Earthquakes , floods, tidal waves, storms

[Carol C]

Our neighbors who work for the Dept. of Agriculture and get sent all over Florida were just telling us last night about Sarasota being such a great place to live weather wise. When I tried to find out more about what they were saying this is what I found.

"There is a legend that locals here know (and some believe) that when the state was inhabited by Indian tribes they would travel here during hurricane season (it obviously wasn't called that back then but they knew what time of year the storms would come in) because they saw it as being a safe haven. They have Indian burial grounds here and that is a legend that is told to explain why we haven't been directly hit by a hurricane in a long time. Now, science explains that our bay is so small that we don't “pull” the storms toward us in the same ways that Tampa, Naples, Miami, and places on the other coast do. Take your pick and do your own research but, I have lived here since 1988 and consider myself a local (I was born in ‘87, so I grew up here) and that is my understanding" This was posted by Kimberly Woodruff.

"Before we moved to Sarasota in 1987, I got a map showing all hurricane tracks back to 1900, and it showed only 3 even close. The traditional track from Africa means that the storm would have to do a 180 degree turn to come in over the gulf. We came close in 2004 when Charlie was headed for us. It turned up the Peace River (they like to follow waterways) and hit Punta Gorda and Charlotte Harbor in a major blow." John MacKay of Sarasota posted that.

I just wonder if Indian legend looked to the past and didnt anticipate a future where climate change presents unique challenges. Even deniers might see the video and photos showing glacier melt and acknowledge sea level rise and sea temperature rise. I hope the Indians are prophetic and always right...but to me Florida is a roll of the dice and as much a magnet for hurricanes as the Carolinas coast. Thanks for posting your surprising reply.

 

[Jan M.]

I just wonder if Indian legend looked to the past and didnt anticipate a future where climate change presents unique challenges. Even deniers might see the video and photos showing glacier melt and acknowledge sea level rise and sea temperature rise. I hope the Indians are prophetic and always right...but to me Florida is a roll of the dice and as much a magnet for hurricanes as the Carolinas coast. Thanks for posting your surprising reply.

If you read all of what the first person I quoted said, she goes on to say that there is a scientific explanation for it, not just Indian lore.

 

[Brett]

If you read all of what the first person I quoted said, she goes on to say that there is a scientific explanation for it, not just Indian lore.

yes but google "hurricanes sarasota myth" - that old Indian lore is ........ myth

“It’s like a lot of urban myths; there’s no origin, but somehow everyone knows it,” Baram said. “It really tells us two things. One, we are very worried about hurricanes. And two, we wonder why we’re lucky.”

 

[Jan M.]

yes but google "hurricanes sarasota myth" - that old Indian lore is ........ myth

“It’s like a lot of urban myths; there’s no origin, but somehow everyone knows it,” Baram said. “It really tells us two things. One, we are very worried about hurricanes. And two, we wonder why we’re lucky.”

Anyone who lives in a coastal area of Florida, particularly either of the Southern coasts and isn't aware and concerned about hurricanes needs their head examined. In this case the person did state that there is a scientific explanation to why Sarasota is less susceptible to hurricanes. And as the next person I quoted stated, he checked the records back to 1900 and only 3 hurricane tracks came even close to Sarasota. Over a 117 years of records is pretty substantial data.

Between hurricanes, tropical depressions, cyclones, Nor'easters, tornadoes, lightning storms, floods, droughts, fires, dust storms, extreme heat, heavy snow storms, ice storms, sub zero temperatures, avalanches, volcanos and probably a few other things my list missed, where are you 100% safe? And that doesn't even take into account the cost of living and crime rate when you are looking at places to live.

Older people to do better in warmer climates where they can stay active 12 months a year. Many of us who live in Florida find when we go for a week or longer to some other parts of the country that we have aches and pains we didn't even know we had.

