New ARDA industry whitepaper - "Navigating the Future of Timesharing"

[pedro47]

What is the future for timeshare owners who wants to exist their timeshare ownership?

Where is this information found in this article?

 

[gravityrules]

What is the future for timeshare owners who wants to exist their timeshare ownership?

Where is this information found in this article?

You can check out anytime you like but you can never leave

 

[Arusso]

What is the future for timeshare owners who wants to exist their timeshare ownership?

Where is this information found in this article?

My experience was with graduate students before I retired. This is a reality that does not just sit well with us seniors but is a non starter with the MZers. In lunch room conversations over many subjects, the concept of vacation ownership came up one day when I got a cold call from some Exit company wanting to assist me. My conversation was overheard at the table. At the end, I said I was being solicited by a scammer to do something for thousands of dollars more than what I could do myself. One of the students inquired about the nature of the business. I had no hesitation in explaining how the TS industry works and said that my ownership was no longer of value to my family due to life style changes. One thing led to another. In short, the comment made by one of the students was telling. She said. Doesn't sound like anything I would be interested in. Too many rules and the outcome is not certain. this was echoed by every one of the 8 students at the table - half of which had spouses and 1/3 had young children at home.

So, what will the geniuses concoct in light of this reality among MZers? Remains to be seen.

PS: Moreover, how do we know if the stats we are being given are true? We don't. They come from industry and not from a neutral source. Can we trust anything coming from ARDA?

 

[TolmiePeak]

So, what will the geniuses concoct in light of this reality among MZers? Remains to be seen.

Some of us like myself don't mind raking through all of the sludge at the sewer treatment plant in hope of finding a diamond ring that got flushed down the drain.

 

[gravityrules]

In the 'Appealing to the next generation' section, on page 18 there is a picture of a young woman with a large dog ... yeah that would appeal to some younger potential owners, bring your 'best buddy' with you ... but there's few TS that allow dogs and even less that would allow a large dog!

 

[Arusso]

In the 'Appealing to the next generation' section, on page 18 there is a picture of a young woman with a large dog ... yeah that would appeal to some younger potential owners, bring your 'best buddy' with you ... but there's few TS that allow dogs and even less that would allow a large dog!

The example of bringing a pet would be appealing for some. Recognizing such would present an opportunity as well as a challenge. It clearly can be done since some hotels and hotel chains do allow it. They usually allocate a section of the property for the furry creatures.

 

[dioxide45]

My experience was with graduate students before I retired. This is a reality that does not just sit well with us seniors but is a non starter with the MZers. In lunch room conversations over many subjects, the concept of vacation ownership came up one day when I got a cold call from some Exit company wanting to assist me. My conversation was overheard at the table. At the end, I said I was being solicited by a scammer to do something for thousands of dollars more than what I could do myself. One of the students inquired about the nature of the business. I had no hesitation in explaining how the TS industry works and said that my ownership was no longer of value to my family due to life style changes. One thing led to another. In short, the comment made by one of the students was telling. She said. Doesn't sound like anything I would be interested in. Too many rules and the outcome is not certain. this was echoed by every one of the 8 students at the table - half of which had spouses and 1/3 had young children at home.

So, what will the geniuses concoct in light of this reality among MZers? Remains to be seen.

PS: Moreover, how do we know if the stats we are being given are true? We don't. They come from industry and not from a neutral source. Can we trust anything coming from ARDA?

Your statement about timeshares not being appealing to MZers (Whatever that is? I guess you mean Millennials and Gen Z?) is very anecdotal. A single person? All kinds of people make that comment about timeshares. Even boomers and GenX. It isn't like GenZ is somehow more astute to not wanting timeshares. They just don't want them now. Many boomers didn't want timeshares in their 20s and 30s either. The oldest Millennials are now getting close to 45. As they age, grow families and become stable their ideals and priorities change. They may no longer have the same ambitions or abilities to travel as GenZers do today. They seek more stability. So comparing what a Boomer or GenX wants now to what a GenZ wants now isn't even a valid comparison.

Also, with the oldest Millennials being close to 45, I can see where a lot of them may be purchasing timeshare. The bulk of those in the statistics mentioned probably skew older in that demographic, but ARDA likes to tout Millennials and GenZ when the bulk are probably older Millennials. Of that 57% statistic, it is probably more like 50% of timeshares are owned by Millennials and 7% are owned by GenZ.

Also realize that ARDA represents the industry. Many timeshare companies in the industry are public companies regulated by the SEC. If those companies rely on this information and publish it for their investors to rely on, that could cause them some issues. I don't doubt the statistic being provided, just think they should break it down more because this makes people think that a lot more GenZ are buying timeshare when they probably aren't. 10-20 years from now they will probably be the biggest demographic that is buying timeshares.

