Oct. 18: Now that Hawaii is open, it's time for the NEW AND IMPROVED COVID-19 poll and discussion thread.

[DeniseM]

PLEASE VOTE IN THE POLL ABOVE

Now that Hawaii has actually opened, I'm starting a NEW thread for continuing C-19/Hawaii discussions. This is the place for friendly conversations, diplomatatic debates, and genteel discourse. It is not the place for contentious social/political opinions - please stay on topic!

 

[csodjd]

I said 2022. It's going to take more than JUST a vaccine being available. At a minimum, it will take a vaccine that is widely adopted and reasonably effective (70% or more?). And while we'll never see herd immunity from this kind of virus, we WILL see a significant reduction in the number of people that can catch it at any given time, between vaccines and recent (within six months) infections. Those will come together to help ensure relatively ordinary case rates well within the ability of the medical system. May even have good treatments by then. Maybe by summer of 2022 we'll see a "normal" Hawaii.

 

[MommaBear]

I said 2022. It's going to take more than JUST a vaccine being available. At a minimum, it will take a vaccine that is widely adopted and reasonably effective (70% or more?). And while we'll never see herd immunity from this kind of virus, we WILL see a significant reduction in the number of people that can catch it at any given time, between vaccines and recent (within six months) infections. Those will come together to help ensure relatively ordinary case rates well within the ability of the medical system. May even have good treatments by then. Maybe by summer of 2022 we'll see a "normal" Hawaii.

Curious where you got your information that we won't get herd immunity from the Covid vaccine.

 

[csodjd]

Curious where you got your information that we won't get herd immunity from the Covid vaccine.

It's my opinion. We don't get herd immunity from viruses that don't generate lifetime immunity. The common cold is a coronavirus. No immunity there. Indeed, we're already hearing reports of a few people being infected a second time. While it's not clear how long any protection we get will last, none of the leading scientists expect it to be long term. Of course, we can get herd immunity artificially from vaccines, but, again, they (the antibodies) have to last, and we need to achieve a very high rate of penetrance. Measles, I believe, requires 95% of the population to be vaccinated. We're a long way from that with COVID.

 

[slip]

Took a walk down to Waikiki Beach this afternoon. I walked through the International MarketPlace and took the video below. More stores are definitely open by not too many people yet. Most of the stores have a sign for the number of people allowed in at one time. Thought some people might want to see how it’s going so far.

 

[dioxide45]

It's my opinion. We don't get herd immunity from viruses that don't generate lifetime immunity. The common cold is a coronavirus. No immunity there. Indeed, we're already hearing reports of a few people being infected a second time. While it's not clear how long any protection we get will last, none of the leading scientists expect it to be long term. Of course, we can get herd immunity artificially from vaccines, but, again, they (the antibodies) have to last, and we need to achieve a very high rate of penetrance. Measles, I believe, requires 95% of the population to be vaccinated. We're a long way from that with COVID.

Actually, the common cold isn't only caused by the coronavirus. There are other viruses like influenza and rhinovirus that are the cause of the common cold. While immunity may not last forever, the common cold may actually be the cause of hundreds of viruses. We could get a cold early in the season and get another later which is caused by a completely different virus, not because of waning immunity.

Cold viruses have a lot in common, but each type has its own style, too.
Rhinovirus. This bunch is most active in early fall, spring, and summer. They cause 10%-40% of colds. You'll feel plenty miserable when you catch one, but the good news is they rarely make you seriously sick.
Coronavirus. These tend to do their dirty work in the winter and early spring. The coronavirus is the cause of about 20% of colds. There are more than 30 kinds, but only three or four affect people.
RSV and parainfluenza. These viruses cause 20% of colds. They sometimes lead to severe infections, like pneumonia, in young children.

Causes of the Common Cold

There are more than 200 viruses that can cause a common cold with 20%-30% caused by "unknown" bugs. See a list of the most common virus types that cause colds.

www.webmd.com

 

[slip]

Here’s another couple videos on the beach. It has been cloudy all weekend and it rained just as I got to Paia Fish Market.

 

[csodjd]

Actually, the common cold isn't only caused by the corona virus. There are other viruses like influenza and rhinovirus that are the cause of the common cold. While immunity may not last forever, the common cold may actually be the cause of hundreds of viruses. We could get a cold early in the season and get another later which is caused by a completely different virus, not because of waning immunity.

