High QualityTimeshare Resale Prices Plummeting

[gmarine]

ROFR isn't what props up the value of Disney timeshares.

It's Mickey Mouse & the gang -- with generous sprinklings of Pixie Dust -- that prop up the value of Disney timeshares.

However, not even Tinker Bell & The Little Mermaid & Buzz Lightyear have enough power to prop up the values as the remaining years on those Disney timeshare RTUs start dwindling down to a precious few.

At some point -- hard to predict exactly when -- the phenomenon of Disney RTU timeshare owners trying to shuck off their points for big bux while there's still time will resemble a jynormous game of Reverse Musical Chairs.

Anybody expecting ROFR to have any price-propping effect at that point will be in for a big surprise.

ROFR = ROFL.

BTW -- Do you know why the Little Mermaid wears sea shells ?

Simple. The "B" shells are too small.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

So you believe that right now if Disney stopped exercising ROFR, resale prices would remain the same?

 

[BocaBum99]

So you believe that right now if Disney stopped exercising ROFR, resale prices would remain the same?

Disney is still exercising ROFR and the prices are dropping even though they are exercising.

If they stopped exercising ROFR, prices would continue to fall, but at a faster rate.

 

[AwayWeGo]

Down, Down, Down.

So you believe that right now if Disney stopped exercising ROFR, resale prices would remain the same?

Propping up resale prices -- the claimed virtue of ROFR -- doesn't mean that the prices don't go down, only that they don't go "too low" (whatever that means).

ROFR = ROFL.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

You are confusing correlation with causality. Just because those two things happened at the same time, doesn't necesarily mean that one caused the other.

And even if one did cause the other, doesn't it seem more likely that the units have become worth less money so Marriott stopped using ROFR, as opposed to Marriott stopped using ROFR so the units became worth less money?

Michael

Correlation and causation. A couple of years ago timeshare resale pricing was showing some signs of weakness, which many of us attributed to postcard companies dumping their acquisitions on the market for whatever price they could net. Meanwhile, the US economy was strong.

But now timeshare resale prices have collapsed and the world economy is now listing badly.

Isn't it clear that the collapse of the timeshare resale market led to a chain reaction that cracked the world financial markets. And it's all because of those postcard companies.

 

[RahRah]

ROFR isn't what props up the value of Disney timeshares.

It's Mickey Mouse & the gang -- with generous sprinklings of Pixie Dust -- that prop up the value of Disney timeshares.

However, not even Tinker Bell & The Little Mermaid & Buzz Lightyear have enough power to prop up the values as the remaining years on those Disney timeshare RTUs start dwindling down to a precious few.

At some point -- hard to predict exactly when -- the phenomenon of Disney RTU timeshare owners trying to shuck off their points for big bux while there's still time will resemble a jynormous game of Reverse Musical Chairs.

Anybody expecting ROFR to have any price-propping effect at that point will be in for a big surprise.

ROFR = ROFL.

BTW -- Do you know why the Little Mermaid wears sea shells ?

Simple. The "B" shells are too small.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

I think Disney just shot owners of DVC points in the foot - they're offering a buy 4 get 3 free from January 4 to June 27, 2009 to the public and that includes their villa resorts.

The other day I priced out a 2-BR villa at Saratoga Springs for April 4-11, 2009 since my neice & nephew are on spring break and it's open and available for $3788 for the week with a 7-day base ticket for 2 adults and 2 kids.

If you remove the base ticket price, that's $2892 for the week, including taxes, to stay in a DVC unit that requires 316 DVC points, or $3160 minimum on the rental market with points going at $10 a point.

If you're an owner, paying the MF of $4.12 per point, you're paying $1310 in maintenance fees, $95 resort fee at check-in, or $1405 for your week, plus whatever you paid to buy your points!

If I were an owner of DVC right now, I'd be a tad annoyed at the deal they're offering the public!

 

[myip]

I think Disney just shot owners of DVC points in the foot - they're offering a buy 4 get 3 free from January 4 to June 27, 2009 to the public and that includes their villa resorts.

Where do you get this offer?

