Got the Call

[FractionalTraveler]

Fractional Traveler,

Thank you for the comments -- I definitely agree with the underlined point, but I must respectfully disagree with the remainder of your comments.

The two buckets have been a real problem since inception and there have been multiple reports from TUGgers who purchased Trust Points experiencing difficulty in booking reservations (in combination with Legacy Points). Reservations that should have been easy to get could not be booked. I spoke at length to the (former) Director of Customer Advocacy and wrote a lengthy post on TUG on the workings of the Trust and Legacy Bucket in June 2011. It was a mess.

I do believe that they have now implemented a change to more integrate the two buckets -- and they should announce whatever they are doing as their on-going, permanent policy (and should be proud of it and take credit for doing it).

Otherwise, those of us who remain cynical (and I wasn't cynical at all prior to June 20, 2010) will simply think Marriott may undo it in the future when there is a sufficient critical mass of Trust Points out there. That future change would harm the Legacy Point User who is accustomed to using the system in today's environment.

All the best,

Greg

Greg, Thanks for the feedback. Guess I was lucky to get my reservations without too much problems. I did purchase trust points the first week they were offered. In combination with my other legacy weeks, I was fortunate to land at the Premier Plus status with my portfolio.

One of the issues I did see very early on in 2010 was that customer service themselves didn't really understand the new rules and as a result lots of customers experienced fustration. I was one of those that consistently told them in the surveys that the rollout was terrible.

They initially told me that I was a "Hybrid" owner and that since I owned trust points, I could combine them with the rest of my portfolio and get what I wanted. I really didn't care what they called me or what level I was as long as I got my reservation, and that was what happened for me.

The only other real complaint I had was that I never knew how many points I had left in each bucket during the course of the year. When the website was recently updated with this functionality, I became a happy camper.

I have my doubts about future sales of points and concerns regarding MVW in general. IMHO, I don't think they will sustain what they are doing right now. The points system is very expensive for new customers and it seems to me that they are just proping up the numbers with these enrollment fees.

This upcharge of enrollment to $2395 is only to keep profitability at par over the next 12 months.

I don't see any further incentive for me to buy any more points if they don't come out with any new products. I can just rent what I want for a lot less.

But I think the honeymoon will be over by 2013. The stock price is way over valued and they will continue to sell excess land and push out phases of uncompleted properties to keep the numbers in line with expectations.

The Ritz-Carlton DC will continue to offset any modest earnings from MCVI. They are bleeding so bad over there that they can't give away the units.

Anyways, thats just my current take on things.

 

[winger]

Good evening....


Oops,forgot to ask about resale....

My bad...

any chance the salesman left you his business card? If he did, a followup call maybe possible.

 

[Quilter]

good afternoon....

. He also pointed out that as more Trust points are sold these points and flooded the system there would be less Trust inventory...and thus Trust points would be >>>Legacy points down the road

I did get the "points are flying off the shelf" and prices will soon be at $14-$15/pt shtick . I remained modestly skeptical here. There were many customers in the gallery....

It was as pleasant as can be!!! Took my $250 in goodies and off to the pool and a visit to mom....

Did he speculate how long before he or the sales force thought this flooding of Trust points would take? Or did he go into the percentage of Trust inventory at different properties and say Marriott was aggressively pursuing inventory with ROFR and foreclosures?

 

[puckmanfl]

good morning...

watching the sun rise from my OF balcony on the 17th floor at Oceana palms...

Yes, I did snag a card from my "rep". However, since I have no intention of purchasing I don't feel that it is respectful for me to call and take up his time outside of my presentation, just to get more queries asked. I have no problem with spending 90 minutes during a presentation, since they invited me. I also tell every rep during my sessions that they are welcome to let me go early, if they have "something else to do". I told my rep that I would call him if I had a desire to purchase or was seriously considering a purchase...

Yes, My rep gave me the hard push about how they are actively filling the trust with ROFR's, foreclosures etc. He even stated that MVCD has been planning this for about 5-7 years and has been holding back inventory at the "sold out" resorts (HHI summer, ski weeks, NCV etc...) This was in esponse to "how do you guarantee a Trust purchaser wil get this stuff...