Cold viruses have a lot in common, but each type has its own style, too.
Rhinovirus. This bunch is most active in early fall, spring, and summer. They cause 10%-40% of colds. You'll feel plenty miserable when you catch one, but the good news is they rarely make you seriously sick.
Coronavirus. These tend to do their dirty work in the winter and early spring. The coronavirus is the cause of about 20% of colds. There are more than 30 kinds, but only three or four affect people.
RSV and parainfluenza. These viruses cause 20% of colds. They sometimes lead to severe infections, like pneumonia, in young children.

Causes of the Common Cold

There are more than 200 viruses that can cause a common cold with 20%-30% caused by "unknown" bugs. See a list of the most common virus types that cause colds.

www.webmd.com

And there's no lasting immunity to any of them. Getting into the weeds doesn't change the challenge with hoping for herd immunity as the savior from COVID. I personally think that an effective treatment is more likely to be the key to getting back to a more normal day to day life. Perhaps the antibody treatments that appear to have helped Trump and Christy and that have been so remarkably effective against things like breast cancer will be the answer. Above my pay grade. I just don't see herd immunity. Heck, I don't even see 75% of the US population being immunized, at least not for several years, if/when a vaccine is approved.

 

[slip]

Here’s some pictures from my walk. I was on the beach at about 4pm.

 

[cman]

I'm thinking 2022. Just saw an interview with Dr. Fauci where he predicted that we'd have an effective vaccine as early as November, but it wouldn't be widely available until the end of 2021.

I also like how Hawaii has handled this thing. The Governor stated his goal was to "ensure the health and safety of Hawaii's citizens". He did it. Hawaii is one of the least impacted states in the country as far as Covid is concerned. The guy also established a program that ensured that the majority of people traveling to the islands were tested in advance. They basically made Hawaii the safest state in the nation to travel to.

I don't have a dog in this fight, but if they protected their population from Covid, and made their state the safest travel destination in the country, can we give them some credit? I mean, it's about results. Seems like their doing pretty well.

 

[dioxide45]

I also like how Hawaii has handled this thing. The Governor stated his goal was to "ensure the health and safety of Hawaii's citizens". He did it. Hawaii is one of the least impacted states in the country as far as Covid is concerned. The guy also established a program that ensured that the majority of people traveling to the islands were tested in advance. They basically made Hawaii the safest state in the nation to travel to.

Its isolation makes this possible. Of course it also decimated the primary driver of its economy.

 

[Tamaradarann]

Took a walk down to Waikiki Beach this afternoon. I walked through the International MarketPlace and took the video below. More stores are definitely open by not too many people yet. Most of the stores have a sign for the number of people allowed in at one time. Thought some people might want to see how it’s going so far.

Thanks for the tour of International Market and Kalakaua. The number of people walking around looks like the early morning hours(6 AM) before it opens rather than the afternoon. I guess while they have the signs limiting the number of people at one time it is really not necessary yet since there aren't really many people shopping. That may become an additional issue with Hawaii opening up. While significant numbers may start to return to Hawaii the tourists are not doing the things that they previously were doing like doing shopping in crowded malls and major commercial areas like Kalakaua. Also, Hawaii hasn't really opened up to international tourists. I believe that the Japanese tourists really are the major buyers in the high end stores on Kalakaua and the Ala Moana Mall. I know we weren't.

 

[Tamaradarann]

I also like how Hawaii has handled this thing. The Governor stated his goal was to "ensure the health and safety of Hawaii's citizens". He did it. Hawaii is one of the least impacted states in the country as far as Covid is concerned. The guy also established a program that ensured that the majority of people traveling to the islands were tested in advance. They basically made Hawaii the safest state in the nation to travel to. I don't have a dog in this fight, but if they protected their population from Covid, and made their state the safest travel destination in the country, can we give them some credit? I mean, it's about results. Seems like their doing pretty well.
QUOTE="dioxide45, post: 2519556, member: 12397"]


Its isolation makes this possible. Of course it also decimated the primary driver of its economy.
[/QUOTE]

I agree with both of these statements. There were(are) real difficult decisions that the Governor had(has) to make. On one hand the economy has been decimated and will take a long time to return to the way it was. On the other if tourists from all over the world kept coming in large numbers to Hawaii they undoubtedly would have brought and spread the virus to overload the healthcare system that Hawaii has. One can picture people laying in hallways and streets sick and dying without the ability of getting care. That wouldn't have just been a problem for the health and safety of Hawaii's citizens, this would have been a problem for the tourists that did come and got sick. What would have been the fallout of that? What would tourists be thinking right now if that happened and could still be happening?

