Marriott Vacations Worldwide 3Q Sales Decline; Stock Tanks

[davidvel]

Not in the Marriott portfolio there aren't - well maybe a few in Sheraton that have 1BRs in gold season or something.

My point was a lot of timeshare owners have portfolios much bigger than that, and that just dividends from owning 400-500 shares of VAC (that you likely paid $30-40K +/- to acquire) doesn't exactly move the needle expense-wise.

Did that poster say they owned Marriott? Also when did VAC go from $50 to $75?

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Man, they've been lying to themselves about the property value?

there is a detail in the 10Q about that, and there is, as might be expected, a glaring omission of data / fact in the disclosure.
How MUCH inventory caused a $31 M charge? It is specific inventory. It is almost certainly not ALL of their inventory. How MUCH was it? Where is it?
Good analysts would have asked for that info on the call. THey are few and far between

 

[billymach4]

100% obvious. There is a long list of companies that don't have any significant amount of owners, customers, shareholders complaining and criticizing online
100% obvious. Now, look at companies that sell to consumers or have crapola stocks, and what do you expect?
2 different worlds

I disagree. All business entities will at some point voice critical dialog in the public space. Especially tech companies.

 

[craigd]

there is a detail in the 10Q about that, and there is, as might be expected, a glaring omission of data / fact in the disclosure.
How MUCH inventory caused a $31 M charge? It is specific inventory. It is almost certainly not ALL of their inventory. How MUCH was it? Where is it?
Good analysts would have asked for that info on the call. THey are few and far between

This.

 

[jp10558]

You got lost. Here, read this

Mathematical Logic in Maths – Symbols, Laws, Problems & Practice

Understand mathematical logic: learn key symbols, laws, truth tables, and exam-ready problem-solving strategies for Maths. Boost your logic skills for JEE & CBSE with solved examples and tips.

www.vedantu.com

and again. here, read this

Necessity and sufficiency - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This seems to imply to me the market never makes mistakes and cannot be defrauded. Maybe you mean over a long enough (undefined though) time horizon the market will align with a given businesses actual performance and value. In theory that is true, in reality only in a trivial sense that eventually a company goes out of business and the market value goes to 0. For any given period we can see stocks or bubbles or trends that do not turn out to reflect an underlying reality - the dot com bubble for instance.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

seems to imply to me the market never makes mistakes

OK, so many errors to unpack.
First, do not say "arbitrage". Say "excess return". What says AI?
arbitrage is a specific, low-risk or risk-free strategy to profit from momentary price discrepancies of the same asset, while excess return (or alpha) is a general measure of any investment's performance that is better than its expected return (benchmark) and typically involves bearing market risk.

• Definition: Arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same or highly similar assets in different markets to profit from a price difference

 

[WaikikiFirst]

over a long enough (undefined though) time horizon the market will align with a given businesses actual performance and value. In theory that is true, in reality only in a trivial sense

Sorry. I'm . now you'll slag off Ben Graham & Warren Buffett. ask AI about voting machine vs weighing machine re: Graham

 

[WaikikiFirst]

seems to imply to me the market never makes mistakes

Actually, it means the opposite. Mr Mkt constantly makes mistakes, which is why:
a) he is NOT "efficient"
b) significant public disclosure in SEC docs & public presentations is Necessary but NOT Sufficient to eliminate "excess return".

(The guy who used to tout the "Efficient Market Theory" actually thought that the market didn't have to get things right and it could still be strongly efficient. Oh boy. Y'all should look up published works by the proteges of whatshisname, the EMT guy, one of the most over-rated Nobel winners ever, His students who went on to be big enough, smart enough for people to listen. His students write various things that all clearly assume as a basis: if the market gets things "wrong", it is not "efficient".)

 

[davidvel]

Is there something about living in Hawaii that makes one a know it all lecturer lacking couth? Or is this just a coincidence between two prominent posters here?

 

[WaikikiFirst]

Is there something about living in Hawaii that makes one

Is there something about being on tug that makes one prefer S O A P to facts and accuracy. Yes. Yes, there is other Barry.
Speculation
Opinion
Anecdote
Preference

Revel in it

 

[davidvel]

U N H I N G E D.

 

[ljmiii]

Is there something about living in Hawaii that makes one [a] know it all...

Obviously they are smarter than us since they live in Hawaii...and I do mean that sincerely. One day I hope to join them...

 

[jp10558]

Sorry. I'm . now you'll slag off Ben Graham & Warren Buffett. ask AI about voting machine vs weighing machine re: Graham

No, I was trying to make that exact argument. I agree with Graham here. My quibble is just that for this sort of discussion thinking about the market as a weighing machine doesn't make a lot of sense, we're not talking 30 years down the road. I just think most people aren't talking about value investing in these quarter by quarter, or even maybe 3-5 year periods.