 

[trippka]

In the 'Appealing to the next generation' section, on page 18 there is a picture of a young woman with a large dog ... yeah that would appeal to some younger potential owners, bring your 'best buddy' with you ... but there's few TS that allow dogs and even less that would allow a large dog!

The Breckenridge Grand Vacations chain in Colorado allows dogs and has buildings where they are allowed. (Grand Timber Lodge, the Grand Lodge on Peak 7, the Grand Colorado on Peak 8). They cater to a lot of Colorado owners by allowing day use of the parking garage, pools/hot tubs, etc. and owners want to bring their pets with them for a winter day trip or long weekend. Many Colorado owners like to hike with their dogs, and the Breck area is great for hiking.

 

[gravityrules]

The Breckenridge Grand Vacations chain in Colorado allows dogs and has buildings where they are allowed. (Grand Timber Lodge, the Grand Lodge on Peak 7, the Grand Colorado on Peak 8). They cater to a lot of Colorado owners by allowing day use of the parking garage, pools/hot tubs, etc. and owners want to bring their pets with them for a winter day trip or long weekend. Many Colorado owners like to hike with their dogs, and the Breck area is great for hiking.

I didn't say no resorts allow dogs but it is quite uncommon. I think that picture in an industry paper is misleading (like a lot of TS advertising?) of what the current TS products offer since 98% of resorts do not allow dogs. That's a guess, that would be 30 resorts in the US total allowing dogs.

I do think that's a worthwhile 'new direction' for resorts to consider.

Only the Peak 7 and Peak 8 resorts allow owners to bring dogs (I was told GTL does not and I didn't see any when we were there earlier this month) and I believe there is a size limitation. Now whether that's enforced ...

It's a lot more common for hotel chains to allow dogs, for an extra fee of course.

I think it is an appealing perk for would be owners (only available at BGV if you're buying from the developer, same for day use).

 

[jp10558]

My experience was with graduate students before I retired. This is a reality that does not just sit well with us seniors but is a non starter with the MZers. In lunch room conversations over many subjects, the concept of vacation ownership came up one day when I got a cold call from some Exit company wanting to assist me. My conversation was overheard at the table. At the end, I said I was being solicited by a scammer to do something for thousands of dollars more than what I could do myself. One of the students inquired about the nature of the business. I had no hesitation in explaining how the TS industry works and said that my ownership was no longer of value to my family due to life style changes. One thing led to another. In short, the comment made by one of the students was telling. She said. Doesn't sound like anything I would be interested in. Too many rules and the outcome is not certain. this was echoed by every one of the 8 students at the table - half of which had spouses and 1/3 had young children at home.

I feel like you're talking about life - too many rules and the outcome is not certain. I still maintain that this idea that MZers are supposedly fine with a plethora of ever more complicated videogames, boardgames, fantasy football and more, but can't figure out TS rules just rings false. It's far more likely they just don't see value in figuring it out. Then again, many people didn't see value in figuring out their retirement accounts either - doesn't mean there isn't any there.

Also - lifestyle changes can affect houses, type of vehicle, etc - other expensive and potentially complicated to divest things. I would suggest that the same 8 students may have come away awed by TS if given the TS Salesperson spiel rather than your negative one - i.e. they knew very little going in, and were affected by the presentation.

 

[jp10558]

Agree. For the industry to move forward and grow, at least in America, it must adapt by offering product that the MZers will be willing to purchase. I cannot imagine how this newer demographic, despite their savvy use of technology, is willing to play the "points and exchange game."

I mean, I am, but like I said elsewhere, I'm towards the old end of M, and may think more like GenX IDK. I'm not really willing to play the couponing game, but there always have been those who will. I also don't really think this is a demographic trend - remember even by ARDAs numbers, the percentage in TS is 1/13 or so. This probably means 1/100 actually play the game to any extent, and IDK, something like 1/20 do it at all.

In addition, I do not believe they are interested in financial obligations that have no end for which it is impossible to budget for.

Like my other reply, I feel like this applies to houses, cars, medical - it's possible to be wrong but there in fact are reasonable budgets for TSs that work most of the time. If not, TUGers would also find it untenable.

Those MZer that I have talked to about the TS industry are not at all thrilled learning that a HOA, mostly controlled by the developer and not the "owners" have no veto power in the majority of resort systems.

But your GenX and Boomer friends are thrilled? Again, doesn't really seem age driven to me.