My rep tried to slip one by me. He stated that when a Legacy owner converts to DC or MR points, these units go in the "Trust". I said "no, sir..The Trust is a defined entity of MVCD owned units, pre deposited in Trust. Exchanged Legacy units go into the Exchange Company. He impied but did not state with certainty that MVCD woud give preferential access to the Exchange inventory to Trust point owners...

I think the reps have an easy job (despite price) of selling this product to newbies. It is just the "go wherever , whenever you wan" pitch. A bit harder selling to Legacy owners who occupy or very rarely trade. Reallly hard to sell to me, a customer that has Premier Plus already and has been successful playing "both sides of fence"...

As sated previously, I actually really liked my rep. We spent 2 hrs together. He offered me the exit , but I was having fun. I think he actually enjoyed (despite the no sale) talking the product with an expert...

 

[windje2000]

good afternoon....

My rep stated that MVCD controls the trust inventory that goes into the Exchange pool during the crossover.

He impied but did not state with certainty that MVCD woud give preferential access to the Exchange inventory to Trust point owners...

This adds to the point GregT made in an old post about the relationship between the Trust bucket and the Exchange bucket.

As I recall, Greg posted that when a Trust owner snags Exchange Co occupancy, Marriott will 'hang on' to Trust Inventory and compensate the Exchange Co with an IOU rather than immediately compensate the Exchange Co with equivalent Trust occupancy.

So not only does Marriott manage and control:

1. WHAT the Trust puts into the Exchange Co when a Trust owner obtains Exchange inventory per your conversation with the salesperson,

2. it also drags its heels and controls the TIMING of when it replaces that Exchange Co inventory. It uses Trust occupancy it perceives the Trust owners will not desire.

This is probably why DClub will never have request first for legacies.

TUGGERS report in other recent threads that Marriott is replacing strong reserved weeks when asked to deposit them into II. That activity also sheds light on the increasingly active management of exchange activities by Marriott.

I think we are seeing the tip of the iceberg regarding Marriott's venture into controlling the exchange of timeshare occupancy.

 

[puckmanfl]

good morning....

My rep pretty much stated that it is a rigged game, with the house holding all the cards!!!!
They are selling a new product, they have to make sure that the person off the street purchasing 5000 pts has aceess to a ski week before me or any other Legacy owner!!!

I do believe that once Trust points are sold at a higher level it will be more difficult for Legacy points to function....

The interesting feature of all this is that it is no longer in my interest to encourage newbies to purchase....It is actually beneficial to me to denigrate the product and prevent sales of Trust points...

 

[puckmanfl]

good morning...

p.s. I dont believe any of this. I think that my Legacy points will be good for a long time....

Interestingly, my rep did not give me any viable alternative into "supercharging" my points. he clearly stated that If I purchase 2000 pts. I would have 14K Legacy points and 2000 supercharged trust points.... I di ask "what preevnts MVCD fromchangingthe rules in the future". IOW, what prevents them form starting a "super trust" $15/pt access to the really good stuff!!! He said "we can always change the rules" so much for the " tomorrows vacation at todays prices"...

If he had stated thata purchase of 2K points supercharges all of your points and put it in writing I might have done it...

I believe that for the next few years Legacy Points= Trust points and the gap wil lnarrow not widen...

He did state only 18% of Legacy owners enrolled... I believe the demise of II as an option is greatly exxagerated..

 

[m61376]

good morning....

I do believe that once Trust points are sold at a higher level it will be more difficult for Legacy points to function....

The only reason I question this is that there are still many resorts where the bulk of inventory is not in the trust, and some resorts where no inventory is in the trust. Thus, for the trust owner to reserve a premium ski week or Caribbean week, for example, they must get it from the exchange pool. So even as more trust points are sold, I would expect there to be more exchanges into the legacy pool.

The only roadblock for legacy points is IF Marriott aggressively buys back legacy weeks to put them into the trust, but I don't see them needing to incur the expenditure when they can fulfill trust point requests with the exchange pool inventory, which means that legacy week owners will have commensurate access to trust inventory.

Since the best customers are repeat customers, I don't foresee them locking out legacy week owners from either a pr perspective or a business angle, since they can get the inventory without financial outlay by encouraging those trades.

In some ways, as more trust points are sold it may be better for legacy exchanges, since many of those trust points will be used for legacy (exchange) inventory and thus more of the trust inventory will necessarily go into the exchange pool, rather than now just sitting in the trust pool, where it is not accessible to legacy week owners until Marriott makes some last minute deposits. Any thoughts on this??