And the reason I'm not sure the stock market tells us much from the 3Q reports about MVC is because the main info that these moves seem to be based on is they lost money. I mean, yes, trivially losing money is bad, don't need a analyst to tell me that. We're all discussing why they lost money. I'm not sure this tells us much because the disclosures don't really go into why the sales are down or (as you pointed out) what real estate they overvalued, or even much of an explanation how and why they overvalued any of it.

What I want to know, but am not at all sure the market can tell us, is if MVC is executing poorly on a sound strategy or not. By that I mean, did someone "make a mistake" on the real estate numbers and they have to come clean now, or did the real estate market move against them so the values dropped and also all the non-value in their sales product from a TUG educated consumer perspective?

I still think the big question is - for what MVC can offer, is the purchase and MF price simply too high for people who would be interested.

 

[jp10558]

Is there something about living in Hawaii that makes one a know it all lecturer lacking couth? Or is this just a coincidence between two prominent posters here

IDK, the bigger problem is just that "the stock market explains everything" is one hell of a starting point for life.

 

[TolmiePeak]

Is there something about living in Hawaii that makes one a know it all lecturer lacking couth? Or is this just a coincidence between two prominent posters here?

If there was I would have moved there already.

 

[RENTER]

While i agree with your sentiment. Tell me one company where you don't see owners, customers, shareholders complaining and criticizing online. In this age of internet everyone has something to say. Usually negative.

Yes, you are correct but nothing like timeshare companies receive being accused of fraud and elder abuse by many

 

[Bodie]

Marriott Vacations Worldwide announced their 3Q 2025 earnings on Wednesday, reporting that contract sales in the quarter declined 4% compared to the prior year period. As a result, the stock is down 24% this morning to about $51/share as a write this. They said tours in the quarter were down 1% year-over-year and VPG (basically sales per tour average) was down 5%. They posted a loss of $2 million for the quarter.

President and CEO John Geller said:

“We are not satisfied with this performance and are taking concrete actions to return to growth, including realigning sales and marketing field incentives to drive strong productivity, curbing third-party commercial rental activity to drive higher owner arrivals and satisfaction, and implementing FICO-based screening to enhance lead quality and drive improved VPGs. We continue to expect a $150 million to $200 million Adjusted EBITDA benefit from our modernization program by the end of 2026.”

I missed the conference call this morning, but it will be available as an archive by this afternoon, so I may skim though it.

I'm very glad I sold my VAC shares a while back.

Just great. Now we can expect MVC to make things even worse for owners.

 

[RENTER]

Apparently according to @jabberwocky dividends are bad because they get taxed. Though it does seem eventually if you accepted a stable company making a consistent profit, you as an investor would want some way to get money out of the investment besides selling shares. And just doing stock buybacks would theoretically eventually run out of stock to buy back. I guess that does work better chasing infinite growth, but that's not actually possible as you say. It is too bad that we no longer value consistent profit over the long haul.

They are not taxed in a Roth IRA. Does not matter in an IRA or 401K. Dividends and Capital Gains are both treated as ordinary income when withdrawn.

I use them to dollar cost average into growth investments.

 

[VacationForever]

Is there something about living in Hawaii that makes one a know it all lecturer lacking couth? Or is this just a coincidence between two prominent posters here?

It's the water.

 

[jabberwocky]

Thank you for asking some of the right questions. Analyze cash flow from financing activities and study the credit support in their securitzation structure. It all works, until it doesn't. There are many important metrics to which we don't have a direct line of sight because so much is camouflaged in transactions between VAC and the various trusts they have set up through which they actually operate but whose financials are not rolled into VAC reporting.

And, while you are at it, read what they say about the various trusts (Variable Interest Entities) to justify not consolidating them and try not to laugh. The jig is almost up. Buy some popcorn and enjoy the next act.

Wow - I went into work today and pulled up TUG to see how things have blown up at VAC! Doesn't surprise me that they fired the CEO

I agree that the VIEs are a concern and have undoubtedly been used to smooth things out. I haven't wanted to go full accounting nerd on TUG, as this gets into some pretty arcane stuff. But if anyone is interested, Footnote 15 has several disclosures that warrant further questions. I'm most curious about the Waikiki transaction and how they've given up the upside potential on this transaction while retaining $7 million of downside potential losses. But that is for a different thread.

 

[WBP]

Third Quarter 2025 Investor Relations Call is interesting:

Audio/video, here: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/nm3dva75/

Presentation: https://ir.marriottvacationsworldwide.com/static-files/0d81b2da-9789-4e08-85f6-68d78349e187

Hysterical to hear Geller, et al, refer to a major source of losses as “curb third party commercial rental activity by a small subset of owners, that has depressed owner arrivals at some of MVC’s most popular destinations,” rhetoric follows. Listen to him respond to questions about this, during the Question and Answer period.