 

[Transit]

I've read many a post from buyers asking what the going price for a unit was and if it would pass ROFR. they would offer sellers a "set floor price" that would pass ROFR.This has kept those units artificially high priced resales.Some deveolopers like Starwood just never attached ROFR or rarley exercised it. Starwood unit resale prices would drop like rocks and level off at a true demand price for the location. Marriott ,Hyatt ,DVC had that ROFR floor to prop their resale prices up.Without that ROFR created "set floor price " those resale units will be bought for a true demand price.

 

[RahRah]

Where do you get this offer?

Disney's website - http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/wdw/index - left graphic column has "Buy 4, Get 3 FREE!" option to click through - once on that page, click book now and when you search, depending on dates, all the DVC villa properties are up for reservation by the general public (studio, 1-BR and 2-BR) in the 7 for 4 deal they're offering. Oh, and if you book in for a date before the end of March, you also get a $200 gift card on arrival to spend as you wish in the parks, etc.

 

[AwayWeGo]

Floor Price, Shamore Price.

Without that ROFR created "set floor price " those resale units will be bought for a true demand price.

Not only that, ROFR doesn't even create or establish or set any floor price.

Just because some timeshare company holds ROFR on your timeshare unit, that doesn't mean the timeshare company is obligated to buy it out from under any lowball buyer you're getting ready to sell it to, even if it's only 99 cents.

And if the timeshare company does buy it out from under your 99-cent buyer, you still just get 99 cents. Some floor value.

Timeshare owners can & do sell below whatever the current ROFR trigger price of the day might happen to be. But of course -- thanks to ROFR -- when resale timeshare units do go cheap like that, they go only to the timeshare company.

In addition to ROFR being a 1-way street, ROFR = ROFL.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

​

​

 

[bizaro86]

Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
You are confusing correlation with causality. Just because those two things happened at the same time, doesn't necesarily mean that one caused the other.

And even if one did cause the other, doesn't it seem more likely that the units have become worth less money so Marriott stopped using ROFR, as opposed to Marriott stopped using ROFR so the units became worth less money?

Michael

Boca: I think Marriott stopped exercising ROFR because they had more inventory than they could sell and they ran out of budget to buy back units. I don't think it has anything to do with the sales price of the contracts.

I think Marriott stopped using ROFR because the price they were choosing to sell their units for was now so far above the price at which supply and demand are equal (and thus the market would clear) that they had a bunch of extra inventory. They could sell every week they have in inventory, but they wouldn't like the prices they'd get, so they've stopped buying. So lower prices have caused higher inventories have caused no ROFR, if you prefer.

Michael

 

[gmarine]

Propping up resale prices -- the claimed virtue of ROFR -- doesn't mean that the prices don't go down, only that they don't go "too low" (whatever that means).

ROFR = ROFL.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

The question is what will happen to DVC resale prices if Disney stops exercising ROFR?
Add to that question this. What would happen to Marriott resale prices if Marriott announced that they will no longer exercise ROFR. Resale prices up, down or the same?
Ever seen a post on TUG where a buyer wants to raise his price on a resale to make sure Marriott doesnt grab it?

By your above post you agree that ROFR keeps prices from going "too low". So by saying that, you agree that ROFR keeps resale prices higher than if the resorts did not have ROFR.

Agreeing with ROFR and whether it actually keeps resale prices up are two different things.

 

[AwayWeGo]

That's What The Timeshare Companies Say, Not What I Say.

By your above post you agree that ROFR keeps prices from going "too low". So by saying that, you agree that ROFR keeps resale prices higher than if the resorts did not have ROFR.

Read it again.

I conspicuously used a set of quotation marks around that phrase by way of making it plain that keeping resale prices from going "too low" is the "Good Reason" -- the "claimed virtue" -- timeshare companies ascribe to ROFR, as distinct from the Real Reason for ROFR, which is something else again.

And how low is "too low" anyway ?

The ROFR timeshare companies never say.