 

[Brett]

Anyone who lives in a coastal area of Florida, particularly either of the Southern coasts and isn't aware and concerned about hurricanes needs their head examined. In this case the person did state that there is a scientific explanation to why Sarasota is less susceptible to hurricanes. And as the next person I quoted stated, he checked the records back to 1900 and only 3 hurricane tracks came even close to Sarasota. Over a 117 years of records is pretty substantial data.

Between hurricanes, tropical depressions, cyclones, Nor'easters, tornadoes, lightning storms, floods, droughts, fires, dust storms, extreme heat, heavy snow storms, ice storms, sub zero temperatures, avalanches, volcanos and probably a few other things my list missed, where are you 100% safe? And that doesn't even take into account the cost of living and crime rate when you are looking at places to live.

Older people to do better in warmer climates where they can stay active 12 months a year. Many of us who live in Florida find when we go for a week or longer to some other parts of the country that we have aches and pains we didn't even know we had.

I'll take it you didn't google "hurricanes Sarasota myth"
hey, it's alright to believe old Indian myths and/or the hurricane repelling crystals in the Sarasota sand …………. just don't cancel your homeowners insurance !

 

[easyrider]

So I did google "hurricaness Sarasota myth" and the first page of articles claim that Sarasota is protected or has been known to be safe from storms by the Natives that inhabited the area for as long as they can remember. It is interesting that some areas of the world are known to be somewhat free of bad weather. It doesn't surprise me that people would figure out where these places are through out time.

A tribe on the Olympic Peninsula was told to move their village. The interesting thing about this is the whales told them. This happened only a few years ago. The tribe did move their village but jaded me thinks it was to open the ocean front to develop a casino in this case.

Meanwhile, Mankhut did hit China and displaced between 2.5 and 3 million people.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/16/asia/typhoon-mangkhut-china-hong-kong-intl/index.html

Bill

 

[Jan M.]

I'll take it you didn't google "hurricanes Sarasota myth"
hey, it's alright to believe old Indian myths and/or the hurricane repelling crystals in the Sarasota sand …………. just don't cancel your homeowners insurance !

Instead of just Googling articles that aim to disprove the myth, try Googling "why is Sarasota so safe from hurricanes".

Why is Sarasota usually spared?
A recent article by the Herald-Tribune examined many myths on how Sarasota is able to typically ward off hurricanes, including Native American folklore. The graph below shows only five hurricane strength storms have tracked within 35 miles of downtown Sarasota. This is remarkably low compared to the east coast of Florida and other parts of the Gulf of Mexico. Could crystals really be keeping Sarasota safe?

There is a more likely, and more scientific, reason why hurricanes do not make it to Sarasota. The typical tracks (image below, credit: NOAA) during September show a northwest moving ‘hurricane highway’ through the Bahamas and the Yucatan Channel. Then, the hurricane curves towards the northeast. Notice the “hole” in tracks over Cuba. Cuba is a major inhibitor of tropical systems. The increased elevation of the mountains disrupts the moist low level inflow. This is the hurricane’s lifeblood. The curve of the prevailing track to hit Sarasota (dashed white line) would have to proceed over most of Cuba, significantly weakening any storm (and possibly altering track). Therefore, a direct hit to Sarasota requires an unlikely sharp curve towards the east. Another scenario often seen is a landfall on the east coast of Florida, weakening the storm, and preventing Sarasota from getting the worst of it.

Another site had this to say:

There are some theories and local superstitions as to why the city of Sarasota has not had a direct hit from a storm since record keeping began back in 1871; the wildest one has to do with American Indian Spirits that still protect the area. These are what are known as “Urban Legends.” The record books say that Sarasota did take on varying degrees of damage from hurricanes in 1926, 1944 and 1950. Others say that the Sarasota area is safe due to Mother Nature’s placement of the sand dunes on the coastal beaches, or the magic powers of Siesta Key’s white sand beaches and underwater crystals. Whatever reason people believe, we have stayed safe from these potentially monster storms along the Sarasota Sun Coast for quite a number of years.