My take, when I listened to Geller’s rhetoric, I quickly realized why MVC’s financial performance has plummeted.

Amazing to think that Mr. Geller walked away from MVW with a $5M Platinum Parachute.

My take: MVC Executives and Board members have no understanding of where and why MVW is failing.

Oh, I just heard this (listening to the presentation, again): Interval International Getaways have massacred MVW’s rental revenue.

 

[jabberwocky]

OK, so many errors to unpack.
First, do not say "arbitrage". Say "excess return". What says AI?
arbitrage is a specific, low-risk or risk-free strategy to profit from momentary price discrepancies of the same asset, while excess return (or alpha) is a general measure of any investment's performance that is better than its expected return (benchmark) and typically involves bearing market risk.

• Definition: Arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same or highly similar assets in different markets to profit from a price difference

So to put this in timeshare terms, arbitrage is when I trade a low-MF tiger trader for a high-cost Hawaii week via RCI or II (or use differentials in MF values between SO and Abound points). Alpha is when I try to buy low cost deeds, book high value weeks and rent them out.

Most TUGgers are masters of both - they just use a different vocabulary.

 

[jabberwocky]

Third Quarter 2025 Investor Relations Call is interesting:

Audio/video, here: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/nm3dva75/

Presentation: https://ir.marriottvacationsworldwide.com/static-files/0d81b2da-9789-4e08-85f6-68d78349e187

Hysterical to hear Geller, et al, refer to a major source of losses as “curb third party commercial rental activity by a small subset of owners, that has depressed owner arrivals at some of MVC’s most popular destinations,” rhetoric follows. Listen to him respond to questions about this, during the Question and Answer period.

My take, when I listened to Geller’s rhetoric, I quickly realized why MVC’s financial performance has plummeted.

Amazing to think that Mr. Geller walked away from MVW with a $5M Platinum Parachute.

My take: MVC Executives and Board members have no understanding of where and why MVW is failing.

Oh, I just heard this (listening to the presentation, again): Interval International Getaways have massacred MVW’s rental revenue.

I think the board is well aware of what is going on - they've got some smart people that have been added to the board this year. The $5 million payoff is well-spent to get rid of Geller and avoid further damage.

I'm optimistic that Avril can help steady the ship. He has a good pedigree with Starwood and Vistana. My hope had been when VAC bought out ILG that the Vistana side could bring some enlightenment to the VAC side. As usual, my faith was misplaced and VAC decided that they could convert all of the Vistana folks into MVC buyers. The sales experiment didn't last long as we've seen.

 

[jabberwocky]

Apparently according to @jabberwocky dividends are bad because they get taxed. Though it does seem eventually if you accepted a stable company making a consistent profit, you as an investor would want some way to get money out of the investment besides selling shares. And just doing stock buybacks would theoretically eventually run out of stock to buy back. I guess that does work better chasing infinite growth, but that's not actually possible as you say. It is too bad that we no longer value consistent profit over the long haul.

Nope - I didn't say that dividends are bad - it's just that they don't create value.

A thought experiment: suppose I have a company that has $1 billion in assets and the company trades at book value (let's say $100/share). If the company pays out $100 million as a dividend ($10/share) - are you better or worse off?

The answer in a world with no tax is that you should be in the same position. Your net worth is unchanged. Pre-dividend you have a shares worth $100 each. Ex-dividend you have shares worth $90 each, but your personal cash position has gone up by $10/share - so no difference. Now if you introduce a tax on dividend income you are in a worse-off position since your net worth per share will be $90 + (1-tax rate)*$10 .

Dividends are a good way to signal stability, but they can also mask weakness. I get the point about buybacks eventually running out of stock to buy, but companies routinely split their shares when the price has gone up, so you don't have to sell off your whole stake if you are seeking liquidity. This was the whole reason why BRK.B was introduced alongside the BRK.A shares - and BRK as you know has never paid a dividend.

 

[jabberwocky]

Whoof. Of the "takeover targets" I would not have guessed VAC. The big question to me though is - is VAC just THAT BAD at managing things and someone doing a better job can turn it around, and how much is VAC has all the prices too high for the current market? Because I can't see many people wanting to buy them out and then lower prices somehow to get customers.

They already have an activist investor involved (Impactive Capital). It may not be a full-takeover, but they have some assets that just don't make strategic sense and might be worth more to another owner, or someone willing to segment the customer base rather than a one-size fits all approach.

For example, if I were the new CEO of VAC, I'd be calling up Hyatt and seeing if they would be interested in buying back the rights to the Hyatt name as it relates to timeshares, as well as the management contracts for Hyatt/Welk timeshare properties. That alone has to be worth more in the hands of Hyatt for cross-selling/branding than it is with Marriott.