Chacchoben while on a cruise several years ago, I believe also in Costa Maya. It was the first of Mayan Ruins that we visited. Out in the middle of the jungle, very hot and lots of mosquitoes. We were lucky and remembered our bug spray. Everyone else was swatting away mosquitoes all day while they didn't bother us at all.

 

[DCBoy]

Just curious. Why wouldn't Marriott be interested in buying back or exercising its ROFR on a week at a RTU property?

 

[Fasttr]

Just curious. Why wouldn't Marriott be interested in buying back or exercising its ROFR on a week at a RTU property?

I assume its because MVC doesn't have a nice clear home for it. Since they are no longer selling weeks, and the RTU's can't reside in the Trust, they would have to have an additional permanent home for such weeks, so such weeks could still be part of the MVC Exchange. That said, I don't think they have an appitite for owning such inventory at this point in time.

 

[m61376]

Just curious. Why wouldn't Marriott be interested in buying back or exercising its ROFR on a week at a RTU property?

I think it's because they can only sell it as a Marriott resale week, and they aren't really in the week market anymore. Since they can't be put into the trust, they can't be sold as points.

Buying weeks to be placed in the exchange doesn't make financial sense. They're only going to outlay money for weeks that they can get a substantial return on their investment for.

 

[kjd]

Just got notified that Marriott resales is interested in selling my plat EOY. It had been on a wait list to be sold. Is this a sign that Marriott has buyers for EOYs? If there is a demand for EOYs will there be more ROFRs than in the past?

I believe that the market for EOYs will be stronger as maintenance fees increase year after year. With an EOY lockoff you can trade into a unit every year for only one half of the maintenance fees. Particularly if you trade the studio during flextime. This is appealing to some buyers who balk at the high cost of timeshare ownership.

 

[Saintsfanfl]

Just got notified that Marriott resales is interested in selling my plat EOY. It had been on a wait list to be sold. Is this a sign that Marriott has buyers for EOYs? If there is a demand for EOYs will there be more ROFRs than in the past?

I believe that the market for EOYs will be stronger as maintenance fees increase year after year. With an EOY lockoff you can trade into a unit every year for only one half of the maintenance fees. Particularly if you trade the studio during flextime. This is appealing to some buyers who balk at the high cost of timeshare ownership.

There are two types of deals. One is Marriott makes a direct purchase, or ROFR, and adds the week into the trust. The other is Marriott acts as the broker for a resale purchase. Marriott does not buy or ROFR any weeks that they then turn around and resell. If Marriott is interested in brokering your EOY week it is because the demand is there. There are plenty of EOY's listed for sale by the resale department.

Marriott previously was not buying back or ROFR'ing EOY's but that has changed. They have been taking EOY's for the trust.

 

[SMB1]

All,

I've heard from different brokers that Marriott has significantly increased its ROFR activity. Dioxide's database has 31 entries since June 1, 2013, and 13 of them are failed transactions. 2013 in general has a much higher ROFR pace than previous years (which is not unexpected) but I thought almost 50% failed transactions was higher than I expected.

Interesting -- I'm still in limbo at the moment on my Trust Points transaction because the BK Trustee is slow, and Marriott hasn't provided the estoppel information yet so I can confirm the Trust Points are free and clear. I'm very curious to proceed with this transaction, but continue to assess the landscape in case this package is not free and clear and I have to try again.

Will keep TUGgers apprised.

Best,

Greg

Greg,
Perhaps I missed it in another thread, but what is the status on your purchase of resale points? I'm very interested in the outcome. Thanks for being our guinea pig.

 

[LilMsFoodie]

I had two EOY Grande Vista gold weeks that have sold through Marriott's resale department in two weeks. The second one is for 2016 as I had already elected points and then sold them when we decided we no longer wanted to spend time in timeshares. Last year we had time in Crystal shores and Oceana Palms, both ocean front, but really would prefer a real resort setting in the future. I took Marriott up on their offer to list them not wanting the hassle of selling myself. I am shocked the 2016 use week sold almost as fast as the 2015 one.

Thanks to everyone on this site, particularly you Greg and Dioxide and Sue. Now I just have to use up the rewards points and I will finished with Marriott.

Greg, I will give a plug for your points exchange. I used it to both buy points and sell them, the last sale occurring in January 2014. Points were sold in a day and covered the annual fee and exchange fee...the most anyone could really hope for. Thanks Greg.

 

[Saintsfanfl]

The resale department has been very active in selling weeks. I have two in process right now that are selling at list around $26k total that I only paid $4,500 for a year ago. I did not really want to sell them but I couldn't pass up on taking the almost 250% ROI profit.

Weeks directly through Marriott are still a great buy for some people compared to buying points. The points needed to book the weeks for that $26K purchase would cost more than $100K and almost double the maintenance fees.

 

[GregT]

Greg,
Perhaps I missed it in another thread, but what is the status on your purchase of resale points? I'm very interested in the outcome. Thanks for being our guinea pig.

Happy to help -- please see this link.

LilMs, thank you for the comments, I am so happy that the site was useful!

Best,

Greg

 

[SMB1]

Happy to help -- please see this link.

LilMs, thank you for the comments, I am so happy that the site was useful!

Best,

Greg

Very interesting. Thank you.