They're maybe half way there IMO. At least for me. While they think it's less about larger / better accommodations than a hotel, when it comes down to it - that's and being cheaper are the main underlying value vs hotels. The on premises resort amenities and activities, especially ones included in the stay however you're staying are what differentiate a timeshare from an AirB&B. Having free minigolf, or ping pong, or pool tables, free movies, cheap activities etc. All the way up to some of the paid hiking with a llama or chairlift up a mountain, the pools and hot tubs, ideally adding saunas and maybe paid spas etc. Flexibility is important, but I'm pretty happy with the existing models. The only pain point is the very high exchange fees via RCI and II. This doesn't matter much for the big hotel brands as they can have low or free exchange fees inside their systems. But the independents NEED the exchange companies to be good IMHO, and really I'm still surprised that no one has disrupted the timeshare exchange duopoly. If it's true that ~70% of the actual resorts are independent, ARDA (or a management company or a new group those resorts should really want) ought to sponsor someone making a web app to do exchanges for sub $40 IMO. There's no reason it should cost more using a modern cloud hosted system. If GrubHub and DoorDash and 50 other companies can overlay millions of take out places that are all independent at a per order fee of around $6 - this ought to be a solved problem.
The above is a technology investment, but it's not a huge one. But forming a independent replacement at a much more attractive price than RCI or II will let the independents stay relevant for flexibility.
For the big players, given 2 of them each bought an exchange company, it's clear that they don't see the exchanges as really relevant to their strategy. It seems more likely that they're wanting to just take out what made up for not having a system from independents. Otherwise they'd be driving down costs rather than up.
On the use points for cruises and other experiences, I know that sells well, but I think pretty quickly anyone will work out it's way more effective to just pay cash. I again wonder about the surveys and such being reality because the idea that someone is buying a timeshare more for the "club" or "experiences" seems pretty niche. It's like buying a car for the satellite radio. I just doubt large masses of Millennials and GenZ want to plunk down tens of thousands of dollars to join any club or get a small discount or easier access or something to a future concert that you hope is for someone you want to see where it makes some sense to use the TS to get access.
As to the percentage of people owning a timeshare, I wonder if most people don't talk about it. I'm kind of "ashamed" to mention it for the first time to other people. I've been berated in the past to never buy a timeshare (before I owned one) and I've heard a lot of negative talk about them from people who don't know I use them.
I think they're right about expanding internationally, but they got to do it while keeping it in their system(s) rather than adding on ever more limited exchanges over top. Like it needs to just be part of HGVC / Club Wyndham / Worldmark etc. Or they just need to run it through the traditional sort of exchange systems. Almost no one is excited about 6 month out leftovers once they learn anything or try and actually use "the other locations". They're right that they have to keep at least some sort of value for the cost.