Since March when we left Honolulu I have been in agreement with the decision of Governor Ige to close Hawaii to tourists without a quarantine. I have been advocating the program that the Governor has implemented October 15th to reopen Hawaii to tourists since June but apparently the pre-testing of visitors before flying has not been possible. This was NOT because of Hawaii but because of the PARTNERS in the Continental United States not being able to test and produce the results of the test on a timely basis of the visitors before flying. The Governor could not control that.

 

[DannyTS]

I'm thinking 2022. Just saw an interview with Dr. Fauci where he predicted that we'd have an effective vaccine as early as November, but it wouldn't be widely available until the end of 2021.

I also like how Hawaii has handled this thing. The Governor stated his goal was to "ensure the health and safety of Hawaii's citizens". He did it. Hawaii is one of the least impacted states in the country as far as Covid is concerned. The guy also established a program that ensured that the majority of people traveling to the islands were tested in advance. They basically made Hawaii the safest state in the nation to travel to.

I don't have a dog in this fight, but if they protected their population from Covid, and made their state the safest travel destination in the country, can we give them some credit? I mean, it's about results. Seems like their doing pretty well.

The safest state to travel to? They just opened so maybe it is safe now for few days but we will have to see in a month or two if that is still true. We all remember that 6 weeks ago Hawaii had the highest growth rate in the US even if they still had lots of restrictions in place.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

It's my opinion. We don't get herd immunity from viruses that don't generate lifetime immunity. The common cold is a coronavirus. No immunity there. Indeed, we're already hearing reports of a few people being infected a second time. While it's not clear how long any protection we get will last, none of the leading scientists expect it to be long term. Of course, we can get herd immunity artificially from vaccines, but, again, they (the antibodies) have to last, and we need to achieve a very high rate of penetrance. Measles, I believe, requires 95% of the population to be vaccinated. We're a long way from that with COVID.

In all seriousness, the question is how much, and how long, any vaccine will work. If it is good for more than a year, that will do fine.

Why? Just add the COVID vaccine to the annual flu shot. That may not give us "herd immunity", but should reduce later pandemics.

 

[csodjd]

In all seriousness, the question is how much, and how long, any vaccine will work. If it is good for more than a year, that will do fine.

Why? Just add the COVID vaccine to the annual flu shot. That may not give us "herd immunity", but should reduce later pandemics.

Yes, but that may oversimplify a bit. Recall that the effectiveness of the flu vaccine varies greatly from season to season as there are several strains of flu virus and they have to try and anticipate in advance how to prep the vaccine. Some years it is very effective, others not effective much at all (~10%). Given the virulence and characteristics of COVID, we really need a more certain vaccine to be able to rely upon it. If you are 70, diabetic and overweight, a 40% effective vaccine isn’t going to give you much comfort. We’ll need a few years for the COVID vaccine business to get refined, have good data, etc. In the meantime, masks appear to be a pretty good “vaccine.”

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Yes, but that may oversimplify a bit. Recall that the effectiveness of the flu vaccine varies greatly from season to season as there are several strains of flu virus and they have to try and anticipate in advance how to prep the vaccine. Some years it is very effective, others not effective much at all (~10%). Given the virulence and characteristics of COVID, we really need a more certain vaccine to be able to rely upon it. If you are 70, diabetic and overweight, a 40% effective vaccine isn’t going to give you much comfort. We’ll need a few years for the COVID vaccine business to get refined, have good data, etc. In the meantime, masks appear to be a pretty good “vaccine.”

Yes, but consider, COVID will mutate, but it seems to mutate at a lower rate than influenza. Influenza gets lots of crossover with animal strains. COVID, not very much.

I'm merely pointing out if people take annual flu shots already, adding COVID to the mix should not be a big problem. It wouldn't be like having to add a new vaccine to the annual mix.