("Scare quotes" is the phrase some folks out there in the blogosphere use to identify that particular use of quotation marks, which otherwise are just plain-vanilla punctuation doodads. More & more I also see people making those little 2-hand finger-wiggle "air quotes" as the conversational equivalent of printed or written "scare quotes." I've always had an unfortunate tendency to overuse "scare quotes." More rigorous self-editing on my part wouldn't hurt, & I'll try to do better.)

Agreeing with ROFR and whether it actually keeps resale prices up are two different things.

You got that right.

ROFR = ROFL.

PS: How did you like the sea shells gag ?

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

 

[Latravel]

gmarine-
I agree with you completely. I see all of the posts to the contrary but one main comment that keeps coming back on the Marriott forum: "why isn't Marriott exercising ROFR", or "where is Marriott". Some of these people were the most outspoken about ROFR yet when the market fell, they were relying on ROFR to keep their prices up.

It doesn't matter that the seller makes less. The bottom line- if a buyer wants to buy a Marriott (when ROFR was in full force), you would not be able to purchase it at rock bottom prices. When ROFR was suspended (or whatever they are doing), people feel like they can get a steal, unlike in the past. As an owner, I feel that ROFR was my safety net and a main stabilizer in prices.

It is so clear that ROFR keeps up prices that I just can't see or agree with any comments to the contrary, though I really try to see the other side!

 

[gmarine]

Read it again.

I conspicuously used a set of quotation marks around that phrase by way of making it plain that keeping resale prices from going "too low" is the "Good Reason" -- the "claimed virtue" -- timeshare companies ascribe to ROFR, as distinct from the Real Reason for ROFR, which is something else again.

And how low is "too low" anyway ?

The ROFR timeshare companies never say.

("Scare quotes" is the phrase some folks out there in the blogosphere use to identify that particular use of quotation marks, which otherwise are just plain-vanilla punctuation doodads. More & more I also see people making those little 2-hand finger-wiggle "air quotes" as the conversational equivalent of printed or written "scare quotes." I've always had an unfortunate tendency to overuse "scare quotes." More rigorous self-editing on my part wouldn't hurt, & I'll try to do better.) You got that right.

ROFR = ROFL.

PS: How did you like the sea shells gag ?

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

Seashell gag was amusing. But you still havent answered the questions I posed.
Disney and/or Marriott stops ROFR. Where do resale prices go?

 

[gmarine]

Read it again.

I conspicuously used a set of quotation marks around that phrase by way of making it plain that keeping resale prices from going "too low" is the "Good Reason" -- the "claimed virtue" -- timeshare companies ascribe to ROFR, as distinct from the Real Reason for ROFR, which is something else again.

And how low is "too low" anyway ?

The ROFR timeshare companies never say.

("Scare quotes" is the phrase some folks out there in the blogosphere use to identify that particular use of quotation marks, which otherwise are just plain-vanilla punctuation doodads. More & more I also see people making those little 2-hand finger-wiggle "air quotes" as the conversational equivalent of printed or written "scare quotes." I've always had an unfortunate tendency to overuse "scare quotes." More rigorous self-editing on my part wouldn't hurt, & I'll try to do better.) You got that right.

ROFR = ROFL.

PS: How did you like the sea shells gag ?

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

Seashell gag was amusing. But you still havent answered the questions I posed.
Disney and/or Marriott stops ROFR. Where do resale prices go?

You surely have seen posts on TUG where someone mentions of raising their offer to beat ROFR.

 

[AwayWeGo]

Cutting Through The Fog Of R. O. F. R.

Seashell gag was amusing. But you still havent answered the questions I posed.
Disney and/or Marriott stops ROFR. Where do resale prices go?

You surely have seen posts on TUG where someone mentions of raising their offer to beat ROFR.

Just because I caught on that ROFR = ROFL -- & because I keep on trying to illustrate why that's so -- doesn't mean I have any knowledge whatsoever about prices & market trends of resale timeshares, Mariott or Disney or WestGate or Hyatt mox nix. Also, I don't do research.