 

[puckmanfl]

good morning

M6....

all good points..this is why I don't really have anything to worry about it....

I think Legacy points will equal Trust points for many years to come....

back to the beach at Oceana Palms...

just a stunning resort!!!

 

[taffy19]

good morning...

watching the sun rise from my OF balcony on the 17th floor at Oceana palms...

Yes, I did snag a card from my "rep". However, since I have no intention of purchasing I don't feel that it is respectful for me to call and take up his time outside of my presentation, just to get more queries asked. I have no problem with spending 90 minutes during a presentation, since they invited me. I also tell every rep during my sessions that they are welcome to let me go early, if they have "something else to do". I told my rep that I would call him if I had a desire to purchase or was seriously considering a purchase...

Yes, My rep gave me the hard push about how they are actively filling the trust with ROFR's, foreclosures etc. He even stated that MVCD has been planning this for about 5-7 years and has been holding back inventory at the "sold out" resorts (HHI summer, ski weeks, NCV etc...) This was in esponse to "how do you guarantee a Trust purchaser wil get this stuff...

My rep tried to slip one by me. He stated that when a Legacy owner converts to DC or MR points, these units go in the "Trust". I said "no, sir..The Trust is a defined entity of MVCD owned units, pre deposited in Trust. Exchanged Legacy units go into the Exchange Company. He impied but did not state with certainty that MVCD woud give preferential access to the Exchange inventory to Trust point owners...

I think the reps have an easy job (despite price) of selling this product to newbies. It is just the "go wherever , whenever you wan" pitch. A bit harder selling to Legacy owners who occupy or very rarely trade. Reallly hard to sell to me, a customer that has Premier Plus already and has been successful playing "both sides of fence"...

As sated previously, I actually really liked my rep. We spent 2 hrs together. He offered me the exit , but I was having fun. I think he actually enjoyed (despite the no sale) talking the product with an expert...

I really enjoy reading your posts and we do not mind going on updates either. I always ask if they own Marriott timeshare themselves. If they are lying, we find out soon enough by asking a few more questions. They don't have to because Marriott lets them buy timeshares at a discounted price and some received the bronze weeks free that Marriott sold us for $1,500. This happens in other companies too and helps them sell so a good sales tool for the company.

I have noticed that the sales people who are owners too, are much more interested in the program and how to make the best exchanges and we talk about it. Some enrolled in the new DC program and were excited about it and certainly at the Maui resort because of the high point allocation. There was no pressure there at all because the next person would enroll and even buy Trust points too. It helps a lot when the salesmen own and are excited about the program.

I haven't met a salesman yet who bough a bunch of Trust points and I assume that they will get a discount here too but it has to be a very big one and mainly for people who want to confirm nightly stays with complete flexibility. Marriott has a big global market so the program will succeed but it would be nice if all resorts end up under one umbrella.

 

[taffy19]

good morning...

p.s. I dont believe any of this. I think that my Legacy points will be good for a long time....

Interestingly, my rep did not give me any viable alternative into "supercharging" my points. he clearly stated that If I purchase 2000 pts. I would have 14K Legacy points and 2000 supercharged trust points.... I di ask "what preevnts MVCD fromchangingthe rules in the future". IOW, what prevents them form starting a "super trust" $15/pt access to the really good stuff!!! He said "we can always change the rules" so much for the " tomorrows vacation at todays prices"...

If he had stated thata purchase of 2K points supercharges all of your points and put it in writing I might have done it...

I believe that for the next few years Legacy Points= Trust points and the gap wil lnarrow not widen...

He did state only 18% of Legacy owners enrolled... I believe the demise of II as an option is greatly exxagerated..

That is a lot lower percentage than we have heard them quoting at a few presentations last year. Interesting.

 

[FractionalTraveler]

The only reason I question this is that there are still many resorts where the bulk of inventory is not in the trust, and some resorts where no inventory is in the trust. Thus, for the trust owner to reserve a premium ski week or Caribbean week, for example, they must get it from the exchange pool. So even as more trust points are sold, I would expect there to be more exchanges into the legacy pool.

The only roadblock for legacy points is IF Marriott aggressively buys back legacy weeks to put them into the trust, but I don't see them needing to incur the expenditure when they can fulfill trust point requests with the exchange pool inventory, which means that legacy week owners will have commensurate access to trust inventory.