If you are curious about how Sarasota survived Irma, here are 4 links that explain what happened, the legend of our Sarasota’s storm safety, and its history with hurricanes.

1. An explanation about why Sarasota “lucked out”, from Sarasota Magazine, and
2. Prevailing hurricane tracks throw up significant road blocks for Sarasota in BestWeatherInc.
3. A Herald Tribune article from 2007 on the Sarasota storm-safety legend…
4. An article about historic hurricanes from the past found at SarasotaHistoryAlive

 

[Jan M.]

Meanwhile, Mankhut did hit China and displaced between 2.5 and 3 million people.

When you first mentioned Mangkhut last week I started reading about it and followed up after Mangkhut hit. As bad as it is if Hong Kong and Macau had taken the direct hit that predictions were showing it would have been even worse. If Mangkhut made the news here we've missed it. That made me realize how much we are missing when we watch the local news programs.

 

[Brett]

Instead of just Googling articles that aim to disprove the myth, try Googling "why is Sarasota so safe from hurricanes".
Why is Sarasota usually spared?
A recent article by the Herald-Tribune examined many myths on how Sarasota is able to typically ward off hurricanes, including Native American folklore. The graph below shows only five hurricane strength storms have tracked within 35 miles of downtown Sarasota. This is remarkably low compared to the east coast of Florida and other parts of the Gulf of Mexico. Could crystals really be keeping Sarasota safe?

There is a more likely, and more scientific, reason why hurricanes do not make it to Sarasota. The typical tracks (image below, credit: NOAA) during September show a northwest moving ‘hurricane highway’ through the Bahamas and the Yucatan Channel. Then, the hurricane curves towards the northeast. Notice the “hole” in tracks over Cuba. Cuba is a major inhibitor of tropical systems. The increased elevation of the mountains disrupts the moist low level inflow. This is the hurricane’s lifeblood. The curve of the prevailing track to hit Sarasota (dashed white line) would have to proceed over most of Cuba, significantly weakening any storm (and possibly altering track). Therefore, a direct hit to Sarasota requires an unlikely sharp curve towards the east. Another scenario often seen is a landfall on the east coast of Florida, weakening the storm, and preventing Sarasota from getting the worst of it.
Another site had this to say:

There are some theories and local superstitions as to why the city of Sarasota has not had a direct hit from a storm since record keeping began back in 1871; the wildest one has to do with American Indian Spirits that still protect the area. These are what are known as “Urban Legends.” The record books say that Sarasota did take on varying degrees of damage from hurricanes in 1926, 1944 and 1950. Others say that the Sarasota area is safe due to Mother Nature’s placement of the sand dunes on the coastal beaches, or the magic powers of Siesta Key’s white sand beaches and underwater crystals. Whatever reason people believe, we have stayed safe from these potentially monster storms along the Sarasota Sun Coast for quite a number of years.
If you are curious about how Sarasota survived Irma, here are 4 links that explain what happened, the legend of our Sarasota’s storm safety, and its history with hurricanes.
1. An explanation about why Sarasota “lucked out”, from Sarasota Magazine, and
2. Prevailing hurricane tracks throw up significant road blocks for Sarasota in BestWeatherInc.
3. A Herald Tribune article from 2007 on the Sarasota storm-safety legend…
4. An article about historic hurricanes from the past found at SarasotaHistoryAlive

you're getting it !

Virginia Beach and Maryland are "protected" from hurricanes

Indian myths? or North Carolina "catching" the hurricanes before they reach Virginia ?
Or maybe a Virginia Beach televangelist "media mogul" prays to protect Virginia Beach (where his college and broadcasting are located)
.... it works

 

[Carol C]

you're getting it !

View attachment 8272

Virginia Beach and Maryland are "protected" from hurricanes

Indian myths? or North Carolina "catching" the hurricanes before they reach Virginia ?
Or maybe a Virginia Beach televangelist "media mogul" prays to protect Virginia Beach (where his college and broadcasting are located)
.... it works

Or maybe its a spell cast by the Cayce Institute in the VA Beach area. Protective omelets or something?