Of course there is more. Nevertheless, the industry must pivot and "reimagine" itself to cater to the needs of a newer generation of vacationers. Will this be done by tweaking existing products still based on the legacy platform or will an entirely new product with activities (adventures) and experiences (much like cruise ships have done) to attract a newer and younger demographic? In my mind the latter seems to be more attractive

IDK about cruise ships, but it is a model that can work. Isn't that just the AI in some resorts like the Mexico ones?

As to the Adventures - I think the issue there, and in many of these things, is those are way too specific to a given friend group. Like, I like nature, photography, light hiking. Some of my relatives like pools and hot tubs and saunas, others like watching TV, still others like crocheting, still others like playing scrabble, ping pong and pool. Some would love to play D&D, others video games, others bingo. Yet we'd all like to do things together too - there's some crossover etc. There's no way it'd be affordable to try and come up with (and attract enough to be viable) 40 different "adventures" at most resorts.

So almost by necessity, it's going to be the watered down - here's a concert, here's a tour, here's some activities centers. I'm currently at Massanutten, and I think they've probably got the best set of potential "experiences" of any I've gone to so far, but they still have to deal with the booking and cost per person for each thing. If you were going to "Include" all of the possibilities for each day you'd be looking at at least $150 a day per person.

I'd say the other problem with putting the experiences up front ahead of lodging is we've kind of seen that with the golf and ski resorts - they're working hard to overcome that stigma as that really limits who's going to want to go. You can end up with one type of owner at the resort, and that would have it's own problems we see.

 

[Arusso]

Your statement about timeshares not being appealing to MZers (Whatever that is? I guess you mean Millennials and Gen Z?) is very anecdotal. A single person? All kinds of people make that comment about timeshares. Even boomers and GenX. It isn't like GenZ is somehow more astute to not wanting timeshares. They just don't want them now. Many boomers didn't want timeshares in their 20s and 30s either. The oldest Millennials are now getting close to 45. As they age, grow families and become stable their ideals and priorities change. They may no longer have the same ambitions or abilities to travel as GenZers do today. They seek more stability. So comparing what a Boomer or GenX wants now to what a GenZ wants now isn't even a valid comparison.

Also, with the oldest Millennials being close to 45, I can see where a lot of them may be purchasing timeshare. The bulk of those in the statistics mentioned probably skew older in that demographic, but ARDA likes to tout Millennials and GenZ when the bulk are probably older Millennials. Of that 57% statistic, it is probably more like 50% of timeshares are owned by Millennials and 7% are owned by GenZ.

Also realize that ARDA represents the industry. Many timeshare companies in the industry are public companies regulated by the SEC. If those companies rely on this information and publish it for their investors to rely on, that could cause them some issues. I don't doubt the statistic being provided, just think they should break it down more because this makes people think that a lot more GenZ are buying timeshare when they probably aren't. 10-20 years from now they will probably be the biggest demographic that is buying timeshares.

Thank you. You bring up some valid points and, of course, my recounting is anecdotal. However, the group I mostly had experience (besides my own millennial urchins) are medical students and residents not the older demographic you mention. There is a ton of research that has already been conducted on the various generations that we have used as it related to education. Some of this is relevant when it comes to decision making. This has become a science unto itself with the information used by all sorts of producers to target goods and services catering to the every demographic.

Regardless, we hope everyone seeks to vacations. Vacations done right are therapeutic. Done wrong, it's worse than no vacation. Whether the vacation industry can provide product interesting to not just demographic group based on age, but culture as well, will be a challenge that they must confront or, as you note, the stock valuation will reflect the business activity. No doubt, the branded hospitality companies will rely on existing data already available as well as to commission additional specific information related to vacation ownership in order to plan for the future. Such will be available for scrutiny. I sincerely hope that the industry responds in a meaningful way with a more ethical approach than it has in the past.

 

[dioxide45]

Thank you. You bring up some valid points and, of course, my recounting is anecdotal. However, the group I mostly had experience (besides my own millennial urchins) are medical students and residents not the older demographic you mention. There is a ton of research that has already been conducted on the various generations that we have used as it related to education. Some of this is relevant when it comes to decision making. This has become a science unto itself with the information used by all sorts of producers to target goods and services catering to the every demographic.

Regardless, we hope everyone seeks to vacations. Vacations done right are therapeutic. Done wrong, it's worse than no vacation. Whether the vacation industry can provide product interesting to not just demographic group based on age, but culture as well, will be a challenge that they must confront or, as you note, the stock valuation will reflect the business activity. No doubt, the branded hospitality companies will rely on existing data already available as well as to commission additional specific information related to vacation ownership in order to plan for the future. Such will be available for scrutiny. I sincerely hope that the industry responds in a meaningful way with a more ethical approach than it has in the past.

