WaikikiFirst
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And yet people continue to misunderstand "productivity". "Productivity" is a CALCULATION. It is less-so a "real thing". It is a calculation.And yet US productivity continues to
Recent changes in the "productivity" of a country have almost nothing to do with how "productive" new workers are. For the US, for many yrs now, much larger factors are:
1) MIX & Globalization; people really don't know how to spot MIX. As I stated on anotehr thread (maybe just yesterday), these CALCULATIONS that have a simple numerator and a simple DENOMINATOR, can depend mostly on MIX. Globalization? If globalization sends lower-paying jobs overseas, what happens to US productivity over time? Ask yourself: "Is globalization sending lower-paying or higher-paying jobs overseas from the USA? What does that do to productivity?"
2) the LONG LAGs of TECHNOLOGICAL improvements; every tech improvement that raises productivity (either the real-thing or the calculation, take your pick) does so over many years. Adoption takes many years. It is not flipping-on-a-switch.
Will AI raise productivity? Well, if it does so, it will be over decades. And then you can debate whether it is doing so more by MIX (replacing low-paying jobs) or by making every job and every worker more "productive". In the early days, it is far more likely to be MIX.
And, no, it is not the MIX of one generation's inherent "productivity" vs another. My word
