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Gold, Silver, Real Estate and Crypto

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Crypto has become the showcase for grifters and conmen
In the last 6 months some pretty well-known people have decided it is a good way to enrich themselves by using their popularity to promote crypto pump and dump scams

The original crypto coin, Bitcoin created billionaires
If you were an early believer in the promise of a limited number of coins would ever be available
If you believed in the anonymous ability to conduct transactions outside of any of the world's government
If you mined a 1000 bitcoin in the first six months after the system was setup using your laptop
If you held on to these coins until today
You would have approximately $80,000,000 worth
That is 80 Million Dollars worth of Bitcoin
in the last 90 days there was a period of time that 1000 bitcoin was worth over a 100 million dollars
All easily sold at a bitcoin exchange
If you were so inclined, you could sell it and pay no taxes
Not that the tax man wouldn't like their share of the capital gain
But tracking down the owner is intense, requires major computing resources and expertise and a time-consuming process
Some Scam

IBM thought laptops were a joke
Missed out on a literal fortune
Handed it to some young visionary that had a better view of the future

Bitcoin was one of those same ideas
 
Carolinian said:
Don't remember who said it but I agree with the comment that "Crypto is a digital Ponzi scheme"
Click to expand...

They were talking about possibly revaluing gold and using those funds to purchase Bitcoin.

Bill
 
Here is a piece from the Financial Times of London arguing that Bitcoin is worse than a Madoff Ponzi scheme:

Why bitcoin is worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme

A Ponzi scheme is a zero-sum enterprise. But bitcoin is a negative-sum phenomenon that you can’t even pursue a claim against, argues Robert McCauley.
www.ft.com

Bitcon is a better term for it, buying air.
 
emeryjre said:
Behind a paywall
Click to expand...
You can gain access by registering an email address. I created a DoNotReply email on Gmail for just that purpose.
 
DrQ said:
You can gain access by registering an email address. I created a DoNotReply email on Gmail for just that purpose.
Click to expand...
I did not get that option
I only had the option to subscribe for a $1 a week for 4 weeks
 
emeryjre said:
I did not get that option
I only had the option to subscribe for a $1 a week for 4 weeks
Click to expand...
Register for "FT Alphaville" and you should get access.
 
I would also point out that under the Basel III banking standards, which most countries have already adopted, and laggard US will bring up the rear right at the deadlline, July 1, 2025, physical gold is a First Tier asset class, which means it is the highest and most solid type of asset a bank can hold. Crypto is NOT. Neither are stocks or non-governmental bonds.
 
DrQ said:
Register for "FT Alphaville" and you should get access.
Click to expand...
Thanks
Will try that when I get a chance
I am busy today handling the sale of my tulip bulb investment from last fall
I quadrupled my investment from September
The buyer is Dutch and is using Netherlands Antillean Guiders for payment
Bitcoin would have been far more convenient
 
One week results
S&P DOWN 12.14%
DOW DOWN 10.85%
Bitcoin DOWN 6.64%
Gold DOWN 1.71%
Silver DOWN 10.16%

Gold is the best performer in a downward market across all asset classes. When the stock market gets hit, margin calls there result in investors selling paper gold contracts to make the margin calls and that gives a window of buying opportunity in gold. However, the central banks also see a buying opportunity, so that usually is only a brief buying opportunity.

The other monetary metal, silver, almost always is more volatile than gold. Unlike gold, it is not a tier one asset class under Basel III, and is held by only a handful of central banks. The big one that has been accumulating silver recently, the Russian central bank, is subject to sanctions and therefore does not impact the market much. It is also an industrial metal as well as a monetary metal and thus impacted by a number of economic factors. Its use in wind turbines and solar panels, most of which are made in China, means big tariffs on China have an impact on its price. Of course, so does war, since it also has a lot of military uses. There is a lot of silver in the guidance system of a cruise missile, for example. The one constant in recent years has been that demand exceeds mine supply and that imbalance has been growing year after year.

This buying opportunity, we have gone all silver, and pulled the trigger within 8 cents of its lowest point. It is already up over a dollar from where we bought in. My analysis is that the upside in silver right now, in percentage terms, is higher than in gold although Deursche Bank just came out with a $3.450 target price on gold.
 
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Carolinian said:
One week results
S&P DOWN 12.14%
DOW DOWN 10.85%
Bitcoin DOWN 6.64%
Gold DOWN 1.71%
Silver DOWN 10.16%

Gold is the best performer in a downward market across all asset classes. When the stock market gets hit, margin calls there result in investors selling paper gold contracts to make the margin calls and that gives a window of buying opportunity in gold. However, the central banks also see a buying opportunity, so that usually is only a brief buying opportunity.