I think my point is that what a GenZ wants today is completely different than what those same people will want 30 years from now. It may not work for them today, it probably didn't work for Boomers in their 20s and 30s either. Boomers started to buy when they mainly got into their 40s and even 50s. GenZ will likely do the same.

 

[Arusso]

I feel like you're talking about life - too many rules and the outcome is not certain. I still maintain that this idea that MZers are supposedly fine with a plethora of ever more complicated videogames, boardgames, fantasy football and more, but can't figure out TS rules just rings false. It's far more likely they just don't see value in figuring it out. Then again, many people didn't see value in figuring out their retirement accounts either - doesn't mean there isn't any there.

Also - lifestyle changes can affect houses, type of vehicle, etc - other expensive and potentially complicated to divest things. I would suggest that the same 8 students may have come away awed by TS if given the TS Salesperson spiel rather than your negative one - i.e. they knew very little going in, and were affected by the presentation.

Maybe so. The students I referred to a a mere snapshot for me to make a very limited point. Of course, a slanted presentation omitting some very relevant factual information is disingenuous. The life factors you mention are all relevant and the business savvy consultants and executives employed or contracted by the developers to construct new product will surely incorporate it all. Good discussion !

 

[Arusso]

I mean, I am, but like I said elsewhere, I'm towards the old end of M, and may think more like GenX IDK. I'm not really willing to play the couponing game, but there always have been those who will. I also don't really think this is a demographic trend - remember even by ARDAs numbers, the percentage in TS is 1/13 or so. This probably means 1/100 actually play the game to any extent, and IDK, something like 1/20 do it at all.

Like my other reply, I feel like this applies to houses, cars, medical - it's possible to be wrong but there in fact are reasonable budgets for TSs that work most of the time. If not, TUGers would also find it untenable.

But your GenX and Boomer friends are thrilled? Again, doesn't really seem age driven to me.

IDK about cruise ships, but it is a model that can work. Isn't that just the AI in some resorts like the Mexico ones?

As to the Adventures - I think the issue there, and in many of these things, is those are way too specific to a given friend group. Like, I like nature, photography, light hiking. Some of my relatives like pools and hot tubs and saunas, others like watching TV, still others like crocheting, still others like playing scrabble, ping pong and pool. Some would love to play D&D, others video games, others bingo. Yet we'd all like to do things together too - there's some crossover etc. There's no way it'd be affordable to try and come up with (and attract enough to be viable) 40 different "adventures" at most resorts.

So almost by necessity, it's going to be the watered down - here's a concert, here's a tour, here's some activities centers. I'm currently at Massanutten, and I think they've probably got the best set of potential "experiences" of any I've gone to so far, but they still have to deal with the booking and cost per person for each thing. If you were going to "Include" all of the possibilities for each day you'd be looking at at least $150 a day per person.

I'd say the other problem with putting the experiences up front ahead of lodging is we've kind of seen that with the golf and ski resorts - they're working hard to overcome that stigma as that really limits who's going to want to go. You can end up with one type of owner at the resort, and that would have it's own problems we see.

Agree. BTW, my wife and I exchanged into Massanutten Summit 3 years ago in July to celebrate my retirement from 4 decades of clinical and academic medicine. COVID restrictions were lifted and the resort was full swing. All that you mentioned to do is possible. For variety, amenities and just natural beauty for an inland resort, it's hard to beat. Before that, the last time we visited as a family was circa 1995 during a swing of central VA to check out historical sites. We were much younger and then and enjoyed all the outdoor activities. Harrisonburg looked like a sleepy town back then. No longer the case. Great eateries a short drive away. Enjoy your stay !

 

[jp10558]

Agree. BTW, my wife and I exchanged into Massanutten Summit 3 years ago in July to celebrate my retirement from 4 decades of clinical and academic medicine. COVID restrictions were lifted and the resort was full swing. All that you mentioned to do is possible. For variety, amenities and just natural beauty for an inland resort, it's hard to beat. Before that, the last time we visited as a family was circa 1995 during a swing of central VA to check out historical sites. We were much younger and then and enjoyed all the outdoor activities. Harrisonburg looked like a sleepy town back then. No longer the case. Great eateries a short drive away. Enjoy your stay !

Thanks, I can see Massanutten being a place I come back to a lot. It's "close enough" with lots of stuff to do that I can't do in one trip (or even 2 as this is my second time here). I think I'll keep trying to bring different family here as I think it's a nice intro to TSs and is cheap via RCI cash buys.