It took me a while to catch on to ROFR, because for the 1st few years I was participating here at TUG-BBS I was as prone as the next person to accept the surface plausibility of the idea that ROFR props up resale prices to keep them from going "too low." You could say I went for it hook, line & sinker, & I accepted it as an item of (mis)information that "everybody knows." The timeshare sellers say the company retains ROFR as a way of making sure the resale prices don't go "too low" & I just sit there & nod my head acceptingly without giving it much thought. Sounds right. Must be right. They'd never lie or mislead, would they ?

N-a-a-a-h.

Because "everybody knows" it's "common knowledge" that ROFR props up prices, that has the effect of shutting off the mind from thinking about it enough to see if it makes sense. The idea actually does not stand scruitiny, but its surface plausibility effectively immunizes it from even the minimal scrutiny it takes to see that.

It surprises me that I keep jumping in on the subject because I have no dog in the ROFR fight. None of my timeshare deeds has an ROFR provision, making the whole ROFR issue fully mox nix to me as a practical matter.

But just as when I realized that There Is No Such Thing As A New Timeshare (i.e., All Timeshares Are Used-Used-Used By The Time Anybody Gets There & Checks In) & I keep on repeating that to those here & elsewhere who might benefit by understanding it, I feel I ought to do something similar now that I realize ROFR = ROFL -- i.e., to keep beating that drum as well.

So it goes.

Also, it makes not a particle of difference whether anybody does or does not ( -- pardon the "scare quotes" -- ) "agree" that ROFR = ROFL. Either it does or it doesn't. Either ROFR is in your timeshare deed or it isn't. It is what it is. It's just nice to be able to cut through the fog & see past the smoke & mirrors.

For people who already own ROFR timeshares, the only benefit I can think of in coming round to the understanding that ROFR = ROFL is a possible adjustment in one's expectations about what ROFR really means -- i.e., nothing -- about propping up resale values when it comes time to sell.

For 1st timers thinking it over, it's just nice to share insights that can help them cut through the fog & the baloney & the truth-stretchers that are packed into those high-pressure, arm-twisting, guilt-tripping, psychologically manipulative timeshare sales pitches. You know...

Buy Resale & Save Thousands.
Buy Mainly To Use, Not To Exchange.
Rescinda-Sinda-Sinda.
All Timeshares Are Used-Used-Used.
ROFR = ROFL.​

PS: Sorry about those excessive "scare quotes." The habit is hard to break.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

 

[gmarine]

Just because I caught on that ROFR = ROFL -- & because I keep on trying to illustrate why that's so -- doesn't mean I have any knowledge whatsoever about prices & market trends of resale timeshares, Mariott or Disney or WestGate or Hyatt mox nix. Also, I don't do research.

It took me a while to catch on to ROFR, because for the 1st few years I was participating here at TUG-BBS I was as prone as the next person to accept the surface plausibility of the idea that ROFR props up resale prices to keep them from going "too low." You could say I went for it hook, line & sinker, & I accepted it as an item of (mis)information that "everybody knows." The timeshare sellers say the company retains ROFR as a way of making sure the resale prices don't go "too low" & I just sit there & nod my head acceptingly without giving it much thought. Sounds right. Must be right. They'd never lie or mislead, would they ?

N-a-a-a-h.

Because "everybody knows" it's "common knowledge" that ROFR props up prices, that has the effect of shutting off the mind from thinking about it enough to see if it makes sense. The idea actually does not stand scruitiny, but its surface plausibility effectively immunizes it from even the minimal scrutiny it takes to see that.

It surprises me that I keep jumping in on the subject because I have no dog in the ROFR fight. None of my timeshare deeds has an ROFR provision, making the whole ROFR issue fully mox nix to me as a practical matter.

But just as when I realized that There Is No Such Thing As A New Timeshare (i.e., All Timeshares Are Used-Used-Used By The Time Anybody Gets There & Checks In) & I keep on repeating that to those here & elsewhere who might benefit by understanding it, I feel I ought to do something similar now that I realize ROFR = ROFL -- i.e., to keep beating that drum as well.

So it goes.

Also, it makes not a particle of difference whether anybody does or does not ( -- pardon the "scare quotes" -- ) "agree" that ROFR = ROFL. Either it does or it doesn't. Either ROFR is in your timeshare deed or it isn't. It is what it is. It's just nice to be able to cut through the fog & see past the smoke & mirrors.