Perfect? Of course not, but OTOH, every little bit counts. . .

 

[csodjd]

Yes, but consider, COVID will mutate, but it seems to mutate at a lower rate than influenza. Influenza gets lots of crossover with animal strains. COVID, not very much.

I'm merely pointing out if people take annual flu shots already, adding COVID to the mix should not be a big problem. It wouldn't be like having to add a new vaccine to the annual mix.

Perfect? Of course not, but OTOH, every little bit counts. . .

Oh, and to toss in a technical challenge... the current forms of vaccine being tested require very low temperature storage (~80C I believe) to maintain their effectiveness. That limits distribution to specialized equipment and locations. Again, with time, that’s likely to change. But it will challenge and slow wide distribution initially.

All of this is just to say, it’s going to take time and patience. And we should not be trying to do it alone... there are experts around the world and they should be able to work together to get us to a finish line.

 

[cman]

Is this even legal?

2 Kauai restaurants ban tourists from dining rooms

2 Kauai restaurants ban tourists from dining rooms | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Two restaurants on the north shore of Kauai have posted social media notices that they won’t be serving visitors, who arrive through the state’s pre-arrivals testing program, in their dining rooms.

www.staradvertiser.com

 

[Jan M.]

[Redacted: This thread is for discussions about HAWAII TRAVEL - please stick to the topic.]

I'll give it another month to see how things go in Hawaii before I'm ready to think about booking anything. Even though we have vouchers from our trip to Kauai last year that are burning a whole in my pocket. Because we've been there I understand and agree with the reasons they've been so strict. While I have no concerns that our traveling in the Continental US has put anyone else at risk, at this time I wouldn't be able to say the same thing about Hawaii.

 

[lynne]

4 Tourists Arrive on Big Island Positive With COVID in 3 Days

Equates to about 1 out of 700 passengers arriving testing positive for COVID-19.

bigislandgazette.com

This does not look like a good beginning to tourism opening.

Through the weekend, a total of 9 passengers have tested positive for COVID at Big Island airports with the mandatory rapid tests on landing.

All of those passengers were then required to take a PCR test and quarantine. Of those 9, 4 were confirmed positive and 5 were false positive. The Department of Health is monitoring those positive passengers.

Contact tracing has begun to round up the passengers on United and Hawaiian who sat in the same row and two rows forward/back to quarantine and test those positive-exposed people.

A person's positivity is reported to their home zip code. So unless these positive people reside on Hawaii County, their positivity won't impact Hawaii's virus counts.

 

[klpca]

Is this even legal?

2 Kauai restaurants ban tourists from dining rooms

2 Kauai restaurants ban tourists from dining rooms | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Two restaurants on the north shore of Kauai have posted social media notices that they won’t be serving visitors, who arrive through the state’s pre-arrivals testing program, in their dining rooms.

www.staradvertiser.com

Seems extreme, but it is not like we have any intention of dining in an enclosed space while we are over there anyways so I won't let this bother me too much. Personally I am hoping to avoid people but with this kind of local sentiment it may keep us off of hiking trails - which is what I am sure they are looking for - but I just don't want to deal with angry people while traveling.

 

[wilma]

I kind of expect that within just a few years COVID-19 will be regarded as another medical/health threat that had a big deal moment then passed just like SARS, West Nile and Zika. What won't pass for years to come will be the fallout to so many people's lives.

Well, I guess if you ignore the hundreds of thousands dead and the millions infected then covid 19 would be similar to other threats.

 

[WVBaker]

[Deleted - you don't learn do you?]

 

[amy241]

The article states a couple of restaurants on Kauai are refusing to serve tourists in dining rooms:

“Saenz Ohana Breakfast in Princeville posted Friday that it would only allow visitors to order online and pick up and that only residents with local state IDs would be allowed to order, sit and eat.

“Visitors we are sorry for the inconvenience but we, as a island, are not ready for opening now,” the post said. “(Our) plan is to keep our area safe of travelers so the locals can have somewhere to feel safe eating not crowded by visitors that may or may not be COVID positive.”

2 Kauai restaurants ban tourists from dining rooms | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Two restaurants on the north shore of Kauai have posted social media notices that they won’t be serving visitors, who arrive through the state’s pre-arrivals testing program, in their dining rooms.

www.staradvertiser.com