The other monetary metal, silver, almost always is more volatile than gold. Unlike gold, it is not a tier one asset class under Basel III, and is held by only a handful of central banks. The big one that has been accumulating silver recently, the Russian central bank, is subject to sanctions and therefore does not impact the market much. It is also an industrial metal as well as a monetary metal and thus impacted by a number of economic factors. Its use in wind turbines and solar panels, most of which are made in China, means big tariffs on China have an impact on its price. Of course, so does war, since it also has a lot of military uses. There is a lot of silver in the guidance system of a cruise missile, for example. The one constant in recent years has been that demand exceeds mine supply and that imbalance has been growing year after year.

This buying opportunity, we have gone all silver, and pulled the trigger within 8 cents of its lowest point. It is already up over a dollar from where we bought in. My analysis is that the upside in silver right now, in percentage terms, is higher than in gold although Deursche Bank just came out with a $3.450 target price on gold.
Click to expand...


One day results -

dow.jpg


..

Gold vs Stocks

gold_stock.jpg


https://www.macrotrends.net/2608/gold-price-vs-stock-market-100-year-chart
.
 
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Don't remember who said it but I agree with the comment that "Crypto is a digital Ponzi scheme"
Click to expand...
Elon Musk himself admitted on national television that crypto was, indeed, a hustle.
 
amycurl said:
Elon Musk himself admitted on national television that crypto was, indeed, a hustle.
Click to expand...
I guess EM's role in the Doge Meme Coin gave him some experience
Doge Meme Coin has no relationship to EM's role at DOGE

A roundup of the Doge Meme Coin and EM's role

Elon Musk and Dogecoin: How the Billionaire Became the 'Dogefather' - Decrypt

Dogecoin was once a joke, but the meme coin gained traction after Elon Musk backed it. Now he's leading DOGE under Trump. Here's a look back.
decrypt.co
 
Gold is solidly over $3,200 as the all time highs continue.

With the latest market roller coaster, the Year to Date numbers for 2025 are:
Gold UP 22.51%
Silver UP 8.89%
Bitcoin DOWN 15.77%
S&P DOWN 10.23%
Dow DOWN 6.6%

Gold is the best performing asset among them and Crypto the worst.
 
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Are stocks already overbought and in bubble territory? Maybe. We will see. Meanwhile, the appetite of the world's central banks for gold just keeps increasing as they carefully and slowly dump dollars. The world's investment banks keep raising the price targets for gold, including recently Deutsche Bank and Goldman-Sachs and they are all long gold for their own book. Goldman-Sachs has even laid out a scenario where gold may reach $4.500 this year.
 
Brett said:
But when the madness and mayhem stops -

View attachment 109005
https://www.macrotrends.net/2608/gold-price-vs-stock-market-100-year-chart
Click to expand...
Brett, a better gold/stock comparison is not what you show, but to divide the gold return into the stock return. A roughly a 4 to 1 return in favor of stocks. Using dollars as a yardstick gives absurd investment return. (The yardstick keeps shrinking. A dollar today is worth about 1.1 cents in 1955 (based on gold. Based on silver, about 4 cents). . . )
 
Ralph Sir Edward said:
Brett, a better gold/stock comparison is not what you show, but to divide the gold return into the stock return. A roughly a 4 to 1 return in favor of stocks. Using dollars as a yardstick gives absurd investment return. (The yardstick keeps shrinking. A dollar today is worth about 1.1 cents in 1955 (based on gold. Based on silver, about 4 cents). . . )
Click to expand...

Actually much higher but hey, who's counting.
The important point is the S&P companies pay dividends each quarter and (holds indirectly) interest and RE so S&P reinvested returns over time will far exceed any gold or silver held in your mom's basement.

.

40 years_invest.jpg

.
return_bonds_stocks.jpg
 
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Brett said:
Actually much higher but hey, who's counting.
The important point is the S&P companies pay dividends each quarter and (holds indirectly) interest and RE so S&P reinvested returns over time will far exceed any gold or silver held in your mom's basement.

.

View attachment 109018
.
View attachment 109019
Click to expand...
All cash flow gets taxed (outside of IRA/401Ks), doesn't it? So shouldn't that tax being paid be deducted from the compounding?
 
Ralph Sir Edward said:
Brett, a better gold/stock comparison is not what you show, but to divide the gold return into the stock return. A roughly a 4 to 1 return in favor of stocks. Using dollars as a yardstick gives absurd investment return. (The yardstick keeps shrinking. A dollar today is worth about 1.1 cents in 1955 (based on gold. Based on silver, about 4 cents). . . )
Click to expand...

It is also interesting that the graph he repeatedly posts (I thought there was a rule against that here) ends in 2024. The numbers I have been posting and I keep updating to current are 2025 Year to Date. Notice the difference?

While our precious metals holdings are our secondary investment for diversification, our primary investment, residential rental real estate, is also doing better than the stock market. Our real estate appreciation has been roughly similar to precious metals plus rental income is now running at about 20% per year of the amount we invested in the properties.
 
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