For people who already own ROFR timeshares, the only benefit I can think of in coming round to the understanding that ROFR = ROFL is a possible adjustment in one's expectations about what ROFR really means -- i.e., nothing -- about propping up resale values when it comes time to sell.

For 1st timers thinking it over, it's just nice to share insights that can help them cut through the fog & the baloney & the truth-stretchers that are packed into those high-pressure, arm-twisting, psychologically manipulative timeshare sales pitches. You know...

Buy Resale & Save Thousands.
Buy Mainly To Use, Not To Exchange.
Rescinda-Sinda-Sinda.
All Timeshares Are Used-Used-Used.
ROFR = ROFL.​

PS: Sorry about those excessive "scare quotes." The habit is hard to break.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

I didnt think you would answer the question. But you do know the answer. ROFL LMAO. Both DVC and Marriott resale prices are supported by ROFR and would fall if it was announced that ROFR had stopped.

It just occurred to me that by your own words you dont do research, dont own a timeshare with ROFR and dont have any knowledge whatsoever about resale timeshare prices. No offense, but why then are you on the topic?

 

[timeos2]

The seller only get the lowball offer. Maybe from Marriott or DVC but thats all

I didnt think you would answer the question. But you do know the answer. ROFL LMAO. Both DVC and Marriott resale prices are supported by ROFR and would fall if it was announced that ROFR had stopped.

It just occurred to me that by your own words you dont do research, dont own a timeshare with ROFR and dont have any knowledge whatsoever about resale timeshare prices. Why are you on the topic?

If you believe that prove it. Who has a case where a buyer offered X for a ROFR resort only to add $$ "because there is ROFR so I am willing to pay more". I have pleny of posts where people have offered LOWER prices - which is all the seller got - and refused to play the game. So how did that raise the resale price? The only thing that has changed today is buyers are more willing to make offers since there is virtually no chance that ROFR will play thus they may actually be able to buy for market price rather than having to deal with the inflated and non-market values of DVC/Marriott/etc. Some of us know not to buy any resort that has ROFR so from the start your possible pool of buyers, and thus potential sale, is hurt by ROFR.

It is no friend to owners. Nothing here has change that simple fact.

 

[gmarine]

If you believe that prove it. Who has a case where a buyer offered X for a ROFR resort only to add $$ "because there is ROFR so I am willing to pay more". I have pleny of posts where people have offered LOWER prices - which is all the seller got - and refused to play the game. So how did that raise the resale price? The only thing that has changed today is buyers are more willing to make offers since there is virtually no chance that ROFR will play thus they may actually be able to buy for market price rather than having to deal with the inflated and non-market values of DVC/Marriott/etc. Some of us know not to buy any resort that has ROFR so from the start your possible pool of buyers, and thus potential sale, is hurt by ROFR.

It is no friend to owners. Nothing here has change that simple fact.

I was going to debate more but edited my post.

John, we always get into over ROFR. Lets agree to disagree again.

 

[AwayWeGo]

That Old R. O. F. R. Black Magic.

No offense, but why then are you on the topic?

I think that's covered starting about halfway through my earlier essay on the subject -- i.e., for the same reason I'm on the topic of buying resale, rescinding full-freight purchases, & all the other valuable insights derived from TUG-BBS participation. It's just what some of us TUG-BBS types do for the possible benefit of others who come after us. No reason they have to learn everything the hard way.

I sense that I may possibly be starting to get your goat on this topic, & if so I'm sorry & I will try to do better because that's not my intent. We're all friends here, right ?

By me, timeshares are for having fun & TUG-BBS is for having fun also, not for putting a damper on other people's enjoyment. So for now I'm putting a sock in it & turning the lectern over to people who do do research.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Are you saying that if DVC stopped ROFR prices would remain the same?

And please show me the posts where people had units taken by ROFR and then offered a lower price.