 

[easyrider]

Here is a video of the tornado that touched down in Richmond Virginia yesterday.

 

[easyrider]

Articles suggest that a new class of storm , cat 6 , may be needed because of higher wind speeds.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/category-6-hurricane-saffir-simpson-wind-scale

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-hurricane-strenth-20180707-story.html

These potential Category 6 hurricanes may be up to 14 times more likely by 2100, according to the study.

The worst-case potential future hurricane put out by the climate models for the Tampa Bay area is unlike anything ever seen – maximum sustained winds of 233 mph with a minimum central pressure of 830 millibars, traveling parallel along Florida's Gulf Coast, producing a devastating 36-foot storm surge.

 

[easyrider]

This weekend there was a m7.5 near Palu Indonesia that caused a tsunami that really devastated the region.

https://earthquake-report.com/2018/...nahassa-peninsula-sulawesi-september-28-2018/

I see the major news networks have picked the story up. This morning there was footage shown on ABC.

https://abc7ny.com/death-toll-tops-800-from-indonesia-earthquake-and-tsunami/4375827/

 

[easyrider]

Hurricane Michael slammed Florida. Some of the pictures and videos show how powerful this storm was. The airport in Panama City is under water.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/11/us/hurricane-michael-tropical-storm-wxc/index.html

Interesting is that Sarasota only had minor flooding.

https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/...-flood-hurricane-michael-and-high-tide-blamed

I had thought about buying property in Florida but because of the frequency of storms decided not to. Maybe Sarasota.

Bill

 

[Makai Guy]

We dodge our second hurricane bullet in a month here in Aiken, SC.

First we were only touched by the southwest outer fringes of Florence in September. It turned abruptly north just in time to keep it from getting any worse here. Maybe 2" of rain and our power didn't even flicker.

Michael rushed through here this morning after it made its eastward turn. The center passed just a few miles to our north. Fortunately it had diminished significantly by the time it got here. Our gauge only collected about 3" of rain and the wind doesn't seem to have caused any major damage.

Our hearts and prayers go out to those in Florida and Georgia whose lives have been turned upside down by the fury of the storm in its earlier stages. And we hope the speed with which Michael is now moving over the area flooded by Florence a month ago will keep it from adding significant amounts of rain in those areas.

 

[easyrider]

We dodge our second hurricane bullet in a month here in Aiken, SC.

First we were only touched by the southwest outer fringes of Florence in September. It turned abruptly north just in time to keep it from getting any worse here. Maybe 2" of rain and our power didn't even flicker.

Michael rushed through here this morning after it made its eastward turn. The center passed just a few miles to our north. Fortunately it had diminished significantly by the time it got here. Our gauge only collected about 3" of rain and the wind doesn't seem to have caused any major damage.

Our hearts and prayers go out to those in Florida and Georgia whose lives have been turned upside down by the fury of the storm in its earlier stages. And we hope the speed with which Michael is now moving over the area flooded by Florence a month ago will keep it from adding significant amounts of rain in those areas.

I'm glad your ok. I hope that the recovery for the region is fast. Are these storms fairly common ? I know that the power of this last one is not common but I thought that storms in general happen in the South East fairly often.

Bill

 

[Makai Guy]

Are these storms fairly common ?

We're located in western South Carolina, almost to the Georgia border.

Most hurricanes run along the coast and don't affect us much. Most of the ones coming through or near here make landfall in the gulf coast and then track northeast over land so that they've weakened considerably by the time they get here.

Florence was the exception that hit on the Atlantic coast and came straight west toward us. It was very slow moving and rain laden but turned north just in time to miss us.

We've been here since 2004 and we've only had four that have come near us:

• Alberto, June 2006
• Matthew, October 2016
• Florence, September 2018
• Michael, October 2018

Looking back through the historical record, two in one year is highly unusual. It will be interesting to see if the trend to increasing frequency continues, or if it's just a statistical anomaly.