Since the best customers are repeat customers, I don't foresee them locking out legacy week owners from either a pr perspective or a business angle, since they can get the inventory without financial outlay by encouraging those trades.

In some ways, as more trust points are sold it may be better for legacy exchanges, since many of those trust points will be used for legacy (exchange) inventory and thus more of the trust inventory will necessarily go into the exchange pool, rather than now just sitting in the trust pool, where it is not accessible to legacy week owners until Marriott makes some last minute deposits. Any thoughts on this??

I have a slightly different perspective on these topics:

1. The exchange pool is relatively small since only about 25% of legacy owners actually enrolled in the ponts program. That pool IMHO will not continue to grow. That pool (2 years now) has basically reached its peak. Just wait until June 14th, when the enrollment fee goes to $2395!

2. As time goes on, Trust only customers will need access to premium weeks so Marriott will agressively add inventory via a number of different vehicles since they know that the exchange pool is limited and not growing enough to keep up with the demand. THE FUTURE IS THE TRUST NOT THE SMALL LIMITED EXCHANGE POOL.

3. I predict that by 2015-2016, the impact of the trust will be felt by all members and that the TRUST will have its own self-sustaining inventory. The trust will not be able to depend SOLEY on the limited supply of inventory from enrolled owners who may or may not decide to use points on any given use year. All new inventory will be added to the trust so legacy owners who don't eventually purchase trust points may be locked out.

4. Marriott gave legacy owners 2 full years to join the points system at a low fee of $595. In just another 75 days that fees goes up by 4 times. That's a clear signal to me that they are not banking on legacy week owners to move the program forward.

I'm certainly not saying I agree with this direction, but I simply recognize that's the strategy forward.

 

[GregT]

I have a slightly different perspective on these topics:

1. The exchange pool is relatively small since only about 25% of legacy owners actually enrolled in the ponts program. That pool IMHO will not continue to grow. That pool (2 years now) has basically reached its peak. Just wait until June 14th, when the enrollment fee goes to $2395!

2. As time goes on, Trust only customers will need access to premium weeks so Marriott will agressively add inventory via a number of different vehicles since they know that the exchange pool is limited and not growing enough to keep up with the demand. THE FUTURE IS THE TRUST NOT THE SMALL LIMITED EXCHANGE POOL.

3. I predict that by 2015-2016, the impact of the trust will be felt by all members and that the TRUST will have its own self-sustaining inventory. The trust will not be able to depend SOLEY on the limited supply of inventory from enrolled owners who may or may not decide to use points on any given use year. All new inventory will be added to the trust so legacy owners who don't eventually purchase trust points may be locked out.

4. Marriott gave legacy owners 2 full years to join the points system at a low fee of $595. In just another 75 days that fees goes up by 4 times. That's a clear signal to me that they are not banking on legacy week owners to move the program forward.

I'm certainly not saying I agree with this direction, but I simply recognize that's the strategy forward.

Fractional Traveler,

I agree with your thoughts, except that I believe it will be much longer until any exclusivity about the Trust is felt by Legacy Week owners. If 20 percent of Legacy week owners have enrolled, that most likely is 40 percent of the weeks - perhaps 300K weeks?

If Marriott is selling $160M per quarter since 6/10, that's 16M in point sold - approx 4K weeks sold per quarter.

So approx 32,000 weeks have been sold program to date (as Trust Points) - and 16,000 points are sold each year to come.

In 10 years, the points sold (as Trust Points) will finally exceed (barely) the Legacy weeks, which can only drop as owners sell/whatever and lose eligibility.

So I believe there is a long runway for Legacy Point users, but we will ultimately feel the squeeze based on whatever new rule Marriott introduces.

And you said it well - the future is in the Trust.

Best,

Greg

 

[FractionalTraveler]

Fractional Traveler,

I agree with your thoughts, except that I believe it will be much longer until any exclusivity about the Trust is felt by Legacy Week owners. If 20 percent of Legacy week owners have enrolled, that most likely is 40 percent of the weeks - perhaps 300K weeks?

If Marriott is selling $160M per quarter since 6/10, that's 16M in point sold - approx 4K weeks sold per quarter.

So approx 32,000 weeks have been sold program to date (as Trust Points) - and 16,000 points are sold each year to come.