Not exactly what you are asking, but I can specifically say that at one time I was considering buying a second, EOY float week at Poípu. However, with the developer at that time exercising ROFR on weeks that were in our price range I never bothered making any offers.

I suppose in one sense that propped up the price by eliminating a sale that might have occurred at a lower price. Of course, it also means that somewhere there are owners who never received an offer they would have otherwise received. When someone has something they are trying to sell, I fail to see how anything that reduces the pool of qualified buyers is an advantage to the seller.

Since you are challenging other people to answer questions, perhaps you could explain to us how you conclude that reducing the pool of potential buyers in a market that is already a buyers market is an advantage to sellers.

 

[gmarine]

Not exactly what you are asking, but I can specifically say that at one time I was considering buying a second, EOY float week at Poípu. However, with the developer at that time exercising ROFR on weeks that were in our price range I never bothered making any offers.

I suppose in one sense that propped up the price by eliminating a sale that might have occurred at a lower price. Of course, it also means that somewhere there are owners who never received an offer they would have otherwise received. When someone has something they are trying to sell, I fail to see how anything that reduces the pool of qualified buyers is an advantage to the seller.

Since you are challenging other people to answer questions, perhaps you could explain to us how you conclude that reducing the pool of potential buyers in a market that is already a buyers market is an advantage to sellers.

Steve, ROFR may certainly eliminate some buyers who are only willing to offer a low price but reducing the number of lowball offers isnt a disadvantage if the seller wants a certain price.

On the other hand how about a buyer who wants to own DVC. If you want to buy resale you absolutely know that you cannot buy a contract for less than lets say $85 per point. So what is the buyer to do. Either offer over $85 per point or the sale wont go through. Price protection for DVC owners.

My point is that while not everyone is a fan of ROFR, it can and does keep up resale prices for some high demand timeshares.

 

[gmarine]

I think that's covered starting about halfway through my earlier essay on the subject -- i.e., for the same reason I'm on the topic of buying resale, rescinding full-freight purchases, & all the other valuable insights derived from TUG-BBS participation. It's just what some of us TUG-BBS types do for the possible benefit of others who come after us. No reason they have to learn everything the hard way.

I sense that I may possibly be starting to get your goat on this topic, & if so I'm sorry & I will try to do better because that's not my intent. We're all friends here, right ?

By me, timeshares are for having fun & TUG-BBS is for having fun also, not for putting a damper on other people's enjoyment. So for now I'm putting a sock in it & turning the lectern over to people who do do research.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

Alan, I didnt mean to come across wrong. Lets agree to disagree.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

My point is that while not everyone is a fan of ROFR, it can and does keep up resale prices for some high demand timeshares.

I have not disagreed with that premise at all. What I do contend is that to the extent ROFR artificially forces prices higher it results in owners who leaving some owners unable to sell their units because there are more sellers at that price point than there are buyers ready to pay that price.

 

[timeos2]

Always offer less to the next seller when ROFR is involved. The pipe may be full

Are you saying that if DVC stopped ROFR prices would remain the same?

Asking prices? Yes. If buyers are willing to pay asking prices then yes. If they aren't - and most make offers and those are usually lower - then no. But the SALES price will be the same with or without ROFR as the seller has always only got what the accepted offer was. And most offers are less than asking price. So the selling price - far lower than you though it was - will remain the same and will go down now that the economy is killing all timeshare sales -retail & resale. It won't go down because ROFR is thankfully hit hard times and isn't being exercised much anymore.

And please show me the posts where people had units taken by ROFR and then offered a lower price.

As for posts where actual willing buyers - the only group that can trigger ROFR - offer less to the next seller they attempt to purchase from after having an accepted offer stolen from them by a ROFR Developer there are a few from a few months back but I'm not going to search for them.

Oh, by the way, if they stuck to that rule (Always offer LESS for the next offer as I had recommended early this year) they recently got some great deals! If they were silly enough to offer more to "get by ROFR" which they were specifically advised not to do, they got hosed. Those who hang on to the ROFR protection myth will someday suffer disappointment as well. Some just don't want to learn I guess. Words of warning can only go so far - buyers have to listen or take the consequences.