I think there's a lot of economic doomerism and has been for years now, since COVID. I don't actually believe the economy is anywhere near as bad as some claim. I don't see many signs of people thinking there's a downturn, and I live in a not super well to do area of NY. I still see new businesses starting, and the ones that are closing are usually people retiring that could not get anyone to buy them out or want to take over a business that has worked for 20+ years.
I see report after report both on the news and personally of people getting raises. I think the big "crunch" was planned by the Fed to "stop inflation" via somewhat high interest rates.
Digression[Compounded by absolute greed in credit card companies making it worse. I remember in 2014 higher end rewards cards did prime plus 12% or so. Now it's got to be prime plus 21%, with good credit. Add on to that the various companies adding 3-4% for taking a card and I see where people who generally live on credit (and have for IDK, 45 years or so if you believe the news) feel a pinch along with inflation. Given the greed of pretty much all companies lately under the cover of "inflation" and now "high interest rates", I wonder if cards etc will go down as the prime rate goes down? I think personal loans probably will, for whatever reason there seems to be way more competition on the interest rates there vs for credit cards. And as small businesses are trying to move backwards towards cash, I expect smarter people will gravitate to older styles of debt a la personal loans as their rates drop where many cards probably won't.]
None of the above speaks to much of a ongoing major shift economically IMO. I think it seems likely that the fed will start trying some small rate cuts to keep working on their attempt at a "soft landing". I also think like most inflation of the past, people will eventually become accustomed to the newer higher prices especially if wages catch up. We also keep seeing additional efficiencies as low skill low wage jobs get automated and people move to different positions.
I also don't see people giving up on travel. As my millennial cohort has gotten older, they've been doing more trips - mainly due to improved earnings and jobs with actual vacation time and / or WFH. Granted, I'm lucky and mostly interact with traditional middle class people with college degrees.
I still think the main problem timeshares have is their sales model and the problems that come from that. The Internet has made it harder to completely hide information, and so far Timeshares don't seem to really flood the zone online with bullcrap to confuse people. They do all that in person in the sales meetings. Millennials an younger are more online and actively avoid more in person interactions, so I think to even get someone in the room is going to take more work than it used to. I think some of the attempts to do Zoom presentations and more online e-mail etc contacts are perhaps trying to navigate this change in younger generations preferences.
I think the bigger problem with smaller timeshares is not only people aging out, it's again the market change - the only people I know who want to go back to the same place every year are either over 65+ or have family and tend to stay with those family.
Like so many things, I think the timeshare companies are going to pull a Kodak and just not want to change their strategy cause they're still making tons of money (never mind from a shrinking owner base) until the whole paradigm changes and they go bust. They could change their model, they just don't want to. TBH I don't think AirB&B is the competitor so many think it is. I think it might end up being the "long stay" hotel chains, if they can keep their costs down.
....... Wait maybe bargain is the wrong word...
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