In 10 years, the points sold (as Trust Points) will finally exceed (barely) the Legacy weeks, which can only drop as owners sell/whatever and lose eligibility.

So I believe there is a long runway for Legacy Point users, but we will ultimately feel the squeeze based on whatever new rule Marriott introduces.

And you said it well - the future is in the Trust.

Best,

Greg

Greg, Thanks!

You give us all hope with your detailed analysis!

But how does this analysis change (if at all), if Marriott begins to add to the trust much faster through Aquisition - i.e. ROFR, Other new properties, Competitors, Partnerships, etc.

Do you think we would theoretically have less than 10 years?

I gotta think they will agressively seek out new partnerships and select business opportunities to continue to feed the points monster in order to bolster top line revenue.

I love your analysis but it seems that the key assumption is that all things remain static.

How will they try to convince me to buy more points? By offering new products or restricting the use of the current product so that they force me into the purchase.

As an analogy, Microsoft forces me to upgrade into their new operating system just by announcing "end-of-life" support for their legacy version product.

How does BMW force me to always consider their latest product? Easy, they limit the warranty to a maximum of 6 years or 100K miles whichever comes first and then they make the cost of any post-warranty repair or maintenance astronomical. My oil change under warranty is free but valued at $79 by the dealer. As soon as I'm out of warranty, the cost is majically transformed to $300 for the exact same service.

I really hope its 10 years as your analysis has indicated, but my gut tells me that's too long for MVW.

 

[GregT]

Greg, Thanks!

You give us all hope with your detailed analysis!

But how does this analysis change (if at all), if Marriott begins to add to the trust much faster through Aquisition - i.e. ROFR, Other new properties, Competitors, Partnerships, etc.

Do you think we would theoretically have less than 10 years?

I gotta think they will agressively seek out new partnerships and select business opportunities to continue to feed the points monster in order to bolster top line revenue.

I love your analysis but it seems that the key assumption is that all things remain static.

How will they try to convince me to buy more points? By offering new products or restricting the use of the current product so that they force me into the purchase.

As an analogy, Microsoft forces me to upgrade into their new operating system just by announcing "end-of-life" support for their legacy version product.

How does BMW force me to always consider their latest product? Easy, they limit the warranty to a maximum of 6 years or 100K miles whichever comes first and then they make the cost of any post-warranty repair or maintenance astronomical. My oil change under warranty is free but valued at $79 by the dealer. As soon as I'm out of warranty, the cost is majically transformed to $300 for the exact same service.

I really hope its 10 years as your analysis has indicated, but my gut tells me that's too long for MVW.

Yes, its an interesting situation - I think where we will see the difference is not from the current portfolio of properties, but when Marriott adds a new property of limited size to the Trust - how quickly will that scarce property be made available to the Legacy Point user?

If a point is a point, then I'll be able to book it 13 months out - if not, then I have to Wailist until Marriott feels like matching my request. This is a reason I am skeptical of their claims about combining the trust pool and exchange pools (and their inventory management), is that it is not structured that way, just the way they choose to do it today.

We will see.

Best,

Greg

 

[puckmanfl]

Good morning

Reporting from the pool at the Palms

We are almost 2 years into DC. The new tower at the Palms is over a year away...construction juststarting in Vegas. Where are these alleged additions to Trust. Can't count ritz,not owned by Trust. The buzz of small purchase.s by Legacy owners is past. Just don't see tons of newbies forking over 25k for a 2500 pts package. The math just doesn't add up....


Think we will be fine for many years to come..If my product ever reaches end of life will sell my deeded units for $1 and be done....

 

[windje2000]

Yes, its an interesting situation - I think where we will see the difference is not from the current portfolio of properties, but when Marriott adds a new property of limited size to the Trust - how quickly will that scarce property be made available to the Legacy Point user?

If a point is a point, then I'll be able to book it 13 months out - if not, then I have to Wailist until Marriott feels like matching my request. This is a reason I am skeptical of their claims about combining the trust pool and exchange pools (and their inventory management), is that it is not structured that way, just the way they choose to do it today.

We will see.

Best,

Greg

Don't disagree, but I suspect that new, limited size property might have been pretty darn 'scarce' in the legacy II weeks system if DClub never happened. Though not as scarce as it will be with the advent of Dclub.

The VAC system appears to be evolving to a two (or more) tier resort system.

Trust first, enrolled legacies next, and everyone else.